Post B5nMraRxvzc1XPVmts by collappsar@fediverse-lite.com
(DIR) More posts by collappsar@fediverse-lite.com
(DIR) Post #B5nMraCMrz8Sl2DKaW by IAMAL_PHARIUS@poa.st
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They are sending the signals.>Inflation up gold up>Higher for longer gold down>New guy incoming>Interest on debt starts eating social security>Fresh credit lines to governments>Bailouts on the horizon>WE ARE NOT GONNA QE
(DIR) Post #B5nMraRxvzc1XPVmts by collappsar@fediverse-lite.com
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@IAMAL_PHARIUS The real looming threat is that roughly 25% of private credit portfolios are software companies, roughly 1/3 of all lending value is for software companies, capex on AI infra is through the roof, jobs are being cut for the capex, SaaS valuations are dropping, refinancing the loans will be way expensive next year, and also the AI is overvalued.And now you can see why I'm rotating out of touching anything that has anything to do with software or AI in a major way from June. No thanks, I'm good!
(DIR) Post #B5nPEfTLcy4HgPI9aa by brokenshakles@poa.st
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Be ready to rotate back in when values are reasonable again.AI is the wave of the future, but not at these prices. It's the dotcom bubble all over again.
(DIR) Post #B5nPEfjeeL70UyvB0S by collappsar@fediverse-lite.com
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@brokenshakles @IAMAL_PHARIUS Yes, exactly. After the almighty drop I'll go back in. Honestly the best investment will probably be Amazon after the drop. They'll end up controlling most of the AI processing when the dust settles, I think.
(DIR) Post #B5nQ8We3dNHyWRw6ZE by brokenshakles@poa.st
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Is Amazon overvalued relative to it's revenues? I know that there are a lot of enthusiastic dip-buyers at these levels already. And not the sucker kind, the knows-what-they-are-doing certified-investor whale kind.
(DIR) Post #B5nQ8WtehNlXIpEYsa by collappsar@fediverse-lite.com
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@brokenshakles @IAMAL_PHARIUS I just tend to think panic selling drags generally everything in the same category down.
(DIR) Post #B5nZXkzcKGApqe7uRE by brokenshakles@poa.st
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You are correct, but it also depends on how overextended things are. If there are not a lot of leveraged speculators in the instrument, it may not be worth rotating in and out.Right now I'm in a bunch of metal miners, mostly silver/copper, and that sector has been suppressed for decades. Not really worth it to try and rotate in and out, especially when my income relative to my holdings is not terribly distant. Better to just accumulate steadily into whatever the dump of the month is.
(DIR) Post #B5nZXlEVQu5Eap5ne4 by collappsar@fediverse-lite.com
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@brokenshakles @IAMAL_PHARIUS I got a bunch of money from gold and a little from silver, and I'm done with that for now. I sold all of that. I figure the prices got manipulated way high and I probably sold the top on those. I got a bit of oil prices rising, got out of that.Mostly I'm into crypto companies now for a bit while they enjoy a little resurgence, and other than that pretty much just basic bitch ETFs that'll enjoy a little ride up until I can move to just "everything but software."There's very little I ever buy I don't hold for at least 3-6 months at a time.
(DIR) Post #B5ncE0JVx9KRR5hpvE by brokenshakles@poa.st
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Miners are a bit different, they are still in a long-term historical bottoming pattern, and trying to break out. Even if spot does nothing but crab dance, at current values miners are going to cashflow like mad.
(DIR) Post #B5ncE0ZoyWNAFfKrL6 by collappsar@fediverse-lite.com
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@brokenshakles @IAMAL_PHARIUS I'm just a bit too concerned about risks with miners. I'm very risk averse.
(DIR) Post #B5oCaD3ypPRXhMKNto by IAMAL_PHARIUS@poa.st
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i dont believe is only 25%. mag 7 is 33% of total market cap. nvidia is doing the nortel speed run where they are giving out loans to buyers of AI chips. very badly allocated capital. market makers like blackrock is blocking withdrawal on alot of their boomer funds.this, along with manipulation of commodities will just make people leave. stagflation time.
(DIR) Post #B5oCaDdmgI5DUP4yhs by collappsar@fediverse-lite.com
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@IAMAL_PHARIUS I love that you compare Nvidia to Nortel. Very apt comparison.I think this time we're going to get four Nortels.1. Nividia2. OpenAI3. Anthropic4. SpaceXThe biggest problem I have with AI software companies is that their core products are the models and the two basic agents for chat and coding that function decently, and literally everything else they make doesn't work when you try and use it. Go ahead and try any one of those ChatGPT "apps." Try doing anything promised with workflow for document management. None of it works.
(DIR) Post #B5pAm7AsXhii9x3zyC by sickburnbro@poa.st
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I don't think SpaceX is a nortel simply because there is organic demand for launch services.Their "pie in the sky" is asteroid mining, and I think that's even more realistic than the scenario the AI bros are selling.Hell if you subbed in Tesla, I'd still say that's more realistic than the AI stuff.
(DIR) Post #B5pC2PmdDs54Sg3gie by petra@poa.st
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One thing about Nortel is that it was penetrated completely by the Chinese. There were entire work groups who were Chinese and worked and spoke together in only Chinese. Most went on to work in Huawei Canada after Nortel fell.Telecommunications, which Canada had some success in historically, was identified as key technology by China, and Canada an easy target for espionage.I would think rockets and space technology is just as key to China today and they are making the same effort to steal as much technology as possible. The difference today is everyone is aware of this. But bribes and blackmail work the same today as it always has. You can only mitigate the damage.
(DIR) Post #B5pbel7qopMeVmMeKO by collappsar@fediverse-lite.com
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@petra @IAMAL_PHARIUS @sickburnbro There's some Chinese I wouldn't mind penetrating.