Post Aut7Vwr1Qe2P92hGWO by ReverendMoose@mas.to
(DIR) More posts by ReverendMoose@mas.to
(DIR) Post #Aus9Ez205RUHixuUim by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-06-07T01:58:19Z
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Trade protectionism is an interesting theory. The idea is that by imposing tariffs and other regulations on foreign manufacturers you shelter and grow local manufacturing and protect local manufacturing jobs. The US lost 8k manufacturing jobs in the month of May. It's not hard to understand why, supply chain uncertainty is making US manufacturers risk-adverse, but since no one knows if the "protection" will ever exist or last for more than a week it's not making jobs.
(DIR) Post #Aus9JK6DhLhKDwxA92 by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-06-07T01:59:06Z
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https://www.tumblr.com/seananmcguire/641236374856646656/goldhornsandblackwool-congrats-lil-buddy-thats
(DIR) Post #Aus9Ypt1nQkV9cBD8q by JessTheUnstill@infosec.exchange
2025-06-07T02:01:52Z
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https://imgur.com/gallery/holding-yourself-hostage-7Y8qPky@futurebird
(DIR) Post #Aus9lwg1rSQByjLoFk by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-06-07T02:04:16Z
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My basic understanding is that this could work if you did it for a small sector of the economy: made the trade protections last for years. This would give US manufacturers incentives to open factories and create manufacturing jobs. Then in theory the protections are phased out once the companies have a foothold.I don't know enough about economics to know if it really works like that but it makes sense as explained.Anyway we aren't do this. I don't get what we are doing.
(DIR) Post #AusA8kciqDwzFwg8PY by gbargoud@masto.nyc
2025-06-07T02:08:21Z
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@futurebird I would love to see long term tariffs tied directly to labor rights. Basically if you're saving money by offshoring the work to a country with fewer worker protections, then you need to pay tariffs unless that country improves it's worker protections (at which point the money saved by offshoring would be a lot lower)
(DIR) Post #AusALebIXu9oLCAIG8 by drahardja@sfba.social
2025-06-07T02:10:42Z
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@futurebird I think what we’re seeing is not protectionism but a pure shakedown. The intended beneficiaries of Trump’s actions are (in order) Trump, the Trump Org, people who give Trump kickbacks in return for unfair trade advantage, and inside-traders.There is no policy, no goal beyond short-term profiteering, no public interest, no thought given to long-term impact. It’s a mobster shakedown, plain and simple.Nice business you got there, would be a shame if anything were to happen to it.
(DIR) Post #AusAgIf7J7lWNhnPv6 by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-06-07T02:14:27Z
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@drahardja I think you are correct. But, it might be surprising how many Americans are excited about protectionism. Just from having family who all live in PA and worked in the steel mills (which were gutted by "free trade") there is an old multi generation wound. And if you didn't get educated and bounce whole happy working class communities were destroyed.I think Trump taps into that yearning but I need people to get that he's Just Not Doing It. None of them ever will.
(DIR) Post #AusBNmBDR9lONgXbc0 by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-06-07T02:22:19Z
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@drahardja The neighborhood where my father grew up which was a lovely Black neighborhood, next to a Little Poland, and Little everything else looks like it was *bombed* Almost nothing is standing. All of those communities are gone and anyone who didn't leave is struggling. Places change, that's fine, but I watched this happen in my 40 years of life.
(DIR) Post #AusCE3J50MncYc99Ki by drahardja@sfba.social
2025-06-07T02:31:42Z
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@futurebird I was going to write the same thing when I saw your reply!I think people wrongly equate tariffs with protectionism. Tariffs are just a tool, while protectionism is an overarching strategy. Tariffs can *hurt* American businesses, too: e.g. the Chicken Tax hurts US automakers more than it helps now.I’m not sure if protectionism through tariffs ever helps—the 1930s protectionist tariffs led to the Great Depression after all—but we do know that NO protectionism hurts US workers…which is where your example comes in. For the past 40+ years, the US “free trade” policy essentially ANTI-protectionism: we exported US labor to countries with worse human rights and living standards to benefit capital. The result was devastating stagnation in wages, a destruction of US industries, and a widening of inequality.And like you said, Trump is tapping into this: his base thinks he’s reversing the harms free trade, which he most certainly is not.
(DIR) Post #AusCNeoAwcDBTMGsuO by drahardja@sfba.social
2025-06-07T02:33:21Z
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@futurebird Oh wow, jinx. I think we are thinking the same things here.
(DIR) Post #AusCigPoAHXAXOtpy4 by kate@aus.social
2025-06-07T02:35:39Z
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@drahardja @futurebird Just quietly reading this from a steel town in one of the countries affected by US steel and aluminium tariffs, and thinking about Australian steelworkers and their struggling communities. Is there a way forward if we can think about all of this with something in common?
(DIR) Post #AusCqLlAqRrSnDY6iW by bananarama@mstdn.social
2025-06-07T02:38:38Z
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@futurebird The risk is related to specialization: could you have done something else with the resources you have that would make you better off? For the US, the answer to this question is almost always "yes." Industrial policy can cause economically non-viable solutions to persist, and will increase corruption. This means people are paying more for goods & services, and you end up with worse jobs in the US in exchange for no jobs somewhere they're really needed.
(DIR) Post #AusGOeIkiK480UImGG by graydon@canada.masto.host
2025-06-07T03:08:06Z
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@kate @drahardja @futurebird The historical examples of effective protectionism are for relatively small economic sectors, with time frames, and with the acceptance/understanding of trading partners, which means the policy gets applied with forethought and planning and prior negotiation.Trying to wall off the whole economy (Smoot-Hawley) doesn't work; random flailing, well, it's not entirely random.
(DIR) Post #AusHqut4k2ALVeKnnU by waitworry@sakurajima.moe
2025-06-07T03:34:46Z
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@futurebird bring back mercantilism! just make the US economy a closed system! /s
(DIR) Post #AusVnCkhmDKl7IXlLs by artemesia@sfba.social
2025-06-07T06:10:58Z
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@futurebird @drahardja Mangolini is usually about 19 fails of out 20 on the things he promises to deliver. And on that 1 in 20, like turning ICE into our 21st century american gestapo, you kind of wish he hadn't
(DIR) Post #AusgIGJnZEa8hAPFcO by theta_max@mathstodon.xyz
2025-06-07T08:08:36Z
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@futurebird FYI Ha Joon Chang's Kicking Away the Ladder makes essentially this argument: successful development has typically involved protecting infant industries until they were ready to complete, then gradually removing the protection and letting competition drive further improvement.However, it's hard to see this applying to the US. The pining for 'good manufacturing jobs' in particular. The US could plausibly reshore say, semiconductor manufacturing. But to be competitive it would need to be either highly automated, or labour costs be substantially suppressed. Neither leading to a large number of well paid jobs afaics.
(DIR) Post #Austg82nHUrFO4ABRQ by gbargoud@masto.nyc
2025-06-07T10:38:37Z
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@futurebird @drahardja Trump is really good at pointing out real problems that a lot of politicians are ignoring and saying he'll fix them while proposing "solutions" that will either make those problems worse or do nothing to address them while making other problems worse
(DIR) Post #Aut7Vwr1Qe2P92hGWO by ReverendMoose@mas.to
2025-06-07T13:13:38Z
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@futurebird a good example along these lines, of at least the first part, would be a lot of the tax incentives NY state started giving call it 20 years ago. To the best of my recollection this is literally why Chobani exists as a brand.Now of course the tricky part there is phasing them out over time, which I think they haven't been quite as good at.
(DIR) Post #AutFr9nZIRvR0Ohnea by cshlan@dawdling.net
2025-06-07T14:46:39Z
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@futurebird I was hoping Biden's EV tariffs would encourage China to invest in factories in Mexico. That would be good for everyone involved I think. But....