Post AWF66pFNGkAM8APaTI by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
(DIR) More posts by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
(DIR) Post #AWDnfMmyyT9biavdRY by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-05-31T17:57:26.483846Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
The reason why I occasionally quote “Nezygar”, a #Russia Telegram channel closely aligned with Putin’s administration, is that while in general it sticks to the official narratives, quite often it just posts painfully honest analyses that lack all the magical thinking and pompousness of the regular media. It’s almost as if Russian political elites needed a separate, not very prominent “no bullshit” news channel from the Kremlin. This one is very telling, as it pretty well explains one vector of Putin’s desperation to capture Ukraine at any cost.Expert Opinion. Vadim Samodurov, political scientist, publicist and head of the Agency for Strategic Communications, talks about the increasing depopulation of Russia:The problem of Russia’s extinction has recently begun to be called by the more streamlined and neutral term “depopulation”, but this does not at all negate the scale of the ongoing catastrophe. And this is not some “alarmism” or “journalistic fantasy” at all.Even Rosstat data regularly shows and predicts an annual decline in population. However, they try to keep the most critical real figures under wraps. For example, the fact that Russia lost one million people in 2020-2021 during the so-called “pandemic” period is not openly mentioned anywhere. But if you take the reports of the Federal State Statistics Service, it is very easy to calculate the difference with the same figures of the pre-pandemic years. It is the same “excess mortality”. Excess, that is, exceeding on average the number of deaths seen in the last five years before 2020.The special operation in Ukraine, which began almost immediately after the “end” of COVID, makes the situation even worse. According to various estimates, between 400,000 and 1.5 million people have left Russia for other countries. Add to this the irreparable losses in the course of military operations. We do not know the exact figures, let us assume it is tens of thousands of people - on the scale of the population of the country, as cynical as it may sound, the figures are insignificant. But these losses do not only give a “net negative”: every killed, every one who fled from the country includes unborn children. At the same time it must be understood that the situation of stress, general depression and anxiety because of the war itself is not at all conducive to an increase in the birth rate. People do not want to have children, as they have no clear perspectives and are under constant pressure. The situation is only likely to worsen in the coming years.Now he moves to grim forecast of future of the whole country, which sheds light on the possible actual reasons for the war Putin unrolled:All these things together are the prerequisites for a new demographic hole, much deeper than the one into which Russia has already fallen in the early 2000s. If things do not change, Russia’s population could drop to as few as 70 million or even 60 million within the foreseeable future. With such a large population, it would be impossible to defend the existing territories, which means that Russia will not exist within its current borders any longer: we will simply have to cede our territories to stronger nations in need of larger living space. China, Japan, for example. Or the Central Asian republics, whose population already exceeds twice that of Russia.Do you now see the value of annexing a 40 million country for Russia, granted this dramatic forecast? Russia indeed might have been “fighting the war for its survival”, as Putin often says, just not in the sense that everyone implied from his words.The danger of extinction of Russia’s population is absolutely real. But however great the problem may be, it can be overcome if there is political will and deliberate government effort. And, of course, we are not talking about the mass importation of migrants into the country, who are supposed to close the frightening holes in the statistics and replace the indigenous population - it is a “quiet occupation” in essence.Above we see one fundamental feature of Russian political elites: deeply rooted racism and nationalism. Contrary to the happy picture of “multi-national empire”, Russian elites have nothing but contempt for their “smaller brothers” from Central Asian countries, and even from Northern Caucasus, for whom they have a dozen of racist slurs in their vocabulary. This makes the case for annexation of Ukraine even stronger, and explains Putin’s obsession with “brotherhood” between Russians and Ukrainians. For the nationalists, Ukrainians are merely a reproductive material, that is slightly closer than the “immigrants” mentioned above.(continued)
(DIR) Post #AWDnhrpqW4XiaMSbvU by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-05-31T17:58:04.735552Z
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(continuation)In order to make it possible for Russia to enter the future it is necessary that the people have “the will to live”, that the degradation vector is replaced by an upward vector of development, first of all a state policy is needed to preserve human resources and stimulate the birth rate. It is not only the maternity capital, preferential mortgages and payments to families with many children. The stimulation of the birth rate and preservation of the existing population is impossible without the development of healthcare, mass construction of social housing, and regional development. If the government spends about 11-12% of GDP on healthcare in conjunction with strong new measures to support the birth rate, experts believe it will achieve some population growth.It must be obvious to the author, that as long as the war goes on, all spending in Russia will be reallocated for the military. And if there’s ceasefire, all spending will be reallocated for strengthening and rebuilding the army in order to try again in another 10 years.Regional development, bringing people “back to the land”, encouraging low-rise and private housing construction, rural revival; a moratorium on any legislation that encourages the flight of young and middle class people from the country; and real improvement of people’s living standards are measures that would avoid a disaster and level out the situation.These paragraphs are likely here in order to demonstrate that Samodurov is able to present some “constructive criticism” rather than only depressive statistics of nation’s decline. The problem is of course that Putin was already talking about that “bringing people back to the land” 20 years ago, but he failed to deliver. And after these failures, most tangibly exemplified after his 2012 “May decrees” were abandoned, he decided to go to the war.Source: https://t.me/russica2/52082
(DIR) Post #AWDs7POdH26rjIAM9A by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-05-31T18:15:18Z
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@kravietz The demographic time-bomb is broadly recognised within Russia. One twist, if you are a Slav afraid of being in a minority, is that Muslim areas continue to procreate.I can’t say that incorporating Ukraine, which has a similar demographic trajectory, seems a sensible motive for invasion. It would increase the proportion of non-Muslims (if that is important).Without a doubt, the reducing population accounts for the mass abduction of Ukrainian children.
(DIR) Post #AWDsh3NebaTDsEhmRk by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-05-31T18:53:48.863344Z
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@chowderman Ukraine population has been declining due to the same depressive factors as in Russia until 2013, but then everything changed. Now some anecdotal evidence :)It’s the same story as with Poland in 2000’s - two million people left to EU… and then a river of money started flowing back to Poland, after a decade hundreds of thousands returned, now wealthy, with families, invested, started businesses etc. It’s a completely different country as compared to pre-EU in 2000.I was in Ukraine last time in 2020 and it was already a completely different country than when I was driving through it in 2013, the change was visible especially in villages. Russian villages at the same time look exactly the same way they looked in 2013, 2003 etc :)
(DIR) Post #AWDtl5qbTWD6dZjhxY by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-05-31T19:04:18Z
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@kravietz I didn’t realise that Ukraine had “turned the corner” from a reducing population.The polish situation… Yes, Poles seem to work and save hard in Western Europe so that they can buy a home and business in Poland.The same kind of dramatic development happened to Spain and Portugal. The EU is generally good at improving economic and political development and cementing those gains (Where did it go wrong for Hungary?)
(DIR) Post #AWDy3oD1g5Y3FfP6gK by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-05-31T19:14:01Z
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@kravietz On the Russian front, there certainly has been development since Putin came to power. That was through higher oil prices and reforms that predated his Presidency, he has been lucky.That development levelled off after 2014. Corruption continues to weigh heavily and the villages are emptying. And all this is before the clusterfuck of the full scale invasion.
(DIR) Post #AWDyaXS50ABapv3HLE by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-05-31T19:59:51.618687Z
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@chowderman Hungary is similar case as Poland - a society highly divided between the past and the future. Poland’s government is ideologically not much different from Hungary: declaratively anti-EU, anti-immigrant, anti-gay, anti-abortion etc. Fortunately Poland was not so much entangled into business deals with Russia as Hungary, and popular support for Ukraine was huge. The war changed PiS (the ruling party) a lot.
(DIR) Post #AWE15Sb3IrUCfC7ZKq by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-05-31T20:08:07Z
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@kravietz The similarity of the social conservatism I understand, but Poland at least beats Burkina Faso on the perceived corruption index, something that Hungary can’t manage!https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2022/
(DIR) Post #AWE19R03BLeQrxi0S8 by mbpaz@mas.to
2023-05-31T20:08:04Z
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@chowderman @kravietz actual conversation: a middle aged Spanish sailor complains that many of his mates are now being replaced by foreign workers, with lower salaries. An older, retired sailor harshly interrupts him: "Are you too young to remember when we replaced the French and the British in the same jobs?"
(DIR) Post #AWE19qoxBEDux4iVlY by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-05-31T20:10:44Z
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@mbpaz @kravietz I have heard someone of Pakistani extraction complain about the Poles taking all the jobs.Working class resentment of immigration is real.
(DIR) Post #AWE3tgaVl3PeRawfBY by mbpaz@mas.to
2023-05-31T20:58:35Z
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@chowderman @kravietz True, working class resentment of immigration is real. Paradoxically: at the same time, the ships where the above sailors work have serious difficulties filling all positions on board.
(DIR) Post #AWE4jeExjOdEDndwvI by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-05-31T21:08:43.857287Z
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@mbpaz This is a normal process in any mature economy with strong social safety network - on one hand it creates, well, the safety, but on the other hand it reduces the willingness to take job at any salary. Depending on state policies this can converge to either protectionism, where everything in the country becomes very expensive (e.g. Switzerland) or external workforce filling up these jobs, if allowed to. That’s a classic paradox: in the UK everyone will complain about say expensive raspberries, but nobody will go to pick them up at 10 GBP per hour :)@chowderman
(DIR) Post #AWF1YJ9NhJfgvEtTIe by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-06-01T07:48:28Z
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@kravietz @mbpaz @chowderman and nobody should to take up a job at any salary. People need a living wage. If the economic model is based on almost free labor, it is not sustainable.Also, after the basic needs are covered, people tend to care more about relative than absolute wealth.Concerning Switzerland: they have quite a high level of immigration. And living cost are high. As is standard of living.
(DIR) Post #AWF1s0mxfvpRlZnp0i by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-06-01T08:11:22.028227Z
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@t_mkdfWhat surprised me in Switzerland was the practice of smuggling raw meat (!) from Germany, with Swiss customs actually checking people's cars for contraband. It was a bit funny, as last time I saw people smuggling raw meat it was on the border with Belarus :) The price difference must be massive if it's economical to engage in smuggling.@mbpaz @chowderman
(DIR) Post #AWF1trcIkOdHtohQrQ by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-06-01T07:39:47Z
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@kravietz @chowderman Hungary: nationalism.You see similar trajectories in the states that made up Yugoslavia. Slovenia was always quite industrious and prospering. Croatia caught up. But Serbia is seriously lagging behind everyone.
(DIR) Post #AWF23QnTJkuzcBUE6K by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-06-01T07:32:05Z
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@kravietz the "replacement" part of his argumentation made me cringe a little.It is a bit like that neither side in russia believes in the literal attractiveness of their "empire".
(DIR) Post #AWF653mYFzLQdD5Wue by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-06-01T08:19:52Z
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@t_mkdf @kravietz The attraction of the Russian Empire is natural resources. The more land you have, the more resources that you have and the less competition on world markets.The elite can control those resources and import labour. Importing troops for defence is a little more difficult.
(DIR) Post #AWF66oS6DwkbfLMEfQ by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-06-01T08:16:56Z
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@kravietz @mbpaz @chowderman it is going on forever. When we go there we quite often have to bring meat with us in a cooler. (We have good friends that migrated there. And we almost went there ourselves since my wife is a MD and spent a year training at Zurich Hospital).
(DIR) Post #AWF66pFNGkAM8APaTI by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-06-01T08:22:34Z
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@kravietz @mbpaz @chowderman and Germans are tight with their money regarding food prices.So not only is there a disparity in view of national economics that lead to lower prices. But also that German supermarkets really have to operate competitively and drive prices down.Switzerland: wealthy people there frown upon buying at Lidl or Aldi.Germany: everyone buys at Lidl or Aldi.
(DIR) Post #AWF680tHSoSkX4dzJA by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-06-01T08:24:55Z
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@t_mkdf @kravietz @mbpaz What? Switzerland doesn’t have meat (or is it like Japan, prohibitory expensive) ?This is the way of the future, no/little meat consumption.
(DIR) Post #AWF681T5Jh6QK7Oa7E by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-06-01T08:26:34Z
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@chowderman @kravietz @mbpaz this is a thing going on for at least for 30+ years.Switzerland is really protecting it's farmers from EU competition.
(DIR) Post #AWF6pZHlSaL9esrfKC by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-06-01T09:06:54.324340Z
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@chowderman Switzerland doesn’t have meat As @t_mkdf explained it’s protectionism. And protectionism is connected vessels: farmer’s high income is paid by high consumer price. EU keeps farming profitable using Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) while keeping consumer prices low.This is the way of the future, no/little meat consumption.Or to get people on the streets: the largest popular protests that rocked communist Poland in 1980’s were specifically in response to high food prices. Meat was one of the foods most sought for because it was always in shortage, so there was a whole black market. As I saw in Belarus in 2000’s and as we see in Switzerland, people don’t stop eating meat in response to high prices, they just seek a way around it.@mbpaz
(DIR) Post #AWF7GR0gKuaFoLgXzs by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-06-01T09:11:47.287123Z
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@t_mkdf There’s some Lidl stores in the UK and I used to buy food there when I moved here as they sell food in similar quality to Polish and cheaper than the UK groceries.@mbpaz @chowderman
(DIR) Post #AWF7OM8oK3pV1kGTKq by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-06-01T09:12:40Z
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@kravietz @mbpaz @chowderman fun fact: Switzerland has a long tradition of dog butchery.This is of course not a response to the 50+ years of protectionism... But to former poverty in the Alps.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dog_meat?wprov=sfla1
(DIR) Post #AWF8EW1snrsGkltbWq by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-06-01T09:16:18Z
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@kravietz @mbpaz @t_mkdf Lidl and Aldi. Not the cheapest for everything, and a restricted number of lines, but they have a place in the market.And of course, there are tons of Polish/Eastern European shops now, with the best sausages!
(DIR) Post #AWF8FiVtsBr3lIVcae by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-06-01T09:20:26Z
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@t_mkdf @kravietz @mbpaz You learn a new thing everyday. I now see Switzerland in a new light, chocolate and dog meat!
(DIR) Post #AWF8Jw2tVEKQtCx9km by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-06-01T09:23:46.312398Z
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@chowderman Oh yes, now I mostly go to “Malinka” which is in the industrial area behind Oxford Road in Reading. It’s practically a Polish wholesale store, good prices and quite broad choice.@mbpaz @t_mkdf
(DIR) Post #AWFDHrqGf0MR2lsehs by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-06-01T09:27:21Z
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@chowderman @kravietz @mbpaz swiss supermarkets also quite often sell excellent horse meat. 👌
(DIR) Post #AWFDHshRTItZhgl7aa by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-06-01T09:59:48Z
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@t_mkdf @kravietz @mbpaz Famously the horse meat in the UK came from Europe, in beefburgers made by an Irish company with a processing plant in Holland using any cheap rotten meat it could find.I prefer mine as fit for human consumption, which I can get from France.
(DIR) Post #AWFDJv4rbOUteogbaa by chowderman@universeodon.com
2023-06-01T09:52:49Z
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@kravietz @mbpaz @t_mkdf I think that Malinka was one of the first in the area.It wasn’t until recently that I realised that they also have Biedronka in Poland!
(DIR) Post #AWFDOpuSFAOf4rA6D2 by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-06-01T10:20:40.212943Z
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@chowdermanHaha my kids are in despair that "Biedronka" hasn't expanded to UK yet as "Biedronka has the best frozen pizza" in their opinion :)@mbpaz @t_mkdf
(DIR) Post #AWFIMNPvhpqrtxWxvs by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-06-01T11:01:15Z
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@kravietz @mbpaz @chowderman frozen pizza?You should rethink your parenting...
(DIR) Post #AWFIMO7t4P0u6I64Rs by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-06-01T11:16:12.946573Z
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@t_mkdf They’re too old to listen to my food advice I’m afraid 🤷♂️@mbpaz @chowderman
(DIR) Post #AWFKz1UtKzYb7VPJg0 by kwj@hub.hubzilla.de
2023-06-01T11:44:47Z
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@kravietz 🦇 at the same time too young, later they'll probablyappreciate your advice on this matter
(DIR) Post #AWFL1lONfjMO2XfW88 by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-06-01T11:46:10.298266Z
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@kwj The fun part is that they happily reach out and accept advice on IT, jobs etc… but as it comes to food, it’s game over 🤦♂️
(DIR) Post #AWFTlHvCNIh7anEnWS by mbpaz@mas.to
2023-06-01T12:45:15Z
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@t_mkdf @chowderman @kravietz AFAICT, frowning upon horse meat is a purely cultural issue - and a very local one. There are many places in Europe where eating horse meat was perfectly normal (still is, but it has become expensive).
(DIR) Post #AWFTlJ1cGvQF0zFRAG by t_mkdf@ruhr.social
2023-06-01T12:48:59Z
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@mbpaz @chowderman @kravietz it's not that expensive around here (Ruhr). You can get it in most supermarkets and some traditional restaurants. Though it's more and more seen as old-people-food.
(DIR) Post #AWFqrCuSDi1kjOgHTc by kravietz@agora.echelon.pl
2023-06-01T17:42:35.357604Z
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@t_mkdfI kept horses for trail riding before I moved to UK so don't eat horse meat for, let's say, sympathetic reasons, but I've tried it. I think in Kalmykia, where it's quite popular source of protein. They also make kumys, an alcoholic drink out of mare milk, which I chased there unsuccessfully, but I totally missed the season 😒 At the same time I once got a whole crate of liqueur made of mare milk in Netherlands, and that was truly delicious (and quite strong, well over 30%) drink!@mbpaz @chowderman