Post 9uCMve2FalgpqhZDOa by rysiek@mastodon.social
(DIR) More posts by rysiek@mastodon.social
(DIR) Post #9t2M283iXY1vtEzZ6e by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T16:33:06Z
3 likes, 1 repeats
After talking to @smarimc and thinking about it a bit, one metric importance became obvious: days-to-herd-immunity.I'll explain in a sec; but first, let's make one thing clear: basically, we're all getting COVID-19 sooner or later. The fight is now about how many people get it *simultaneously*, or more importantly: how many people need to be simultaneously hospitalized.Here's a decent explanation: https://medium.com/@ariadnelabs/social-distancing-this-is-not-a-snow-day-ac21d7fa78b4So it's all about slowing down the spread. How much?
(DIR) Post #9t2NVEaHSU1KTnfK08 by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T16:41:37Z
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Well, as mentioned by a lot of different sources, we need to slow it down such that the peak of infections is still something we can handle in the healthcare systems.And the peak can be expected not that much sooner than when herd immunity kicks in. Let's say herd immunity kicks in at ~70-75% of population.Well, now we have some numbers to work with!
(DIR) Post #9t2NVF6BXrXc4kanjM by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T16:50:48Z
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@rysiek tfw. we'll want herd immunity to appear as late as possible
(DIR) Post #9t2Nrz6dAjh98Re4BM by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T16:54:55Z
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@wolf480pl exactly.
(DIR) Post #9t2Nv2tPY80zkSvBxI by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T16:55:29Z
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@rysiek counterintuitive AF
(DIR) Post #9t2OTALYLIDoiDM1xI by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T16:54:50Z
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The data we need is: population of the country, current number of cases, and the estimated rate of new cases.For #Iceland that's 364260 (population), 161 (current number of cases), 1.17 (rate of infection).Herd immunity at 75% is 273195 people (infected, and those who already recovered). How long will it take?Well, solve for x!161*1.17^x = 2731951.17^x = 273195/1611.17^x ~= 1697x=ln(1697)/ln(1.17) ~= 47 days
(DIR) Post #9t2OrYArP64ZYtyqCu by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T17:02:28Z
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That also roughly means that the last day before herd immunity kicks in we can expect ~40.000 new infections. On that single day.Now, if we lower the infection rate to 1.09, that we get 86 days to deal with it ( đśď¸ ), and the last day we get ~20.000 cases. Way more manageable.This is all back-of-a-napkin math, obviously, there's a crap ton of variables that are not accounted for, plus it kinda makes most sense for isolated places like Iceland.Still, eye-opening for me.
(DIR) Post #9t2OrYjxIc95JkOruS by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T17:06:03Z
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@rysiek is the number of cases number of infected people, or number of confirmed cases?
(DIR) Post #9t2OthHAXD94MyxG0O by ilja@ilja.space
2020-03-15T17:06:26.450288Z
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@rysiek I guess the infection rate should also drop while the immunity is growing? With it being 1.17 now and around 1 or less at 70%-75%?
(DIR) Post #9t2OzavB4f1cOlTrXc by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T17:07:31Z
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@wolf480pl number of all confirmed cases to date.
(DIR) Post #9t2P66528fMem2BvM0 by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T17:08:23Z
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@ilja one can hope. but it might also go up, since herd immunity is still not there and there are way way more people and locations that are infected. So it becomes easier to catch COVID.
(DIR) Post #9t2P95UcmKl5oyaTQW by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T17:09:13Z
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@rysiek I think we should adjust for asymptomatic infections.Eg. if 50% of infected people are asymptomatic, we reach herd immunity when all-confirmed-cases-so-far reaches ~35% of population.
(DIR) Post #9t2PVwcluyESyaIUM4 by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T17:13:21Z
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@wolf480pl sure, but we also reach peak infections then. Question is: when we're saying that 15% of cases need hospital care and 5% of cases need critical care, is that of all cases or just symptomatic?If all, that herd immunity at 35% of population having been symptomatic doesn't save the healthcare system...
(DIR) Post #9t2Pe37ddvCbRgbEA4 by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T17:14:48Z
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@rysiek AFAIK we don't know how many asymptomatic cases there are, so I'd expect all relative numbers like hospitalization rate or mortality rate to be relative to the number of confirmed cases.
(DIR) Post #9t2Qi7OFogGTnLsKjA by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T17:22:23Z
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Few more takeaways from this:1. 20k new cases on the idealized "day before herd immunity kicks in" still means that people who were infected before continue to need care. And 20k cases Ă 15% is 3k new patients needing hospital beds.2. So... it would be better to spread it even further. If we go down to an infection rate of 1.04 we get peak at 10k cases, 1.5k new hospital patients. But that also means spreading it over 189 days!3. Get used to it. It will take a long while.
(DIR) Post #9t2Qi7hOfVZqkipcZ6 by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T17:26:44Z
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@rysiekStretch it by 2x once more and you may be outraced by a vaccine
(DIR) Post #9t2Qz1JtdfTxtJteQy by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T17:29:48Z
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@rysiekBtw. is China past its peak?
(DIR) Post #9t2RFfjn8PONsTwu4e by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T17:32:49Z
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@wolf480pl probably not.
(DIR) Post #9t2RO4sfXL3wAt6qkC by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T17:34:21Z
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@rysiekSo the numbers on wikipedia are inaccurate?
(DIR) Post #9t2Sinab7ZAYa76LA0 by steko@octodon.social
2020-03-15T17:15:14Z
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@rysiek an Italian virologist today said that the whole 'herd immunity by getting the virus' is a pile of bullshit, and according to him you cannot speak of herd immunity without a vaccine. On top of that, the immune part of population needs to be much higher, like 95%. Let me get you a link
(DIR) Post #9t2Sio3JOo8c1AXGuu by emptyfortress@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T17:25:23Z
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@steko @rysiek yeah, I don't have hard data on this but I know I read articles about reinfections (doctors and supposedly cured patients) at least in Japan so I'm not really sure about the herd immunity thingunless there's a vaccine of course, that would be ideal
(DIR) Post #9t2SioYVWp5jZv8BXc by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T17:49:15Z
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@emptyfortress @steko @rysiek if your immune system doesn't learn to produce antibodies after defeating the real virus, why would it learn to produce antibodies after defeating a vaccine?
(DIR) Post #9t2Tl49mauXMUwCh7Y by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T18:00:54Z
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@wolf480pl well, again, not a healthcare professional here. But, 80k cumulative cases is nowhere near herd immunity. And containing the virus outside of China is not really feasible, methinks.So, sooner or later they will start getting more cases. If I were a betting man, my money would be on China preparing the capacity and procedures to gradually get herd immunity in place later.
(DIR) Post #9t2Tr2VtcK4b8fOZxQ by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T18:01:59Z
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@wolf480pl @emptyfortress @steko well I guess a vaccine could potentially be made more likely to cause the body to produce antibodies?
(DIR) Post #9t2U5KXzMgC17jBlE8 by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T18:04:34Z
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@rysiek ok, but my questions are:- are the numbers accurate? did they really stop at 80k confirmed cases? are they still testing?- if so, how do you explain the numbers?
(DIR) Post #9t2UFPaPU6UfeE81Gy by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T18:06:23Z
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@wolf480pl I don't think I can explain the data. If they did stop at ~80k cases, good on them, but probably ended up using some serious authoritarian muscle.
(DIR) Post #9t2UOCGOO7JKvxxEEi by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T18:07:58Z
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@rysiek or 99.999% of cases are asymptomatic
(DIR) Post #9t2XnSg8nEVewmjjpQ by shellkr@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T18:46:09Z
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@rysiek @smarimc I am not a believer of herd immunity.. as viruses mutate and so will covid-19.What we need is #flattenthecurve and make sure hospitals have the equipment and personell they need.
(DIR) Post #9t2YcEjsNdz4TyhAhc by shellkr@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T18:55:20Z
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@wolf480pl @emptyfortress @steko @rysiek Vaccines are often dead or inactivated viruses which makes the immune system recognize it early. A too strong vaccine can make you sick and a too weak will not protect.
(DIR) Post #9t2YizXzGGR7ORM5qK by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T18:56:33Z
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@shellkr @emptyfortress @steko @rysiek ok, but if you get the real virus, and your immune system recognizes it late, but later defeats it, it has to make antibodies to do it, right?
(DIR) Post #9t2aG9e0qCvuDfYDMO by shellkr@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T19:13:45Z
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@wolf480pl @emptyfortress @steko @rysiek Sure, that is the common thing... but not if it mutate. Like with the Flu influenza.. you can catch it every year (with different strains) if unlucky.Just for the record.. I am not an expert I just share what I know.
(DIR) Post #9t2apgNX7zjdsVmf1k by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T19:20:09Z
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@shellkr @emptyfortress @steko @rysiek I heard that with vaccines you get some degree of choice about which protein you want antibodies against.I suppose with natural immune reaction, you get antibodies against some of the viruses' proteins, but if it mutates to not have those, you're vulnerable again.And if you make a vaccine you could probably choose a protein that it'll be hard for the virus to get rid of and still be dangerous.Just speculation tho, ask a virologist.
(DIR) Post #9t2bFGUS0Fdr7FDa08 by shellkr@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T19:24:47Z
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@wolf480pl @emptyfortress @steko @rysiek Yes, exactly.. There are broad spectrum vaccines e.t.c.. too.
(DIR) Post #9t2hVvM8Qq0QDXeh2e by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T20:35:02Z
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@wolf480pl but you would still get other people getting infected from the asymptomatic cases.
(DIR) Post #9t2iAUgeUXmpNTb5gu by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T20:42:21Z
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@shellkr @smarimc I have some faith in human immune system. And if the immune system is able to build up immunity against SARS-CoV-2, then given enough people have that immunity, you automatically get herd immunity.Herd immunity is basically statistics: making it unlikely enough that an infected individual bumps into another person who does not have the immunity yet.
(DIR) Post #9t2kH5nhcHWQ86AYKG by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T21:05:58Z
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@rysiekYes, but 99.999% of them would be asymptomatic.It's all linear.
(DIR) Post #9t2ksNUqmoBxj988vY by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T21:12:42Z
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@wolf480pl fair. In such a case herd immunity would get there sooner, yeah.
(DIR) Post #9t2l2pUvX7HdT29M0m by shellkr@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T21:14:36Z
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@rysiek @smarimc Yes, I am aware of that... but still don't believe it to be a good strategy. We do not want our weaker groups to risk an infection. We want a vaccine and then get herd immunity through that.
(DIR) Post #9t2lQ7WyeWvI3YDNgW by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T21:18:48Z
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@shellkr @smarimc oh, completely agreed. But, that would mean we need to be in lockdown and quarantine, globally, until a vaccine is ready. And that's not going to happen sooner than 6mo. Probably later even.
(DIR) Post #9t2mAYvf7SJuLouFMm by shellkr@mstdn.io
2020-03-15T21:27:13Z
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@rysiek @smarimc Yes, and that is what I think we need to do. Not a full lockdown but one with social separation.Not that I personally will be affected though.. too young.
(DIR) Post #9t3vRMHvKbAgGJ0Kvo by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-15T17:31:52Z
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Also, disclaimer:1. This is all very naive, back-of-a-napkin math. Take it with a grain (or better yet, a whole spoon) of salt, do your own analysis.2. I am not a healthcare professional and all of this can just as well be complete bullshit (if you know it is bullshit, let me know, eager to learn!).3. The numbers are for Iceland. Plug in your own numbers. Here's my spreadsheet:https://git.rys.io/rysiek/covid/blob/master/covid.ods
(DIR) Post #9t3vRMdC3WBXKGxK5I by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-16T10:22:37Z
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I think I know where the "I don't believe in herd immunity" stuff was coming from. Consider:https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19What the UK gov't is doing is saying "we don't need all the protective measures because we want herd immunity as soon as possible". That's crap for all the reasons mentioned in the link.My point: if we're lucky we can try to to slow infections down enough that the healthcare system can cope, and *hope* herd immunity kicks in; and here are the relevant numbers.
(DIR) Post #9t3vRMwKuLUuHdubvE by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-16T10:45:46Z
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@rysiek Now look at the numbers from China - they stopped at 80k confirmed cases. That means either:- they're lying / stopped testing - you're right, also we lose- they contained the epidemic - UK is right- 99.999% cases were asymptomatic, they have herd immunity already - you're right, also we win
(DIR) Post #9t3vm8poXtaUcOlaZk by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-16T10:49:33Z
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@wolf480pl again, UK gov clearly assumes pandemic is not containable. Not sure what's going on in China, but good on them. I do hope I'm wrong and that it's possible to contain SARS-CoV-2, but data from Italy and Spain does not bring me much hope of that.
(DIR) Post #9tHQMVLIeD7UES9Yum by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-22T22:55:18Z
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Okay, I started making a thing, because I had too much time on my hands (quarantine, yay!), and because I was annoyed about not having seen a decent place to get up-to-date stats on COVID-19 in different places:https://rys.io/covid/It pulls the data from Wikipedia and applies to it the math I mentioned earlier in the thread.Next steps are to implement:1. comparisons between 2-3 countries2. graphs similar to this one but updated with fresh data:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Epidemic_curve_update_18_march_20.png
(DIR) Post #9tHQzMsa307vHHFek4 by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-22T23:10:32Z
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@rysiekI predict peak in Poland in 8 days
(DIR) Post #9tHtKXgPs6bpaCRldg by Shufei@mastodon.social
2020-03-22T23:11:56Z
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@rysiek When youâve a mome, could you please tweak the Taiwan page? Itâs showing no data, but I was pretty sure there is..l. Ta.
(DIR) Post #9tHtKYs9RxafGsweZM by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T01:03:36Z
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@Shufei so, the reason why it doesn't work is because the "2019-20 coronavirus pandemic data/Taiwan medical cases chart" does not exist.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic_data/Taiwan_medical_cases_chartNote how the Polish pandemic Wikipedia page has that template, and Taiwanese does not:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Polandhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_TaiwanNow, if someone were to create that template in Wikipedia, it would start working - as I can see I am getting Taiwan population data just fine.
(DIR) Post #9tHtKZJnn9hyedsjfU by Shufei@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T03:22:36Z
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@rysiek Lordy, this comes down to the strait politics, natch. đ¤Śđ˝ââď¸Thanks, lemme dig up my wiki account out of the crypt and Iâll give it a looksee. Maybe I can sneak one in past the ranting political uncles and aunties.
(DIR) Post #9tJ0d8lNnC5vRyRIlE by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T10:11:59Z
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@Shufei thanks! Let me know when you do, very curious if it Just Worksâ˘.Is it really that political, though? I mean the data is already there on the Taiwan pandemic wiki page, it's just a question of putting it in a more standard format, like most of the other areas?Anyway, good luck!
(DIR) Post #9tJ0d9AuGIVkj8NgXo by Shufei@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T16:59:49Z
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@rysiek Everything is political when it comes to (whispers) âthe island formerly known as Formosa which may or may not be a province of China, which may or may not equal the PRC or some other larger quasi sociopolitical arrangement.â Seriously, even saying âTaiwanâ and listing it as a country can attract the PRC cyber flies, so itâs best to label any list it contains as âcountry/regionâ. Less important in English, natch, but like FYROM these people do get ridiculous about it.
(DIR) Post #9tMaFM9qOEbNPCFJke by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-23T22:25:42Z
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It is now possible to: - link directly to a particular infection site data: https://rys.io/covid/#iceland - display data for several (as many as you like, I guess) infection sites side-by-side.There are still bugs, and the styling is awkward right now. But perhaps it's useful.
(DIR) Post #9tMaFMV779cETACIu8 by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-24T14:04:38Z
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Added the ability to link directly to data for a number of countries simultaneously, for example:https://rys.io/covid/#iceland,united-states,turkey
(DIR) Post #9tMaFMoFxyvbQX9ak4 by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-24T21:13:29Z
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Added graphs. These are still buggy (don't try to display more than 6 countries đ ), and the x axis is hardcoded, but I feel they're already kinda useful:https://rys.io/covid/#iceland,united-states,turkeyFun fact, Sweden for some reason is missing a day of data:https://rys.io/covid/#swedenNeed to look at the data I guess. :blobcatcoffee:
(DIR) Post #9tMaFNBIaJMMZzvzeq by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-25T10:47:49Z
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@rysiek btw. Check Republic uses wrong wikipedia page
(DIR) Post #9tMelI3Datvvked62a by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-25T11:38:25Z
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@wolf480pl oh boy, thanks for the heads-up! Fixed.
(DIR) Post #9tMfITIEohBIAuTdXE by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-25T11:44:23Z
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@rysiek thanks!Looking at the graphs, Poland and Czechia are very similar except Czechia is 4 days ahead of as, and we have 4x more citizens.Also, the graphs of UK and France look pretty scary compared to ours
(DIR) Post #9tMisCKheSNbrSMDRI by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-25T12:24:29Z
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@wolf480pl if you want to see something scary, look at Turkey.
(DIR) Post #9tMkBaiFKfSOviBGhE by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-25T12:39:12Z
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@rysiekNo it's not. Turkey's getting flatter, like Poland. UK isn't.
(DIR) Post #9tMkgiiJdOHiip3Zku by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-25T12:44:50Z
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@rysiek also, Russia
(DIR) Post #9tRp04zjZvz4GbljSi by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-26T20:44:25Z
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A bunch of fixes in. In the meantime, someone on #Wikipedia just decided to completely change the way data is recorded for Mainland China, which screws up my data retrieval completely.Come on, I've been fixing and cleaning Mainland China data for the last 5 days, give me a break!
(DIR) Post #9tRp07or4q431jhaQC by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-26T22:04:41Z
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Compare the graph to the video:https://rys.io/covid/#china,united-states,italyTo be absolutely clear, this is not funny. This is fucking scary.
(DIR) Post #9tRp0A2ko8N1vQDiMa by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-27T15:34:09Z
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Added the ability to choose between logarithmic (default) and linear scales:https://rys.io/covid/#china,united-states,italy
(DIR) Post #9tRp0BdItjCWr4KPyK by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-27T23:03:36Z
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You can now choose between cumulative and new cases chart: https://rys.io/covid/#china,united-states,italyThese both work with the logarithmic and linear scale choice, of course.
(DIR) Post #9tTfo5EGN3qmFOgo7s by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-28T13:20:46Z
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It is now possible to anchor the chart on the day of the first, tenth, hundredth, and thousandth case:https://rys.io/covid/#italyStarting on the tenth case day is also now the default.Thank you for suggestions., @etam and @dredmorbius
(DIR) Post #9tTfo5XPDtA9Cle5xo by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-28T20:49:30Z
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Made it possible to remove infection sites. Works both using the [-] button, and directly from the URL hash:https://rys.io/covid/#italy,china,united-statesAlso fixed: population data is now hard-coded, so one fewer round-trip to Wikipedia.Also, I added a simple test routine, and so I know that ~60 infection sites do not get proper data when fetching from Wikipedia. I'll try to fix them, or consider switching to a better source. Ideas for the latter welcome!
(DIR) Post #9tTfo5niFGCs1LH7Ng by CSB@noagendasocial.com
2020-03-28T20:53:08Z
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@rysiek what tech is this website using server side?
(DIR) Post #9tTkayMt4GrkyVI6bI by shellkr@mstdn.io
2020-03-28T21:46:47Z
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@rysiek Perhaps.. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data
(DIR) Post #9tTkfIZvrsXeoZSJ8q by shellkr@mstdn.io
2020-03-28T21:47:34Z
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@rysiek Perhaps.. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data or https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide
(DIR) Post #9tTpFJI36ECFGNWAVc by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-28T22:38:52Z
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@shellkr if only the data was in some sane format that can be reasonably processed by client-side JS.
(DIR) Post #9tTqIdHNKw6456Lojw by shellkr@mstdn.io
2020-03-28T22:50:42Z
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@rysiek Isn't xlsx a good format?
(DIR) Post #9tTqPrIbbrH5aeN7r6 by shellkr@mstdn.io
2020-03-28T22:52:00Z
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@rysiek Isn't xlsx or csv good formats?
(DIR) Post #9tTtF1QDvsBrf9SYTY by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-28T23:23:39Z
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@shellkr CSV might be fine. XLSX absolutely not. Open standards matter, and I am not going to pull over9000 dependencies just to get a table of 20 dates and figures.
(DIR) Post #9tTtMz7AOYTMp6LJM8 by shellkr@mstdn.io
2020-03-28T23:25:05Z
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@rysiek Well, you got csv sources on that site too.. ;)
(DIR) Post #9tTtRtzwqSvMP2JLwu by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-28T23:25:58Z
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@shellkr oh, I missed that! I'll have a look with a fresh eye in the morning.Do you know how often they're updated? Wikipedia has the advantage of being updated pretty much all the time.
(DIR) Post #9tTteO2sxJAf4HdczA by shellkr@mstdn.io
2020-03-28T23:28:14Z
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@rysiek No, I don't.. but they seem accurate every time I look.
(DIR) Post #9tUMihFcOE5iSg089I by etam@im-in.space
2020-03-25T08:14:31Z
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@rysiek Another idea: Show graph on a linear scale with first and second derivative.First derivative would show how many new cases were confirmed that day.Second derivative would show how many more cases were confirmed, compared to previous day.This would allow to see and compare how quickly it spreads in different countries.(yes, I'm showing signs of Stockholm syndrome after learning calculus ;) )
(DIR) Post #9tVOiPpiuiSu1AaK1I by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-29T15:45:20Z
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Deployed some fixes (the chart now resizes correctly, and I think I finally fixed a long-standing bug that someties made the chart disappear when multiple sites were fetching data simultaneously):https://rys.io/covid/#iceland,united-states,turkey,poland,netherlands,united-kingdomAlso, added a readme to the codebase: https://git.rys.io/rysiek/covid/I have a hunch some of you might enjoy the readme more than the graphs, in fact.
(DIR) Post #9tVOiQv4sILHO4670K by shellkr@mstdn.io
2020-03-29T16:51:00Z
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@rysiek I think deaths per 100k could be interesting... it is a bit more reliable although not completely.
(DIR) Post #9tVWnVIcok3G3I2ZkW by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-29T18:18:45Z
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As requested by @michele and @tga , there is now a switch to show per-million numbers:https://rys.io/covid/#italy,china,united-states,turkey,spain,iceland
(DIR) Post #9tVWnWNymJvdQBYMjY by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-29T18:21:33Z
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@rysiek @michele @tga In this mode, the X start points should also be per 1M
(DIR) Post #9tVWwI9F5DNLs0qHI0 by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-29T18:23:10Z
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@wolf480pl @michele @tga oh you mean "start at 1st/M, 10th/M, 100th/M, 1000th/M"?Hummm. Need to ponder.
(DIR) Post #9tVX02xxTHnHwUM3Y8 by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-29T18:23:48Z
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@rysiek @michele @tga yup.Otherwise, the graphs end up being so out of sync that it's hard to compare the curves.
(DIR) Post #9tVgVCojnGiV3myTXE by michele@finotto.social
2020-03-29T20:10:17Z
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@wolf480pl @rysiek @tga yes, that would be better, but itâs already a great starting point! Thanks @rysiek!
(DIR) Post #9tYyX5UgNGqnZiWKw4 by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-30T02:57:46Z
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On @smarimc's suggestion, I added a rolling average configuration for new cases mode:https://rys.io/covid/#italy,china,united-states,turkey,spain,iceland(note: the configuration UI only shows up when "Cases: new" is selected)Not entirely certain of my code though, so it would be good if anyone could do a reality check on it:https://git.rys.io/rysiek/covid/blob/master/covid.js#L1082
(DIR) Post #9tYyX5qJ4s9Eemdbdo by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-30T22:43:24Z
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Wikipedia data was too messy and broke too often. So I had to switch to something saner:https://rys.io/covid/#global,united-states,united-kingdom,italy,china,spainCurrently using John Hopkin's University data:https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19...as cleaned and provided by pomber/covid19: https://github.com/pomber/covid19Good news: data is more reliable and complete. Also, Global infection site is now available.Bad news: each time you visit a single request goes to the GitHub-hosted data thingy. I will improve on this tomorrow.
(DIR) Post #9tYyX6g3yRY3FIqwJU by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-31T10:10:25Z
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Since I am now using better data source, I can do additional things. So you can now choose between a chart of confirmed cases, recoveries, or deaths:https://rys.io/covid/#global,united-states,united-kingdom,italy,china,spainAll other controls work with either of these, of course.This is becoming quite a flexible tool, if I may be so bold to say.
(DIR) Post #9tYyX7E5vulowqm7MG by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
2020-03-31T10:16:27Z
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@rysiek recoveries on this one look clearly wrong:https://rys.io/covid/#poland,czechia
(DIR) Post #9tZh5tjaU4fdDotwjg by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-31T18:35:48Z
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@wolf480pl it does look weird, I wonder if that's in the data. No time right now to check, but if you'd like to dive into the JSON I am fetch()ing and compare to what's on the graph, feel free. :blobcat:
(DIR) Post #9taZBpwasrlCjGGXs8 by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-03-31T21:46:41Z
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Okay, fixed the privacy issue - JSON data is now fetched from my server, which proxies the request for it upstream (while setting all headers like User-Agent and such to some irrelevant values):https://rys.io/covid/#global,united-states,china,france,spain,italyThis means that your IP nor your User Agent will not show up anywhere else apart from my server (which you're already visiting to see the shiny shiny graphs).Privacy matters.
(DIR) Post #9tgja2oAOlIfL4sfwW by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-04-03T23:47:43Z
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No idea why it took me so long, but added *active cases* graph; that is: confirmed - (deaths + recovered):https://rys.io/covid/#china,united-states,south-koreaI think that's a pretty useful graph. I should have added it sooner.
(DIR) Post #9uCLRIcmX4cenqcXMu by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-04-03T23:52:55Z
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One thing that becomes evident in the "active cases" mode is that the US currently has almost four times the active cases that China had at their worst moment.Go to:https://rys.io/covid/#china,united-states...and switch to "active cases", "linear".I really need to implement the ability to link to a particular chart mode too. One day!
(DIR) Post #9uCLRIpXlcpZRQajGC by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-04-05T17:28:03Z
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Bunch of fixes for the chart: - the y-axis legend now properly reflects the data the chart is showing (confirmed cases / recoveries / deaths / active cases); - lowered the lineTension of the charts, so it's a bit more jagged, but a bit less weird when data changes dramatically day to day; - negative values now charted correctly, especially with linear y-axis.Go here and switch to "active cases", "linear", "new":https://rys.io/covid/#iceland,china
(DIR) Post #9uCLRIxhHJLvqiPEy8 by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-04-09T23:01:32Z
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Added the ability to chart the data from a selected date. This might be more natural way of viewing the charts for many people:https://rys.io/covid/#china,iran,italy,spain,united-kingdom,iceland(select "Start on <date>" below the graph).
(DIR) Post #9uCLRJ6YkMRSICYJma by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-04-11T01:16:36Z
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Made the chart nicer, with a title, way better legend, and some gradients for the guidelines:https://rys.io/covid/#china,iran,italy,spain,united-kingdom,icelandAlready got some additional ideas for next steps. And I have some time tomorrow to implement them. Stay tuned.
(DIR) Post #9uCLRJHY5VESqHh5ua by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-04-12T14:52:00Z
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Added a menu to quickly load data for some potentially #COVID19 interesting infection sites:https://rys.io/covid/Here's hope - 6 sites with highest daily active cases drop:https://rys.io/covid/#iran,germany,switzerland,austria,south-korea,thailandAlso, a bunch of fixes, "mortality" is now correctly called "death-to-case ratio", and "clear all" and "reset all settings" buttons.Ideas for "load 6 sites that" buttons welcome!
(DIR) Post #9uCLRJaKxeGFmYU6CG by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-04-19T00:20:22Z
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Added a case fatality rate mode:https://rys.io/covid/#united-kingdom,netherlands,ireland,norway,honduras,somaliaThis is calculated by dividing deaths by a sum of deaths and recoveries. More context:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rateThanks to @bjarni for inspiration.Also, cleaned up some names in the interface, and improved legends and the title on the chart to better reflect selected options. And added a button to load 6 sites with the highest case fatality rate.
(DIR) Post #9uCMve2FalgpqhZDOa by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-04-19T00:23:13Z
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Fun fact: if all countries did extensive testing of the population and recorded reliable data on confirmed cases, recoveries, and deaths, case fatality rate would reflect how good each country is in their #COVID19 response.But this is the real world and thus, for example, #UK doesn't seem to record recoveries anymore. Thus, CFR becomes useful to tell which countries do not do a good job recording/reporting the data.
(DIR) Post #9uCMveDaualQPssH4q by shellkr@mstdn.io
2020-04-19T10:23:36Z
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@rysiek This is a huge issue so I think it is better to look at total death by country and compare it with a "normal" year or even better a median of normal years.Deaths has to be reported but not the cause of it. Testing and administration takes a toll on personell resources that may be better used to care for the sick.Which will show the over-all consequences of the pandemic as not all affected will have covid-19.
(DIR) Post #9uLWR9p06pPBQ56t8K by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-04-23T20:20:31Z
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Okay, finally implemented passing chart settings (along with countries/infection sites) in the URL hash:https://rys.io/covid/#active,delta,average:5;poland,icelandSo you can share a chart along with the settings you used to get it. Wooo!Also, some bugfixes and cleanups here and there.Testing welcome, this bit was a bit hairy and I might have introduced some bugs.
(DIR) Post #9uLWRA3tDTJaAG4mLA by CSB@noagendasocial.com
2020-04-23T20:22:32Z
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@rysiek have you seen covid dashboard at wolfram alpha?
(DIR) Post #9uLWSt2VTYmnwxFgXY by rysiek@mastodon.social
2020-04-23T20:22:52Z
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@CSB nope.