Post AcmjXKIPL7BTvKyuH2 by ngt@noagendasocial.com
(DIR) More posts by ngt@noagendasocial.com
(DIR) Post #AcmeQ8QwXsopKrj2Fk by NBS@noagendasocial.com
2023-12-14T00:41:41Z
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The Fed was expected to keep rates unchanged, and they did just that. So why did equities, gold, bitcoin, and many other assets ramp absolutely ramp after the meeting?In short: the Fed announced its intention for additional rate cuts in 2024.Pictured is my SOFR dashboard. The SOFR yield curve shows the market's expectations for the future SOFR rate (proxy to the Fed policy rate). This graph shows the market's expectations from yesterday to today.Continued...
(DIR) Post #AcmeRiUtwkDNTWKa1o by NBS@noagendasocial.com
2023-12-14T00:41:58Z
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Note the curve moved significantly lower today compared to yesterday. This is the market aggressively repricing the future rate lower, therefore pricing in additional future Fed rate cuts. This was a result of Powell suggesting up to 75bps of additional cuts in 2024, which was entirely unexpected.Will this happen? Who's to say, but the market is pricing this expectation now, which led to an aggressive repricing of risk assets higher given the Fed's pivot.Continued...
(DIR) Post #AcmeSOCEuWF6nnvGls by NBS@noagendasocial.com
2023-12-14T00:42:05Z
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Note the curve moved significantly lower today compared to yesterday. This is the market aggressively repricing the future rate lower, therefore pricing in additional future Fed rate cuts. This was a result of Powell suggesting up to 75bps of additional cuts in 2024, which was entirely unexpected.Will this happen? Who's to say, but the market is pricing this expectation now, which led to an aggressive repricing of risk assets higher given the Fed's pivot.Continued...
(DIR) Post #Acmegm2r2SkKp0OMz2 by NBS@noagendasocial.com
2023-12-14T00:44:41Z
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Specifically, look at the red boxed area on the curve. This is the market's expectation for the rate at year end 2024:Yesterday: 4.25%Today: nearly 3.75%This is only 50bps due to slight differences in SOFR vs Fed Fund futures and some variance in the market's opinion on the pricing, but this 50 - 75 bps movement in one day is massive.Hence the rally in equities, gold, bonds, bitcoin, etc. These big moves in the bond market as a result of shifting Fed outlook result in large market moves.
(DIR) Post #Acmg1LPBNdE8EdCyyu by MrMaxPowers247@noagendasocial.com
2023-12-14T00:59:36Z
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@NBS My sister thinks by 25 we'll see 4's again for home loans. I doubt it will go that low but I think mid 5's is probably what we'll see next year. Get ready for house prices to skyrocket.What do you think about silver prices right now and for next year?
(DIR) Post #AcmjXKIPL7BTvKyuH2 by ngt@noagendasocial.com
2023-12-14T01:39:00Z
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@NBS excellent commentary as always!
(DIR) Post #AcmlscvtRXAHiMjdRY by NBS@noagendasocial.com
2023-12-14T02:05:15Z
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@MrMaxPowers247 I'm always long a bit of silver and gold, mostly physical, and I won't change that anytime soon.As for the next year though, I'm not sure it would see the same rally equities would if the Fed truly does cut this aggressively. But to me, it's still worth holding.
(DIR) Post #AcmmQYHZEv4H8a38hE by MrMaxPowers247@noagendasocial.com
2023-12-14T02:11:23Z
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@NBS I've been thinking about starting to buy silver (physical) and hold. I'm almost all real estate so I need to start diversifying myself a bit more. Thanks for your input!
(DIR) Post #AcmoyNEN2FaQcEoFiC by damaskin@noagendasocial.com
2023-12-14T02:39:55Z
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@NBS The whole “market tries to predict what the central banks will do“ situation is fucked up. I also think that insider trading should be legal to improve price discovery. Dark exchanges might pose a problem.
(DIR) Post #AcmwqdMBzgw5wlHwi8 by blakemichigan@noagendasocial.com
2023-12-14T04:08:09Z
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@NBS always strange to me how the markets will account for something that hasn't happened.