Post AcWnQaITqXMSDASLMu by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
 (DIR) More posts by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
 (DIR) Post #AcVl9ftTOIFha0bmJE by randahl@mastodon.social
       2023-12-05T20:41:01Z
       
       1 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @anderspuck I do not know, if we mere mortals can request topics for your upcoming episodes, but here is something I would like to know:— What happens if Putin mobilizes right after his “relection” in march?— Should we expect, Ukraine can meet any size of mobilization, as long as they have military and financial support from the west?— Could a mobilization be of such a magnitude, NATO would have to actively support Ukraine (no fly zone, etc.), for Ukraine to be able to stand the pressure?
       
 (DIR) Post #AcVl9ioyVTR8evWjDM by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
       2023-12-05T21:06:36Z
       
       1 likes, 1 repeats
       
       @randahl These are good questions. In general I think the more important unknown is how big a mobilization it will take before the Russian society begins to crack. If Putin felt secure about that question, he would have mobilized more long ago.
       
 (DIR) Post #AcVlknxeMLOxJaGcPw by vl@snarthelg.no
       2023-12-05T21:13:20Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @anderspuck @randahl To which extent do you think that question depends on compounding factors, such as an election? Is there more room for noise during an election?
       
 (DIR) Post #AcVlr6LCw5yc3aHwHY by feijoa@mastodon.org.uk
       2023-12-05T21:14:31Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @anderspuck @randahl An answer to that might lie here https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/28/alternate-reality-how-russian-society-learned-to-stop-worrying-about-war-pub-91118
       
 (DIR) Post #AcVniUhvAmvWvhw5uS by notsoloud@expressional.social
       2023-12-05T21:03:02Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @randahlI found this interestinghttps://ridl.io/russia-s-mobilisation-against-mobilisation/@anderspuck
       
 (DIR) Post #AcVniVczkaa3midfs0 by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
       2023-12-05T21:35:27Z
       
       0 likes, 1 repeats
       
       @notsoloud @randahl It’s an interesting perspective but I am not entirely convinced that the Russian recruitment system is so incompetent. Russia is losing 20,000 soldiers per month in Ukraine, and one has to wonder where they come from if his numbers are true.
       
 (DIR) Post #AcVpUzgjOFierx4NiC by randahl@mastodon.social
       2023-12-05T21:55:16Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @anderspuck to state the obvious: I really do not like the fact that Putin is mobilizing soldiers from a population 3 times the size of Ukraine’s population.I suppose this all comes down to this: How outnumbered can Ukraine be and still win on the battlefield because of better weapons, strategies, intelligence, and so on?
       
 (DIR) Post #AcVqfL2mwdGtx8spGa by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
       2023-12-05T22:08:39.376788Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @randahlThe final outcome primarily depends on the proportion of losses on both sides. This clearly favours Ukraine in defense (e.g. Vuhledar) because even parity in losses (summer offensive) doesn't result in deciding decrease in Russian man power. But that requires a defensive definition of "win".@anderspuck
       
 (DIR) Post #AcWcFLvhpBBCyFFGka by notsoloud@expressional.social
       2023-12-06T07:01:33Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @anderspuckThanks, good point!Come to think of it, a companion piece on Ukrainian recruitment could make sense. As I hear it, they also have real issues. @randahl
       
 (DIR) Post #AcWkHXBbk9Pm5vEbE8 by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
       2023-12-06T08:31:40Z
       
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       @notsoloud @randahl True, but I think the Ukrainian problems are somewhat misunderstood in the West. The Ukrainian debate is more that significant voices argue that they have been too soft, and that too many young men have not been mobilized yet. It's not that they are about to run out.
       
 (DIR) Post #AcWnQaITqXMSDASLMu by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
       2023-12-06T09:06:51Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @anderspuck @notsoloud @randahl I suppose when we say dysfunctional we assume our standards.russian mobilization is good enough for their purpose.