Post B69oFK8LDqlA7gzgtk by Tendar@newsie.social
 (DIR) More posts by Tendar@newsie.social
 (DIR) Post #B69oFK8LDqlA7gzgtk by Tendar@newsie.social
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       It was only yesterday when I said that the war in Ukraine unleashed by Russia is entering its final stage. Then, only a few hours later Putin announced that the war is "coming to an end".Let’s clarify this at the beginning. His remark are coming from position of distress and weakness. The humiliating May 9 parade and more importantly the reasons, which led to it, left a serious mark on him.
       
 (DIR) Post #B69oFKL6SOy4lGxsn2 by Tendar@newsie.social
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       You cannot overstate the importance the May 9 holds for Putin. It is "his" national holiday, which stands above all. Having it diminished, especially in such a obvious manner, is to diminish him and his rule.Putin has no intentions to seriously end the war at this point, because Russia hasn't achieved anything. Ending it now would put Russia's defeat into writing and bury him, politically, figuratively and eventually literally.
       
 (DIR) Post #B69oFKahWPRdXeGL6O by Tendar@newsie.social
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       Putin tries to distract from his humiliation by attempting to launch another round of talks. This in itself is not new, but it comes at a time when Russian war effort and its economy are in great distress. It is the ideal opportunity to apply even more pressure on Russia.
       
 (DIR) Post #B69oFOq5j88GiXUge8 by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
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       @TendarIf he ends the war, he will create a good opportunity for his subordinates to remove him.Right now anybody who replaced Putin would be left with this hot mess of an unwinnable war. Those near the top probably don't know how to deal with this well, so they'd rather wait for Putin to deal with it badly, then remove him once it's over and put all the blame on him.
       
 (DIR) Post #B69uxkdYdyKkmyAAzY by ArtHarg@mastodon.nl
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       @wolf480pl @Tendar The risk becomes ever greater that Putin croaks before the war is over. They’d be in the same situation. They might as well label him a traitor who sacrificed Russia’s glory to an ill-advised personal dream, remove him, and cease hostilities.
       
 (DIR) Post #B69uxkqfrCpFReIeR6 by wolf480pl@mstdn.io
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       @ArtHargit takes two to cease hostilities, and Ukraine will want to recover lost territoryUSA still has some leverage over Ukraine so RUS probably could freeze status quo without UA's willingness if USA is on board.But RUS also wants more from a peace deal - it wants the sanctions lifted, and it's unclear to me what they could bargain to get that.@Tendar