Post ANzghTa3VfvxynSSm0 by Doomed_Daniel@mastodon.technology
(DIR) More posts by Doomed_Daniel@mastodon.technology
(DIR) Post #ANzQxsb2fdPEvpif6u by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2022-09-27T12:40:35Z
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Someone broke NordStream 2 yesterday and NordStream 1 today. Who do you think it was? What's your guess?
(DIR) Post #ANzgA9pBwOSb9SeNX6 by Doomed_Daniel@mastodon.technology
2022-09-27T15:30:48Z
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@wolf480pl not sure speculating about this is helpful in any way - AFAIK no one knows anything yet, so it could've been basically anyone or anything.IMO it's not a good idea to start speculating (and thus implicitly blaming)
(DIR) Post #ANzgF6KINJ9zkXYXUu by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2022-09-27T15:31:48Z
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@Doomed_Daniel blaming? it's good news, RF lost a means of exerting pressure on Germany...
(DIR) Post #ANzghTa3VfvxynSSm0 by Doomed_Daniel@mastodon.technology
2022-09-27T15:36:50Z
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@wolf480pl IIRC the German government wasn't really expecting to get russian gas this winter, and AFAIK they didn't really get any for weeks at least, due to different bullshit reasons from Putin.But even if it's true, on the downside lots of climate-damaging gas has been released into the atmosphere, and gas prices (and thus everything tied to it, like heating and almost all industries) were bad enough even before this.
(DIR) Post #ANzh5lcc5IoosqElqS by Doomed_Daniel@mastodon.technology
2022-09-27T15:39:36Z
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@wolf480pl There *is* pressure from some right-wing groups to lift sanctions "so we don't have to freeze in the winter", but now they could direct their hate against whoever they think is responsible for this, so even on that axis things might get worse
(DIR) Post #ANzh5m7oDJlwRapgTA by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2022-09-27T15:41:16Z
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@Doomed_Daniel I saw some charts of gas prices falling for the last couple weeks but the only ones I could find right now are from US so idk....
(DIR) Post #ANzhOoR5qUKj76vkLw by Doomed_Daniel@mastodon.technology
2022-09-27T15:44:40Z
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@wolf480pl Yeah they did fall a bit even here, but just earlier today I saw an article that the prices for heating with oil and gas have doubled since 2020, and will most likely continue to rise (and those calculations were from before the pipelines "broke")
(DIR) Post #ANzv3rv36ByfC3qijQ by takloufer@fosstodon.org
2022-09-27T18:17:44Z
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@wolf480pl who's behavior has been completely outside int. norms?We'll see, but I think its again Russia, trying to create some upwards pressure on falling gas prices.And threatening otr n. sea infrastructureSabotage seems to be the main scenario even officially, any environmentally motivated actor would be doing something highly counterproductive, w the massive CH4 leak. And any sane actor is risking a lot if they're caughtRussia otoh will just spin it, like it does w everything
(DIR) Post #ANzvQICq2s7Z5krYRM by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2022-09-27T18:21:53Z
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@takloufer I've seen arguments that if Russia was to damage it, it'd do it on land, such that it can easily fix it when convenient. But if the goal wasn't to disable the pipeline, and instead to demonstrate the capability of striking at the baltic seabed, that'd kinda make sense...
(DIR) Post #ANzvSjEUX2AHUbnVTs by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2022-09-27T18:22:21Z
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@takloufer It also means they lose a card from their hand - they can't promise to Germany that they will resume gas delivery if Germany does sth for them - but it'd also allow them to blame it on some other country, which they couldn't if they damaged the pipe on land.
(DIR) Post #ANzxaStfLsmz3KsD1U by takloufer@fosstodon.org
2022-09-27T18:46:06Z
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@wolf480pl yeah, I don't think they have any intention of exporting that gas to w. europe again, so credibly not being able to turn it back on may not be such a lossI was reading a publication on the economic consequences of the war, and one of the articles, by some Mike Harrison, uni Warwick, that argues against sanctions on Ru energy exports, notes for eg how bizzare it is that both sides appear to treat these exports and their end as their own weapon in this war.
(DIR) Post #AO0DkBJbAppagceruy by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2022-09-27T21:47:05Z
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@takloufer As far as I understand, Russia came out of its post-soviet-dissolution crisis by increasing exports of oil and gas. But buying gas from Russia would give it money... what is Russia gonna do with that? Admire the account balance?Now if you paid for gas with rubles (against EU sanctions), that would provide Russia with resources. Because to get rubles you had to sell them goods.But if you buy Russian gas for USD or EUR, that should in theory give Russia more-or-less nothing.1/
(DIR) Post #AO0DvfgwZhYy5D3Z9k by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2022-09-27T21:49:14Z
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@takloufer However, here's the catch:If you buy gas from Russia, you could be dependent on gas from Russia. If you are dependent on gas from Russia, then Russia can make you suffer by closing the valve.OTOH if you don't buy gas from Russia, it means you buy gas from elsewhere, and no amount of valve turning by Russia can exert pressure on you.
(DIR) Post #AO0EHI2ZBr416JTktk by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2022-09-27T21:53:10Z
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@takloufer that's just my reasoning tho, I'm no expert, and I'd happily read an argument to the contrary