Post AY40HyomkEcMVgOJoO by JanPV@mastodon.social
 (DIR) More posts by JanPV@mastodon.social
 (DIR) Post #AY40Hy05mi4HySfpnU by breadandcircuses@climatejustice.social
       2023-07-25T11:45:03Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       Alan Urban warns about the danger of exponential growth in the speed of global warming...___________________________2023 has been a hell of a year for global warming. We’re just halfway through the year, and yet it’s a virtual certainty that 2023 will be the hottest year in recorded history. And next year is going to be even hotter.In the Western world, a massive heat dome has settled over Mexico and the Southern US, bringing a heatwave that has lasted for weeks with no end in sight. Phoenix made history with 19 consecutive days of 110-degree or more temperatures. And in Florida, sea surface temperatures have reached nearly 100 degrees, making the ocean feel like a hot tub.Up in Canada, firefighters are still battling what is by far the worst wildfire season in Canadian history. Millions of hectares have been blackened, countless lives have been ruined, and wildfire season still has a ways to go.As horrible as all this is, the most disturbing news is what’s happening to the oceans. North Atlantic sea surface temperatures have been at a record high for four months straight. You read that right. The temperatures are *much* higher than the models predicted, and scientists are baffled.So why does it seem like global warming is speeding up? Because it is. Many people don’t realize this, but climate change is getting worse not linearly, but exponentially.Professor Albert Allen Bartlett, a famous mathematician and professor of physics, once said, “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” With that in mind, let’s review the difference between linear growth and exponential growth.Linear growth is when something increases by the same *amount* over each unit of time. Exponential growth is when something increases by the same *percent* over each unit of time.At first, exponential growth doesn’t seem much faster than linear growth. Then at some point, it “goes exponential” and begins to skyrocket, taking everyone by surprise...___________________________There's much more in the article, and I recommend it. But be prepared, because what you will read there is anything but reassuring.FULL ARTICLE -- https://archive.ph/MaqGv#Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency
       
 (DIR) Post #AY40HyomkEcMVgOJoO by JanPV@mastodon.social
       2023-07-25T11:48:04Z
       
       1 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @breadandcircuses I'm a little concerned that plot may be misleading or at least incomplete. 'Near surface temperature'?  I would expect a defined depth for time series measurements. And is it near the surface of the sea, or the land?
       
 (DIR) Post #AY45oWsK9khFApO1tw by ML2@akkoma.sandhill.social
       2023-07-25T21:18:11.058605Z
       
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       @JanPV @breadandcircuses It's pretty clear the author of the graph took data from 1880 --- when emissions were still rather low --- all the way through to post 1970 with high emissions, and simply did an exponential curve fit on that. This can be done in a lot of basic statistical and accounting software, such as Microsoft Excel.The problem is that emissions --- and as a result, temperature rises --- accelerated post-1960, so the author is including a long period with low emissions and low emissions growth rates alongside a period where both are high...which very much affects the result of the curve fitting. Furthermore, the choice of curve used here (exponential) presupposes that curve, rather than something else, being appropriate for the data. In addition to not giving likelihood or error estimates for its own predictions (both of which are ubiquitous in science, and the absence of which should always be seen as a red flag), actually finding appropriate models for data is not trivial, often involving a deep understanding of the phenomenon at hand. This is where climate scientists, and climate modeling, have become important in predicting future temperature increases.In my opinion, the warnings of climate scientists are terrifying and alarming enough, and we should listen to them and heed their advice in response. We should not be wasting attention on projections by people who are not trained in either mathematics or climate science.