Post B1kDuHQl7uO2i8CGRM by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
(DIR) More posts by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
(DIR) Post #B1kDuA1gejAjkLPdtA by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T06:41:09Z
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THREAD: on Friday, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel would recognize Somaliland, an autonomous breakaway republic in northern Somalia, as an independent state.This makes Israel the first state to officially recognize Somaliland, since it's 1991 declaration of independence.What is this all about? I have some theories.https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-recognises-somaliland-somalias-breakway-region-independent-state-2025-12-26/
(DIR) Post #B1kDuBVr82tmMCXFYG by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T06:44:36Z
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European colonizers carved up the Somali territories, with Britain, France and Italy all taking portions and leaving a segment for Ethiopia.Formerly a British colony , the newly independent Somaliland voted to join the larger country, formerly an Italian colony, in 1960, creating the modern day Somalia we know today. But it was a tumultuous unity. Eventually a decade long Somaliland war of independence culminated in independence and the declaration of Hargeisa as the capital of Somaliland.
(DIR) Post #B1kDuCmYPRqkIHM6DY by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T06:48:44Z
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But despite > 3 decades of relative stability, a functioning democracy (the only one in the region) & diplomatic ties with the likes of Taiwan, no country was willing to become the first to recognize Somaliland. Many supported the concept of an independent Somaliland, but perhaps the fear of reciprocal actions, the emboldening of other self declared independent entities, or triggering a breakdown of the sovereignty based world order...meant until Friday, no UN members would make the first move.
(DIR) Post #B1kDuDsGLi0hgH2Akq by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T06:53:49Z
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However, regional powers have been contemplating it for years with Somaliland strategically placed off the Gulf of Aden, in front of the Bab al-Mandeb strait which leads into the Red Sea.On New Year's Day 2024, Ethiopia announced it had signed an agreement with Somaliland to recognize its independence in exchange for a naval base off its coast.It's unclear to what extent Ethiopia, a client state of the UAE, acted on its own volition.My story on that for Al Jazeera:https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/1/4/ambiguous-ethiopia-port-deal-fuels-uncertainty-over-somaliland-statehood
(DIR) Post #B1kDuEOWPloZIK7w2K by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T06:58:50Z
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I like to say that I foresaw Israel's move. I hinted it here, at the tail end of my Al Jazeera article written almost two years ago. Millions of barrels of crude oil pass daily through the Bab al-Mandeb strait. The number has been greatly reduced by Houthi attacks since Israel's war on Gaza began. Israeli, UK and US vessels are attacked with regularity. Israel seeks a permanent solution to the Houthi threat. An allied base off Somaliland, would deal with the threat far more efficiently.
(DIR) Post #B1kDuEokqEnYbgOsvQ by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:03:00Z
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And we would learn this year just how serious Israel was about this. A Middle East Eye investigation revealed that Israel coordinated extensively with the UAE to set up numerous military installations off the Gulf of Aden, including Somaliland...a joint initiative since October 2023. Since these were constructed in Somaliland but without Somalia's consent, under international law the endeavour is illegal. A solution for this would be severing Somaliland from Somalia.https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/uae-yemen-somalia-circle-bases-control-gulf-of-aden
(DIR) Post #B1kDuFZu0wVoxuSXPk by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:05:58Z
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This is likely why Israel was a quiet supporter of Ethiopia's controversial 2024 port agreement: Somalia's government has always been robustly pro-Palestinian and would never entertain Israeli presence in its territory.But Somaliland was clearly a potential friend of Tel Aviv. The hope was that following Ethiopia, a cascade of nations would follow suit and recognize Somaliland, with Israel & likely the UAE joining in eventually. Somalia was deemed too divided to fend off Ethiopia's advances.
(DIR) Post #B1kDuFlxI89ZZI6ACW by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:10:15Z
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But that's not what transpired. Ethiopia miscalculated things greatly. Somalia launched a successful diplomatic offensive, that resulted in condemnation of Ethiopia by among others, the US, EU and AU. It also signed military defense pacts with Egypt and Turkiye, allowing these to patrol its waters and protect it from the Ethiopian threat, something Ethiopia had not anticipated. Israel likely banked on gaining a foothold in the region via an Ethiopian proxy. It then had to amend its plans.
(DIR) Post #B1kDuGLl90nFMKql0a by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:13:30Z
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Netanyahu did state that the decision to recognize Somaliland came after extensive dialogue. This is supported by news reports that came out this year. According to the AP, Somaliland was approached by Israel/US, asked to contemplate hosting millions of Palestinians in the case of Trump pushing on with his widely denounced "Gaza Riviera" plans. If Somaliland was asked to facilitate ethnic cleansing, it should give us an idea of how in depth these talks were. https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-trump-somaliland-sudan-somalia-575e03aaa0c487bae2fbadfdef8f5ca3
(DIR) Post #B1kDuGYWNZ09zuowts by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:17:25Z
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Meanwhile, a week before Netanyahu's recognition of Somaliland, Israeli newspaper "The Times of Israel" reported that Marco Rubio had recently approached Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed and asked him to contribute troops to a proposed international Gaza stabilization force. It is unclear what Abiy answered, but it is possible that Abiy, who has long been desperate for landlocked Ethiopia to gain a coast, may have asked for sea access...something Israel may be in a position to enable via Somaliland.
(DIR) Post #B1kDuHAo5DctuejWZk by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:21:01Z
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Abiy Ahmed has been desperate for sea access, even threatening his neighbours with war over it...something I wrote about here in Nov 2023.Israel and the US, who are seeking troop contributing countries for their Gaza initiative, may be dangling sea access in negotiations with Ethiopia. Having failed to secure access via its 2024 agreement, a second go, this time with the support of powerful allies in Israel and the US could prove enticing.https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/11/7/is-landlocked-ethiopia-starting-another-war-over-ports-in-horn-of-africa
(DIR) Post #B1kDuHQl7uO2i8CGRM by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:24:10Z
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Of course, some of this amounts to speculation. But we did openly speculate that Ethiopia's port agreement in 2024, corresponding with Houthi rocket attacks against Israeli interests in the Red Sea...could lead to Israel taking concrete action to establish a permanent presence off the Gulf of Aden to counter that threat. And I'm one for one so far. After all, even prior to the Gaza onslaught and the Houthi rocket attacks, Israel always sought to nullify Iranian influence in the region.
(DIR) Post #B1kDuHnnkEonrayfM8 by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:28:28Z
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Israeli's Somaliland move will bring many global & regional powers into direct diplomatic confrontation with each other. Turkiye & Egypt are both fervently pro Somalia and have come out against Israel's move. China has no love lost for Somaliland, due to its recognition of Taiwan. Qatar and the KSA are among those jostling for influence in the region, and feel uneasy about the UAE, Israel's silent partner, outdoing them in the Horn. And of course, Iran can't be happy with what has transpired.
(DIR) Post #B1kDuI80X6yusGQnqq by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:32:35Z
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N.B...the goal of this thread is not to discuss whether the concept of Somaliland's independence is legitimate or not. It's not for me to say, nor is it relevant here. If someone isn't speaking in a scholarly/legal capacity, discussing the role of colonial era treaties in international law and the right of peoples to pursue self determination...it is then a conversation primarily for Somalis. Or pundits. I am neither. Bare facts: as of now, international law supports Somalia's position.
(DIR) Post #B1kDuISDJz91svswLY by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:34:40Z
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Politics of sovereignty aside, what ought to worry everyone, whether they hail from the region or not is this: two states infamous for enabling/perpetrating genocide in Gaza & Darfur plan to exponentially expand their political (and likely military) footprint in the Horn of Africa.This should concern us the way westerners fear Russian expansion anywhere.And not concern as in "we are gravely concerned," from the diplomatic statement template.
(DIR) Post #B1kDuIkIElben0LNWi by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:36:00Z
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Anyhoo, I'm working on an investigation that will further address Israeli actions in Africa, that as a result of Netanyahu's Friday declaration, is suddenly very timely. I hope it will clarify some more things for us all.I'll be sharing it here when it comes out sometime in January...where else but Al Jazeera obviously. Thanks, -ZZ.
(DIR) Post #B1kDuJHGGBygRFlhui by amerika@annihilation.social
2025-12-29T15:17:19.671402Z
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@ZekuZelalem I would like freedom from middle eastern religions.
(DIR) Post #B1kE3Pp7I8B5LZwhzE by CattleBaron@noauthority.social
2025-12-29T14:47:54Z
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@ZekuZelalem probably agreed to take bodies out of gaza.
(DIR) Post #B1kE3R5SaqqTGYbH6G by amerika@annihilation.social
2025-12-29T15:19:18.819924Z
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@CattleBaron @ZekuZelalem He never saw your post because his instance blocks yours.
(DIR) Post #B1kE8VLGCY3buUPKK0 by Zergling_man@sacred.harpy.faith
2025-12-29T15:19:52.876252Z
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@ZekuZelalem >jews jewing niggers
(DIR) Post #B1khh5trgOkloGRIfY by CattleBaron@noauthority.social
2025-12-29T20:50:27Z
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@amerika @ZekuZelalem "but their tribes, fought with each other, so their love could never be.."https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1PfrpcqLyzY