Post AjfAT4q40r2ckSLVya by LouisIngenthron@qoto.org
(DIR) More posts by LouisIngenthron@qoto.org
(DIR) Post #Ajf6ya95GVXn0N0fXk by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-07-06T18:28:39Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
In the US, we don't elect political parties (now famously "hollow"). And we don't elect the man, or the woman. Even in Congress, but especially as President, the job is far above the capability or judgment of one person, however old or young.What we elect when we elect a person is that person's friends, who will become staff, advisor, appointees.Whatever you think of the person, what matters is the people they will place around them. We choose not so much the puppet as the puppeteers.
(DIR) Post #Ajf7UvpcAlttWtKRhQ by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-07-06T18:34:29Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@Geoffberner no, i don't think so at all. i think what makes this so painful is, regardless of the state of the President himself, the group of people who surround him think (with some justice!) they are doing a great job, and understand the band would be broken up, and they personally would be unlikely to have roles nearly so influential, if there were a switch of marionettes. they, i think, are all in unless/until loss becomes nearly certain.
(DIR) Post #AjfAT4q40r2ckSLVya by LouisIngenthron@qoto.org
2024-07-06T19:07:46Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@interfluidity @Geoffberner If they were really sure they were doing such a great job, they wouldn't need to worry about being replaced.
(DIR) Post #AjfJwdbmia5sZOpzpg by ComradeGibbon@mastodon.social
2024-07-06T20:53:56Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@interfluidity Beden could be put on the golden throne ala Warhammer 40k with an magic 8 ball under his one remaining finger and we'd be 10,000 times better off than Trump and his pack of quislings.
(DIR) Post #AjfMaTPGGfmYQ96Qb2 by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-07-06T21:23:33Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@LouisIngenthron @Geoffberner i don’t think that’s right. there’s a huge time consistency problem in the (at best very incomplete) understanding of electoral democracy as “the public evaluates and throws the bums out if they don’t like how things are going”. lots of policy interventions take longer than an electoral cycle to meaningfully reveal results. 1/
(DIR) Post #AjfMhxgg5BPkMWotA8 by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-07-06T21:24:55Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@LouisIngenthron @Geoffberner if you make “selling the strategy” or “maintaining enthusiasm” as an essential dimension of quality, then, sure, tautologically, a successful administration would have nothing to fear. 2/
(DIR) Post #AjfMuHsSqGnWSKD5bU by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-07-06T21:27:08Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@LouisIngenthron @Geoffberner but i think good policy can often involve a long lead time, through which it may be challenging to sustain enthusiasm, while challengers can sell hopes without any plausible policy behind them. 3/
(DIR) Post #AjfN4TIrDTq4muPZqa by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-07-06T21:28:59Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@LouisIngenthron @Geoffberner so i think it quite possible that an administration can be succeeding on policy grounds but remain electorally fragile. /fin
(DIR) Post #AjfPWz7ohFb5UxyHSa by LouisIngenthron@qoto.org
2024-07-06T21:56:32Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@interfluidity @Geoffberner Good policy can have a long lead time, I agree.But that's exactly why it needs to rest on the shoulders of the party as a whole instead of a single temporary-by-definition presidential administration.Biden's (and, more specifically, his campaign staff's) primary job is to keep his party's administrators in place long enough to carry out the party's policy, by getting (re)elected.If he and his team can't do that, as it's increasingly seeming like they can't, then the party needs to swap them out.
(DIR) Post #AjfPiyrZUqfsA25oQq by barrkel@c.im
2024-07-06T21:58:42Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@interfluidity that's a fine rationale for your own vote, but I don't think it's a good mental model for the stuff going on in the median voter's mind.
(DIR) Post #AjfPjfIzhHZ7nFFJ0S by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-07-06T21:58:51Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@Geoffberner @LouisIngenthron a good electoral system is not based on a consumer-choice style evaluate-service-then-fire-the-bastards. what the state does is what we collectively do, not what someone else does whom we just fire. our electoral system does encourage that metaphor, so yes, a better world gets constantly destroyed because it’s susceptible to ugly oppo or is not adequately sold.
(DIR) Post #AjfQE4DrcUUnlCLKDI by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-07-06T22:04:20Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@LouisIngenthron @Geoffberner i agree, but we can’t sustain cohesive parties in a two party system. the electorate has more to express than only two parties can sustainably stick to. in the moment, i agree with you it’d be better if we had a strong party that could change inadequate management to advance a virtuous underlying agenda. but we don’t, and can’t in a two party system, unless we really insulate the parties from the fractious public very bad for different reasons).
(DIR) Post #AjfQNGyLaOMVuQTUno by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-07-06T22:06:00Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@barrkel yeah, it was more a prescriptive than descriptive claim.
(DIR) Post #AjfR4GXb493T1USmEy by LouisIngenthron@qoto.org
2024-07-06T22:13:45Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@interfluidity @Geoffberner That the policy changes with the coalition doesn't mean we can't still pursue the long-term goals cohesively. Most internal regime changes only shift a few issues and aren't major upheavals of the platform (R2016, obviously, being the exception to that rule).But either way, the detriment to long-term policy from a dem regime change is dwarfed by the catastrophe of an electoral loss, and the Biden team just doesn't really seem to get that, as much lip service as they pay to it.
(DIR) Post #AjfVvB2qd77b8sZA3M by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-07-06T23:08:09Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@LouisIngenthron @Geoffberner I certainly agree that, right now, it’d be best if there could be a smooth transition to a stronger candidate with a lot of policy and personnel continuity. I think that’s unusually possible right now, because the Democratic coalition is unusually unified, both against Trump, and broadly in support of Biden’s policy direction. (I don’t think that’s always the case.) 1/
(DIR) Post #AjfWAojvKOLCb5AkE4 by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-07-06T23:10:59Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@LouisIngenthron @Geoffberner I don’t think the issue is that the Biden team doesn’t “get that”. Unfortunately, I think we have almost no visibility into what’s going on in the inner circles. Are they stubborn because I’m wrong, and they just do have an indefensibly high expectation of their odds? Are they held back by personal ambition, the circle around Biden loses opportunity and influence if Biden cedes, while they have ~30% change of keeping it if he doesn’t? 2/
(DIR) Post #AjfWFuyjYjwvOWX2BM by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-07-06T23:11:54Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@LouisIngenthron @Geoffberner Or are they claimimg to be diehards as a negotiating position, so they can negotiate succession on their own terms? That’s my hope, but I don’t know, I don’t think outsiders can. /fin
(DIR) Post #AjfWo34vwyCOMVhrcW by LouisIngenthron@qoto.org
2024-07-06T23:18:03Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@interfluidity @Geoffberner The diehard stance is totally understandable. No matter what's happening behind closed doors, the message will always be a unified "I'm never quitting" right up until the very moment he quits. To do otherwise would be unthinkable.
(DIR) Post #Ajfk81XGhAwwlwoaW0 by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-07-07T01:47:21Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@LouisIngenthron @Geoffberner yes. my view exactly. but that makes it all very nerve wracking from the outside, it’s impossible to distinguish potential fatal pigheadedness from potentially wise mastery of the process.
(DIR) Post #AjfksAez6S4uONQeFU by interfluidity@zirk.us
2024-07-07T01:55:40Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@Geoffberner @LouisIngenthron unfortunately there is an explanation that reconciles competence and clinging, if they are selfish. 30% chance of everything is better than a 100% chance of nothing, from a pure personal influence perspective.mostly i think highly of the Bidenistas, so i am skeptical of this rather terrible view. but the better they play diehard—even if it’s a negotiating tactic and ultimately wise—the harder it becomes, from the outside, to keep the faith.