Posts by pkrugman@mastodon.online
(DIR) Post #ARfc1Wl3bE43PR8SAK by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-01-15T12:25:49Z
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But now inflation seems to be coming down as fast as it went up. The new Team Transitory warns that this improvement won't last — but it's getting harder to make that case 3/
(DIR) Post #ARfc1YVB7EYEolinh2 by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-01-15T12:27:29Z
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Here's "supercore" inflation — ex food, energy, shelter (which we know is very lagged) and used cars 4/
(DIR) Post #ARfc1a03XuqRSpAySe by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-01-15T12:28:55Z
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And here's average hourly earnings, skipping the period when pandemic compositional effects caused huge distortions 5/
(DIR) Post #ARfc1bYTlPySHsHykq by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-01-15T12:31:37Z
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Meanwhile, we seem to have avoided the "scarring" many feared, with the labor market recovering to pre-crisis levels far faster than it did after the financial crisis 6/
(DIR) Post #ARfc1d8fsKWNCQEOoK by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-01-15T12:34:38Z
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Maybe new data will make the picture look worse in a few months. But right now it looks as if we achieved rapid recovery at the cost of maybe 20 months of elevated inflation. 7/
(DIR) Post #ARfc1ebmPbOfkyr9oe by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-01-15T12:35:48Z
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Obviously we've had problems, and would do things differently with the benefit of hindsight. But does this outcome really look like a catastrophe? 8/
(DIR) Post #ARnnRP9JAHYq6HhRuC by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-01-19T13:09:59Z
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I haven't seen a lot of attention to the latest Beige Book, but it does seem to confirm other narratives, especially about moderating inflation 1/ https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202301.htm
(DIR) Post #ARnnRPy07o6udVPvv6 by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-01-19T13:14:58Z
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Prices moderating everywhere; wage growth still elevated but moderating in 5 districts. Goes along with BLS, Atlanta Fed, Indeed etc. 2/
(DIR) Post #ARnnRQdTdbHsi8p3ZI by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-01-19T13:16:33Z
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I was curious to see how the fire-and-brimstone inflation crowd would react to improving data. To my surprise and slight disappointment, many of them seem to be admitting that a soft landing is possible 3/
(DIR) Post #ARohU8ES75C7w1z11M by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-01-19T22:21:02Z
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Making the debt ceiling story as simple as I can. But it's difficult to get people to understand something when their political posturing depends on not understanding it https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/19/opinion/columnists/democrats-debt-ceiling.html
(DIR) Post #ASaKjay1iT2hBKWpIu by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-01-24T17:20:37Z
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Olivier and I are on the same page. Once inflation is tamed — which seems to be happening surprisingly fast — we'll be back in an era of low rates and excess savings https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/secular-stagnation-not-over
(DIR) Post #ASaLdNSl70JBW1VCIS by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-01-21T13:00:58Z
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We'll get more data in the weeks ahead, but at this point the burden of proof lies on anyone claiming that we had more than a, well, transitory inflation spike that's mostly behind us 6/
(DIR) Post #AURoUs20BPmnLMmw2S by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-04-08T16:24:30Z
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I've been neglecting this account. Testing whether I can use it to post figures
(DIR) Post #AXYVRrk0ffeNbhaQnA by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-07-10T10:30:44Z
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What's happened to labor force participation
(DIR) Post #AaV8QLh8QJHIJOnuV6 by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-10-05T11:18:09Z
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Utility post; not gonna give Musk content when I can help it. Three-year inflation rates since Reagan
(DIR) Post #AagvRmioFj8vDnj7Am by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-10-12T10:24:19Z
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Utility post: I'm working on Claudia Goldin, and trying to put the economic important of rising female labor force participation in context. Between 1970 and 2000 the female LPR rose about 17 points, so an increase in overall labor supply of ~8 percent 1/
(DIR) Post #AagvRouw5c201zPpLs by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-10-12T10:26:40Z
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Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300002Given women's lower hours and earnings, a growth-accounting estimate would put the resulting rise in potential GDP ~ 5 percent, more if you consider capital endogenous 2/
(DIR) Post #AagvRqkNHqlthoUQAS by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-10-12T10:28:32Z
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Compare with globalization; a while back I did a back-of-the-envelope on the gains from hyperglobalization, putting them at around 5 percent https://archive.nytimes.com/krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/01/the-gains-from-hyperglobalization-wonkish/3/
(DIR) Post #AagvRvEIcX5LbmWNMm by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-10-12T10:30:18Z
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Squishy numbers all around, but the point is that even given narrow concerns about potential GDP the rise in women's work was comparable to the much-hyped rise in globalization 4/
(DIR) Post #Ab3ydBhgK5zoxWHmk4 by pkrugman@mastodon.online
2023-10-23T11:24:09Z
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Another utility post: Truflation, a crypto-backed site that purports to offer an improved measure of inflation, doesn't offer a permalink to its estimate. But here's what it looks like