Post BAZPw6JhvKrNrJHh0C by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
 (DIR) More posts by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
 (DIR) Post #BAZPtj1BZphR1IUKDw by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
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       @pmdj @david_chisnall I thought sunk cost fallacy was like:1. Doing A will take X amount of effort, and it's worth it2. I've spent X amount of effort doing A and it's not done yet, an unknown amount of effort Y is needed to finish it.3. If I knew it's gonna take X+Y effort I wouldn't've started4. If I quit now, I will have spent X effort for nothing, so it'll be a waste5. X was high, therefore no matter how high Y is, I must finish doing A.
       
 (DIR) Post #BAZPw6JhvKrNrJHh0C by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
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       @pmdj @david_chisnall with a variation of 5. X was high, so surely A is almost done, and Y can't be very high at this point
       
 (DIR) Post #BAZlMfqOYTPibx5OPg by pmdj@mstdn.social
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       @wolf480pl @david_chisnall As I understand it, it covers any instance of investing further capital, effort, time, even emotions, etc. into something after already having invested a considerable amount, in the hope of saving the prior investment from being in vain, in spite of it being plainly irrational to do so. (Because it has become clear the expected return is zero or worth much less than the prior or subsequent investment.)
       
 (DIR) Post #BAZlsqAXhcKVtrqdea by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
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       @pmdj @david_chisnall More-or-less.The game-theoretically correct version of point 5 is to ignore how much you've invested so far, and only compare the remaining investment needed vs the reward.So it doesn't matter if the reward is worth less than the stuff you've invested so far.It's a sunken-cost-fallacy fallacy to think the more you've invested so far, the more you should keep going.It's a different fallacy to think the less you've invested so far, the more you should keep going.
       
 (DIR) Post #BAZm1udMTJJSLzeabA by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
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       @pmdj @david_chisnall (of course you can and should update your estimate of how much investment is still needed based on how much you missed the mark on the investment so far)