Post AzChiHT11ltwe2FwMS by meltedcheese@c.im
(DIR) More posts by meltedcheese@c.im
(DIR) Post #AzCIK1zsOZb8rSxzkW by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-10-14T10:42:41Z
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@jgordon So. What you are telling me is that the AI crash is *also* a bubble now? Lordy lordy what are we doing?Is no one interested in dividends anymore?
(DIR) Post #AzCJted8qj00lnsoBE by Phosphenes@mastodon.social
2025-10-14T11:00:19Z
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@futurebird @jgordon I have never seen a crash where everyone said in advance there was going to be a crash. Does that cancel it out?
(DIR) Post #AzCKVVDQIlyOZgtuRE by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-10-14T11:07:08Z
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@jgordon @Phosphenes I agree there is too much money that needs a place to "be invested" and not enough place to do it and not enough brains moving the money to do it well. Being an evil communist I would suggest that high taxes could help solve this problem.
(DIR) Post #AzCKdulTC7mC89pxL6 by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-10-14T11:08:42Z
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@Phosphenes @jgordon I have seen this happen for the past three crashes. But nobody listens to chicken little.
(DIR) Post #AzCLxciS6nUVtpO4yO by Phosphenes@mastodon.social
2025-10-14T11:23:27Z
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@futurebird @jgordon Yes but don't the Chicken Littles seem like the mainstream majority now? Maybe it's my own echo chamber, but unlike other crashes I don't see anyone even disagreeing that it's going to fall.I've never seen a run on short-selling so big it became a bubble in itself.Then again, I looked for AI in the news this morning and it's all about new data centers in India. So maybe I'm overestimating the backlash.
(DIR) Post #AzCM29OeXpcQPnHjcm by richpuchalsky@mastodon.social
2025-10-14T11:24:15Z
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@futurebird No one invests "for society", they invest to make money individually. So the non-sucker class understands that it's a bubble, but for an individual investor that's fine as long as you sell before it pops. Then you inflate the next bubble.@Phosphenes @jgordon
(DIR) Post #AzCMs52K071VwzbMrg by llewelly@sauropods.win
2025-10-14T11:33:41Z
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@futurebird @jgordon I guess about 15 years ago, Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote a popular book about what a great genius he was for figuring out how to get rich by betting on "black swan" and "grey swan" type disasterous market crashes. He was cautiously vague about the role shorting had played in the subprime loan crash, but his contemporaries shouted it from the rooftops. And so betting on the bubble bursting went from an obscure aspect of bubble dynamics to a famous aspect of bubble dynamics.
(DIR) Post #AzCQcXTwsATrM9MvoW by graydon@canada.masto.host
2025-10-14T12:15:38Z
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@futurebird @jgordon @Phosphenes High taxes cannot solve the problem; we saw that tried, and what we got was an elite consensus that it's better to have direct corporate control and no civil power than to pay taxes. ("greedhead" is a flavour of crazy.) Once there's concentrated wealth, the real scope of civil control is questionable.Limitarianism, where you just can't get rich past the returns of one productive lifetime, rather than looting many others of their lives, might be worth a try.
(DIR) Post #AzCQuwYgNVEILFMK6S by graydon@canada.masto.host
2025-10-14T12:19:00Z
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@futurebird @jgordon Dividends are participating in the regular functioning of the economy, and do no maximise short term returns.AI is a hype bubble ("everything will change!"), an investment bubble ($ inputs greater than US consumer spending, dubious returns), and an infrastructure bubble (data centre buildout beyond electrical generation capacity, etc.)So we're going to get a market collapse, a liquidation problem, and a bunch of people having false god issues all at once.
(DIR) Post #AzCdj5S2msgPqrvl44 by cstross@wandering.shop
2025-10-14T14:42:29Z
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@futurebird @jgordon It happened before, in 2009-2011: the Arab Spring was to some extent triggered by global capital piling into commodities like wheat futures as a refuge from the subprime crisis. (It sent the price of bread skyrocketing throughout the Middle East, in the middle of a wider economic crisis presided over by credibility-bankrupted dictatorships.)
(DIR) Post #AzChiHT11ltwe2FwMS by meltedcheese@c.im
2025-10-14T14:51:07Z
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@futurebird @jgordon I’ve been much calmer — and gained more wealth — since I refocused on income and stopped chasing capital gains. To each his own.
(DIR) Post #AzFZPZVpUja6wz1IuW by burnitdown@beige.party
2025-10-16T00:38:16Z
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@futurebird @jgordon @Phosphenes taxes are a social democratic, aka reformist, solution, which means it won't actually solve the problem and leave it in place for the problem to happen again. taxes will also overwhelmingly be spent on cops, military, weapons, and genocide. taxes do not put wealth back in our hands, it gives it to a different section of the ruling class and lets them make decisions about how to spend it, where they can once again cut taxes until we have what have now. to prevent hoarding of stolen wealth, we must first prevent our wealth from being stolen. that means abolition of the wage system. all profit is stolen, unpaid wages. if we don't recognise this as the problem, we will just have more of it.