Post AdJgp4M6r2j0e2cHke by Alon@mastodon.social
(DIR) More posts by Alon@mastodon.social
(DIR) Post #AdJg9mm9JORmFT6vvE by Alon@mastodon.social
2023-12-29T20:37:45Z
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1. Since the ground war in Gaza began on 27.10, 168 IDF soldiers have died. But Hamas claims 1,600, and this is a good explanation for why there's no ceasefire. Israel can't hide this many bodies of its own soldiers. 1,600 goes well beyond a lie and gets into gross military illiteracy. Wars happens when two sides have different views of their capabilities; Hamas says it's winning symmetrically, which is Baghdad Bob levels of batshit. No wonder it said no to Egypt's generous ceasefire offer.
(DIR) Post #AdJg9nfRzmgP0yz67U by Alon@mastodon.social
2023-12-29T20:42:58Z
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2. Relatedly, this makes me more confident in the IDF claim of having killed 8,000 Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters and civilian looters (including 1,500 in Israel on 7-8.10). The main cause for skepticism of that figure is that the IDF is claiming to have killed around 20% of the combined strength of Hamas and PIJ, but Hamas is not acting like a force that's lost 20% of its strength. But then a Hamas that claims to have killed 1,600 might just be detached enough from reality to keep at it.
(DIR) Post #AdJg9oUqufndaP29Eu by Alon@mastodon.social
2023-12-29T20:48:34Z
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3. Russia has tried keeping a lid on reports of Russian military casualties, which I think is why people so readily dismiss IDF reports of its own casualties, but even Russia couldn't prevent Prigozhin from reporting the real(-ish) numbers. Israel has a free press that constantly criticizes the IDF. Where the Russian Armed Forces recruit from poor, peripheral regions, the IDF recruits from the center of society (Gadi Eizenkot's son died in battle in Gaza); it can hide 20 bodies, not 1,432.
(DIR) Post #AdJg9qG2Mj8Z327LQO by Alon@mastodon.social
2023-12-29T20:54:26Z
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4. The alt-left doesn't know how a modern militarized society looks; since long before the war, I've wanted to find a Korean, a Finn, etc. and do a Twitch discussion of this for SF/F worldbuilders. @bretdevereaux had to explain how consensual the Roman draft ("dilectus") was, while a Finn gave the modern analogy in comments. But Yahya Sinwar learned Hebrew in his many years in prison. He knows. If he thinks he can sell 1,600, he lost it; no wonder he said no to an attractive ceasefire. /end
(DIR) Post #AdJgp3TA9KlxtcuP6e by SamTheGeek@mastodon.social
2023-12-29T21:30:31Z
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@Alon wait what ceasefire offer?
(DIR) Post #AdJgp4M6r2j0e2cHke by Alon@mastodon.social
2023-12-29T21:32:21Z
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@SamTheGeek Egypt proposed a ceasefire in which Israel leaves Gaza, Hamas and PIJ release all hostages, Israel does mass release of Palestinian prisoners (I think not all), and Hamas agrees to a technocratic government of Gaza rather than sole control, which Israeli observers noted would still leave it in charge of the coercion apparatus, giving it similar status to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hamas still said no.
(DIR) Post #AdJgp5PKwWttuL8NQ8 by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-12-29T23:13:55.442166Z
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@Alon1. Wouldn't that be essentially return to pre-2007 state? In 2005 Israel already did unilateral disengagement from Gaza, Hamas then took power by force by killing Fatah supporters, so could be just a replay of that situation.2. Except since 2019 there are protests in #Gaza against #Hamas rule due to economic decline they caused. This is a significant difference to 2005, when they enjoyed popular support thanks to delusional promises.3. There's lots of cash flows that made Hamas leaders billionaires, and their continuity may depend on keeping the war going rather than agreeing on another ceasefire.If I had to bet, I'd bet on the last one as the most plausible cause.@SamTheGeek
(DIR) Post #AdJgsOuGu2S9FeBTbE by DiegoBeghin@mastodon.social
2023-12-29T21:07:31Z
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@Alon Yeah, I've seen some delusional comments by alt-leftists claiming the war will be over when the human burden on Israelis is too high.
(DIR) Post #AdJgsPqlOZF0B3YBlo by Alon@mastodon.social
2023-12-29T21:24:38Z
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@DiegoBeghin Yeah, so, morons on Twitter are one thing, but when Hamas is acting like the red triangle emoji, something is deeply wrong.
(DIR) Post #AdJgsQaqdE6WTz6zbM by bdsint@mastodon.social
2023-12-29T21:49:56Z
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@Alon @DiegoBeghin Even if they have huge losses, I don't think Hamas has any incentive to act and say any differently, from their perspective.I think that only changes if and when the leaders feel they are about to be killed or captured. Until then, they continue to claim to be winning.And even if they lose 90% of their force, they will still claim victory at the end of the war just for surviving.
(DIR) Post #AdJgsRNPiex6ubpmIi by Alon@mastodon.social
2023-12-29T21:50:56Z
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@bdsint @DiegoBeghin They think they're going to keep control of territory if there's no ceasefire; what pro-Hamas media publishes (portraying the IDF as bogged down like Russia in Ukraine) reinforces this view of Hamas.
(DIR) Post #AdJgsSIqH8tDmihdoW by BenRossTransit@mastodon.social
2023-12-29T22:19:39Z
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@Alon @bdsint @DiegoBeghin There is a real derangement at work here, as shown by the behavior on Oct 7. The leaders (the ones in Gaza, not the ones in Qatar) may prefer to die in their bunkers rather than surrender.
(DIR) Post #AdJgwktZ5kJibdviz2 by Alon@mastodon.social
2023-12-29T22:59:10Z
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@BenRossTransit @bdsint @DiegoBeghin I guess there's, analogously, the alt-left mentality that Russia is not really bogged down in Ukraine, it's just holding back out of generosity and is otherwise symmetrically dominant as in Afghanistan or like the US in Vietnam. But in addition to the grifters (Scott Ritter, etc.) there are also the Russian milbloggers, who, this year, have been pretty right about events. Hamas just doesn't seem to have any of that.
(DIR) Post #AdJhmBZzdiVe8QIcim by ifilipau@mas.to
2023-12-29T23:22:10Z
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@Alon Re IDF losses. IDF soldiers were adding context: Israel is relatively small country, and (almost) everybody knows (almost) everybody. There is no way to lie about their own casualties, since it'd be too obvious to Israelis themselves.
(DIR) Post #AdJkkw3SAtqDYgAsr2 by Alon@mastodon.social
2023-12-29T23:38:35Z
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@kravietz @SamTheGeek 1. Yes, exactly - that's why Israeli Blob-ish pundits were negative on the deal (Israel didn't get a chance to reject it - Hamas did so first).2. Yes, but they don't need to be popular in Gaza - Hezbollah isn't popular outside its own community. They're popular in the West Bank and can just coerce any technocrat.3. The cash flows come either way - Qatar isn't going to turn off the tap if there's a ceasefire.