Post AbffUUFPvWs7xc2ee0 by Ruth_Mottram@fediscience.org
(DIR) More posts by Ruth_Mottram@fediscience.org
(DIR) Post #AbfViVzRFMebsPcOiO by DeeGLloyd@mastodon.world
2023-11-10T15:17:37Z
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Given the excellent video @anderspuck put out yesterday about the stakes for #Europe and the #US to defeat #Russia in #Ukraine, I wonder if he'd be so kind as to comment on this article by Mark Galeotti, who seems to have a slightly different outlook about both #Putin's ambitions & military potential. https://intellinews.com/stolypin-no-peace-talks-for-ukraine-but-at-least-peace-thoughts-300723/
(DIR) Post #AbfViXTbigNeUGk0NU by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-11-10T16:08:38Z
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@DeeGLloyd I disagree with Mark here. If 80 percent of Ukraine joins NATO, then in a Russian perspective that is not a victory but a defeat. There is no way Putin will agree to such a settlement.In general I think Galeotti has fantastic insight into how Russia works domestically, but I regularly disagree with his assessments of international politics. Notably he was wrong about the outbreak of the war, and here I think he is wrong about its potential ending to.
(DIR) Post #AbfVxgbC5LO17iVp4K by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-11-10T16:11:32Z
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@DeeGLloyd Regarding the Russian military capabilities it’s true that they have used up a lot of their spare capacity, but they have also managed to increase their production quite a bit since last year. If the war ends now, I’d expect them to maintain their current production, and in about five years they will have rebuilt most of it.
(DIR) Post #AbfWtZUCgjJdrLqPx2 by DeeGLloyd@mastodon.world
2023-11-10T16:21:57Z
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@anderspuck Thank you, sir!One last question: When is your book going to be available in English?
(DIR) Post #AbfYmpy1DKs6r5hski by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-11-10T16:43:09Z
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@DeeGLloyd It will be a while. So far the publisher is waiting to get some sales numbers from be Danish market before pitching it to international partners, and only if they agree will it be translated. So we will see.
(DIR) Post #AbfZUEip3Gf45EIFAe by DeeGLloyd@mastodon.world
2023-11-10T16:50:59Z
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@anderspuck I guess I'll have to start Danish on DuoLingo 😆
(DIR) Post #AbfbLdkIqODmzn0xLE by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-11-10T17:11:46Z
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@anderspuck @DeeGLloyd FWIIW, my instinct is with you Anders.Did Galeotti think that Putin wouldn’t invade? If so - big mistake!I would say that even if Putin took 100% of Ukraine, he would still need to direct hate at the West - You can’t screw the economy, get 300K killed and tell everyone that everything is now OK. Anything but the USSR is defeat.Ask Chechnya how likely Putin is to be put off after time to lick his wounds.
(DIR) Post #AbffUUFPvWs7xc2ee0 by Ruth_Mottram@fediscience.org
2023-11-10T17:58:05Z
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@anderspuck you have a book? How did I miss that... @DeeGLloyd
(DIR) Post #AbfkoQt4d7Bt6JvASe by drgroftehauge@sigmoid.social
2023-11-10T18:57:46Z
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@anderspuck @DeeGLloyd I thought Russia was mainly after the strategic and recreational value of Crimea and the land and natural resources in southeastern Ukraine? They are after all already exporting coal from the region. If it becomes Russian territory they will displace all residents anyway and move in a bunch of Russians. It doesn't matter that the region is destroyed.