Post Ab8hoooqVQ861qOf20 by fpbhb@mastodon.social
(DIR) More posts by fpbhb@mastodon.social
(DIR) Post #Ab8b9zqI18BQcRDuIy by randahl@mastodon.social
2023-10-25T17:31:44Z
1 likes, 1 repeats
There is no way, Russia can win a war against Ukraine backed by 54 allies. So why don't we end the war then?Watch my recent analysis:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7fsxRI7SHc#ukraine
(DIR) Post #Ab8bA1kKwEbsWYSBIu by randahl@mastodon.social
2023-10-25T19:00:49Z
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Thank you for your comment on my video @anderspuck.For debate, I will answer here on 🐘.You write, one motivation for stalling could be to avoid escalation. And I agree, this is what Scholz *claims*.However, the reason I do not believe Scholz is, Scholz would have to think, Putin would actually drop an a-bomb on Berlin.But as General Marks says:Putin knows, using a nuke would lead to NATO counter attack. So for that reason Putin does not go nuclear.I believe Marks, not Scholz.
(DIR) Post #Ab8ckhUbIvEONQ90AS by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-10-25T19:21:57Z
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@randahl I don't say that I agree with them, but I do think escalation concerns are the motivation. We are talking about nuclear weapons, and probability is measured differently with them. If you think there is 95 percent certainty that a nuclear weapon will not be used, then it is still absolutely reasonable to say that it is too big a risk. I think that's their reasoning. It’s a tough accusation to say that they are using the Ukrainians as expendable pawns.
(DIR) Post #Ab8eFemFY8cet1iyHY by randahl@mastodon.social
2023-10-25T19:38:43Z
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@anderspuck I understand what you are saying. But let us take the ATACMS missiles for example.They have now been delivered, so apparently they are not "too escalatory". But if that is the case, why did Ukraine have to suffer through 600 days of war before they were delivered?I can see how it makes sense to have Ukraine prove their abilities with HIMARS first. But think of the difference ATACMS could have done in May *before* the summer offensive.Instead they arrive for a winter war.
(DIR) Post #Ab8eoDvZMsPVkVZApc by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-10-25T19:45:02Z
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@randahl Yeah, I also said I am not expressing my view. I just think it's their reasoning. By now I also don't think it's about specific weapons systems being a red line, but more what can happen if Russia loses too quickly and Putin can feel desperate.
(DIR) Post #Ab8gTrEAFxuJSkgFKS by mok0@mastodon.online
2023-10-25T20:03:51Z
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@anderspuck @randahl TBH Anders, I don't think it's our job to second guess the Russian reasoning. It's also not our job to try to interpret what goes on in Putin's head. In my view what Russia says and thinks is completely immaterial. We can't change what they are doing or thinking anyway, and they don't care what we do or think. It's extremely strange for me to be such a hawk, but here we are...
(DIR) Post #Ab8hEi2EFfSaYyREXY by randahl@mastodon.social
2023-10-25T20:12:09Z
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@anderspuck I am certain you are right about that. Timing matters and has real consequences for the Russian regime.And I also believe there is a lot of "Rather the dictator we know than a new dictator we do not know" in all of this.But if our side is holding back weapons for the sake of Putin's future, I think the history books will reflect on our priorities with harsh judgement.
(DIR) Post #Ab8hoooqVQ861qOf20 by fpbhb@mastodon.social
2023-10-25T20:18:47Z
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@anderspuck @randahl But Randahl has a point here. Whatever the motives, the outcome is what he claims: the insufficient support is throwing 🇺🇦 under the bus (knowing that the bus will break).
(DIR) Post #Ab8icLczJQNXyNT3PU by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-10-25T20:27:45Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@mok0 @randahl It is actually my job to understand the Russian reasoning, but in this case we are talking about Biden and Scholz. 😉
(DIR) Post #Ab8izSuEQ0dTCpYYjo by mok0@mastodon.online
2023-10-25T20:31:59Z
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@anderspuck @randahl You are working from an Intelligence Gathering perspective, that is different. Of course it is useful to gather intelligence about Russia, and we ought to do exactly what they are doing to us: Carry out a MASSIVE influence operation on the Russian population via internet and every channel we can muster, including paying off politicians and other influential people within the regime with cash or favors.
(DIR) Post #Ab8jVw5VSMkAyjJUHo by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-10-25T20:37:47Z
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@fpbhb @randahl Yes, that is true. I agree with the overall argument in the video.
(DIR) Post #Ab9aTqJnEQuw4lsnb6 by randahl@mastodon.social
2023-10-25T21:46:26Z
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@Jasper I agree with everything you just said.A 17 minute video obviously has its limits to what I can cover, so thank you for bringing more nuance to the discussion.@anderspuck @Sicherheitspod
(DIR) Post #Ab9aTrGHixhn0BFVlg by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-10-26T06:31:13Z
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@randahl @Jasper @Sicherheitspod I also agree, but if anything I think that is actually further from the picture in the video of the Western leaders as cynical military hawks.
(DIR) Post #Ab9iolH5ygiM9G6gPQ by nicolasromascanu@toot.aquilenet.fr
2023-10-26T08:04:31Z
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@anderspuck @fpbhb @randahl What if the West doesn’t want Ukraine to win to avoid the complete collapse of the Russian Federation? We actually have no clue who will take power after Putin’s fall who will manage the Russian nukes. This uncertainty is the reason why the West gives enough weapons to Ukraine to not lose the war but also not to win it.
(DIR) Post #Ab9kdu6h01aEGQBvcW by anderspuck@krigskunst.social
2023-10-26T08:25:14Z
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@nicolasromascanu @fpbhb @randahl Yes, I guess that's a kind of variation of the escalation argument – that it's also about uncertainty.
(DIR) Post #Ab9pxZ1la78gRw565Q by stamberry@mastodon.nl
2023-10-26T09:20:33Z
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@Jasper @randahl @anderspuck @Sicherheitspod Nice explanation. Thanks.I don't know if it's correct, but it makes sense. I have seen that in real life too. People, who don't want to make any decision, so they postpone as long as possible.
(DIR) Post #Ab9pxa3vjYSpew6L68 by stamberry@mastodon.nl
2023-10-26T09:23:45Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
@Jasper @randahl @anderspuck @Sicherheitspod It would be nice if somebody would try to explain Macron behaviour. I really find it difficult to understand. He is going around the world, crying that Europe is not buying european weapons. He has now, best chance ever, to make sure Ukraine will be buying French fighter planes and he does absolutely nothing to use it.