Post AcgibogT29c2QV3KN6 by PaulWermer@sfba.social
(DIR) More posts by PaulWermer@sfba.social
(DIR) Post #Acg3wz27ecxmU79kMC by danilo@hachyderm.io
2023-12-09T19:00:12Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
When I got to San Francisco in 2010, I really wanted to do it allBuild a startup, create change through technology.But the more I learned of the culture, the less I wanted to succeed according to its rubric. The turning point for me was AirbnbAround 2011, Airbnb was REALLY taking off. All the benefits of a software business, none of the drawbacks of a real estate business. The best of all worlds.Except…
(DIR) Post #Acg3x0023ssxTvBajo by danilo@hachyderm.io
2023-12-09T19:03:44Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
The primary externality Airbnb generated was RISKThis exploded into public awareness when a host found her apartment absolutely destroyed by a guestWhich, you know, of course: a system like that is bound to fail spectacularly on occasion.But what shocked me was how unprepared Airbnb was to make their host whole again. They were dodging accountability and only public shame, orchestrated by the host’s desperate PR campaign, could make the difference
(DIR) Post #Acg3x0uOgJyKIjYbaq by danilo@hachyderm.io
2023-12-09T19:06:34Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
It drove me bonkers.These guys were getting absolutely rich off the backs of the communities that hosted them.And they couldn’t take care of someone when things went wrong?It was such a breach of the basic, reciprocal, implied social contract we should all adhere to.And what I was learning was that all of Silicon Valley business culture was premised on that kind of breach. Move fast and break society if it earns you a better valuation next roundI didn’t like that at all.
(DIR) Post #Acg3x1lDVwDswYGmvI by danilo@hachyderm.io
2023-12-09T19:10:21Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
Man, Steve Huffman tried to open the door for me, too.Sometimes I look back and wonder if I fucked up. He’d invite me to hang at the beach with his YC buds.But I just couldn’t get excited about them and their world. I couldn’t play the game the way they all expected. It wasn’t for me.We haven’t talked in years. I got pretty mad at him and Alexis, after they returned to Reddit. I felt they had a greater responsibility to community health.At the time, Steve… disagreed.
(DIR) Post #Acg3x2QL337H05Vd1E by danilo@hachyderm.io
2023-12-09T19:14:51Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
Today all those guys are RICHI mean, beyond fuck-you money, this is fuck-everyone money. And powerful, in that they can do more or less what they want any given year, and have access to anyone else they need to meet or influence.Meanwhile, I’m not rich.It feels like I could have been, if I’d made different choices. But I couldn’t do that any more than I could have sprouted wings.It’s one of the enduring heartbreaks of my life that I found the Valley so inimical to my values.
(DIR) Post #Acg3x3Cu8TxrQiEPia by danilo@hachyderm.io
2023-12-09T19:25:22Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
So now I live in the woods, almost as far from San Francisco as you can get and still be in the US.I’ve got a fiber connection and half a prayer everything I know about software and technology strategy can still matter, can still pay some bills.It’s hard to spend a lifetime really learning something, knowing it down to your bones, only to find the Mecca of its practice so hostile to the vision of the future you hold dear.It’s been quite a walk through the desert.
(DIR) Post #Acg3x3tRaJzZYe8O1Y by glyph@mastodon.social
2023-12-09T20:58:29Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@danilo I am in this picture and I do not like it.I still live in the area, I haven’t had that big falling out with anyone personally, but the dawning realization that the engine of “tech” was just breaking existing laws with technobabble obfuscation (a partial list: illegal cab company, illegal hotel, illegal parking garage, illegal rocket launches, wildcat bank, mass art theft) and it only works because law enforcement is perpetually asleep at the wheel … makes it hard to maintain enthusiasm
(DIR) Post #Acg3x4corcHvpNMcka by danilo@hachyderm.io
2023-12-09T21:30:45Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@glyph yeahWAY too much of the last cycle’s “innovation” was software outrunning sleeping regulationIt’s depressing stuff
(DIR) Post #Acg3x5L8CrjY2o60oq by glyph@mastodon.social
2023-12-10T01:42:20Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@danilo I obviously think the crime-doers doing the crimes are to blame here.But the sleeping regulators are also an important part of the problem.If you are an executive who is not comfortable with rampant criminal behavior, but you’re also not an incorruptible paragon of righteousness (as most of us are not), there’s only so long you can watch the rest of the industry do a bunch of crimes before you can start wondering “wait, are these actually crimes or is it just acceptable CODB?”
(DIR) Post #Acg3x67hIIa8TQonWC by glyph@mastodon.social
2023-12-10T01:42:21Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@danilo If everyone is willing to externalize their costs but you, you get out-competed and replaced by someone else who is willing to do that externalizing. The incentives make the environment more than the personalities do.
(DIR) Post #Acg3x723ujfVIFBoNE by danilo@hachyderm.io
2023-12-10T03:26:57Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@glyph this is real as hell and especially visible with the self driving car fiascoThe shit is out there running people over and it takes how long to shut it down? It’s pathetic
(DIR) Post #Acg3x7mV84obcGutl2 by clive@saturation.social
2023-12-10T20:23:45Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@danilo @glyph Yep -- as I was reading @danilo's original thread, and that anecdote of realizing the Airbnb founders were happy to let their users/community bear the costs of entirely-foreseeable problems caused by Airbnb existing, my first thought was that one trend that unified the big Silicon Valley firms that emerged in the late 00s was ...... "shrugging off externalities" as a business planA venerable strategy in business, bien surBut rediscovered with exuberance by those guys
(DIR) Post #Acg4CL3S3rgj7v6FbE by clive@saturation.social
2023-12-10T20:26:39Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@danilo @glyph One of the most interesting things to me has been watching the rare times when regulators actually do clearly see the potentially-malign externalities that are outgassing off a tech business model ...... and pass regulations to account for themI'm thinking of how many US cities began more-tightly regulating electric-scooter firms, and even (eventually) AirbnbThis regulatory action has, a far as I can tell, mostly been at the local or state level ...
(DIR) Post #Acg4Pdzkx7vtdMiRsW by clive@saturation.social
2023-12-10T20:29:04Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@danilo @glyph ... possibly because "local" is where government is most responsive to actual citizen needs (I say "most" not to say "it's super great and totes responsive", but to distinguish it from the federal level, which can be sclerotic) ...... and also because all the ill effects of those tech business models were highly *visible*, and perhaps more importantly *physically* palpable, on a local level:Scooters lying askew on the streets; housing taken off the rental market
(DIR) Post #Acg6WwVmhsCKzuIxuq by sjuvonen@infosec.exchange
2023-12-10T20:52:38Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@clive @danilo @glyph Shrugging off externalities AT SCALE.
(DIR) Post #Acg6soiQNC1JBmeCsS by clive@saturation.social
2023-12-10T20:56:42Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@sjuvonen @danilo @glyph Correct!Blitzscaled externalitiesGrowth-hacked!
(DIR) Post #Acg7LqxD85NOWtPQpM by Npars01@mstdn.social
2023-12-10T20:59:32Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@clive @danilo @glyph AirBnB triggered an explosion in home prices, capital gains tax evasion, foreign money laundering into residential real estate, and the commodification of residential housing by private equity Wall Streeters like Blackrock.As global anti-democracy movements grow, a flight of capital out of repressive regimes like China & Iran accelerated housing unaffordability Homelessness blew up because housing became treated like commercial real estate.
(DIR) Post #Acg9CaNNb1jGPrMGeG by PaulWermer@sfba.social
2023-12-10T21:22:39Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@clive @danilo @glyph "shrugging off externalities". - I recall discussions with a VC guy, who was busily and regularly asserting that we shouldn't ignore the positive externalities. #sheesh
(DIR) Post #AcgC3bAPaPVc7ohNeC by glyph@mastodon.social
2023-12-10T21:04:12Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@Npars01 @clive @danilo it’s a *little* unfair to put that all on AirBnB. They were one accelerant among many, on a market with some pretty bad fundamentals
(DIR) Post #AcgC3bwchA4cXLFsnI by Npars01@mstdn.social
2023-12-10T21:10:32Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@glyph @clive @danilo It's not all on AirBnB, but buying multiple homes for short-term rentals became a gold-rush amongst the tax-evasion crowd.
(DIR) Post #AcgC3cfdzm5OmyJpy4 by glyph@mastodon.social
2023-12-10T21:17:07Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@Npars01 @clive @danilo no disagreement there.
(DIR) Post #AcgC3dQ5D7EV702vLs by clive@saturation.social
2023-12-10T21:54:41Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@glyph @Npars01 @danilo Yep yepThese grimy little ploys all played a partThe failure of (far too many, most) countries worldwide to build enough housing is such a crapshow, and one with lots of blame to go around
(DIR) Post #AcgCdy6plTWphjMrdw by clive@saturation.social
2023-12-10T22:00:41Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@PaulWermer @danilo @glyph True enoughIn the early days of the first e-scooter-for-hire boom, I spoke to a CEO for one of them, who was an exuberant 20something dude"You know, Clive," he told me, "what I'm realizing is that sidewalks are the hot new platform"That comment ... has stuck with me
(DIR) Post #AcgFLq4DE7gPPaBjY8 by PaulWermer@sfba.social
2023-12-10T22:31:35Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@clive @danilo @glyph indeed. And with a balance- impaired space, that sidewalk action is scary. We've experienced it. And we are not alone; there is an aging population, and the sidewalk e- scooters are are a threat.
(DIR) Post #AcgHlWlJp8B4ybjC7s by wirepair@mastodon.social
2023-12-10T22:58:34Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@clive @PaulWermer @danilo @glyph I’m amazed your eyes didn’t roll back into your brain and kill you instantly, congrats on surviving that.
(DIR) Post #AcgRip9jyiGWhHV6g4 by gooba42@mastodon.social
2023-12-11T00:50:08Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@clive @danilo @glyph Fundamentally, all of the large businesses that run the world now are built on socializing externalities and privatizing profits. Tech just provided them an opportunity to do the same without having to build any manufacturing capacity or maintain as much plant overhead.Now they can get started to generate pollution, consume electricity, destroy communities and pervert the real estate market with a handful of code and a single download server.
(DIR) Post #Acght2yZ3AdbikAaAq by clive@saturation.social
2023-12-11T03:51:20Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@gooba42 @danilo @glyph yep yep
(DIR) Post #AcgiV2RjT2Gl5Avd5s by clive@saturation.social
2023-12-11T03:56:06Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@PaulWermer @danilo @glyph Yep -- particularly the ones from dockless on-demand firms that get left willy-nilly on the sidewalk, falling over and turning into obstacle courses
(DIR) Post #AcgibogT29c2QV3KN6 by PaulWermer@sfba.social
2023-12-10T23:26:43Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@clive @danilo @glyph though, to be fair, we were out one day and met a young couple riding e-scooters on the San Francisco sidewalk. All of us waiting at a loooong light. Nice people. Why were they on the sidewalk? Well, they tried the street ( the label says not to ride on the sidewalk (giggle)). And the drivers terrified them. So, onto the sidewalk. And guess what? They hated the e-scooter experience, would never do it again. (Speaking as one who bicycle commuted through a Chicago winter, I stopped bicycling because of safety concerns/ bad drivers.)Think of how much better it would be, if instead of thinking of the sidewalk as a hot new property to squat on, the brilliant tech mind had actively engaged with the city to develop good protected lanes for bikes & scooters? They'd be heroes. And their political clout would have accelerated development of a safe, fast travel network.#BikeTooter #bikelanes #micromobility #VultureCapital
(DIR) Post #AcgibppilEbnzUOEQy by clive@saturation.social
2023-12-11T03:58:29Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@PaulWermer @danilo @glyph Agreed on all these pointsAnd in truth, the interesting thing about cities taking a regulatory interest in these scooter-on-demand firms ...... and reining them in from their early-years model of "just dump a bunch of scooters on the roads and wait for the city to sue us" ...... is some of the scooter companies got a bit wiser, and have been actively participating in the push for more bike lanesSince that's what scooters need
(DIR) Post #AchyzBUuAlGIGZlk8W by artemesia@techhub.social
2023-12-11T04:12:03Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@PaulWermer @clive @danilo @glyph > the brilliant tech mind had actively engaged with the city to develop good protected lanes for bikes & scooters?What's the (alleged) business model? The e-scooter and bike rental startups are in the game to sell their stock, not to improve the world.
(DIR) Post #AchyzDOx5rgkAh018S by PaulWermer@sfba.social
2023-12-11T04:39:41Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@artemesia @clive @danilo @glyph simple business case: more demand from potential riders who would ride if not forced into auto lanes & congestion., and won't ride on sidewalks because in many cases they are either too badly maintained, or they don't want to risk pedestrian traffic, or even no sidewalks .
(DIR) Post #AchyzEeaRDmy3TK18y by artemesia@techhub.social
2023-12-11T04:47:59Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@PaulWermer @clive @danilo @glyph That's not a business model. How do you make money?
(DIR) Post #AchyzFc8rnQZ2BBZyK by glyph@mastodon.social
2023-12-11T05:05:56Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@artemesia @PaulWermer @clive @danilo not sure what you are getting at here. You make money in this case by renting scooters. The “model” is just rental; these are strategies to boost demand. Most businesses do have a productive economic activity underlying them, even if it is buried under a pile of perverse economic incentives and crenellations of weird anticompetitive behavior
(DIR) Post #AchyzHAv3yq9sKSrom by artemesia@techhub.social
2023-12-11T05:12:11Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@glyph @PaulWermer @clive @danilo No, a simple shop makes money by renting scooters. A company distributing 2500 scooters across a city (and abusing public infrastructure by doing things like tying up every bike rack near popular attractions with truck-moved scooters at 7AM) is in the business of selling stock.My question to the OP is, how are these tech geniuses supposed to make money by "the brilliant tech mind had actively engaged with the city to develop good protected lanes for bikes & scooters?"? There's no growth story, no greater fool to sell to, no elevator pitch, and as my largely rhetorical question pointed up, no business model.
(DIR) Post #AchyzIFD5VrnBvTo92 by clive@saturation.social
2023-12-11T18:36:09Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@artemesia @glyph @PaulWermer @danilo Oh, they certainly may be intending a greater-fool stock dump, and not a sustainable businessthat's certainly the arc of most of these businessesbut in the interim they've been occasionally quite useful in making city councillors take a closer look at rolling out more bike lanes
(DIR) Post #Aci94DbskEbRo94V8a by friendlymike@androiddev.social
2023-12-11T20:31:29Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@danilo I wonder are there people out there not disappointed by big tech and what it did to a generation of hackers