Post ArFvdWcbs0YHSmX5Xs by sumisu3@mastodon.nz
(DIR) More posts by sumisu3@mastodon.nz
(DIR) Post #Ar62EIGKsQQRmtQlG4 by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2025-02-14T03:17:16Z
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@oldoldcojote > Started a couple decades agoFeel free to finish your thought there. I'm listening : )
(DIR) Post #ArFvdVWtvkOK4mr10a by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2024-12-11T04:55:47Z
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Just listening to Manning and Buchanan talking about Syria; https://eveningreport.nz/2024/12/02/podcast-conflict-expansion-and-opportunism-within-a-lame-duck-window/After listening to Campbell and Stewart comments on what's happening in Syria, and then this, I'm calling it;We are now living through #WW3.Why do I say this? Because a few months ago there were 3 separate proxy wars in 2 separate regions; the Syrian civil war, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and IDF genocide in Gaza. Now they're all joining up at the edges.(1/?)#podcasts #EveningReport #AViewFromAfar
(DIR) Post #ArFvdWcbs0YHSmX5Xs by sumisu3@mastodon.nz
2024-12-11T05:27:49Z
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@strypey Russian invasion of Ukraine (this latest time, not Crimea) will be considered the first step. And as you note Gaza and Syria, along with China tightening the noose on Taiwan, the election of Trump and his move to US isolationism (unless he gets some $$$ personally I’m sure) are all part of the history that will be written in retrospect
(DIR) Post #ArFvdXqTJxEbG41fn6 by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2024-12-15T03:45:17Z
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(1/?)There's a lot to unpack in this post, so I've come back to it after some thought.@sumisu3 > Russian invasion of Ukraine ... will be considered the first stepUkraine or Syria. But WW2 is generally considered to have started with the invasion of Poland, not the annexation of Sudetenland, so I suspect you're right.
(DIR) Post #ArFvdYgaCCuzrgPI12 by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2024-12-15T03:52:07Z
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(2/?)@sumisu3> along with China tightening the noose on TaiwanI'm not sure what to make of this yet. So far it looks like a classic proxy war. Xi seems to have far more to gain from *threatening* to annex Taiwan than from actually doing it. As long as semiconductor producers remain market actors that is, allowing the Chinese the same access as anyone else. But the Taiwanese are smart enough not to let their country become even more geo-politicised than it already is.
(DIR) Post #ArFvdZGk1lqFfpKANM by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2024-12-15T03:55:55Z
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(3/?)Once the semiconductor factories being built elsewhere as we speak are open for business, Taiwan will be of no great interest to anyone but the Taiwanese. Which is probably in their best interests. Although it will hurt them economically in the short term, again, I think they're smart enough to be planning for that.
(DIR) Post #ArFvdZmI8T4xFg5MYK by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2024-12-15T03:58:26Z
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(4/?)That's a materialist analysis, so it's necessarily reductive. But I don't think it's too far off. Both US and CCP leaders have much to gain domestically by rattling their sabres with each other, but neither empire has much to gain from open conflict.Rather, the CCP and North Koreans seems to be backing Russia as a proxy, in the same way the US has been trying to develop India as a proxy. Despite these being significant political-economic powers in themselves. AFAICT this is new.
(DIR) Post #ArFvdaG4Lktkk218y0 by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2024-12-15T04:02:26Z
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(5/?)@sumisu3> the election of Trump and his move to US isolationism ... are all part of the history that will be written in retrospectDespite being generally appalled by Orange Stalin, like his namesake, I think he's much more of a threat to the people of the country he rules than to anyone else.Stalin only joined WW2 because the Nazis had the hubris to attack the USSR. If they hadn't, I don't think Stalin gave a toss whether the non-Soviet empire was ruled from the UK, Germany, or US.
(DIR) Post #ArFvdapsCdXQX4ljm4 by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2025-02-18T21:50:18Z
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Me:> Stalin only joined WW2 because the Nazis had the hubris to attack the USSRAs I learned sometime after this, from Snyder's Yale lectures about the history of Ukraine, Stalin actually helped Hitler *start* WW2 by invading Poland with him, and occupying a big chunk of it. Strange that this isn't part of the popular narrative if WW2 history.But my comment here is still fair if applied only to why they started fighting the Nazis.#MeaCulpa
(DIR) Post #ArFvdd5XpLGJWG7HTk by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2024-12-11T05:42:32Z
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AFAICT the jigsaw pieces go together like this;1) The Syrian conflict ended up in stalemate a few years back, because of support for the Al-Assad regime from both Putin and Hezbollah2) The stalemate allowed Putin to redirect resources to Ukraine3) The fall of Al-Assad happened partly because of the IDF's invasion of Lebanon, which pulled the bulk of Hezbollah's partisans back there(2/?)
(DIR) Post #ArFvdl7xwDx6S5JKMa by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2024-12-15T04:09:28Z
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(6/6)So the election of Drumpf's will certainly tilt the table in a different direction than the election of Harris would have. But geopolitics is one area where I doubt the results will be significantly worse.You're right though, that if the world war that now involves Ukraine, Russia, Syria, Israel, Palestine and Lebanon intensifies and spread over the coming years, Drumpf's actions will be recorded as contributing. For better or for worse.
(DIR) Post #ArFvdmV2pu0Whx7GyW by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2024-12-11T05:42:32Z
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4) Whether or not the tankies are right that the rebels now controlling the Syrian capital are CIA-backed, it is likely they're pissed at Putin for backing Al-Assad5) So Putin is now facing an unfriendly regime on a border where he previously had a friendly one (ironically, just like what happened in Ukraine in 2004)6) This will force Putin to divide his strategic focus between Ukraine and Syria(3/?)
(DIR) Post #ArFvduSVFEjBONzM7k by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2024-12-11T05:42:32Z
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Putting on my tinfoil hat for a minute, and trying to read between the lines ...Having Putin forced into this war on 2 front situation, given the implications of Drumpf's election for the defence of Ukraine, is ... *very* convenient for the neocon hawks still fighting the cold war. This makes it more plausible that the tankies are at least partly right about CIA involvement in Syria.(4/?)
(DIR) Post #ArFve2Zt3fO6ZbVMkC by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2024-12-11T05:42:32Z
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Again with my tinfoil hat on, I'll go you one better;1) Anyone who understood the situation in Syria could have foreseen this consequence of smashing Hezbollah. 2) US continuing military aid to the IDF as they engaged in open genocide was bound to damage their international standingSo ...3) It's possible they made it contingent on the IDF going into Lebanon and taking out Hassan Nasrallah. So that a small push in Syria could then topple Al-Assad and help their allies in Ukraine.(5/5)
(DIR) Post #ArFw9SIBVCh9IoCjbM by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2025-02-18T21:56:16Z
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@oldoldcojote All fair comments. But to me the events you describe are more comparable to the events of the 1920s/30s, setting the stage for WW2. Which it's generally agreed began with the invasion of Poland. Although it's curiously elided from pop history that this was a joint action by Hitler *and* Stalin, and the USSR occupied a big chunk of it too.Similarly, my thesis is that WW3 began when the proxy wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Syria joined up, with the toppling of Assad.
(DIR) Post #ArGOweaZN0i0LU3Gls by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2025-02-19T03:18:53Z
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@oldoldcojote > you might check out how Obama's right wing, Yale brotherhood, first and later fired ambassador to Syria started the war in SyriaClearly I didn't follow it as closely as you have. But I remember political satirists showing Bush pointing to a map of the Middle East, and explaining how the way out of Iraq was through Syria, Libya, and if I remember rightly, Yemen. Following a plan laid out by an infamous report by the neocon Project for a New American Century.
(DIR) Post #ArGddDYn8WrMKOPVQ0 by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2025-02-19T06:03:26Z
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@oldoldcojote > Libya is a whole other messOne with sticky USAmerican fingerprints all over it though, from what I understand. Particularly those of one H Clinton.