Post AyF2vxLSsR4U5Me2fA by AbyssalRook@mstdn.social
(DIR) More posts by AbyssalRook@mstdn.social
(DIR) Post #AyEOzCgEK2bwLeLqCG by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-15T13:14:43Z
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Here is a good overview on trends in datacenters. (Did you know they are planning for firing up 3 mile island again?)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhqoTku-HAA
(DIR) Post #AyER2zgsl5qB82ajhY by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-15T13:37:48Z
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Another overlapping perspective. There is an AI bubble. The "High Yield" video makes these data centers sound inevitable and unstoppable. But, what if all of this infrastructure isn't really producing any value? Or enough value?OpenAI has only a handful of customers and most of them are using it to do their homework for them. We discussed "Vibe Coding" last week and no one can agree on if it saves any time or not. Ed Zitro makes the case for the bubble on MR.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wStScmT748
(DIR) Post #AyERGoeiaCK8xVAboG by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-15T13:40:16Z
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i am the goblin who eats the homework feed me! nom nom nom
(DIR) Post #AyERQLt0OzukcxOrdA by darkling@mstdn.social
2025-09-15T13:41:59Z
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@futurebird Unfortunately, you are also the goblin who has to mark the homework.
(DIR) Post #AyERSee3czvRO0VRgW by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-15T13:42:27Z
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@darkling yeah... :/
(DIR) Post #AyERVw2XPX7uCiWMWe by dx@social.ridetrans.it
2025-09-15T13:42:59Z
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@futurebird OpenAI only has a handful of customers? Loooots of companies building them in as a core part of their stack these days (which is itself terrifying on several levels).
(DIR) Post #AyERa9EGJeaQGf0uXI by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-15T13:43:47Z
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@dx Compared to the level of investment there just aren't as many people diving in. And some who dive in will find out it's not doing much and pull out.
(DIR) Post #AyERx4dvX6RuhkwyK8 by dx@social.ridetrans.it
2025-09-15T13:47:48Z
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@futurebird That’s fair. I think there is a bubble. But OpenAI calls are getting tossed into all sorts of software these days. Not to mention the large swath of startups that are basically just wrappers on top of OpenAI
(DIR) Post #AyES3OqvJ5lT7a2t0K by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-15T13:49:05Z
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@dx what happens when they raise the price? are they indispensable? or all these things "chat bots" that try to talk to you while you use a website that could be easily scrapped?
(DIR) Post #AyEUDxr4Dw90U1HJ1k by dx@social.ridetrans.it
2025-09-15T14:13:19Z
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@futurebird They’re mostly *not* chatbots. They’re mostly stuff like “look through this data and pull out these parts and format it as a json file”
(DIR) Post #AyEUiodOYUsYraato8 by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-15T14:18:58Z
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@dx Is that what’s making all the terrible websites that come up in search?
(DIR) Post #AyEVCywsltaXXY5rns by dx@social.ridetrans.it
2025-09-15T14:24:20Z
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@futurebird I don’t think so. That’s just weaponized seo, powered by LLMs. The search ranking algorithms don’t have great defenses against slop I think
(DIR) Post #AyEWqUa9C3BetfraC0 by toerror@mastodon.gamedev.place
2025-09-15T14:42:43Z
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@futurebird I did think it'd make such a good dreamworks film when I heard that :-)
(DIR) Post #AyEWvPn8QpnlUHHlHU by dx@social.ridetrans.it
2025-09-15T14:13:52Z
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@futurebird The expectation among c levels is that prices will fall, not rise.
(DIR) Post #AyEWvRJmkvVsDpZLoO by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-15T14:43:39Z
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@dx I am but a simple school teacher, so perhaps I’m missing something these businesses-folk see that I do not— however: why do they think the price would go down? I thought this stage of the AI business model was like the early days of uber and amazon wherein they corner the market, addict the consumer and then the hammer comes down and big profits emerge (or not)
(DIR) Post #AyEaizEPkserSFNGz2 by dx@social.ridetrans.it
2025-09-15T15:26:09Z
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@futurebird Moore’s law adjacent reasons. They expect compute to become cheaper and for models to become more efficient. In the 15 years I’ve been doing this stuff, so far this has held. Models that were too big to fit on one gpu now train easily on a normal laptop that is sipping power. The LLMs of today are inconceivably large compared to models from not that many years ago.
(DIR) Post #AyEoRnEIWVgwfP11Ky by toerror@mastodon.gamedev.place
2025-09-15T16:51:21Z
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@dx @futurebird The only thing they'll be able to retain in the new data centers they are making to run this stuff is the floor space ( if the hardware becomes obsolete ) , so at the very least, most of the current investment has to be paid for in addition to the new moore's lawed hardware before they can reach profitability. Assuming that it is indeed possible to scale the processor capabilities without linearly increasing costs.
(DIR) Post #AyEoRnupyLienKuzdw by dx@social.ridetrans.it
2025-09-15T17:19:24Z
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@toerror @futurebird To be clear, I do think a bubble is coming. I think the data centre investment is *insane*. But it’s important to understand these models are not merely being used for end user applications like chat and code completion. They are absolutely getting integrated into major features. It makes me skin crawl that folks wiring in a 3rd party api in some of the things I’ve seen, but it is happening. Many, many companies will have a reckoning if costs balloon or if OpenAI implodes.
(DIR) Post #AyF2vxLSsR4U5Me2fA by AbyssalRook@mstdn.social
2025-09-15T20:42:17Z
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@futurebird James finally gets home after a strange day. His parents are still out working, but at least the dog is around. He collapses on the couch and looks the concerned pitbull in the eye, reading the question, 'what's wrong?'Not sure how else to put it, he just says it. "My teacher ate my homework."