Post AdXW7161KiLWSusxHc by waldoj@mastodon.social
 (DIR) More posts by waldoj@mastodon.social
 (DIR) Post #AdXW6w5TxHwcvnaxFY by waldoj@mastodon.social
       2024-01-05T13:38:48Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       Every month! Every single month! For *years*! Every month economists say “I was wrong last month, but *this* month is the month hiring will slow.” And every month newspapers dutifully report “this will be the month,” and then report the next day “never mind, we were wrong again.” It’s amazing!
       
 (DIR) Post #AdXW6wxMix2vcunzEm by ken@toots.schwanksta.com
       2024-01-05T15:19:58Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @waldoj predictions vs reality over some timeline would be a fun chart for someone to make
       
 (DIR) Post #AdXW6xtrDTpmYKAhPM by waldoj@mastodon.social
       2024-01-05T13:43:34Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       If this were in a work of fiction, nobody would believe it.I want to go to a labor economics conference just to see what the industry has to say for itself. How you can consistently get such a basic forecast wrong *every month* for *years* without eventually deciding that what you’re doing is bad and you should stop? I mean, it’s not even really a forecast, it’s a conclusion about what has already happened!
       
 (DIR) Post #AdXW70piJLIneLFvrk by waldoj@mastodon.social
       2024-01-05T13:47:05Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       This reminds me of a related phenomenon (but that I think has a different cause): cost and duration estimates for outsourced major government projects. If I were estimating the cost of my 54th overpass and every other one had wound up costing 80% more than I’d estimated, I think I I’d start adding 80% to my estimates. But, nope! They keep being surprised by cost overruns, every time! For decades!
       
 (DIR) Post #AdXW7161KiLWSusxHc by waldoj@mastodon.social
       2024-01-05T13:49:46Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       (In project planning cost underestimates, noted project planning scholar Bent Flyvjbjerg has demonstrated that the underlying cause is “strategic misrepresentation,” aka “lying.” I know nothing of labor economics and can’t guess at what their deal is.) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09654310701747936
       
 (DIR) Post #AdXW8QiJZZfiCsTGYC by zubakskees@mastodon.social
       2024-01-05T13:42:17Z
       
       0 likes, 1 repeats
       
       @waldoj A question I've been pondering lately: How much of Americans' disregard for expertise can be traced to think tanks, lobbyists and economists?