Post B4kZQT8RgzPJA6Ny9w by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
(DIR) More posts by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
(DIR) Post #B4kZQRXBe20eCFwhRg by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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Ok, have been ruminating on some things and here are my thoughts on Iran and the coming ground war, this is gonna be a thread, so just follow along sequentially
(DIR) Post #B4kZQS5DbVEPtnrsUS by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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So if it isn't obvious to all, a ground invasion is happening. you can move 10,000 troops for training exercises, but much like Ukraine, you don't move 10k troops to the border of a country you're bombing without a plan to do something with them. It's expensive and those troops need to do something for that money, if for nothing else than to act as an expensive pawn in your geopolitical market scamming.
(DIR) Post #B4kZQSa3kptxRSIVYu by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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Kharg Island has been touted a lot as the objective, frankly I think this is suicide. It won't be D-day type shit, but getting there will be hazardous. The straight of hormuz is between 39 and 97km (24 - 60miles) in size, in terms of naval warfare that might as well be a swimming pool. Drones, missiles, jets and small boats easily own that area, it's tiny and to get to kharg island is 660km (210km) from the straight, you HAVE to go through the straight to get there.
(DIR) Post #B4kZQT8RgzPJA6Ny9w by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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So what's the alternative? You can throw troops out of airplanes, but troop drops are slow moving and easy fodder for Anti air. Parachutes are slow moving and AA guns can make light work of the people hanging from them, and even if you somehow get a foothold there, you need to keep those same troops supplied.So what else can be done to get a foothold on Kharg?
(DIR) Post #B4kZQTfPiPmKoLoIXw by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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The next option is to deploy troops on RHIBs from the north coast of Saudi Arabia (most likely), Kuwait (also possible, less likely) or Iraqs southern coast (less likely). But troops on rhibs will not be able to easily return with the inevitable casualties, usmc rhibs can manage 200miles on one tank (thanks google). Likely there will be an element of air support to make this happen, but to avoid the inevitable drone strike air support will need to be stationed FAR from the front
(DIR) Post #B4kZQUHLRO7UhzYafY by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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So we have our sea-bourne troops, they somehow make it to the island, the V-22s somehow get enough people there to get a sizeable foothold. Kharg is small so armour support is possible, but probably unnecessary. The next step is getting to the objectives (whatever there is to seize). The big one will be the petro-chemical loading docks, which is essential to supporting Irans petro-chemical economy at sea
(DIR) Post #B4kZQUhDtAou0FfG0O by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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Irans petro-chemical economy relies on Kharg 90% of irans oil exports go from here. So it's pretty significant, and Iran knows this is coming, so they are likely bolstering for the incoming attack. There will be serious consequences for any american that sets foot there.But Iran has land-links to most of its biggest buyers, the roads are long, but China has paid a lot of money for its belt-and-road initiative for this very reason. Tankers can take the land route.
(DIR) Post #B4kZQVAI964XSPGTJY by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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In the past few days, we've seen numbers of tankers going to China and Pakistan, no doubt other places too, passing through the straight of hormuz. This in my opinion is Iran selling off the gold before the bank is burglarized. They just need to turn off the supply to kharg when it's completely empty and make a switch to road-based tanking.This doesn't eliminate the threat to their supply side, but it does make it harder for america to get at.
(DIR) Post #B4kZQVYOhTM2fAXit6 by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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The next question is what of these american troops on Kharg island. You can't resupply with warships, you're stuck feeding them with light boats that can be moved to a nearby coast and floated, or air support. Assuming the air support coverage isn't interrupted, this leaves them with nearly 9000 civillians and an untold number of insurgent IRGC members to handle. Many of us have seen iraq and the fumble that lead to a protracted counterinsurgency.
(DIR) Post #B4kZQVyz6ccbzcyxKS by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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This will likely mean there is a form of fallujiah type door-to-door fighting, without armour support like fallujiah had. Fallujiah is sometimes portrayed as a pure war of insurgents vs USMC in fighting, the reality is many civillians could not leave, many got massacred as a result. So we get extra war crimes to observe in the next phase. If you thought 190 kids and teachers being oblitirated was bad enough, wait for the kharg campaign.
(DIR) Post #B4kZQWM1ix3N95lMFE by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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All this fighting, of course, happening under a constant barrage of missiles, drone strikes and small boat fighting as iran tries to decapitate command and strangle supplies.This is assuming there is a foothold at all. That's the BEST case for the US. The worst case is a small number of troops make landfall, and become fodder for Al Jazeera
(DIR) Post #B4kZQWthhjzYpXWFjk by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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The long term so-what of this, if we assume it all goes swimmingly for the US is either "good job, we killed irans oil production" - they did not in fact do this, OR we proceed to invade mainland Iran, which is suicide. Mountain fighting in a desert terrain against an army that has around 1 million troops and trains specifically to fight YOU is very hard.
(DIR) Post #B4kZQXKI6tG89zxUB6 by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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That means even if they achieve all their goals militarily, almost certainly at a high human cost, they will need to withdraw and go home, which makes them look like the losers.The only alternative is either long term ground invasion, which the US can probably not afford given the shambling economy, never mind the human cost OR it means some other more extreme escalation from the US.
(DIR) Post #B4kZQXikdwpDNrP1Iu by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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The next escalation would mean probably flattening tehran entirely, and to me the easy option would be a nuke (remember how I bang on about Putin saying "one probably won't start ww3"?).In reality the US could maybe do something economically, but I don't see that being any more effective than the last 40-odd years of sanctions. So what then?I mean you fire a nuke and it's a no-holds bar rush for every super-power in waiting to take the power spot.
(DIR) Post #B4kZQYBots4qq10Ec4 by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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Most certainly one shot off by the US would make russia feel free to flatten Berlin in a similar fashion. Bad Vlad has been champing at the bit to do that for a while, he wants the kiev Jewel for the crown and the next biggest military power in Europe is Germany.China gets a free pop at taiwan, again, something they've been shaping their military for for a while, it's not like the US has the stones to fire nukes at another nuclear power
(DIR) Post #B4kZQYjUsf12WSl86a by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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Assuming China don't do that, in my opinion they don't need to, they can simply scald the US internationally and step into the US's shoes as the worlds foremost superpower by providing recovery aid to anyone blighted by the US. This would just mean showing up to the aftermath and helping to pick up the pieces.The US's veil of peacemaking never really recovered after the GWOT, but it got pulled away and burned for good after the attacks on Iran.
(DIR) Post #B4kZQZBrBDhVwQ1mJE by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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This isn't just America having their fall of Rome moment, the Goths are done smashing up the senate. This is the Seige of Constantinople, the last gasping breath of the empire. In many ways the US never looked so terrifying, the military prowess has not looked this scary since the 80s, but beneath it is a faltering economy, a terrified political class that have grown fat off of the spoils of war and a starving underclass who want change.
(DIR) Post #B4kZQZcRaMy5GsT0ka by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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The next phase, post-war, will be the working class of america eating their masters. This is an event horizon, the specifics are as of now unwritten, but history is a flat circle and all that, so it's very likely this is the end of it all and in 500 years people will talk about trump in the same way we talk about Caeser or Calligula. A nepo-baby who was so consumed by power he spent an entire empire following his fancies to his demise.
(DIR) Post #B4kZQa0CA3y0SXZyls by BigTittyBimbo@autonomous.zone
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Probably end of thread, obvs much of this is speculation, there's a lot of untolds and almost certainly there are a thousand CIA analysts typing on a thousand typewriters to produce the works of shakespeare on this one, so it's anyone's game in military terms.The power factors are pretty certain though, this is the last throws of empire and the collapse and resulting power vacuum will be written about for centuries.