Post ARfc1V4Ts2PgB6CwAC by pkrugman@mastodon.online
 (DIR) More posts by pkrugman@mastodon.online
 (DIR) Post #ARfc1TIaScVagGnAsC by pkrugman@mastodon.online
       2023-01-15T12:20:58Z
       
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       We're coming up on the 2nd anniversary of Biden's inauguration, and I have a few (not very original) thoughts about his economic policy 1/
       
 (DIR) Post #ARfc1V4Ts2PgB6CwAC by pkrugman@mastodon.online
       2023-01-15T12:23:49Z
       
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       The opening salvo was the American Rescue Plan, which came in for immense criticism as "the most irresponsible fiscal policy in 50 years". Soaring inflation seemed to vindicate the critics 2/
       
 (DIR) Post #ARfc1Wl3bE43PR8SAK by pkrugman@mastodon.online
       2023-01-15T12:25:49Z
       
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       But now inflation seems to be coming down as fast as it went up. The new Team Transitory warns that this improvement won't last — but it's getting harder to make that case 3/
       
 (DIR) Post #ARfc1YVB7EYEolinh2 by pkrugman@mastodon.online
       2023-01-15T12:27:29Z
       
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       Here's "supercore" inflation — ex food, energy, shelter (which we know is very lagged) and used cars 4/
       
 (DIR) Post #ARfc1a03XuqRSpAySe by pkrugman@mastodon.online
       2023-01-15T12:28:55Z
       
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       And here's average hourly earnings, skipping the period when pandemic compositional effects caused huge distortions 5/
       
 (DIR) Post #ARfc1bYTlPySHsHykq by pkrugman@mastodon.online
       2023-01-15T12:31:37Z
       
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       Meanwhile, we seem to have avoided the "scarring" many feared, with the labor market recovering to pre-crisis levels far faster than it did after the financial crisis 6/
       
 (DIR) Post #ARfc1d8fsKWNCQEOoK by pkrugman@mastodon.online
       2023-01-15T12:34:38Z
       
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       Maybe new data will make the picture look worse in a few months. But right now it looks as if we achieved rapid recovery at the cost of maybe 20 months of elevated inflation. 7/
       
 (DIR) Post #ARfc1ebmPbOfkyr9oe by pkrugman@mastodon.online
       2023-01-15T12:35:48Z
       
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       Obviously we've had problems, and would do things differently with the benefit of hindsight. But does this outcome really look like a catastrophe? 8/