Post AjSHtDIXMEP78aaxBA by swart@mastodon.cloud
(DIR) More posts by swart@mastodon.cloud
(DIR) Post #AjSH5Uqdpgot5Zq9oG by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T13:50:31Z
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Trump will be sentenced based on his conviction in the NYC election interference case (Where the jury found he paid off a porn star to hide his affair from the public, in violation of either NY or US election law.)The sentence could be anything from nothing to years and years of prison. It's up to the judge. One man. Poor dude. I would not want to be the "decider" on this one! Make a *prediction* about the verdict tomorrow.
(DIR) Post #AjSHN6QVN0lCYk0hg8 by swart@mastodon.cloud
2024-06-30T13:53:44Z
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@futurebird although Cohen got 3 years for his involvement in the same crime
(DIR) Post #AjSHRWvUmoM7uCcK1Y by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T13:54:34Z
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I think it will be Two Years Prison, but he can appeal before he has to go in.
(DIR) Post #AjSHqAAAYaPUXuE6Oe by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T13:58:57Z
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I would make him go in right now. But, I don't think the judge is brave enough to deal with the fall out from making that call. He has done *nothing* to suggest softening the sentence. Every sign he'd do it again. No "it was a mistake" or "it was my first time running a serious campaign and I have learned"No, he has been convicted of being in contempt of the court. So let's see that contempt in the sentence.
(DIR) Post #AjSHtDIXMEP78aaxBA by swart@mastodon.cloud
2024-06-30T13:59:34Z
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@futurebird fortunately I’ll be on a lake 4 days out of cell phone range when the sentencing is announced
(DIR) Post #AjSHwwC8t9XrFeNbma by Frankyt@mastodon.social
2024-06-30T14:00:12Z
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@futurebird I would hope for some prison time but I do not feel the “intestinal fortitude” is alive and well within our judiciary. It would great to have trump spend some quality time in prison with Bubba, discussing daily events.
(DIR) Post #AjSI3Zmsb68lmbjFbc by DrFerrous@hachyderm.io
2024-06-30T14:01:25Z
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@futurebird I honestly don’t have hope about justice being done here. Two years seems low given the crimes, but I have no frame of reference. I also am struggling with the fact that so many people think this buffoon is a good leader.
(DIR) Post #AjSIBofn8X68GbLJ0C by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T14:02:57Z
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The other sentence I could see would be one month of prison AND IT STARTS NOW. Basically make him do the time he deserved for those contempt charges. A month might change the man, as he faces more prison. It would make the country go nuts, but that is happening no matter what the outcome. To not have real consequences is to make a joke of our justice system after it is already dressed up like a clown.
(DIR) Post #AjSIWb8ieHXoNImauW by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T14:06:42Z
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@DrFerrous About 25% of convictions of these charges result in prison. But in none of the similar cases did the defendant end up in contempt of court. For example tax cheats tended not to go to prison... but a woman who stole 30k from her boss went in for a whole year. Is this more ugly than stealing some money? Stealing an election? Making us wonder what would have happened if they didn't do this?It's VERY bad IMO. And he's basically said "I'll f-in do it again"
(DIR) Post #AjSIbGIdYiCFBke5zc by peterdrake@qoto.org
2024-06-30T14:07:30Z
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@futurebird What they mustn't do is give him just a little prison time. A month starting now would might win him the election.... or maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the only people buying his "help, help, I'm being repressed" line are cultists who will definitely vote for him anyway. Maybe the inability to campaign would let people slow down and think about what he's done.
(DIR) Post #AjSIihkZtdSsLuGQ2y by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T14:08:52Z
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@peterdrake He might raise some money. But not the smart money from the rich people who just want those tax cuts. That said I think he'll get to appeal. Even though I do not agree with that.
(DIR) Post #AjSIkq8DhooAvSLADw by kingkaufman@sfba.social
2024-06-30T14:09:17Z
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@futurebird I'm not 100% sure of many things in this life, but I'm 100% sure of something I've been saying for as long as I can remember: Donald Trump will never see the inside of a jail cell.
(DIR) Post #AjSInK03cvmc8jhosi by peterdrake@qoto.org
2024-06-30T14:08:41Z
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@futurebird ... and he's totally a flight risk. If they tell him, "eight years, report next week", he'll fly to Scotland and declare himself President in Exile.
(DIR) Post #AjSInL7tRHe3dKNajY by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T14:09:42Z
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@peterdrake Wouldn't the Brits send him back to us? He'd need to go to Russia or something.
(DIR) Post #AjSIqIWhYtE0RGOUJE by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T14:10:08Z
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@kingkaufman If he looses the election you will be wrong about this.
(DIR) Post #AjSIwZdCsYZ7E5QfxI by kingkaufman@sfba.social
2024-06-30T14:11:01Z
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@futurebird I am not wrong, sorry. I wish I was, but our entire country has been built on the idea of keeping people like him out of jail. Like, that's job 1.
(DIR) Post #AjSIywJRWP6K9MJT3g by tersenurse@mastodon.social
2024-06-30T14:11:16Z
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@futurebird I hate to say this, but I suspect that his sentence will be *nothing*; a stern talking-to followed by a fingers-crossed promise to straighten up and fly right.
(DIR) Post #AjSJ338c5SxGTcCv56 by CatDad@mas.to
2024-06-30T14:11:42Z
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@futurebird I don't think there's a judge in the US that wants to deal with sending a former president to prison, and all the weird issues that raises. I fully expect minimal consequences, because that's how our system works for (allegedly) rich white men.
(DIR) Post #AjSJ6cUD7SXqyb0mvY by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T14:12:48Z
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@kingkaufman There are things he could do to stay out. But he's not doing those things. He's pushing the limits of the contract. You are right that he never *had* to go to prison, but he's testing the limits of the system and there are limits.
(DIR) Post #AjSJEiROrcZnlFYdF2 by icastico@c.im
2024-06-30T14:14:26Z
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@futurebird I think a substantial number of hours of community service is both the most likely and, actually, the most fair for this particular offense (along with a huge fine). For Trump, I think actual manual labor (picking up trash, cleaning at a homeless shelter, etc.) would be more punishing than prison - where he would get special treatment.
(DIR) Post #AjSJH2n0BDPzRwluu8 by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T14:14:21Z
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@tersenurse If that is the case might as well dismiss all the other charges. I could be wrong about prison. But I find this unlikely. The judge would not have many friends in his own profession if he makes this call. This is a Judge Cannon move.
(DIR) Post #AjSJXxY2v5ki7KqHjM by DrFerrous@hachyderm.io
2024-06-30T14:18:10Z
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@futurebird I agree… much worse. I hope his name and position in society are not considered when the sentence is decided.
(DIR) Post #AjSJcZdbFI8BPNdl5s by cadaverous@thicc.horse
2024-06-30T14:18:54Z
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@futurebird community service, but it's the option he hates most but still physically capable of. more time will be added the more he refuses and fucks around.
(DIR) Post #AjSJfNsrP1j3p67P2O by tersenurse@mastodon.social
2024-06-30T14:19:00Z
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@futurebird I'm hoping I'm wrong, but I'm not feeling optimistic. My hope would be that TFG gets from Judge Merchan the same treatment as any other convicted felon, particularly one who is egregiously unrepentent and aggressively disrespectful and threatening. But. We shall see.
(DIR) Post #AjSJhZRbOOjMFwPYQq by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T14:19:53Z
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@kingkaufman Tipping their hat to the power and respectability of The Justice System is the price the great and 'good' must pay for special treatment. If they want to thumb their nose at the power of government AND expect to be treated better than us plebs they need to control that government first. To hand out such favors to Trump is to cede power for no reason. So unless it's His Government he's in real peril of prison for the aggregate of the charges and I think he knows it.
(DIR) Post #AjSJpFPxjaFYShIxxg by mcc@mastodon.social
2024-06-30T14:21:08Z
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@futurebird When Microsoft was on trial in the 90s I believe they were actually performing a strategy of pissing off the judge so much (lying to the court, etc) that when he finally reacted like a human and snapped back at them they could claim to the press/appeals courts that the judge was biased (and it worked, they effectively got the whole thing thrown out on appeal).To be honest I'm not sure I'm right about Microsoft. But I feel pretty certain Trump is doing this.
(DIR) Post #AjSJynSwVuOEfNFhnU by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T14:22:59Z
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@mcc Trump is only concerned with making the election close enough to steal. That's his only real hope of getting through all he faces unscathed. And him not winning, and by a clear margin is probably the only way to stop him.
(DIR) Post #AjSK4g4mtuwdU9l4K0 by kingkaufman@sfba.social
2024-06-30T14:24:00Z
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@futurebird We're just going to have to wait and see. You might be right and I hope you are, but I would bet folding money you're not.
(DIR) Post #AjSKCrnfCD5kA9eZ9s by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T14:24:59Z
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@mcc Although, I think people underestimate how complex it will be for him to untangle and suppress the cases even with the power of the president. I think it can be done but it will not be simple and it may not even be bloodless. Because ... oh jeez. Because of "states rights" !
(DIR) Post #AjSKthDgPQSXnhFKoy by malin@dice.camp
2024-06-30T14:32:10Z
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@peterdrake @futurebird keep your used presidents out of our fields, he's ruined enough acres of endangered wildlife here already.
(DIR) Post #AjSKtiHGTav155vi2i by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T14:33:16Z
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@malin @peterdrake We are doing our best to find a place to put him... OK? Not even Rikers really wants him. It's not that simple. :(
(DIR) Post #AjSLNa4tWhRwL2Nysq by mcc@mastodon.social
2024-06-30T14:37:19Z
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@futurebird Of course in this case the judge "snapping" might just refer to— as you brought up in your earlier post— the judge using their normal discretion to give a sharper sentence (such as selecting jail instead of probation) when the defendant is distinctly non-repentant, as would be normal practice. This judge has been AFAICT extremely level headed. But right wing media will *cast* a level-headed judge going "because of how you acted, you get this sentence" as the judge singling Trump out…
(DIR) Post #AjSLNodRP3OzUEelfs by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T14:38:40Z
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@mcc He will appeal no matter what. An appeal might reduce a sentence, but the judge is out of hazard now of being totally overturned as long as the sentence is something someone has gotten before.
(DIR) Post #AjSLVIMTHPWphyHldw by queenofnewyork@newsie.social
2024-06-30T14:40:02Z
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@futurebird @peterdrake He has said if he’s facing prison time he definitely would not fly to Russia. So he’s definitely considering it. For the sentence, I think it won’t be jail time. I could be wrong, but this being his first criminal conviction (😡) means he is not getting anywhere near the max. I could be wrong. I want to be wrong. But I am assuming all we get from this is priors that will make his next convictions result in harsher sentences.
(DIR) Post #AjSLi4lL9S0vIS0oMa by mcc@mastodon.social
2024-06-30T14:42:22Z
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@futurebird *nod*
(DIR) Post #AjSLqrqqWZFPrLmP6u by benroyce@mastodon.social
2024-06-30T14:43:55Z
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@futurebirdTwo common takes:1. He'll get some time, based on his behavior during the trial2. He'll get no time, he's rich and famousI'd like to add a 3rd rationale:The political existence of Donald Trump is a failure of NY justiceHe's flouted the laws of NY for so long, and a lot of NYers really resent him for thatThey also feel some penance is due: they should have put Trump away a long time ago, and saved the world this griefSo maybe what's coming is: "enough"And prison it is
(DIR) Post #AjSM8W8O0TJViYOrKq by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T14:47:11Z
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@benroyce This is the decision of a judge, so who will he look to, to know if he made a good call? Who is he talking it over with?He'll want the respect of other judges, of "great legal minds" he'll want everyone to say he did a good fair job.Everyone won't say that, and he must know this. But I think the kind of people who's opinion will matter to him would be disgusted with "nothing" -- and critical of anything that seems vindictive or anything but cool blooded.
(DIR) Post #AjSMNky78RbE4LrV1U by benroyce@mastodon.social
2024-06-30T14:49:53Z
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@futurebird i agreei understand the common understanding "rich and famous get away with crime"but this case is special in a number of ways, for a number of reasonsi really will have no surprise in my reaction if they announce prison time for trump
(DIR) Post #AjSNpSNDxqvySbNZiq by callisto@disabled.social
2024-06-30T15:03:57Z
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@benroyce @futurebird Another consideration is that the heavier the sentence, the more likely SCOTUS is to grant him immunity.
(DIR) Post #AjSNpTQo21ORk03wwa by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T15:05:36Z
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@callisto @benroyce They have already written that brief I think... Which also comes out tomorrow?It'd be wild if they changed it based on the sentence in a case where it doesn't even apply since many of the crimes occurred before he was elected. But, I have no faith in that court so yeah yeah could be could be.
(DIR) Post #AjSOWG5bVpneoVXyj2 by stalbaum@mastodon.social
2024-06-30T15:13:49Z
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@futurebird @callisto @benroyce It could simply be that under originalism the founders really didn't believe in democracy and the constitution was mere virtue signaling. Such is the solipsism of MAGA justices!
(DIR) Post #AjSOrGiyLYusrdynqq by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-06-30T15:17:37Z
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@callisto @benroyce I expect the SC to kick the can on immunity. They can't really grant it since it would be granted to all presidents, and that could get messy. But they can delay the case past the election by dragging their feet. So that is what they will do IMO.
(DIR) Post #AjSP23GkiGqqJqvDFI by benroyce@mastodon.social
2024-06-30T15:19:08Z
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@Pagan_Animist @futurebird i grew up in the tri-state, lived in NYC (brooklyn, midtown) for over a decade, commuted to NYC from the hudson valley, and now i live in western NY:trump was known as a sleazebag loudmouth who didn't pay his bills since the 1980snevermind they also knew that trump's dad was a racist slumlordbut then the "apprentice" tv show happenedsuddenly a fake national understanding that trump is a "genius businessman" swamped out NYer common knowledge he is a dbag
(DIR) Post #AjSQ0crnUWdg688JoO by ptmesis@writing.exchange
2024-06-30T15:30:33Z
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@futurebird I genuinely think Merchan will make the call without considering the consequences to himself. He has shown himself to be pretty objective so far.It seems unlikely that Trump wouldn't get bail though, but that's just because of what happens in comparable cases (or what passes for comparable here).
(DIR) Post #AjSQAuQZ3VwZSQIZwO by benroyce@mastodon.social
2024-06-30T15:31:25Z
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@Pagan_Animist @futurebird some trivia i learned from my days living in the #hudsonvalley(i ran into into #PeteSeeger ("If I Had a Hammer") a lot, a wave and a smile. no joke, he would always be in town doing errands, as well as his local little concerts and appearances in local festivals, well into advanced age):Pete's friend #WoodyGuthrie ("This Land Is Your Land") rented from #Trump's dad, #FredTrump, the racist slumlordWoody wrote a song about him in 1954 😆 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Man_Trump
(DIR) Post #AjSSFZfbrGlwR5gjNQ by Shammusomuffihan@mastodon.social
2024-06-30T15:55:40Z
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@futurebird I voted for some prison because Judge Merchan has been obnoxiously fair throughout this thing. If this were some trust fund brat doing something similar, and was equally unrepentant, I think that's what he'd do.
(DIR) Post #AjSUPzv1Jz14eGziRk by alper@sfba.social
2024-06-30T16:19:57Z
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@futurebird he should either be locked up for his functional life or none at all. See erdogan , they turned his "cell" to a luxury political war room where he received guests to build his support while being a "victim". Those people don't experience things like prison like powerless people do.
(DIR) Post #AjSWVC1hvpldYZj9w8 by paulc@mstdn.social
2024-06-30T16:43:19Z
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@futurebird Merchen seems to understand that fining wealthy people is meaningless most of the time. And that Trump regrets nothing.
(DIR) Post #AjSX5vp38pBq0zKDTM by jeana@triangletoot.party
2024-06-30T16:49:56Z
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@futurebird re: "verdict tomorrow" - I thought sentencing was July 11th; has that changed/am I missing something? I admittedly have not been paying super close attention 😅
(DIR) Post #AjSYTAZsY0JEONsE4G by Osteopenia_Powers@newsie.social
2024-06-30T17:05:20Z
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@futurebird What a great idea, and why not both? The month of contempt NOW, because the trial is over, and the two years, despite it being a first conviction because he shows aggression rather than contrition.
(DIR) Post #AjSxhywkZV0BW6jPBw by nazokiyoubinbou@mastodon.social
2024-06-30T21:48:10Z
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@futurebird I accidentally misread this and clicked the wrong thing. I wish we could change our response within a short period or something on polls. :sadness:
(DIR) Post #AjUOT0MBwBhJT3fqyW by redpy5@sunbeam.city
2024-07-01T14:22:40Z
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@futurebird Turns out about 2/3rds of people who voted on this have more faith than me in our institutions. Cause while I would want one of the above (considering our carceral justice system), I expect he will receive no real sentencing beyond some monetary penalty. The courts have definitely eroded my trust in them over the last several years.
(DIR) Post #AjUT5WR1WKcXmCYXlg by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-07-01T15:14:30Z
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@KathyLK I still think prison is possible. But he will be allowed to appeal before he must serve.
(DIR) Post #AjUTbbQmTrFuXQjw24 by futurebird@sauropods.win
2024-07-01T15:20:17Z
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@KathyLK He didn't do that because if he had the trial would still be going on. He was expedient and ensured that the trial ran its course.Trump *wanted* that gag order jail time because it would have caused endless delay and drama. I think it was the correct call, and when you look at the other calls from the judge you see care to avoid ... nonsense.