Post BAXpYMfHWjEEv1VzN2 by Aissen@social.treehouse.systems
 (DIR) More posts by Aissen@social.treehouse.systems
 (DIR) Post #BAXgE5OH8xOrxqoeie by ariadne@social.treehouse.systems
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       RE: https://climatejustice.social/@ketan/117292070733262019the real story is thankfully not the risk of increased climate destruction on the part of nvidia: the fab capacity needed for nvidia to sell twice as many chips simply does not exist and will not exist within a year.instead, it is the fact that they are booking sales on paper, and then telling investors the number is going up.and yes, it is. on paper.but if the fab capacity does not exist, then the fab capacity does not exist.in other words, nvidia is straight up lying to investors.RT: https://climatejustice.social/users/ketan/statuses/117292070733262019
       
 (DIR) Post #BAXgZJPWDEL3WnWEMa by pikhq@social.treehouse.systems
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       @ariadne oh this is. uh. going to blow up _bad_, huh
       
 (DIR) Post #BAXgr61uhTq9EzxSCm by indigoparadox@mastodon.social
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       @ariadne I was watching an interview with Ed Zitron who was pointing out that Microsoft and co are warehousing all the chips they're buying, too, so buying even more serves no practical purpose other than if nvidia is doing some kinda shady "buy these or you won't get access to the next ones" deal, and it all seems so flimsy... and immoral (thou shalt not deny the masses gaming PCs)...
       
 (DIR) Post #BAXh25fqMdQ1K2sSUS by ariadne@social.treehouse.systems
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       additionally, most fabs are operating in asia.  most AI datacenters are not operating in asia.and while oil futures are trading at ~$108 right now, the real-world price per barrel for a consignment of crude oil is ~$125 and rising: https://commodityscope.com/prices/dated-brent-crude-oilgiven how rapidly oil prices are rising, and the increasing differential between oil futures and actual consignment pricing, an important question to ask is how nvidia plans to *ship* these GPU chips to the hyperscalersbecause, even if they did exist, it's becoming increasingly unclear how they would do this
       
 (DIR) Post #BAXhXYHA4ZvR0TKnNw by ariadne@social.treehouse.systems
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       @barometz @pikhq nah this position will be forced to collapse due to peak oil
       
 (DIR) Post #BAXhj9AHGEdUbKdwye by pikhq@social.treehouse.systems
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       @ariadne @barometz that's definitely one way the shit could hit the fan. pretty likely even, given, uh, current eventsin either case, there are feces flying rapidly towards fan blades at this very moment
       
 (DIR) Post #BAXiqmKq7nAe4DmqI4 by deutrino@mstdn.io
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       @ariadne fab capacity of leading-edge nodes also has what, a 5-year lead time? and how far out are EUV lithography machine orders now?
       
 (DIR) Post #BAXitjl4A7suwYSs4m by ariadne@social.treehouse.systems
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       @deutrino exactly.  nvidia can say they are doing whatever, but when their entire inventory is spoken for already, it means they cannot sell more.
       
 (DIR) Post #BAXkDNv1Adb4xI3IMy by rotopenguin@mastodon.social
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       @ariadne ah, but you're ignoring the "first contact and Nvidia convinces the Vulcans to fabricate inference chips for us" scenario
       
 (DIR) Post #BAXmVzdhrdVl45xJxo by Aissen@social.treehouse.systems
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       @ariadne these chips (and the servers around them) are so expensive that the shipping cost around them is a rounding error. They'll pretend HBM is even more expensive and margins won't even budge as the customers absorb the rising oil 2nd order effects.
       
 (DIR) Post #BAXmer7otCnzGTGcca by ariadne@social.treehouse.systems
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       @Aissen what i mean is that the oil itself may not be available to ship the chips
       
 (DIR) Post #BAXpYMfHWjEEv1VzN2 by Aissen@social.treehouse.systems
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       @ariadne what I mean is that as oil dry (because of logistics blocus) it will not disappear, just become several times more expensive because of the reduced offer; there will be arbitrage on what is profitable to ship.If the bubble does not take a hint and start exploding by then, the very expensive GPU chips will find a way to arrive.Unfortunately such imbalance in oil pricing might cause unrest in China and motivate Xi to move on Taiwan. So such chips might not even get produced in the first place…