Post AU3bpFS2RuO2FnwzoG by PiedraFiera@qoto.org
(DIR) More posts by PiedraFiera@qoto.org
(DIR) Post #AU3NnTzq07XNQZ1Xge by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-27T21:36:30Z
2 likes, 5 repeats
I just want to say two important things..First the recent school shooting is a tragedy and we should all be sad about the death of any children, especially as a victim of muder.Second, we have to realize, for the sake ofperspective, how unfathomably rare it is for a child to die in a school shooting in america. It seems common because america is huge and the news makes this stuff public. But the numbers are more telling.To put some numbers to it the chance of a child dyingin a school shooting in a public shool on any given day is 1 in 614 million. For comparison the chance of a person getting struck by lightening on any given day is **less** than 1 in 370 million.In other words a child is more than **twice** as likely in the USA to get struck by lightening as they are to die in a school shooting.Should we still mourne and be outraged by it... sure.. does that mean it is a problem that is common enough to be a huge concern... not really. We should probably put more effort into addressing the "lightening problem" than we should be about addressing school shootings.#gun #guns #GunReform #2A
(DIR) Post #AU3PJ7spqrlA4AOvqa by trinsec@qoto.org
2023-03-27T21:53:30Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo There's a difference though.For one, lightning 'just happens'. Best you can do is to educate people not to stand below trees during lightning storms and other good advice.For two, shootings can and should be preventable. There are many ways possible towards that goal, and not much action's been taken so far if I have to believe the media. Just endless debates.Just because it happens less than lightning strikes, you shouldn't do much effort against it? While it could possibly be prevented to begin with?
(DIR) Post #AU3PomOZHOvegkKyhc by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-27T21:59:10Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@trinsec For one, lightning ‘just happens’. Best you can do is to educate people not to stand below trees during lightning storms and other good advice.Not true, lightening is absolutely preventable. First, you will “feel” lightening about to strike minutes before hand, if people are taught this they can run to shelter or take other relevant steps, like lying down. They can also avoid tall objects.,We can also take preventative measures in the form of lightening rods and even invest money in improving lightening rod technology.If I had to guess it is probably cheaper and easier to prvent people getting struck by lightening than it would be to prevent school shootings. For two, shootings can and should be preventable. There are many ways possible towards that goal, and not much action’s been taken so far if I have to believe the media. Just endless debates.Well both are preventable (and i listed some ways above).. both being preventable we should invest in the infrastructure that is most common first. Just because it happens less than lightning strikes, you shouldn’t do much effort against it? While it could possibly be prevented to begin with?No one said you shouldnt do anything about it. The point is we should put much less priority on addressing it than we do other more common forms of injury.Also there is a point where an event is so rare that its statistical noise. You can never eliminate something to 0, but you can reduce it. At a certain point it is redued enough that its not a concern. There is probably one person every hundred years that dies in a bird attack, do we bother trying to prevent bird attacks or do we just accept it is rare enough that it isnt really common enough to be a priority.
(DIR) Post #AU3QAYWNXlK61uNHIu by strawd@qoto.org
2023-03-27T22:03:09Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo what about the chance of a child being traumatized by a school shooting? Surely that's far higher.
(DIR) Post #AU3Qd83F2MuKKgN1u4 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-27T22:08:16Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@strawd Yup, it sure would be. But the chance of even just being at a school during a school shooting is a very rare occurance.. more common sure, but still safe to assert the fact that it is an extremely rare event no matter how you slice it for any child to be directly negativly effected by a school shooting.
(DIR) Post #AU3Qh9FwV21DEBEBlo by SpaceLifeForm@infosec.exchange
2023-03-27T22:09:01Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo No. A child in a school is not likely to be killed by lightning because they are indoors.Most fatal lightning strikes occur outdoors near trees.
(DIR) Post #AU3Qlu6wEj6FhgHfBw by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-27T22:09:51Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@SpaceLifeForm That was **not** what I said... I said the chance of a child being struck by lightening in a day... I did not say the lightening strike would happen while they were indoors... could happen on the way to school, on the way home, during recess, or any other time of the day.
(DIR) Post #AU3QmYRCIp4Ym64PK4 by peterdrake@qoto.org
2023-03-27T22:10:00Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @trinsec A child is very unlikely to die specifically in a *school shooting*, but firearms (yes, including suicide) are the leading cause of death among US children and adolescents.https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2201761
(DIR) Post #AU3RBnGKK1Gxza1K9g by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-27T22:14:32Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@peterdrake Absolutely.. which is also a much more involv4ed topic.For starters I have absolutely no desire to prevent means of suicide. While I do wish to prevent the desire to commit suicide with better mental health and better home environments I am of the opinion that a person has a right to bodily autonomy and that includes suicide. As tragic as it is every person has a right to commit suicide and while we do want to prevent the numbers through mental health what we dont want to do is take away the means of suicide, because in the end that is everyones sacred right IMO (And yes i know many will disagree).Now when we talk about murder thats even more questionable because any serious and object statistical analysis (which would have to use granger causality or a similar causality test) very clearly shows that banning or restricting access to guns almost always results in an increase in overall murder and violent crimes. So while murder in all forms, including with guns, should be prevented, if we actually try to ban or restrict guns you are doing the exact opposite of your intent.@trinsec
(DIR) Post #AU3RNKxHORTHfqcDs8 by SpaceLifeForm@infosec.exchange
2023-03-27T22:16:38Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo Noted.It is still an apple and oranges comparison.These MCIs are preventable, but we really have no control over thunderstorms at all.We can make the odds better.
(DIR) Post #AU3RVAg3UQSy7AIKUy by trinsec@qoto.org
2023-03-27T22:18:04Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo I’m about to go to bed but I really wanted to address this little one: Not true, lightening is absolutely preventable. First, you will “feel” lightening about to strike minutes before hand, if people are taught this they can run to shelter or take other relevant steps, like lying down. They can also avoid tall objects.,I think you are mistaken. It is not minutes, it often is mere seconds. In many cases you won’t have that much time to react. You will feel a sensation, possibly, yes. You’ll know that you might get struck, yes. You just won’t have much time to react to it.And for the love of whatever gods, do NOT lie down. Keep your touching surface area to the floor as small as possible. If you have to low, go squat.
(DIR) Post #AU3RkIdKBxcp8KEOTA by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-27T22:20:47Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@SpaceLifeForm >It is still an apple and oranges comparison. It is absolutely an apples and orange comparison. As I pointed out this is about showing how astronomically rare this events are.. it is also about showing that with lightening striking kids being twice as likely that we should prioritize preventing that over preventing school shootings.. yet thats not what we do, you hear about school shootings every day and the outrage yet no one is outraged we arent doing anything about all the kids gettign struck by lightening.> These MCIs are preventable, but we really have no control over thunderstorms at all.>> We can make the odds better.Thunderstorms arent preventable but lightening strikes absolutely are. In fact its much cheaper, easier, and straightforward to prevent lightening strikes than it is to prevent school shootings.1) you can feel a lightening strike coming minutes before hand. You can respond to this by taking certain actions (running away, lying down, seeking shelter). Better education on this would help prevent2) More, taller, or better grounding lightening rods are well proven to prevent lightening strikes. Investing in lightening rod infrastructure would go a long way to reduce these numbers significantly and is far easier and straight forward than any solutions we could come up with to prevent school shootings. Not to mention cheaper.
(DIR) Post #AU3SCVdpQCFlaMuzZo by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-27T22:25:52Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@trinsec I actually dont know how long the warning is that you “feel” it on average.. I was in a lightening strike once (not actually hit but a few feet away) and I felt it about a minute before hand, maybe a bit more.
(DIR) Post #AU3Sfu9NNS5Zzpguhs by EvilK@qoto.org
2023-03-27T22:31:13Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
@freemo @trinsec I was was within 20' and felt and saw it about 15 seconds before.
(DIR) Post #AU3ShuRlFITRUlFLZw by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-27T22:31:32Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@EvilK Interesting, good to note.@trinsec
(DIR) Post #AU3UikH4keto8zm6VM by strawd@qoto.org
2023-03-27T22:54:08Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo if this number from WaPo can be believed, then there have been 348,000 students who have experienced gun violence at school since 1999. Divide by the number of US school-aged people since then (I got 147 million from quick addition of census data), and you get about 1 in 400.https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/interactive/school-shootings-database/
(DIR) Post #AU3VWJ740loUNpj02S by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-27T23:03:04Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@strawd No your numbers are wrong.. we are tlking per day... so 348K students expiernced gun violence over the course of ~24 years... 348000/24/365 = 39 per dayHow many school kids are there at any point in time on average? 55 million kids int he USA between 5 and 18 years old (all public grade schools)So thats 39 per 55 million. or a 1 in 1.4 million chance of a child being exposed to gun violence in their school on any given day.This all assumes the original stats are true which i didnt fact check.
(DIR) Post #AU3Vldo9LmkeuZBp5c by kristofor@qoto.org
2023-03-27T23:05:52Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo This is the very silliest of whataboutism, and judging by the replies, it seems to have served its purpose. It easily gets people off of discussing the very real problem of US gun violence (which is utterly different than nearly every other country in the world), and instead discussing whether or not people struck by lightning knew it was happening before it did.Bravo. That's whataboutism at its best.
(DIR) Post #AU3We5w0zX0Fmapm3U by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-27T23:15:41Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@kristofor Dont be an idiot, that was not the intent. People want to talk about it, great. But instead of being an ass and resorting to personal attacks because you dont like the way the converssation went be mature about it and jump in and steer the conversation to the points you feel are important.. you have the mike, talk tell us whats important, I know ill be happy to respond as well others, at least, as long as you stop with bad-faith nonsense.
(DIR) Post #AU3Xh7OQ7tsH807sTQ by strawd@qoto.org
2023-03-27T23:27:28Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo fair enough, the 1/400 number isn't directly comparable to the daily risk numbers you used for the original stats.On the other hand, when considering lightning strikes, the risk assessment question one might ask is "is it worth the risk to go outside today?", whereas the question one might ask (and I have asked myself many times) w.r.t. gun violence in schools is "is it worth the risk to raise my kids in the US?". In my opinion it's worth the risk to go outside regularly despite the 1/15,300 (https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-odds) chance of being struck by lightning in a lifetime, but it's seriously debatable whether or not it's worth a 1/400 chance per kid (ack: not entirely independent variables) to have them exposed to school gun violence.
(DIR) Post #AU3YYhorQMtlS02ttY by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-27T23:37:07Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@strawd Yea, but I also think the current framing, in that regard, is short sighted.The numbers generall show that when you reduce access to guns that overall violent acts increase significantly and usually never recover or improve, at least not in the vast majority of countries that went through this. In particular sexual assault tends to spike rather aggressively as a consequence of gun bans.We would have to run the numbers to get real numbers but if we did you might find the argument is more like "Would I be willing to trade a 1L400 chance of my child being somewhere in the general area where gun violence takes place and a 1:6 chance of being raped... or would i rather be in an environment where guns are banned so the chance of my child being exposed to it is say, 1:1000, but now your chance of being raped is 1:2.Obviously these are just made up numbers, we should run real ones.. but the point is there is a trade off. Ban guns and yea you might reduce the number of gun related traumas, but now you have just increased the number of rape related traumas but a much much larger number.
(DIR) Post #AU3ZJWaizHVEEol6Om by strawd@qoto.org
2023-03-27T23:45:37Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo yeah my risk assessment compares where the US is to where other countries are, not to where the US could be with changes in laws. It may be that there is no good way to come back from where we are in the US, but I hope not. I don't know what specific actions can reduce gun violence, and I'm not advocating for trying to ban all guns.
(DIR) Post #AU3ZapsuVabizwWHDM by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-27T23:48:41Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@strawd And that comparison is how any person int he real world would do it...but now we moved completely away from discussion on gun laws at all then... Whatever the homicide, gun death, or rape rates may be, overall they are not dictated by gun laws alone... there are countless factors that result in those numbers...There are many countries that have far higher homicide rates thaan america who have no guns, and many places with guns and lower rates.. because the risks are not determined by gun ownership alone or even necceseraly the most significant determining factor... so you are evaluate everything about a country.... so you arent even taking about guns anymore at all other than as a side note at that point.
(DIR) Post #AU3am0GqKkxmLibRGy by PiedraFiera@qoto.org
2023-03-28T00:01:55Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo Counting only children that got killed does not consider the total impact. All children and adults in the school are impacted, but also those not inside or in the vicinity. They might just happen to identify for other reasons, like also being children or teachers and be affected.Second, it is not rare when compared to many other countries.Third, I think there are many other social problems that if addressed would positively affect people's lives and would also impact the school shootingś frequency.
(DIR) Post #AU3amWozJLI1Isp9w8 by strawd@qoto.org
2023-03-28T00:02:04Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo your original post here asked whether or not it was a common enough occurrence to be a huge concern, and I think the answer is yes
(DIR) Post #AU3aqlmFeCN2qYZBgW by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-28T00:02:47Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@PiedraFiera Absolutely true, I was not trying to calculate the total global impact on everyone from these events.
(DIR) Post #AU3bD0OVyvlGYH4Cdk by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-28T00:06:48Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@strawd Sure, you are welcome to that opinion. and I think something that happens 1 in 600+ million is more than rare enough to not be a concern... I also think that while many more might be "exposed " to it hby it happening somewhere in the general facinity is not nearly as traumatizing and thus also a somewhat acceptable outcome.. I mean, they probably included shooting that were "around the block" and their total interaction with it was to hear a pop and hide or maybe not even that, all they hear is the talk at the school about it the next day.I know when i was in school i was exposed to a shooting.. never even knew it happened right next to me but the cops were there and IU drove past it.. I know someone was killed but since you never see or hear the event or anything it really had no traumatic effect to me at all.. So while I dont like to see those sorts of things happening I dont think its quite as traumatic as the numbers might suggest (as I said id have dif deeper into yoiur source to know the definition)
(DIR) Post #AU3bpFS2RuO2FnwzoG by PiedraFiera@qoto.org
2023-03-28T00:13:45Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo Sure I get it, just mentioning that the impact is large and very significant. Surviving such events as a child, or just having them happen within your development, may have profound consequences, like life long propensity to PTSD, depression, anxiety, suicide.. I think it does warrant huge concern.I also believe addressing it, should go beyond access to guns, because the US has deep issues that should also warrant huge concern. Like all the wars they get involved in, directly or by proxy.
(DIR) Post #AU3cMKO37Srd7MrGqG by pj@qoto.org
2023-03-28T00:19:44Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo I'm a little bit confused here.Are you saying that school (or other mass) shootings are as "natural" as lightning?
(DIR) Post #AU3cXZDALJIsHS7v96 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-28T00:21:44Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@PiedraFiera Yea , though id imagine the number of kids who have ptsd because they were in a school shooting is likely in the one in hundred million range. So still pretty rare.
(DIR) Post #AU3cccHEN9XBEhR5RA by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-28T00:22:38Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj i am not. I am saying it is half as common as lightening to get killed in a school shooting.
(DIR) Post #AU3dcbNTocyaOwuqDg by PiedraFiera@qoto.org
2023-03-28T00:33:53Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo USA Adults that were taught as children what to do in case of a nuclear attack, describe the negative life long impact it had on them, growing up believing they might have to face that. Entire generations were impacted. Sure some individuals suffered more than others but the consequences were generalized.Children that nowadays have to participate in school shooter drills are also impacted. Entire generations are being impacted.Not to mention, indirect consequences, like teachers quitting or money being diverted for that instead of other stuff.I fear for the rest of the world, because these generations of US children will manifest their trauma not only within the US, this will affect foreign policy and geopolitics.
(DIR) Post #AU3dzxuAE5UqvdLOCG by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-28T00:38:02Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@PiedraFiera Even if we reduced gun shootings to one every 10 years we woukd still be teaching kids these lessons becauae preparing them saves lives, even jf jts rare we want to save lives....Are we really going to claim now that measures which safe childrends lives in shootings are part of the problem?Teaching kids how tonsurvive a tornado is fairly similar and dangerous.. yea its stressful but kids are more than strong enough to do drills, and thry are and always shoukd be good practice.
(DIR) Post #AU3eq7p0bIxWk9nw9Y by PiedraFiera@qoto.org
2023-03-28T00:47:31Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo If children's well being was really a priority, there would be free school lunches, free healthcare for everybody, free housing, inexpensive quality food and education, salaries that actually allowed people to own their house and have control of their lives, one month vacations per year, no involving yourselves in wars which should not concern you...Politicians and intellectuals love invoking the wellbeing of the children to advance their interests, but do not push agendas that actually promote children's well being. Maybe they fear destroying the perfect cause they invoke to promote their interests.
(DIR) Post #AU3rLAQMAqUXF2qGem by pj@qoto.org
2023-03-28T03:07:36Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo I do not agree with this statement: “We should probably put more effort into addressing the “lightening problem” than we should be about addressing school shootings.”The question is: “What can we do about it as a society?”You can see the storm coming and you can choose not to go outside or you may try to find shelter and protect yourself in some other way, but a child who has to be in school supposedly safe under adult supervision doesn’t have such a privilege.How can we consider ourselves a civilized society if we don’t have the means to keep deadly weapons out of the hands of individuals that should not have them?You need a license to drive a car and you can’t buy cigarettes and alcohol under a certain age but you can carry a gun or even an army-style assault rifle no questions asked.
(DIR) Post #AU4JjxmJ7rMLydimpM by kaloot18@mastodon.social
2023-03-28T08:25:49Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo And now compare it to the chance of children dying in a school shooting in any other part of the developed world..
(DIR) Post #AU4K6YmQEatv6hYA0u by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-28T08:29:52Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@kaloot18 why woukd i do that thats not how valid analysis works, there woukd be know way to know what qualities of other coubtries are to blame... coukd just as well be the socialized healthcare providing mental health treatme t making the difference.
(DIR) Post #AU4UK68sVMl3st9Do8 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-28T10:24:22Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@kaloot18 why woukd i do that thats not how valid analysis works, there woukd be no way to know what qualities of other countries are to blame... could just as well be the socialized healthcare providing mental health treatme t making the difference.
(DIR) Post #AU4xdt93R2382L1FgG by peterdrake@qoto.org
2023-03-28T15:52:55Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @trinsec At the risk of diving into statistical weeds deeper than my understanding, there is a strong positive correlation between gun ownership and homicide rates:https://phys.org/news/2022-05-gun-ownership-homicide-stronger.htmlhttps://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/firearms-research/guns-and-death/Returning to your original post, there were 745 US deaths in mass shootings in 2021. Only 11 Americans were killed by lightning that year. (By odd coincidence, that was a record high year for gun deaths and a record low year for lightning deaths. There were a total of 444 lightning deaths from 2006 through 2021, an average of 27.75 per year.)To say that lightning is more dangerous than mass shootings is wildly inaccurate. Comparing all PEOPLE killed by lightning to CHILDREN killed specifically in mass shootings AT PUBLIC SCHOOLS is cherry-picking.It's a pretty safe bet that there will be multiple mass shootings in the US next week and there will not be multiple Americans killed by lightning.
(DIR) Post #AU507jejTmhZCdCEGO by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-28T16:19:57Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@peterdrake @trinsec At the risk of diving into statistical weeds deeper than my understanding, there is a strong positive correlation between gun ownership and homicide rates:I have spoken out on this as a professional data scientists many times. This sort of analysis is overwhelmingly dishonest for anyone with any training in data science who makes any attempt at being objective, and there is a reason for this.That same correlation you show, guess what, youd see the same thing if you compared mental health access, or poverty levels, or any number of factors that lead to people being more or less healthy well rounded people. This is exactly why it is extreme intellectual dishonesty, you have no clue what of the countless factors are causing this, and as we all know correlation doesnt even hint at causality, it si corelation.Now we do have something that is strongly suggestive of causality, they are called causality tests in statistics, and while they arent perfect anyone trying to be intellectually honest would use this method for decided how to analyze the situation. The simplest of these is called granger causality. When you do this form of analysis you more or less rule out other confounding factors by looking at the change in one value as another value changes. For example we look at.. does homicide rates go up when guns are banned, and vice versa.. you look for one event following another.And guess what, when we provide these intellecually honest methods tot he data we see a very clear trend where banning guns tend to make violent acts and rapes skyrocket, and reversing bans on guns tend to cause those rates to drop (see some examples attached) Returning to your original post, there were 745 US deaths in mass shootings in 2021. Only 11 Americans were killed by lightning that year. (By odd coincidence, that was a record high year for gun deaths and a record low year for lightning deaths. There were a total of 444 lightning deaths from 2006 through 2021, an average of 27.75 per year.)Why did you just run odds on something different than what I stated? No one was talking about mass shootings or lightening deaths, nor do those numbers have relevance to the point being made, which was that using school shootings as a political point to create action is pointless since they are exceedingly rare… I never argued mass killings (by gun or any other means) was something we shouldnt address To say that lightning is more dangerous than mass shootings is wildly inaccurate. Comparing all PEOPLE killed by lightning to CHILDREN killed specifically in mass shootings AT PUBLIC SCHOOLS is cherry-picking.At no point did I, or anyone, make this claim. I never said lighting was more dangerous, I said it was more common to be struck by lightening, again, to make the point about how rare school shootings are, not to depict the danger of lightening.
(DIR) Post #AU54O74gZphuHgOtrE by peterdrake@qoto.org
2023-03-28T17:08:30Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @trinsecFirst, on the question of correlation vs causality, my understanding is that there are four possible explanations for a strong correlation between A and B:1) It’s a coincidence. Significance tests and replication can rule this out.2) A causes B.3) B causes A.4) A and B are both caused by a third factor.Does this match your understanding? If so, which one do you think is at play here (where A is high gun ownership rate and B is high homicide rate)?Your one example does show a spike a few years later, but it disappears immediately. What we ideally need is a control country that is like Ireland in every other way but didn’t confiscate guns in 1972. Without this policy, aside from the one-year spike, would homicide rates increase, stay steady, or decrease?Now, on to questions of misattribution.Your specific original claim was:–In other words a child is more than twice as likely in the USA to get struck by lightening as they are to die in a school shooting.Should we still mourne and be outraged by it… sure.. does that mean it is a problem that is common enough to be a huge concern… not really. We should probably put more effort into addressing the “lightening problem” than we should be about addressing school shootings.(BTW, is there an easy way to quote text with >?)I read two things into this. Let me know if I’ve misinterpreted you.1) The media overemphasizes school shootings specifically. Your child is extremely unlikely to die this way.(I’ll grant you this one; see also plane crashes and shark attacks.)2) Because of these splashy mass shootings, the media makes too big a deal out of gun deaths. It would make more sense to worry about lightning, which is more likely to kill you.It is to this second implication that I am reacting. That is why I brought out the general mass shooting numbers.(I assume being hit by lightning is almost always fatal, so I didn’t distinguish between being hit or killed.)If you “never argued mass killings (by gun or any other means) was something we shouldnt address”, I apologize for misreading that.How do you suggest we address that problem?
(DIR) Post #AU567COPkbGXlPgtpg by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-28T17:27:48Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
@peterdrake 1) It’s a coincidence. Significance tests and replication can rule this out.2) A causes B.3) B causes A.4) A and B are both caused by a third factor.So.. this is sorta valid but a gross oversimplification. As a professional who tries to do this stuff quite often it might help if i explain how we map these things…So A causing B is what we call a “conditional probability”. In reality there isnt just “some third factor” but a huge map of conditional probabilities with A effecting B effecting C and D effects B as well, etc etc. So we have a MAP of probability. We call this a “graphical model”. The job of a data scientist is to discover that graphical model, define the probabilities between the individual links, and from that model the events.When your graphical model is incomplete and you have influencing factrs you havent mapped we call that “confounding”, sorta. Your one example does show a spike a few years later, but it disappears immediately. What we ideally need is a control country that is like Ireland in every other way but didn’t confiscate guns in 1972. Without this policy, aside from the one-year spike, would homicide rates increase, stay steady, or decrease?You are correct of course that I am giving somewhat shallow arguments here, largely because if i get too technical it will probably be too complex for the scope here When I discuss this issue with fellow data scientists our models are far more involved. I am trying more to show the simple to understand elements that are part of a much bigger and more rigorous line of research one would need to do. (BTW, is there an easy way to quote text with >?)You just have to do it manually as far as i know :( 1) The media overemphasizes school shootings specifically. Your child is extremely unlikely to die this way.Yes this was one of my main points 2) Because of these splashy mass shootings, the media makes too big a deal out of gun deaths. It would make more sense to worry about lightning, which is more likely to kill you.That was more for dramatic effect than a literal point, no.. My point is more that both of these things are such exceedingly rare events they arent really worth being our focus.. Problems with overall violence, and if guns have a role worth considering in that, is the bigger issue. (I assume being hit by lightning is almost always fatal, so I didn’t distinguish between being hit or killed.)90% of people struck by lightening survive actually. If you “never argued mass killings (by gun or any other means) was something we shouldnt address”, I apologize for misreading that.Mass killings, and really any killings, are a huge problem that needs addressing… Guns just arent really the problem anymore than spoons are the problem when it comes to physical health in the USA… our problem is lack of access to mental health, and generally poor environment.Ironically this problem is usually very much exemplified in most internet threads on gun violence where people are so hateful and toxic to eachother it gets vile, demonstrating the very mental-health issue driving the violence, far more than the guns. How do you suggest we address that problem?1) is the hardest solution, its social.. we have to teach people to be caring to other people, something that as i point out, is usually at its most vile when we discuss these topics.2) prioritize access to mental health.. im not talking asbout fixing healthcare, thats just aprt of it, but also normalizing mental health and psychiatry and many other aspects.@trinsec
(DIR) Post #AU5OlKbGSCXvyazIXY by sturgman@qoto.org
2023-03-28T20:56:48Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @peterdrake @trinsec you have told me in the past that you would provide some of these causality tests that you claim to have (there are many you claim). Would still love to see those so I can make my own mind on your claims. Not the four pictures you have shown me before, hard to gauge anything from those.
(DIR) Post #AU5Osw8tGqIuRHLIqO by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-28T20:58:08Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@sturgmanSorry i forgot, im sitting in the airport right now on my phone. Remind me in a few days once and im in thailand and ill walk you through it. @peterdrake @trinsec
(DIR) Post #AU5Pk7KwNfxkVPKyrg by sturgman@qoto.org
2023-03-28T21:06:19Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@peterdrake @freemo @trinsec according to this: https://www.weather.gov/media/safety/Analysis06-19.pdfThere have been about ~70 deaths by lighting of people ages 0-19I'm not sure of the exact number of deaths of the same age range in the same period due to school related mass shootings but it is probably close.High enough occurrences that we typically don't send kids outdoors in thunderstorms or let them stay in a pool during one.
(DIR) Post #AU5Pk81poCH2eRPEiu by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-28T21:07:44Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@sturgmanIve personally never known someone to stey indoors or keep their kids indoors because kf lightening, maybe its just me. @peterdrake @trinsec
(DIR) Post #AU5QatDza0ZO5NFdIm by sturgman@qoto.org
2023-03-28T21:17:20Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @peterdrake @trinsec Ha! Ok. public pools do close during thunderstorms, no?
(DIR) Post #AU5QqoHfiUyHObZ0ZE by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-28T21:20:09Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@sturgman That im not sure about actually. I remeber them generally closing in the rain even without lightening. But i dont remember. I usually go to private pools.@peterdrake @trinsec
(DIR) Post #AU7IaL6K2YaOw4oHcO by pj@qoto.org
2023-03-29T16:12:21Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
@freemoInteresting theory about why guns are so loved in the US: White Southerners started cultivating the tradition of the home arsenal immediately after the Civil War because of insecurities and racial fears. During the rest of the 19th century, those anxieties metamorphosized into a fetishization of the firearm to the point that, in the present day, gun owners view their weapons as adding meaning and a sense of purpose to their lives.https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-the-gun-became-integral-to-the-self-identity-of-millions-of-americans/
(DIR) Post #AU7IjpnZHEYekTZ7ey by icedquinn@blob.cat
2023-03-29T18:58:44.684772Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
@pj @freemo preventing the crown from disarming everyone again to rule over them is why its in the bill of rights.racists trying to kill black people (who defended themselves with rifle) is why modern gun control was made.
(DIR) Post #AU7JK1isQ69Q9kd3tQ by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-29T19:05:14Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@icedquinn @pj Sounds about right.
(DIR) Post #AU7JiVEuKU9CeOHYvo by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-29T19:06:24Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @freemo My understanding is that this concern goes back to the founding of the USA and that the 2nd amendment “well regulated militia” refers to concerns of white Southerners about their ability to respond to slave rebellions. Like Harper’s Ferry.
(DIR) Post #AU7JiVyzZ90ixJqMlM by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-29T19:09:36Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pjThe militia thing was hardly a slave rebellion idea. I mean thr northwas just as well armed and there were concerns about oppressive governemnts. Dont get me wrong slave rebellion was probably a factor too, but it was really a long list of concerns fueling the mentality
(DIR) Post #AU7KNIJzGNtkSV6pSi by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-29T19:17:01Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj Sources for my comment:https://www.npr.org/2021/06/02/1002107670/historian-uncovers-the-racist-roots-of-the-2nd-amendment\https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/opinion/second-amendment-slavery-james-madison.htmlI take that view from the publications of these historians.The often stated view of individuals being armed against the government seems to me to be a bit shakier in view of how the fledgling US government responded to things like the Whiskey rebellion. If they sincerely wanted individuals to be able to shoot federal agents, they would not have responded so strongly to those attacks.
(DIR) Post #AU7KuVqnyyZTyXIbya by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-29T19:22:59Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pjFair. I suspect the desire to be armed against a slave rebellion is why today the south is a bit more gun happy… but still doesnt explain why the north was so progun as well.
(DIR) Post #AU7LW5bnzv1BakCX56 by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-29T19:29:51Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj Slavery was definitely not the only factor in drafting the 2nd amendment.Also, the colonies were more rural at that time than most of the USA is now and the country as a whole was in a more precarious state.I feel that a lot of the division on gun rights in the USA is a rural/urban divide. Living at my uncle’s ranch in West Texas, you really need a gun for pest control, etc. In the college town where I live now, a gun really has zero utility. So residents of those two regions will have a legitimate difference of opinion.Finding that guns provide a “sense of meaning to your life” as stated in the Scientific American article is not something I would be able to accept anyway. Neither do I get a sense of self from my car, house, etc.
(DIR) Post #AU7os1EVqPYx3v7CL2 by pj@qoto.org
2023-03-30T00:56:24Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @freemoMany, especially younger, people get a sense of self from things such as guns, cars, and boats, but that’s not the point.A “well-regulated militia” doesn’t mean everyone can simply buy an assault rifle at the nearby grocery store. You can’t do this in Switzerland or Israel where I believe everyone that is supposed to, have a gun, but, afaik, there are no mass shootings like in the US.Something is wrong with a society where you can’t drive a car without a permit or even a medical exam if you are of a certain age, but you can own a gun without any restrictions.
(DIR) Post #AU7os1pjc1KwvMWvM8 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-30T00:58:41Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @rrbA well regulayed militia is not the sole protecyion of thr second ammendment. It is added as an exemplifying claise not a qualifying clause. This has been clearly established by the authors.We have more than enough quotes from the authors to know they very clearly meant everyone had unrestricted access to weaponry (even heavy artillary)
(DIR) Post #AU7p0FBdqgIcehh6fY by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-30T01:00:12Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @rrbAlso for the record i think the requirement of a permit to drive a car is an i justice as well. It should be a garunteed freedom.
(DIR) Post #AU7ybayogUVMY1a4Lg by pj@qoto.org
2023-03-30T02:47:51Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @rrbYes. Let the bad drivers expunge themselves naturally, either by dying after hitting a tree or being killed when they hit someone having a gun.😀If you take this stance then requiring proof of competence or professional credentials from let’s say, engineers, medical personnel, and similar jobs where one can do lots of harm if they don’t know what they are doing is also an attack on their freedom.Everyone should be allowed to build and sell highrises and airplanes using whatever or no standards, as they like. That’s their freedom. If people die when one of those fails, who cares, they should have known better and protected themselves.Alternatively, their families (with guns) can get such bad actors permanently out of business so only the “good ones” will remain.Actually, this may work😀
(DIR) Post #AU7ynyCUB2B22WsJdo by realcaseyrollins@social.teci.world
2023-03-30T02:50:05.297510Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
What? This argument doesn’t hold.There is a right to bear arms, there’s no right to drive. Furthermore, I admit even as a fan of the #2A, with both gun use and car driving, you’re not the only one who can be harmed in these scenarios, so to say that bad drivers will just die out in darwinian fashion and all the bad drivers will be gone with minimal consequences just isn’t true.
(DIR) Post #AU7zG4VALIBXgv0pbk by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-30T02:55:08Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @rrbMany states dont require boating licenses, works out just fine for the boaters. You also dont need a license to fly an ultralight plane, even with a passanger, works out well there too.As for high rises, same thing, make sure someone is checking the highrise meets code in its planning and building phase, as long as it does its safe to build regardless of ghe credentials of the person who designed it.We have countless examples of this sort of stuff being very workable and safe without needing licensing by having other mechanisms that ensure safety.
(DIR) Post #AU7zSXNmn0aKjsVLvM by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-30T02:57:23Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@realcaseyrollins @pj @rrb I am not claiming there is a constitutional right. I am claiming that i consider it a right based on first principles.
(DIR) Post #AU8013HkgNJDWs8kcq by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-30T03:03:37Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@realcaseyrollins @pj @rrb As a side note there is the constitutional "right to travel" which garubtees a citizen the free movement between states. One could argue restricting ones access to conveyence is an infringement, albeit indirect, on ones constituional right to interstate travel
(DIR) Post #AU80AMD5gpQKpVOfy4 by realcaseyrollins@social.teci.world
2023-03-30T03:05:21.395270Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
Rather interesting. I don’t know if that would effectively hold (for example, “assault weapons” are a type of gun, and have been banned, and similarly cars are merely one form of travel, so I’m guessing they could be banned also), but I didn’t even know this was a constitutional right.
(DIR) Post #AU80McE5y3o1yhiD32 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-30T03:07:31Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@realcaseyrollins @pj @rrb It absolutely would not hold up in court. But just as i think any bans on assault weapons is unconstitutional i am free to feel the same about banning access to vehicals. My interpritation of the constitution doesnt have to match that of ghe supreme court of the day, just as todays supreme court interprits thr constitution radically different than earlier supreme courts.
(DIR) Post #AU81GKUV5vEdBnx59c by thesuperpapagai@fosstodon.org
2023-03-30T03:17:35Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo Yeah, school shootings are technically a small percentage of shootings, but kids being shot in America is still incredibly common and a literal everyday occurrence.
(DIR) Post #AU81RX0OuF7BBiDMEC by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-30T03:19:37Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@thesuperpapagai yes thats fair kids being shot in general, as well as being murdered by other means, is quite common.Partitioning it based on thr tool used to kill though seems counterproductive to me, especially when those tools are equally used to protect and prevent deaths as well.
(DIR) Post #AU826dS9q3IL3enVFA by thesuperpapagai@fosstodon.org
2023-03-30T03:27:04Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo No, talking about the tool is very relevant because they're plenty of kids who are shot by a stray bullets from arguments they weren't involved. You don't exactly hear stories of people being struck by stray stabbings.And, while you could kill someone with a wide variety of tools, guns are obviously one of the most effective tools.
(DIR) Post #AU82XQLWg5vYE5TA0m by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-30T03:31:52Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@thesuperpapagai Yes, and guns are far more effective at saving lives too, for much the same reason. The thing about tools is thry help both good and bad people. So you will do more by focusing on addressing bad people than addressing access to tools.
(DIR) Post #AU8z0flocGOLLWk2aG by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-30T14:27:05Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj Do you have citations for those quotes?It does not seem to match actions of the US government at that time. (ex. Whiskey rebellion).
(DIR) Post #AU8zHqkZ2xCAK3LZzc by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-30T14:30:09Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pjIve shared tons of quotes along those lines before. Id have to dig them up again.. i remember in one case one of the fiunding fathers talking about how the mikitia meant “all the people”, we have an example of the governement when it was new and the foubding fathers were still politicians explixitly approving private purchase of cannons, all sorts of thjngs, but id need to dig it all up again. I am on my phone so will have to do that from my computer
(DIR) Post #AU8zLCa8KiRQtw4Bc0 by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-30T14:30:15Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj Eye tests? Epilepsy? Repeated DWI? Or just repeated accidents?I just wonder about that.Like the current case before the supreme court dealing with a man whose wife got a restraining order after he pointed a gun at her head and threatened to kill her, shot at witnesses, and threatened law enforcement officers with his gun. I think there are some people, for example schizophrenics, who should not have guns.
(DIR) Post #AU8zf5ueq0UC0e9UHo by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-30T14:34:21Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pjA person shoukd be expected to make sure they are fit to drive and are liable if thry dont. So yes a person woukd have to choose to take those tests to avoid negelgence and liability of course but that doesnt mean the government woukd administer or check the tests.But more importantly talking about people with psychological disorders, thats a very dangerous restricgion. If you start taking away rights because someone sees a doctor and gets diagnosed the end result is people avoiding mental health for fear of loosing thier rights. Thats a horrible jdea.
(DIR) Post #AU90E5QCejV8caao5Y by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-30T14:40:41Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj“A free people ought not only to be armed, but disciplined…” George Washington“No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms.” Thomas Jefferson“The laws that forbid the carrying of arms are laws of such a nature. They disarm only those who are neither inclined nor determined to commit crimes…. Such laws make things worse for the assaulted and better for the assailants; they serve rather to encourage than to prevent homicides, for an unarmed man may be attacked with greater confidence than an armed man.” Thomas Jefferson“The Constitution of most of our states (and of the United States) assert that all power is inherent in the people; that they may exercise it by themselves; that it is their right and duty to be at all times armed.” Thomas Jefferson“I ask who are the militia? They consist now of the whole people, except a few public officers.” George Mason
(DIR) Post #AU90NW8igk745lubYW by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-30T14:42:23Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pjThis is all from a quick search. Being on my phone i didnt have time to verify them so you may want to double check them.
(DIR) Post #AU91M2iwfaSkWdiVvc by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-30T14:53:21Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj That is good.Thanks.
(DIR) Post #AU99RucmUm7AmC8xIu by pj@qoto.org
2023-03-30T16:24:04Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @rrbThat’s all I’m asking: effective collective “mechanisms that ensure safety” enforced by the community, elected government, or whatever, that work for the vast majority of their constituents.Giving everyone guns and saying that this is for their protection just doesn’t work for most people, despite what Jefferson was thinking when he said that having a gun will more likely prevent someone from attacking them.
(DIR) Post #AU9A8rE30Zdcge3Iy8 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-30T16:31:46Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @rrbWhat we know is that gubs arent the solution, but we know they arent the problem either. Banning them in a violent society makes things more violent. Im willing to suspect in a peaceful society banning them or not has no effect.The solutions lie in changing our environments to be healthy, and improving access to mental health (which by the way is the exact opposite of what woukd haplen kf we toom away gun rights from people who seek therapy and get diagnosed)
(DIR) Post #AU9E9bhMcgZSdWNTm4 by pj@qoto.org
2023-03-30T17:16:47Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @rrbThat's the thing you think having a gun is a *right* while I believe it is a *privilege*, you have to first assure the community you will not do them harm if they give you that privilege.
(DIR) Post #AU9ELHJIFfVMsWgTlw by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-30T17:18:51Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @rrb No the right vs privilage argument is secondary for me... im a scientist i care about what works. What i know is the numbers show almost every time, you ban guns it either has no net benefit or, more kften, causes violent acts, especially rape, to sky rocket.I support guns because banning them takes lives.
(DIR) Post #AU9ExNxhy7IAVrl6h6 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-30T17:25:47Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @rrb And the whole schizophrenic thing... doesnt matter if you thinknifs a privilage or a right. If you tell people they will no longer have access to guns and the ability tonuse it to protect themselves if thry go seek therapy and happen to get a mental health diagnosis, then leople will avoid therapy... you just made things way worse not better.
(DIR) Post #AU9OFchMohZx17t1sG by pj@qoto.org
2023-03-30T19:09:55Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @rrb I don’t understand how's having a gun to protect oneself from a sick (or just evil) person is a better solution than making sure those people can't get a gun in the first place.Using more guns to protect against bad people with guns is only good for gun manufacturers. And nobody is asking the outright *banning* of guns, just to make sure peoplw that want them have the capacity to use them safely.
(DIR) Post #AUALVzm1p7qCCHGfDc by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T06:13:56Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @rrb Because guns are an ewualizer.. a woman without a gun against a man without a gun, thry are on equal footing.Almost always its the stronger praying on thr weaker. Guns equalize that.
(DIR) Post #AUB0juuimk73Id5h0C by pj@qoto.org
2023-03-31T13:55:53Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @rrb This is not in the Wild West anymore. I thought the government as an instrument of a civilized society was responsible for the protection of its citizens, especially the weak. You say these people would be alive today if only they had guns. I believe some of them may have owned one, and one of the people killed, a police officer Const. Heidi Stevenson had used her and died anyway:https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/a-look-at-the-22-nova-scotians-killed-in-canada-s-worst-mass-shooting-1.6335839
(DIR) Post #AUB1LoMbaT9TzLCd5U by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:02:42Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @rrb No its not the wild west, and in theory polkce shoukd orotect us... but in practice thst makes little sense. Police come when you call them and there is going to be a delay no matter how well funded. You cant even call police if your being jumped or raped most of the time.In the end its great to talk about ideals and what shoukd be or shouldnt be. But we have to schknowledge reality, and the reality is that in most incidents the police will never be a reliable security.For example only 46% of violent crimes in general are reported, i suspect much less for rape. Of those reported only 30% even result in an arrest. Its clear from these numbers very very few, if any, rape cases are acted on by police and prevented.
(DIR) Post #AUB2PcU7nHQoGA6FFo by pj@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:14:38Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @rrb It is not just the police. Their role is to react to incidents and investigate afterward. I'm talking about #prevention. Gun ownership regulation is a part of it but not all.The killer in this instance had a history of domestic abuse and obvious mental issues but nobody bothered to check his guns, two of which were smuggled from the US.
(DIR) Post #AUB2WogGqe9W6zDF6e by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:15:55Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @rrb If someone is smuggling in guns and giving them to people that currently arent legally allowed guns, i think youd find everyone would agree that needs to be prevented.
(DIR) Post #AUB2njlWNOeLn2jkQa by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:17:00Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @freemo Remember, in this thread he objected to not arming violent schizophrenics who are hallucinating and threatening people.
(DIR) Post #AUB2nkY5SpUwDfSX7w by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:18:54Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj Incorrect. I said that using a persons medical diagnosis to take away rights will result in people avoiding medical diagnosis and make matters worse.At no point did i even suggest that a person where there is evidence of violent ghreats (which are illegal btw) shoukd have access to a gun.Lets stick to the facts and not start twisting what people say please.
(DIR) Post #AUB3EG4qrewrX4QOno by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:23:47Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj Did not mean to misrepresent. I mentioned extreme risks and people with schizophrenia specifically, you said that mental health issues were not relevant. Sorry, if I misunderstood. That was how your statement sounded to me.Whereas, the Supreme Court is currently looking at returning guns to a man who held a gun to his partner's head while threatening to kill her, shot at witnesses, and threatened police officers with his gun.I would hope that you would agree people in this class should not be armed. (Which puts you in the pro-gun control camp in the current US situation.)
(DIR) Post #AUB3OyjDhvmCuYQ0uW by pj@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:25:43Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @rrbYes, and it would help a lot if the country from where they are smuggled wouldn't sell them like cupcakes.One has to register appliances these days, but guns? God forbid.
(DIR) Post #AUB3VhnD4Xk4PgUaWW by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:26:53Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj mistakes happen. Whether i wasnt clear or you misheard, the jmportant part is we clarify when that happens, and thsts what we just did, all good.If you have threatened to use violence, or used it, and there is evidence to show it, that is illegal. You shoukd wind up in jail and have your access to guns revoked for the forseeable future. When and how you can get thst right back and prove your reabilitated is another matter, and i dont have the answer to thar. But for the forseeable future if the acts you described can be proven then the person shouldnt just be loosing a right to guns, thry shoukd be in prison.
(DIR) Post #AUB3rHiWhX0nucajz6 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:30:49Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @rrb The issue with gun registration is that one day thr government may become oppressive and make guns illegal and thrn those registrations can be used by an oppessive govt.The other issue is profiling. Cops might use registrations to target people as suspected and as such owning a gun, even if you never use it, makes you a target of wrongful arrest.We already have a "one-way" system that is essentially a registrstion. As long as you have a gun or its serial number you can track it back to who owned it, but not the other way around. Assuming it is all legal of course.
(DIR) Post #AUB45jt8l3tDL0RrvM by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:33:23Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj Judge in TX ruled that those conditions are not sufficient to take away a gun and the Supreme Court is reviewing the case. Most commentators expect them to return the gun to the domestic abuser:https://publichealth.jhu.edu/the-fifth-circuit-court-decides-to-protect-abusers-guns
(DIR) Post #AUB4Cpdllp2DCkdo3M by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:34:41Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj Id have to read up on the case.. but if you hold a gun to someones head who is not being violent and threaten to kill them, and there is evidence to show this, id obviousky support them taking their gun away.
(DIR) Post #AUB4D8M2Bz8bFFUPY0 by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:34:48Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj A large percent of gun sales are not registered or tracked. Private sales are not tracked.
(DIR) Post #AUB4QSLDC3H4ztSPwW by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:37:12Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._RahimiOverturned by an appeals court in TX
(DIR) Post #AUB4cwOVHZnxgEwyX2 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:39:24Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj This is about restraining orders. And speaking generally that makes sense. You do not need tonprove someone was violent to get a restraining order. Generally they are trivial to get and at no point is there a cojrt case with evidence and a jury being evaluated.... so no someone shoukd t loose their rights to a gun due to having a restraining order unless the violent acts have been proven in court.
(DIR) Post #AUB5Kqxiq7LDZiMXKq by pj@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:47:23Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @rrb This is a "strawman" argument. You can't base your current safety policies on the remote possibility that the government may one day become oppressive.All governments are more or less oppressive but the good thing is that they don't survive for too long and inevitably collapse when they become too oppressive.
(DIR) Post #AUB5joQxNSvUyMwEBE by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:51:52Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @rrb My argumebt was only half about that. The other hakf was about profiling, whicb we all know would and is an issue right now.Having a gun in and of itself, something that is a rigbt, shoukd not be able to be used to generate suspicion, which is the only real ourpose of a register.Now if you susoect someone because of actual evidence, then you have the right, and can, search the records and lookup based on the serial number.Its the same reason cops cant look up who is poor in order to create a list of suspects for a robbery.
(DIR) Post #AUB5r9v9t4RDdnZGvQ by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:53:13Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj Registry would be useful for tracking guns used in crimes. Which I see as a positive use case.
(DIR) Post #AUB6BPgMzotyJeJCFc by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:56:51Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj You already have that its just carefully designed to be one way. If you have a gun used in a crime you can track it to its owner. What you cant do is pull up all people in an area that own guns as you coukd with a normal registry.... just as it shoukd be.
(DIR) Post #AUB6S73XV9PjTE6oYi by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:59:54Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj Most gun sales are not record. Only 40% of sales are recorded:https://www.aap.org/en/advocacy/state-advocacy/universal-background-checks-for-gun-purchases/Most (60%) are not recorded with no background checks. This does not deal with 3-D printing of guns
(DIR) Post #AUB77KtewmF2Gl911M by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T15:07:19Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj You are reading that wrong.. 40% are through a federally licensed dealer... ALL sales must record serial numbers as it is a legal requirement of all sales. This is true regardless of if the seller is federally licensed or not.
(DIR) Post #AUB7vFasw9DcInADx2 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T15:16:19Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj That link has no information about record of sales.. talks about percentage that are federally licensed or not, nothing else...
(DIR) Post #AUB8XrgJmC2NQu7Mn2 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T15:23:19Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj Ok so just checked... all gu sales in all ststes by dealers (this appesrs to inckude gun shows) require record keeping.Private sales only requires record keeping in 19 states, though these are demcrat states mostly so thry do represent thr overwhelming majority of the usa population.I woukd be ok with supporting a federal law that extended the record keeping requirements on gun sales as they currently exist toninckude all private sales.
(DIR) Post #AUB9KMFhQ0S497n4HA by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T15:32:05Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj How about laws mandating safe storage?Currently 1/3 of guns stolen are not secured in parked cars. Secure boxes for parked cars are inexpensive, as are trigger locks.
(DIR) Post #AUBA5eWPJJxYQ09oNk by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T15:40:37Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj I think existing liability law could probably handle that well enough... if you have something stolen and were negligent about storage you might have some liability.That said id be willing to explore it.My only concern there is 1) the rules for storage cant be prohibitive such as requiring a safe which many people wont have money or access to2) the user should be allowed to keep it unlocked and without a trigger lock at a minimum while they are home ao in the case of a home invasion thry have quick access to itOne might expect that if you keep a gun at home youd take reasonable precautions if you left town such as security camera or somethibg maybe. As long as the two concerns above are properly balanced i would consider more discussion about ways we could better address this.
(DIR) Post #AUBAAIdo5d0G0Lpmts by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T15:41:27Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj And yea i think affordable mechnisms like trigger locks for cars when you arent in them as well as affordable lock boxes might be reasonable.
(DIR) Post #AUBAEG4XaAxjCDE65I by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T15:42:13Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
@freemo @pj I like the idea of mandating insurance and letting the market work this out. If you maintain things well, cost should be low. Risky behavior would cause cost to be prohibitive.
(DIR) Post #AUBAy633BSR9QaO2KW by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T15:50:28Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj Yea me too.. put the liability on the owner and have an expectation of responsible behavior.
(DIR) Post #AUBF8b5L2mEKOpifVA by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T14:52:00Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @freemo While I do not accept freemo's "slippery slope" argument, because that negates any government action, I think you are much too positive about history and governments. Democracy and rule of law is the exception and short lived to date. Look around you, most governments are oppressive and are not going anywhere. Democracy is also in retreat most everywhere. In decline for the last 17 years:https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2023/marking-50-years
(DIR) Post #AUBF8bf8tes0BsTGJE by pj@qoto.org
2023-03-31T16:33:22Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @freemo Agree. As I've said all governments are oppressive by definition, because they have to #regulate things that inevitably infringe on an individual's #freedom (e.g. the "freedom" to shoot at whomever they want).All I'm saying is that guns are not the only and, I would argue, not the most effective tool to get rid of oppressive undemocratic governments.
(DIR) Post #AUBF8cI8Yg3u8oiP5c by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T16:37:10Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @rrb Dominic : What do you think will happen? Finch : What usually happens when people without guns stand up to people *with* guns.-- V is for vendettaAn unarmed populace revolting agaibst their government is a sure recipie for mass slaughter.
(DIR) Post #AUBHuXYJgHOZFfGKeG by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T17:06:30Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @freemo Peaceful protest twice as likely to get rid of oppressive government. Takes 3.5% of population:https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world
(DIR) Post #AUBHuY7lYTkf1bqdu4 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T17:08:15Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj Absolutely.. no one is saying guns shoukd be the first and only form of fixing things.Rebellion and use of guns is **not** a replacement to peaceful protest. It is the uttermost final response when peacefulnprotest fails and/or is met with violence.
(DIR) Post #AUBHulWhj4QMaicF4y by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T17:08:20Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj With modern militaries, civilian guns will not do it.For that, you need insurgencies and stealth. Armaments are not the deciding factor.
(DIR) Post #AUBIAQqoMiSX6GUVjE by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T17:11:10Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj Love the photos here as an example of peaceful removal of a dictator. I worked with some of the people responsible for the protests:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-burkina-politics/protests-force-out-burkina-president-soldiers-vie-for-power-idUSKBN0IJ0NZ20141031
(DIR) Post #AUBIBIbmUoWRpHsGnY by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T17:11:17Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj The is a very naive statement. For starters stealth engagment still uses guns.. second the response to "in a fight the otherside will overpower you" is not to go "ok in that case we should reduce the fighting power of the ubderdog even more so".We also have modern exam
(DIR) Post #AUBICSbEpmrx6SAqwq by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T17:11:33Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj The is a very naive statement. For starters stealth engagment still uses guns.. second the response to "in a fight the otherside will overpower you" is not to go "ok in that case we should reduce the fighting power of the ubderdog even more so".
(DIR) Post #AUBIKNe38hrU3MGWzw by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T17:12:55Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj Again no one is claiming you cant peacefully remove a dictator. The argumrnt is you need a fallback for thr tines when peace doesnt work. We also have coubtkess examples of failed attempts at peacefully overthrowing a dictator.
(DIR) Post #AUBINmWZ5yFO5FO27s by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T17:13:35Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj Maybe. I feel that way after hearing people in my area talking about keeping long rifles to take on the US Army. I keep telling them their pea shooters are not going to work against the US military.
(DIR) Post #AUBIRlslQLldFcfkWG by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T17:14:17Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj Myanmar. Iran. Belorussia. Come to mind.
(DIR) Post #AUBIUPaKmUTGxxJLYu by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T17:14:45Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj Soubds like a good argument to allow civilians to own heavy artillary thrn. You certainly are convincing me ;)
(DIR) Post #AUBIY1iZSc9m6Mt5V2 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T17:15:24Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj And can you think of examples of unarmed people peacefully protesting being slaughtered? I bet you can, there are tons.
(DIR) Post #AUBIgtrS2c3oLBGwhU by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T17:17:02Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj India comes to mind. East Berlin, too. Iran. Yes.
(DIR) Post #AUBIl5iZtpRyGx7Wy0 by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T17:17:47Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj Civil war is almost never a good option.
(DIR) Post #AUBIvbgJul3EIl4vy4 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T17:19:39Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj agreed, keyword being always.Guns as a check on government is and should be a last resort after all peaceful options are exhausted... peace can and will work most of the time if the public supports it... but that doesnt change the fact that guns act as a good security when all else fails.There is a reason the most cruel and injust governments always make disarming the people a priority.
(DIR) Post #AUBLax4tT4fkRUPnxw by Clementulus@qoto.org
2023-03-31T17:49:34Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
@freemo @rrb @pj An interesting discussion. As someone who works in policing in canada I have been exposed to a lot of information about gun use in crime and the pros/cons of gun ownership and use in general. One of the aspects I think that you overlook when arguing that people would be safer if everyone carried around guns is that the vast majority of altercations, whether physical or otherwise, come about when otherwise reasonable individuals become emotionally disturbed or incensed (drugs and alcohol often contribute to this), then they make decisions they otherwise would not. A huge percentage of assaults/suicides by guns occur in residences where they are not safely stored, because individuals in the midst of an emotional episode can grab them and use them without a chance for a second thought. Suicide is also a huge one, you are *far* more likely to successfully commit suicide if there is a gun in your home and seeing as how the rate of suicidality in most developed countries keeps on increasing, probably the best reason to not own a gun is to protect you from yourself! And I think the argument for America being a naturally more violent country than other developed nations is not adequately supported by evidence, people in canada get into altercations all the time, but so few of them involve firearms that they are less likely to turn deadly, in fact, the communities within Canada that have the most fatal altercations are the very ones with the highest prevalence of gun ownership! Not having easy access to guns is certainly helping to prevent a ton of needless gun deaths. While it is true that a dedicated individual can acquire the necessary firepower to commit an atrocity, like what happened a few years ago in Nova Scotia, that event took years of planning and preparation; what gun control helps to prevent are the deaths that occur from more temporary insanities.
(DIR) Post #AUBNiGrGWXbZj0et7I by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T18:13:16Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@Clementulus @rrb @pj Well said and an excellent contribution to the conversation, so thank you for that.So a lot to unload here.. I'll start with the easier part to address, the suicide.I have a fairly unpopular opinion that suicide is a fundamental right that extends from bodily autonomy. Everyone has a right to commit suicide and we should not be in the business of blocking access to something based on it being an easy means for suicide. That said I do feel we should do our best as a society to provide a healthy environment, easy access to mental health, and generally do our best to make sure society does everything in its power to give people the means to not want to commit suicide. but in the end if thats what they want, they should have the right.That said, as you say, a person may if they have a gun commit suicide where they wouldnt otherwise want to, it was just a rash spur of the moment thing.. well I think that is also for them to consider when they buy a gun... educate that and tell them "Hey if you buy a gun remember in a moment of insanity you might kill yourself, so now, while you are thinking rationally please consider locking it up, or maybe not buying one at all so that doesnt happen"... then if they still decide they want that gun and are ok with that risk, so be it, that is their choice.So based on my views I can more or less dismiss the suicide argument.A very similar argument is made when we talk about violent acts against another. You are right many of those decisions are because the gun is right there, and its in the heat of the moment. Well thats still the responsibility of the sober cool headed person to make and protect themselves from themselves You know what your like and the risks you may pose in the heat of the moment and you should use that to judge if you trust yourself with a gun or not. As for the government, it would protect against this through looking at past acts of violence. If someone has the tendency to pull out a gun and shoot someone in the heat of the moment, without a gun they are likly going to be punching or maybe stabbing people for similar reasons. So a past record of violence would ultimately serve as a protection and people with a history of violence should have a criminal record that prevents them from owning a gun in the first place.In fact if we really wanted to use that logic to make guns illegal if we wanted to be fair we would have to make a lot of things illegal, including alcohol itself. We expect people to know and regulate themselves, if you are the type of person who looses control on alcohol and will drive drunk, then sober you should be refusing to drink alcohol... if you dont, thats on you. But we dont make alcohol illegal just because some people will act irrational if they have it.I think we all know exactly the sort of people who are likely to succumb to temporary insanity, and the people who are like that know too. Clear headed them is responsible to plan ahead for momentary insanity them. Just as sober me is expected to make the right judgement calls to protect myself and others against drunk me, if there are any such concerns.
(DIR) Post #AUBQ8GKtHtbbXj2Lom by Clementulus@qoto.org
2023-03-31T18:40:22Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @rrb @pj I understand your points but I was not arguing for guns to be illegal. The vast majority of guns available to americans are also legal to buy and own in Canada, the difference however is that there is a much more involved process to acquiring guns, including mandatory safety courses. The process is especially detailed for those who wish to own handguns (statistically the most deadly firearm in developed nations). This process, along with the lack of cultural fixation on gun ownership is what keeps the numbers of guns in circulation down and not outright bans. These safety measures also helps us keep guns out of the hands of habitually violent criminals because there are far fewer black market guns to buy and fewer legal ones to steal. It would be amusing to an american to know how many petty criminals in canada resort to shooting each other with pellet and bb guns simply because it is so difficult for them to find actual guns, whether through theft or illegal purchase. And while many violent altercations will result in injury and death regardless of firearm involvement, it seems illogical to me to argue that those very altercations would be equally deadly if everyone was strapped. Also speaking to the attitude of police officers on the job here in Canada, there is definitely a whole lot of stress that is avoided because it is so rare that they have to deal with perps with access to guns. With the number of mental health related calls that police respond to daily here I couldnt imagine how they would feel if they knew that these people could very well have loaded firearms in their possession. I know quite a few cops with 30+ years on the job who only needed to draw their sidearm for a call a handfull of times in their entire careers! And it was not for lack of calls, but because they rarely felt that they needed them, because their perps werent packing heat.
(DIR) Post #AUBQFtoKv3Cw01S2sq by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T18:41:47Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @Clementulus @pj There is an epidemic of suicide among US veterans with PTSD. The issue is that usually there is never a second attempt and guns are more likely to make it be successful. Medical personnel try to advise people with PTSD to not have a firearm just to avoid the temptation. I would assume you are OK with people, on their own, removing the temptation, right? Congress has made it illegal for the VA to discuss firearms with patients.
(DIR) Post #AUBQTGrWWfKnFyJnRg by DutyBard@qoto.org
2023-03-31T18:44:13Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @freemo @pj it’s interesting how much one’s views are moulded by one’s environment. “Home invasion” is just not something we think of in the UK. Because, absent easy guns, it is astonishingly rare. And as it is astonishingly rare I feel no need - in my isolated house in the country - to have anything at hand for “defence”. I guess had I been brought up in the US I would have a different attitude. And there are counties with high rates of gun ownership but low rates of gun crime - but usually they seem to have guns as a result of military training and have a less casual regard for them.
(DIR) Post #AUBQWmc8vgYybOnajo by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T18:44:49Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@Clementulus @rrb @pj Fair, though I think my response would apply equally in defense against restrictions as well... my general argument is, if you dont have a violent past then its up to you as a person to keep yourself in check, much as we do with alcohol.
(DIR) Post #AUBQlN0WPvClWn9pFA by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T18:47:27Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb Since I support access to suicide obviously I want those means to be effective (half-successful suicide in many cases is probably worse, brain damage and all just making their problems more).I dont think we should be removing the temptation if that means removing the means to commit suicide no.. if anything we should provide easy access to the means to suicide... what we should be providing, however, is easy access to mental health and an environment where fewer people develop a state of wanting to commit suicide.. we should do our best to help provide support so people dont commit suicide. But in the end the access to suicide should be with no barriers.@Clementulus @pj
(DIR) Post #AUBR9hKsULVzWcHNKq by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T18:51:51Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@DutyBard Its not the easy access to guns that makes it so rare. Most home invasions in the USA are done by people without guns, largely because if they are robbing your home they are like drug addicted and/or poor and never had the money for a gun.The reason home invasions in the UK is rare is likely many other factors such as how children are raised or easier access to mental health.In fact when the UK banned guns violent crimes of all sorts skyrocketed and never really recovered. So from a relative perspective this seems contrary to the facts.@rrb @pj
(DIR) Post #AUBRQu7eCXvO6ZINLk by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T18:50:36Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@DutyBard @freemo @pj Actually, this is not a reality but a perception. Having guns in the home greatly increases your chance of death by firearm. This is especially true for the women and children in the family.2/3 of death by firearms in USA are suicides. The next largest reason for firearm injury is domestic dispute.Knowledge that firearms are in the house does not deter incursions. It makes it more attractive. Firearm thefts are a large source of illegal guns. And the reason for most car break-ins.There is an industry being fed by this disinformation.
(DIR) Post #AUBRQucqKYsVfJtHyS by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T18:54:57Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @DutyBard @pj This is a very intellectually dishonest talking point... **of course** having a gun in your home drastically increases your chances of death by firearm. Much in the same way that getting a vaccine drastically increases your chance of death by vaccine.. Both of these arguments are intellectually dishonest because they frame the question in a biased way and ignore the fact that they also simultaneously significantly increase your chances of **not** dying from non-firearm related deaths (like stabbings, or baseball bats, or even just being raped)
(DIR) Post #AUBRVfavdtdAUoGQRk by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T18:55:52Z
0 likes, 1 repeats
@freemo @Clementulus @pj But explaining risk factors to patients so that they can think ahead and avoid putting there lives at risk in the future would be something your previous statements lead me to believe you should support.I am fine with euthanasia and personal freedom of choice regarding suicide. But, informing people so they can plan ahead to avoid spur of the moment irrevocable decisions seems like a good idea.
(DIR) Post #AUBRiHPGssxNF6p9qS by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T18:58:05Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb I absolutely do support explaining risk factors to patience and causing them to think ahead.. but it has to be their choice, not forced on them.For example if it were required that every gun shop have a mental health pamphlet explaining these risks and a number to call for consultation and they were encouraged to take one before buying a gun, id totally support that.Hell I'd even support taxing guns and using that tax to pay for the psychologist to see them and have that conversation to ensure that it would be a free service.But in the end if they want to buy the gun, they should be able to, even if they want to use it to die.@Clementulus @pj
(DIR) Post #AUBUGoFtSYfusL1xKq by DutyBard@qoto.org
2023-03-31T19:26:47Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @rrb @pj just looked up comparative gun death rates: USA is 51 times more than UK. That is a lot.
(DIR) Post #AUBUWGALyFTDmZo3hg by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T19:29:34Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@DutyBardSure, and do you understand why that statistic isnt just irrelevant to the conversation but intellectually dishonest…I said this elsewhere in a co-thread but ill say it again.Of course gun deaths are less in countries that ban or restrict guns.. much in the same way that vaccine deaths would be less in any country that bans vaccines. That is an argument people use who are trying to use stats to manipulate people rather than provide a fair and objective argument. The argument for guns is that it prevents non-gun deaths not that it prevents gun deaths. Much as the argument for vaccines is that it prevents non-vaccine related deaths, not for presenting death by vaccine.@rrb @pj
(DIR) Post #AUBUgBAHQ5plARVBTM by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T19:31:20Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@DutyBardinb4: make sure if you evaluate overall deaths you do so relative to a change in a law within its own country (what we call granger causality test)… To compare between disseparate countries as an absolute is likewise intellectually dishonest for other reasons.@rrb @pj
(DIR) Post #AUBV8iL5fiaeAFAIQC by DutyBard@qoto.org
2023-03-31T19:36:32Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @freemo @pj what country would be a suitable comparator?
(DIR) Post #AUBVL95q1jVKcCxVBo by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T19:38:44Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@DutyBard None, you dont compare countries to each other, you compare a country to itself both before and after a gun ban... The effect (change in violence or rape rates or whatever) should follow the effect (a ban on guns or a revocation of a ban) with a time delayed lag (roughly the time it takes for the effect to take effect). You do this, comparing several instances across several countries, and see if a pattern emerges.@rrb @pj
(DIR) Post #AUBVgfrpMwWyLLffCC by rrb@qoto.org
2023-03-31T19:41:25Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@DutyBard @freemo @pj None. Us has more guns per capita than anyone else. But, a fair comparison is life expectancy, see the graph in:https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/03/25/1164819944/live-free-and-die-the-sad-state-of-u-s-life-expectancyGuns, health care system, obesity, nutrition, criminalization of gynecology, all of that plays a role.
(DIR) Post #AUBVggRHF8t47IFyS0 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T19:42:36Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb Which is why you never compare countries to answer this question, way too many factors at play... also why a granger causality test for a country against itself before and after a fun ban, looking if it effects various types of violence is a far more credible way to analyze the question@DutyBard @pj
(DIR) Post #AUBZYtw3ZzfTTWCLaq by pj@qoto.org
2023-03-31T20:26:04Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemoYou for sure have a lot of examples or even statistics that shows how many good people with guns avoided being killed or raped by people without guns. @DutyBard @rrb
(DIR) Post #AUBZik6QzYQ7sLkFSS by freemo@qoto.org
2023-03-31T20:27:50Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj Yea there is no shortage of examples of guns saving lives, and there are admifditly a lot of examples of them taking lives... the key is figuring out which one is larger.. the problem is we document murder with a gun far more rigerously than we document murder-prevention with a gun.@DutyBard @rrb
(DIR) Post #AUBloCPsLhFuaQCsrI by pj@qoto.org
2023-03-31T22:43:18Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemoAny idea where to find out more or maybe an analysis about such occurrences?Does the NRA maybe keep record and track such instances? If I was in their position and making the argument that "more guns in the hands of good people is stopping bad people with and without guns" I would have a database of such instances and constantly trumpet them to the public but I don't recall having seen anything like that. @DutyBard @rrb
(DIR) Post #AUHecYiO5GlNXS7y1g by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-03T18:51:01Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo "We should fight lightning before we do something about school shootings (which many other countries have none of)" is so violently american... It reminds me that this exists: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd-faq/ (check under "nuclear weapons")
(DIR) Post #AUMgz8zeXGsnhfnC7s by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T05:11:03Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven other countries have none sure. But they also have better mental health access... why not focus on something that is 2x more likely?
(DIR) Post #AUMprTqY1GhVeIxDcG by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T06:50:32Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo Because getting struck by lightning is something to defend against within your own agency. I won't even check the numbers here, there is simply no resource conflict: the state will not protect you from lightning strikes, you need to use your brain for that one. School shootings, on the other hand, are not a personal responsibility but need concerted action and regulations.
(DIR) Post #AUMx4BfVcELiiMnTZw by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T08:11:14Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven You cant do anything individually to protect against lightening. But the school can by ensuring there is a good investment in lightening protection infrastructure. So Id say kf course that is the school and states responsiblity.
(DIR) Post #AUMyLIUnaLFOlYVgMy by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T08:25:34Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo Ok, now this sounds extremely weird. Are you stipulating that more students die from lightning strikes that hit poorly earthed schools than from shootings? Just checked that the date of your original toot was not the first of april... i have no idea what you mean to say.
(DIR) Post #AUMyjXYJFy70PgiD0i by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T08:29:55Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven no im suggedting chikdren get struck by lightening at twice the rate they die in school shootings.Both are so astronomically rare that neither should be a.prioroty when it comes to concerns that need attention.
(DIR) Post #AUN0Ds3lfuNOepS9jc by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T08:46:38Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo I still don't get it. If they would get struck in school, it would have something (little, but not nothing) to do with resource allocation. But now you say it does not have anything to do with school, which would mean they just should not run around in thunderstorms, which again has no resource conflict with stopping school shootings. To the rarity: If an extremely destructive event is rare, it influences peoples well-being despite its rarity. Especially if it can be prevented but is not, since this decision is a signal. A bit like the utilitarian view on actions that have negative utility: the negative utility is one thing, but setting the example that the action is ok is what hurts the whole society. And that those shootings are preventable is evidenced by no other country having near as many. In conclusion: say it is not a problem, you tell people you think it is ok that the shootings happen.
(DIR) Post #AUN0RD5So67bdZbgh6 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T08:49:01Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven no you misread. It has to do with schools and can be prevented with better infrastucture investment... but as i said like school shootings its so astronimically rare its not where our attention should be in either case.
(DIR) Post #AUN0d6debmNp72Gto8 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T08:51:10Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven and yes the shootings are preventable. The key is preventing them without causing a huge increase in rape and other violent crimes as you do it... ban guns you replace one murdered kid with 10000 raped and/or murdered adult... focus on mental health access and you can solve it for real potentially.
(DIR) Post #AUN0dF4tEOvHHp4lN2 by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T08:51:12Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo Well then, you insist the numbers are important. I call BS on the numbers.
(DIR) Post #AUN0oNetfVi95JEGI4 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T08:53:13Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven the numbers i gave can eszily be proven/cited
(DIR) Post #AUN0s8TG4tqV8gZkzw by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T08:53:54Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo What would increase rape and violent crime?
(DIR) Post #AUN0x34Jai7RpeFdxo by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T08:54:46Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven banning or restricting guns, usually.
(DIR) Post #AUN2osgCX6FVCeCnUO by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T09:15:44Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo So adapting standards for gun control similar to countries with little to no school shootings that have no more (usually way less) rape and violent crime would cause rape and violent crime... You don't have a leg to stand on and you know it. Just admit you don't want to care about the consequences of having as many guns as you desire without pesky background checks. Honesty would be appreciated.
(DIR) Post #AUN3KUxKGyXqtLI9IW by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T09:21:24Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven Acyually other countries that mansged to grt ridnof school shootings did sonwith gun bans. In the vast majority of countries that did so there were usually huge spikes in rape and violent crimes following the ban... a prime example of what not to do.
(DIR) Post #AUN3zRtuXJRVI0Dlya by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T09:28:51Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo Cite the sources, please. I feel made fun of.
(DIR) Post #AUN46hz78QzFCS7HYu by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T09:30:07Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven i am on my phone so i cant look it up. Ive posted examples from 6 or more countries/ststes in the past. Ill find it when im at my computer.
(DIR) Post #AUN7cAkmWTsvGS6idE by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T10:09:25Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven in the meantime the evidence is so overwhelming it shoukd be obvious with even a casual glance.. look up rape, violent crime, and homicide rates for various countries and just mark the date gun bans were instituted. Attached is england and whales Worth noting a single graph means very little. People can come upnwith explanations that might explain any one graph.. but when you notoce thisnpattern is consistent across a great many countries and states that enact gun restrictions (jamaica, detroit, england, whales, almost everywhere) its hard to deny.
(DIR) Post #AUN8hTao0UQd5wXAwK by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T10:21:37Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo Wait, you speak about a peak... So if i understand correctly, you say that of there would be a hard time to be overcome, it is better to let people just shoot each other indefinitely instead of adressing the hard but limited time you would otherwise have? Well, i'm quite happy to not be physically close to you or any other americans. Dangerous bunch.
(DIR) Post #AUN8rFEmEaslT6t8jo by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T10:23:21Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven wait what... no... in saying we shouldnt look at killings and make a decision in an attempt to reduxe killing thst is know to in fact increase the number of killings instead... it seems straightforward to me. Dont do things that cause kore people to be killed, rsther than fewer, the only metric that matters.
(DIR) Post #AUNANYdPkbm6qiNsPI by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T10:40:27Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo It is straightforward. Enjoy your guns, i will make sure to stay far, far away.
(DIR) Post #AUNATEg4rb3cguKyQa by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T10:41:26Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven i am rarely living in the usa, i live mostly in europe and thr middle east. So chances are you might not be sonfar away.
(DIR) Post #AUNAbA0c6cECWmio6a by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T10:42:54Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo But you do not get to carry your guns in Europe, so it's fine. There are enough gun nuts here too, but as long as they don't get to carry i'm fine. I don't judge inclinations, actions are important.
(DIR) Post #AUNAoLgM1440UpXB5s by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T10:45:15Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven in much of europe you can, and at least i get a vote to change the laws too which is the important part in thisnconvo
(DIR) Post #AUNB9WBw8atVAiOvTM by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T10:49:07Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo Oops, you said the thing out loud 😆 Your claim was that going from little to no gun regulation would lead to a peak of violence. That you would want to prevent that peak. Now you say that you would vote to deregulate guns in countries that have already passed that peak. Sorry, better luck next time 😛
(DIR) Post #AUNBORc9RCTxJsmQFs by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T10:51:46Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven because it works both ways.. outlawing guns csuse violence tonspike, and generslly never improves to anpoint it isnbetter than before thr ban, so therenis no benefit...Similarly when you deregulate guns you will see a dip in violence. So there is a huge benefit fornderegulating guns to reduce violence.
(DIR) Post #AUNCncvWcCXHbAPiM4 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T11:07:31Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven you act like the peaks are done and over... after a few years obviously its harder to see the long term effects without more rigerous analysis, partly because over long periods other effects will overwhelm the violence rates.. but the positive effects on lowering violence from having access to guns. Or increaing it when you ban it, is certainly an ongoing net positive/negative, not a one off gain.
(DIR) Post #AUNPK8oOnl9rClLpJI by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T13:27:54Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo This is kind of disappointing. "the positive effects on lowering violence from having access to guns" - i am used to better reasoning from you.
(DIR) Post #AUNUGFOOtOLqE89YES by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T14:23:11Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven How ya figure. I think your applying less reaskn here than bias. I think it shoukd be obvious why a gun can protect a rape victim and is ultimately a power equalizer, especially considering how cops will likely not be on the scene for most crimes.Takes some pretty impressive mental gymnastics to ignore the idea of guns as a power-equalizing protection
(DIR) Post #AUNUQ1ttuTchHJYGSu by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T14:24:58Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo I figure the USA are showcasing how many people with guns use them often, even if just spooked instead of really threatened. The gymnastics are with you: take it a step further, let's give everyone a nuke. More power, more safety.
(DIR) Post #AUNUukckC6oiflAxhg by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T14:30:32Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo Thinking about how what you say could be true. We would need to arm every person that can be raped, and that is all people: men, women, trans people, children. They would all need to be trained well enough to draw fast enough to make a difference. For that last requirement... no lounging around, everyone needs to be on the lookout for attacks, all the time. Otherwise, they could be taken by surprise (by their now also armed attackers). I think i just described the iconic us mentality pretty well. Not a pleasant thing to everyone, some people want to relax sometimes.
(DIR) Post #AUNWKB6Ezksfymf3AG by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T14:46:18Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven No, we should give everyone the right to arm themselves and protect themselves while we do the impossible (and likely multigenerational) task of eliminating rape and violence... but until we do, people have a right to protect themselves.
(DIR) Post #AUNWyuIyLGNLlT2N4C by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T14:53:40Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven Thankfully the overwhelming majority of gun users are very safety conscious and good gun disciplin is often a focus.
(DIR) Post #AUNcYMDt2EVaFzNjhg by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T15:56:08Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo Who would you say people should protect themselfs from? While i still think those numbers are largely irrelevant to this whole discussion, i none the less perused the wikipedia entry on firearms related deaths per capita. Americans have found an answer to the question above: themselfs. So, while in a morbid and cynical fashion, the problem does solve itself.
(DIR) Post #AUNdzARP32tBUM3HCC by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T16:12:08Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven I thought we already addressed this... Talking about "firearm related death" in a discussion about banning firearms isthe intellectual equivelance of anti-vaxxers talking about "vaccine deaths" in a discussion about banning vaccines... It is intellectually dishonest and intentionally avoids the actual issue (if guns are a net goo dor a net bad)..Lets not forget when an antivaxxer says "If you would ban vaccines you would have 0 vaccine related deaths"... i mean yea, but its still an intellectually dishonest argument, true or not.
(DIR) Post #AUNecbRyYv7iYA7l2W by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T16:19:17Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo We adressed a lot of things, and i am disappointed. You failed to deliver any hint of how guns would save lifes, applying handwaving liberally. Please don't do more of that. It just makes me sad at this point.
(DIR) Post #AUNehNIebHXq6y2UbY by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T16:20:08Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven Every single point I made had literal evidence attached to it.. only thing left to do is show you the 5 other countries I mentioned i had data from rather than the one country i already shared. Incomming...
(DIR) Post #AUNevFehooBISOyFNI by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T16:22:39Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven More data, same trend.... funny that huh?
(DIR) Post #AUNfw11bnfSvKCbymO by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T16:34:01Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo And what exactly does that prove? First of all, american gun registration laws are well known to be a sham, forcing officials to rely on paper without proper resources etc. Then, you have a specific city in the midst of a lot of space where the same ban is not there, so lots of possibilities to get guns - just import, there is no policed border. Third, you cite ireland, not only in a kind of civil cold war with england perpetually around the time, but also with an order that lied to people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firearms_policy_in_the_Republic_of_Ireland#1972_Temporary_Custody_Order_and_Pistols_in_Irish_firearms_law All i see here is you cherry picking stuff that looks like it supports you, but is worthless in the end. How a gun could ever help solve another problem than "i wish this person was not alive", you do not address.
(DIR) Post #AUNjaY42gDhnEwlk0W by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T17:14:56Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven It proves exactly what you asked for.. evidence that across multiple countries and states we see huge rises in violent crimes that always seems to follow a ban in guns... it shows, rather strongly, that banning guns means people die... it proves something quite important to this conversation.
(DIR) Post #AUNkgxCAFx88sGBbxw by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T17:27:20Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo Evidence? I say YARRR!
(DIR) Post #AUNl8oNYd1OfdhnazY by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T17:32:18Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven You realize this exact example is what disproved **your** data not mine... you suggested correlation when you said "look at all the countries that ban guns where violence is less than the USA... what you were selling is exactly what this image is showing, yes its bad data science.Furthermore if you recall I **specifically** provided data that showed granger causality test, and NOT correlation as you depict here. It is exactly the sort of analysis we do to help combat the falacy your trying to claim... Man its ironic thats what you shared.
(DIR) Post #AUNlIHclGTLMwqQWga by admitsWrongIfProven@qoto.org
2023-04-06T17:34:04Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo I'm just happy you can't unleash weapons upon the country i'm in. This way, you can massage your data and i will not be shot.
(DIR) Post #AUNlUN3ws18LI3uJY8 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-06T17:36:12Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@admitsWrongIfProven Given the blatent ignorance to the data and a "my bias first, evidence second" I expect that response.
(DIR) Post #AUueAFiyfHyrjpkDpI by rrb@qoto.org
2023-04-02T01:38:09Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @freemo @DutyBard Reliable data is hard to come by. Johns Hopkins Center on Gun Violence:https://www.jhsph.edu/research/centers-and-institutes/johns-hopkins-center-for-gun-violence-prevention-and-policy/and Adam Winkler: https://law.ucla.edu/faculty/faculty-profiles/adam-winklerare the ones I would trust. The NRA got laws passed forbidding the federal government to keep statistics on gun violence. Which kind of makes the case that they are afraid of the data.
(DIR) Post #AUueAGkQrMjqudQtjU by pj@qoto.org
2023-04-02T05:48:46Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @freemo @DutyBardFrom everything (not much) that I was able to find on the topic, this one seems like a pretty decent, leveled accounting of the matter:https://www.thetrace.org/2022/06/defensive-gun-use-data-good-guys-with-guns/
(DIR) Post #AUueAHUs4hsxEf9z7I by rrb@qoto.org
2023-04-02T15:56:44Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @freemo @DutyBard Seems reasonable, although, I would posit that defensive gun use is pretty objective. If I see kids on my lawn and brandish a firearm to scare them, for me it may seem to be defensive gun use for them it is aggression.In any case, gun violence is now the #1 cause of death among young people in the USA. Gun deaths are higher in states with laxer laws. They are increasing over time. If you compare the USA with, for example, Australia which is culturally pretty similar, some conclusions seem pretty clear.
(DIR) Post #AUueAIGjCmANd5YCi8 by rrb@qoto.org
2023-04-22T14:15:05Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@pj @freemo @DutyBard Curious about reactions to the stats in this:ttps://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/22/opinion/american-shootings-guns.html
(DIR) Post #AUueAIi1ZI06zkK0G0 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-22T14:19:31Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj @DutyBard Paywall means i cant read.. but based kn the title it stands a good chance of beibg a bad faitb argument like i described.A gun in the house is more likely when you live in an area that is dangerous. Therefore even if the correlation exists it isnt in good faith to the intended argument which is causation
(DIR) Post #AUueK9PN0H7n2pIEVc by rrb@qoto.org
2023-04-22T14:21:24Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj @DutyBard Failure to read is not paywall, it was my inept cut and paste. Sorry:https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/22/opinion/american-shootings-guns.html
(DIR) Post #AUueTEzfbdgayRbfkm by thatguyoverthere@shitposter.club
2023-04-22T14:23:05.196950Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @freemo @pj @DutyBard nytimes does have a paywallhttps://archive.ph/fd7Cw
(DIR) Post #AUuedE1A5bg6qK46W8 by rrb@qoto.org
2023-04-22T14:24:51Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj @DutyBard Being more likely to have a gun if you live in a dangerous area would imply that white Republicans are more likely to live in bad areas:https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2017/06/22/the-demographics-of-gun-ownership/
(DIR) Post #AUuepyzlFpYY12UeeW by thatguyoverthere@shitposter.club
2023-04-22T14:27:14.010209Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj > In 2020, more than 4,300 young people died in America from firearms; the figure in the Netherlands for 2019 was two.Netherlands is a tiny little country and it says nothing about other forms of violence and accidents to see if this is an alarming anomaly.
(DIR) Post #AUufLNlDE9n9njf1mq by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-22T14:32:28Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @pj @rrb Equivelant argument: vaccine deaths were 1000x more likely in countries where vaccines are legal.... yea the argument makes no sense when you really look at it
(DIR) Post #AUufOjhA8C8shPMjLs by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-22T14:33:23Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj @DutyBard no it wouldnt, factor a effecting you having a gun doesnt mean factor b falls under factor a. There can and are many factors.
(DIR) Post #AUufm3g60ATdKpzIRc by rrb@qoto.org
2023-04-22T14:29:20Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @freemo @pj Those comments are quite reasonable. One could do it per capita. I would suspect that overall violent death still higher in USA. We have a declining life expectancy, which is an OECD anomaly.
(DIR) Post #AUufm4Epv0GZ4aF2au by thatguyoverthere@shitposter.club
2023-04-22T14:37:43.579426Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj I agree it's possible we have an overall higher violent death per capita, but it's not something that can be drawn from an opinion piece from the new york times.If we assume for a moment that we do have more violence (I don't think we are #1 in that area, but for the sake of argument), the question should be how to quell the violence not how to change it's form. Why do we seem to have a higher percentage of our population willing to become violent to get what they want. Is it a higher percentage or is there a lot of recidivism? If so is there any way to reduce that? If not what needs to change in our culture? It can't simply be access to guns the problem of violence starts before you grab a weapon.
(DIR) Post #AUufpfif1NcqBeuVXc by thatguyoverthere@shitposter.club
2023-04-22T14:38:22.953761Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @DutyBard @pj @rrb the beauty of tagging it "opinion" but portraying it as statistics
(DIR) Post #AUugF1PXVeNwha3QzA by rrb@qoto.org
2023-04-22T14:41:10Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @freemo @pj It is an opinion piece. He cites statistics to bolster his argument. Both are legit. He is not falsely claiming his opinions are facts, but opinions should be interpretations of facts.
(DIR) Post #AUugF21pDJ0gcJy0f2 by thatguyoverthere@shitposter.club
2023-04-22T14:42:57.506553Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj yeah no I get it. It's just when a writer cites statistics they should probably take care to make sure they are at least normalizing the data in some way (unless of course it helps support their opinion not to I guess)
(DIR) Post #AUugJ1srh1CTKLgM7s by rrb@qoto.org
2023-04-22T14:43:32Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj @DutyBard If most gun owners are white, Republican and rural, then I have trouble accepting that people with guns are mainly in dangerous areas, unless rural areas with white Republicans are more dangerous.
(DIR) Post #AUugbbAjEOORz3tNGi by thatguyoverthere@shitposter.club
2023-04-22T14:46:23.175853Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj An interesting side note. NYT headquarters was once a target of rioters, and they defended the building with privately owned automatic weapons.> At Newspaper Row, across from City Hall, Henry Raymond, owner and editor of The New York Times, averted the rioters with Gatling guns, one of which he manned. The mob, instead, attacked the headquarters of abolitionist Horace Greeley's New York Tribune until forced to flee by the Brooklyn Police. https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/harp/0801.html
(DIR) Post #AUuglcr3pUF66BTRy4 by rrb@qoto.org
2023-04-22T14:46:38Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @freemo @pj Stating the stats per capita would have been better and more effective.I see comparing the death rates of say auto fatalities, diseases, and gun violence in the same regions eye opening. Since it is in the same geographic location, that gets rid of a lot of extraneous factors.The declining life expectancy in the USA is shocking and worrisame.
(DIR) Post #AUugldjIZpcyoOqlVY by thatguyoverthere@shitposter.club
2023-04-22T14:48:49.900715Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj > The declining life expectancy in the USA is shocking and worrisame.agreed. I don't think it's a single variable problem though. I think a big part is actually diet related. Diabetes and heart disease are our number 1 killers if I'm not mistaken. There are other issues too such as environmental toxicity and lack of movement contributing to poor health.
(DIR) Post #AUuh2JPtLyUMjdiroW by thatguyoverthere@shitposter.club
2023-04-22T14:51:52.261770Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@DutyBard @freemo @pj @rrb I think if we looked at an opinion piece from the New York Times around that time their position was a little bit different. I seem to remember part of a quote from the owner at the time something about "judicious use of lead".
(DIR) Post #AUuhXkALwx7YfqRTgO by rrb@qoto.org
2023-04-22T14:51:37Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @freemo @pj Diet. Health care system. Poverty. Guns. Suicide. Alcoholism. Addiction. Overdoses. All play a part.Does not paint a pretty picture. No doubt there are many interacting factors.
(DIR) Post #AUuhXki1vk3kMICNAu by thatguyoverthere@shitposter.club
2023-04-22T14:57:30.227957Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj I don't think we have a great system, but it's better than giving government full control. It would be cool to get it out of the hands of pharma. Not sure government helps that happen. They seem to make it worse. Guns don't kill people without there being intent so again, no, but yes on the other points. Sadly we are a vice nation.
(DIR) Post #AUuhXmfycLbaSVFlFg by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-22T14:56:48Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj @DutyBard Actually being black is far more a factor for gun ownership than being white.That aside no, if race or party are factors, and so is crime, you cant assume most republicans are in high crime areas. You really need to brush up on your data science
(DIR) Post #AUuhiyurRvsFbdYRns by rrb@qoto.org
2023-04-22T14:55:43Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @freemo @pj Stats from 2017: https://www.healthline.com/health/leading-causes-of-death#liver-diseasesMore recent stats I saw seemed to be only medical data.
(DIR) Post #AUuhj0cV7ANMtGyoSm by thatguyoverthere@shitposter.club
2023-04-22T14:59:34.693545Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj I think it's sad we can't collect and process those kinds of statistics in more real time. The most recent numbers are always a few years behind current_year.
(DIR) Post #AUuiBUYJQ6LrpgbP7I by rrb@qoto.org
2023-04-22T15:03:14Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @freemo @pj I never mentioned government. I am actually a bit more concerned about fear mongering and marketing guns for self defense. I think that is inciting people to carry guns around in a state of panic. I know when I was growing up the men in my family really looked down on pistols as being inaccurate guns and not very useful. The idea of carrying around hidden pistols would have not been seen favorably at all.For example, you would not have road rage shootings if people were not driving around with pistols.
(DIR) Post #AUuiBVQu981KZ090D2 by thatguyoverthere@shitposter.club
2023-04-22T15:04:43.441090Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj I was talking about the health system not being in government hands
(DIR) Post #AUuiaF4c6jfL45VrRA by thatguyoverthere@shitposter.club
2023-04-22T15:09:12.226724Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj you behave as if making guns illegal makes them poof out of existence. Someone has to collect them. There are more guns (that we know of) then people.There are so many other forms of violence and no way to expect police to protect everyone so people must be allowed the opportunity to defend themselves against unwarranted violence. Firearms equalize the equation and give less capable would be victims an opportunity to defend against an attack they otherwise couldn't. Why take that away? Why are we going in circles?
(DIR) Post #AUuidcpIFeBnbNxaiG by rrb@qoto.org
2023-04-22T15:04:03Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @freemo @pj It was illegal for CDC to collect gun violence statistics at all until recently.
(DIR) Post #AUuiddddEUSI7VVnAu by thatguyoverthere@shitposter.club
2023-04-22T15:09:48.916214Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj and I still don't see how a disease center needs to collect violence statistics.
(DIR) Post #AUuieHr9hd2Yr299o8 by rrb@qoto.org
2023-04-22T15:09:55Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj @DutyBard I know base rates. but gun ownership is highly skewed by party. The Republican/Democrat divide is pretty close. So, without doing the algebra, if gun ownership is highly skewed towards high crime areas....The Venn diagram would have to be really weird for that to not be the case.
(DIR) Post #AUuilryVoSBstxCfWi by rrb@qoto.org
2023-04-22T15:06:09Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @freemo @pj Having lived in Europe and the USA, my main take away is that the US health insurance companies are abominations.
(DIR) Post #AUuilsVTpsYuYCczui by thatguyoverthere@shitposter.club
2023-04-22T15:11:17.951479Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj I think the need for insurance is an abomination. A doctor shouldn't be so ladden with debt that they can't charge reasonable prices for mundane and routine things . that alone would make exceptional cases more manageable without a need for insurance.
(DIR) Post #AUuiuO2gTHFwfnDSKm by thatguyoverthere@shitposter.club
2023-04-22T15:12:50.851226Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @DutyBard @freemo @pj I should be able to work with a local doctor and not need a national or international intervention.
(DIR) Post #AUujIkTUifuxCDNBlQ by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-22T15:17:13Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @thatguyoverthere @DutyBard @pj Having lived in both and gotten surgeries in both europe, the usa, and been treated extensively arou d the world i agree, the usa healthcare is an abomination, and the quality of care outside of the usa is also an abomination just in didferent ways.
(DIR) Post #AUujQ8FUj4r2xQLTWq by AshChapelsGhost@poa.st
2023-04-22T15:18:34.671641Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @thatguyoverthere @freemo @pj Probably because violence isn't a disease. And wtf is 'gun violence' and how is it difference from 'pushed out of window violence', 'beaten with a bowling trophy violence' or Britain's favorite 'hacked to death with a machete violence'?
(DIR) Post #AUukRZovnj7WiGAoIi by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-22T15:29:59Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj @DutyBard You can have it be highly skewed for violent areas and highly skewed for republican areas while still allowing republican areas to be rich (though thatisnt necceseraly reality).So lets look at real numbers. 36% of republicans make under 15k a year. Similarly 63% of democrats are under 15k.So roughly speaking 1/3 of poor high crime areas (you are assuming this is the same but ok) is republican while 2/3 democrat. Oversimplification but sure.So now why cant the democrat areas have 10% .ore guns than a low crim democrat area, and republican area the same, also have 10% more.. how is this invalidated just because republican areas will have more guns since they are republican and in high crime at the same time, so they have 2 factors while the deocrat areas have one factor...Your logic is making no sense.
(DIR) Post #AUvX6VWzRubd5AMfNw by rrb@qoto.org
2023-04-23T00:35:13Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@freemo @pj @DutyBard Similar questions as previous opinion, different opinions. I do not agree with his conclusions, since peer nations with lower mortality have more regulations. He has the questions and factors right, I thinkhttps://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/04/america-mortality-rate-guns-health/673799/
(DIR) Post #AUw3O5pExS436TKWx6 by freemo@qoto.org
2023-04-23T06:36:31Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@rrb @pj @DutyBard Why woukd data about peer nations and correlations have any effect on your opinion? We know for a fact correlation has no relevance to causation, and tests that show causation contradict you.