Posts by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
(DIR) Post #B1kDuFlxI89ZZI6ACW by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:10:15Z
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But that's not what transpired. Ethiopia miscalculated things greatly. Somalia launched a successful diplomatic offensive, that resulted in condemnation of Ethiopia by among others, the US, EU and AU. It also signed military defense pacts with Egypt and Turkiye, allowing these to patrol its waters and protect it from the Ethiopian threat, something Ethiopia had not anticipated. Israel likely banked on gaining a foothold in the region via an Ethiopian proxy. It then had to amend its plans.
(DIR) Post #B1kDuGLl90nFMKql0a by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:13:30Z
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Netanyahu did state that the decision to recognize Somaliland came after extensive dialogue. This is supported by news reports that came out this year. According to the AP, Somaliland was approached by Israel/US, asked to contemplate hosting millions of Palestinians in the case of Trump pushing on with his widely denounced "Gaza Riviera" plans. If Somaliland was asked to facilitate ethnic cleansing, it should give us an idea of how in depth these talks were. https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-trump-somaliland-sudan-somalia-575e03aaa0c487bae2fbadfdef8f5ca3
(DIR) Post #B1kDuGYWNZ09zuowts by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:17:25Z
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Meanwhile, a week before Netanyahu's recognition of Somaliland, Israeli newspaper "The Times of Israel" reported that Marco Rubio had recently approached Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed and asked him to contribute troops to a proposed international Gaza stabilization force. It is unclear what Abiy answered, but it is possible that Abiy, who has long been desperate for landlocked Ethiopia to gain a coast, may have asked for sea access...something Israel may be in a position to enable via Somaliland.
(DIR) Post #B1kDuHAo5DctuejWZk by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:21:01Z
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Abiy Ahmed has been desperate for sea access, even threatening his neighbours with war over it...something I wrote about here in Nov 2023.Israel and the US, who are seeking troop contributing countries for their Gaza initiative, may be dangling sea access in negotiations with Ethiopia. Having failed to secure access via its 2024 agreement, a second go, this time with the support of powerful allies in Israel and the US could prove enticing.https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/11/7/is-landlocked-ethiopia-starting-another-war-over-ports-in-horn-of-africa
(DIR) Post #B1kDuHQl7uO2i8CGRM by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:24:10Z
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Of course, some of this amounts to speculation. But we did openly speculate that Ethiopia's port agreement in 2024, corresponding with Houthi rocket attacks against Israeli interests in the Red Sea...could lead to Israel taking concrete action to establish a permanent presence off the Gulf of Aden to counter that threat. And I'm one for one so far. After all, even prior to the Gaza onslaught and the Houthi rocket attacks, Israel always sought to nullify Iranian influence in the region.
(DIR) Post #B1kDuHnnkEonrayfM8 by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:28:28Z
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Israeli's Somaliland move will bring many global & regional powers into direct diplomatic confrontation with each other. Turkiye & Egypt are both fervently pro Somalia and have come out against Israel's move. China has no love lost for Somaliland, due to its recognition of Taiwan. Qatar and the KSA are among those jostling for influence in the region, and feel uneasy about the UAE, Israel's silent partner, outdoing them in the Horn. And of course, Iran can't be happy with what has transpired.
(DIR) Post #B1kDuI80X6yusGQnqq by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:32:35Z
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N.B...the goal of this thread is not to discuss whether the concept of Somaliland's independence is legitimate or not. It's not for me to say, nor is it relevant here. If someone isn't speaking in a scholarly/legal capacity, discussing the role of colonial era treaties in international law and the right of peoples to pursue self determination...it is then a conversation primarily for Somalis. Or pundits. I am neither. Bare facts: as of now, international law supports Somalia's position.
(DIR) Post #B1kDuISDJz91svswLY by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:34:40Z
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Politics of sovereignty aside, what ought to worry everyone, whether they hail from the region or not is this: two states infamous for enabling/perpetrating genocide in Gaza & Darfur plan to exponentially expand their political (and likely military) footprint in the Horn of Africa.This should concern us the way westerners fear Russian expansion anywhere.And not concern as in "we are gravely concerned," from the diplomatic statement template.
(DIR) Post #B1kDuIkIElben0LNWi by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2025-12-29T07:36:00Z
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Anyhoo, I'm working on an investigation that will further address Israeli actions in Africa, that as a result of Netanyahu's Friday declaration, is suddenly very timely. I hope it will clarify some more things for us all.I'll be sharing it here when it comes out sometime in January...where else but Al Jazeera obviously. Thanks, -ZZ.
(DIR) Post #B1ptde3wtZkZqT4rwm by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2026-01-01T08:35:09Z
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There has been genocide in each year of the 2020ies so far, what a cursed decade. A decade we kicked off with a global pandemic, lest we forget. Here's to bucking the trend in 26. Wishing you a happy new year fediverse fam.
(DIR) Post #B1wXVU79A57DmyzqEq by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2026-01-04T11:32:38Z
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Selam!Wanted to hear opinions from (but not limited to) our American friends here: So Semafor reported that both the Washington Post and NY Times were leaked info about the Caracas raid and planned Maduro abduction prior to it happening, but chose not to publish it. Apparently, it's a US media tradition meant to avoid compromising the safety of US troops. Qs: is withholding such info consistent with journo practice? And beyond journalism, how do you feel about the decision?
(DIR) Post #B1wXVWu8mtUiRVvzsm by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2026-01-04T11:56:48Z
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@asllop right? Was wondering how journalism could be consistent with patriotism.
(DIR) Post #B1wXVbrUMBLNojjRwW by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2026-01-04T11:39:22Z
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I ask because as someone who isn't American, all coverage of army activity in the Horn of Africa is criminalized anyway so there's no distinguishing what to withhold and what not to. So my perspective might not be valid. I'd could argue that releasing the info may have saved the lives of Venezuelan civilians & fulfilled the "minimize harm" section of the SPJ code of journo ethics. What's the thinking behind this media tradition? Maybe there's something I'm missing.https://www.spj.org/spj-code-of-ethics/
(DIR) Post #B1wXVjP4JjMdCuUrku by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2026-01-04T11:43:25Z
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No judgement whatsoever btw. Feel free to disagree, or lecture me. I'd just like to learn.
(DIR) Post #B2qIVVYtHMydvMh7se by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2026-01-31T07:55:08Z
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RE: https://dair-community.social/@ZekuZelalem/115988072665885674UPDATE: Tigray regional state TV is reporting that at 4 AM Ethiopian time (bout 6 hours ago) drones struck two vehicles in two north eastern Tigray towns, killing a driver and injuring another. It's the first civilian casualties in drone strikes in Tigray since the November 2022 ceasefire that ended the Tigray war. There are graphic images I won't share here. Ethiopia has expanded its drone arsenal considerably since 2022, with the UAE playing a role in delivering armaments and other hardware.
(DIR) Post #B2zD9BoBI3cCwQ1Z8i by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2026-02-04T02:06:57Z
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Today, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed appeared in parliament to answer the usual softball questions and made a ground-breaking admission.He was asked about the security situation and a potential war with neighbouring Eritrea. What led to the fallout of two countries that were formerly allied?Abiy claims that things actually began to unravel as far back as the Tigray war, when Eritrean soldiers massacred civilians in the town of Axum. He claims that is where the feud began.
(DIR) Post #B2zD9CgQ2P05edOsgC by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2026-02-04T02:12:46Z
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It is groundbreaking because for years, Ethiopia denied that any massacre had taken place at Axum, this despite well documented report on it by Amnesty International. The state poured resources into a huge social media campaign, coordinated with government supporters around the world. It whipped social media into a fascist frenzy, spreading denialism, conspiracy theories and attacking victims as well as journalists and researchers who documented the atrocity.
(DIR) Post #B2zD9KhmDEq8XA64uG by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2026-02-04T02:17:30Z
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My coverage of the November 2020 Axum massacre for the UK's Daily Telegraph. The #FakeAxumMassacre was one of the campaigns that made me realize that Twitter was unfixable and that social media moderation needed an overhaul. It is being extensively documented by the wonderful team at @DAIR thankfully.Social media was flooded with the Ethiopian version of Holocaust denialism for weeks. It was sickening for me, now imagine how much worse it was for mourning victims.https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/02/26/eritrean-troops-killed-hundreds-ethiopia-massacre-amnesty-claims/
(DIR) Post #B2zD9ScklnZj5toBBg by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2026-02-04T02:28:19Z
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There's a lot that should be said about the numerous prominent Ethiopian scholars, like this one, based out of EU and US academic institutions, who used their expertise to amplify Axum massacre denialism and attack researchers who documented the atrocity. It was a fascist frenzy unlike any I had ever seen. There were still people until recently who would swear nothing happened in November 2020. Institutions took no action, because nobody knew enough or cared enough to find out.
(DIR) Post #B2zD9aTTaAuLRRWsq0 by ZekuZelalem@dair-community.social
2026-02-04T02:32:58Z
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For now, I'll keep the focus on the people who count: victims. This is my good friend Britawit Arefayne, a Canadian citizen & native of Axum. In 2022, two years after the Axum massacre, she appeared on a Canadian parliamentary hearing on human rights abuses in Tigray, where she bravely testified about the murders of her brother, cousin & uncle at the hands of Eritrean soldiers in the massacre.In addition to this heartache, she has spent years hearing Ethiopians belittle & mock her suffering