Post AX1fRDyj0XZIG16wc4 by jens@toots.nu
(DIR) More posts by jens@toots.nu
(DIR) Post #AX1c7TVbG0sYllNZEu by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-06-24T18:43:37.834790Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
Good overview of the possible meanings of #Prigozhin statement about his forces retreating from Moscow from #Ukraine ctrana.news:> The first: was a clean capitulation of Prigozhin, who, faced with the lack of support for the rebellion inside #Russia and with not very clear military prospects (there were no recorded cases of military units moving to his side, and his own forces were clearly not enough, and, judging by the information received, the mood among the "Wagnerites" themselves was very ambiguous) was forced to make a compromise in exchange for guarantees of his and the "Wagnerites'" security. Putin also benefited from this, as the insurgency was suppressed without the use of force.> The second option: it was a compromise. Putin too had a problem - he had to get a large military force from somewhere to stop the mutinous army. And there were none at hand. So he could also have made what concessions he wanted. And, in that case, Prigozhin (or those behind him) might get something in return besides security guarantees.> The third option is a compromise, but a temporary one. Just a pause in the confrontation. True, in this case it is more advantageous to Putin, since he will have time to gather his strength and strike a blow against Prigozhin and the Wagnerites.> More globally, Prigozhin's mutiny increases the likelihood that Putin will agree to a freezing of the war, if Ukraine and the West agree to it. Because the events of the past two days have shown that the Kremlin has serious problems inside the country that are easier to solve without full-scale hostilities on external fronts.Source: http://ctrana.news/news/preview-437933-mjat...
(DIR) Post #AX1fRDyj0XZIG16wc4 by jens@toots.nu
2023-06-24T19:07:57Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@kravietz From my understanding the best outcome would have been if they made more damage in Russia before being crushed totally. This would weaken Russian forces more and eliminate Wagner group. Prigozhin doesn’t seem like a person that could lead Russia to a stable peace with the world.
(DIR) Post #AX1iBwVdyUjBb3ugLo by alexgranford@mastodonapp.uk
2023-06-24T19:37:50Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@kravietz there will be no guarantees to be respected once wagner returns to their “bases” and gets dismantled - as they surely will be, having no supplies and funding, probably ending up forced to subscribe into army. prigozhin from now on risks his own bandits turning on him for betraying the idea of looting rich oligarchs, will probably flee to africa or asia and his life will be worthless and probably quite short. unless there are more smoke and shadows to come.
(DIR) Post #AX1iZ6fCO7cJkXQabw by alexgranford@mastodonapp.uk
2023-06-24T19:55:25Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@kravietz instead, he probably takes a deal from putin in the amount of few hundred million or even a billion, which he would try to spend and not get killed in the process, fleeing to africa or asia.unless there are more smoke and shadows to come.thankfully, ukraine benefits in any case, the russian regime gets visibly much weaker, morale breaks a new low and some people take a very serious note that what failed once, maybe actually successful in future..