[HN Gopher] How Copernicus took down Ptolemy's Almagest
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       How Copernicus took down Ptolemy's Almagest
        
       Author : Hooke
       Score  : 40 points
       Date   : 2024-03-02 23:26 UTC (23 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.atlasobscura.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.atlasobscura.com)
        
       | visarga wrote:
       | Can we say humans also hallucinate and continue parroting a bad
       | idea for 1500 years? How does this support the concept that
       | humans have real understanding unlike AI? Looks to me we have
       | hallucinated theories that eventually get invalidated. We don't
       | really understand, we're like hallucinating LLMs testing their
       | outputs in the world.
       | 
       | Similarly to this we had no idea about the germ theory of disease
       | even when 30% of our population was dying (Black Death). A life
       | and death scenario and we couldn't figure it out, that's how
       | intelligent we are in reality - not enough to save our asses. Our
       | intelligence is social, an environment based discovery process
       | not something coming from a single brain.
       | 
       | All we know comes from the environment, and no agent is too smart
       | alone. We should reexamine intelligence as a property of the
       | brain, better see it as a property of language.
        
         | koliber wrote:
         | Coming up with a plausible but incorrect theory of how
         | something works is not hallucination. Hallucination is seeing
         | something that is not there.
         | 
         | In terms of LLMs, they don't come up with with any original
         | theories. When they hallucinate, they make things up that are
         | easily shown to be untrue using current and present methods.
        
           | visarga wrote:
           | There is no difference between real understanding and
           | integrating feedback into a hallucinating model. We're
           | adjusting based on feedback to reign hallucination in.
        
             | marketneutral wrote:
             | A and B are not the same thing if they can sometimes
             | generate the same output to a particular query.
        
         | mihaic wrote:
         | What you're doing seems to be the opposite of
         | anthropomorphization (is there a term for that?) You seem to be
         | considering humans by forcing them to fit into the observations
         | of LLM outputs.
         | 
         | > Our intelligence is social, an environment based discovery
         | process not something coming from a single brain.
         | 
         | Germ theory didn't come from the group, there were individuals
         | that came up with new inventions (the microscope)_and concepts
         | that later were approved by a community.
         | 
         | I think you're trying to oversimplify our society, and that
         | loses some important truths along the way.
        
       | dave333 wrote:
       | So which of today's accepted theories are in error? Quantum
       | Mechanics and General Relativity do not agree so at least one
       | must be incorrect yet both are widely if not completely accepted.
        
         | FredPret wrote:
         | We're certainly zero-ing in on the truth though, which is
         | extremely exciting
        
           | _a_a_a_ wrote:
           | Are we though? All I see is a lot of effort followed by a lot
           | of reaching (yet again) for the aspirin and/or whiskey.
           | 
           | Have you any examples showing recent convergence between
           | quantum & relativity?
        
             | FredPret wrote:
             | Pessimism much? We have GPS satellites orbiting, we can
             | land a robot on a specific spot on Mars, and we can make a
             | ton of predictions about how the universe should look on
             | both huge and tiny scales and have those pan out.
             | 
             | Sure we don't have a single theory of everything yet, but
             | our mental model is asymptotically converging to our
             | observations.
        
         | summerdown2 wrote:
         | A scientific theory doesn't have to be wrong or right. It can
         | simply be useful as long as the limitations are understood. Eg,
         | the domains where it applies and the domains where you
         | shouldn't use it.
         | 
         | Isaac Asimov wrote a really great essay about this, in which he
         | pointed out that some people thought the Earth was flat. And it
         | is flat, on a local scale. Then people thought it was round.
         | And it is round, just not exactly. Then it was considered an
         | oblate sphere. And it is an oblate sphere - just not exactly.
         | 
         | The main theme of his essay is to point out that a theory can
         | be wrong, but pretty accurate. Enough for rough work. And the
         | one that replaces it can also be wrong, but even closer. Etc.
         | So all theories in succession can be wrong. The real question
         | is how wrong a theory is, and how useful it is.
         | 
         | Here's the essay:
         | 
         | https://hermiene.net/essays-trans/relativity_of_wrong.html
        
           | ngcc_hk wrote:
           | As long as you do not kill people who even talk about these
           | ...
           | 
           | And whilst one can say these, one may note something like say
           | letting blood can cure disease it is not. Hence talking is
           | ok. But actually using it ...
        
         | wolverine876 wrote:
         | > So which of today's accepted theories are in error?
         | 
         | It's not the same kind of error. Because science is based on
         | factual observation, it tends to agree with the facts of
         | reality.
         | 
         | > Quantum Mechanics and General Relativity do not agree so at
         | least one must be incorrect
         | 
         | That's not so. It's not a binary choice at all. Both are
         | accurate - both accurately predict certain phenomena and they
         | will continue to do that. Someday, hopefully, someone will come
         | up with an explanation that encapsulates both of them.
        
         | pdonis wrote:
         | _> Quantum Mechanics and General Relativity do not agree_
         | 
         | More precisely, they are incompatible _if you treat them as
         | fundamental theories of everything_. But _neither_ QM nor GR
         | _claims_ to be any such thing.
         | 
         | That is a key difference between our current theories and
         | schemes like Aristotelian physics, or for that matter Newtonian
         | physics. Both Newton _and_ Aristotle thought their theories
         | were theories of everything. We know that neither the QM we
         | currently have nor the GR we currently have are theories of
         | everything; they are just models valid within particular
         | domains. Those domains are very wide, but (a) neither one
         | covers everything, and (b) there is virtually no overlap
         | between them, and where there is (for example, quantum field
         | theory in curved spacetime) we have ways of meshing them that
         | work well enough.
        
       | bcaxis wrote:
       | How mach of our current understanding is just as wrong?
        
         | Certhas wrote:
         | Nothing.
         | 
         | At least not for any precise definition of "just as wrong" that
         | would be useful.
         | 
         | There is, today, not a single terrestrial observation in
         | contradiction to GR and QM. We have an incredibly good
         | understanding of the fundamental nature of our reality.
         | 
         | Our understanding is so good that it takes decades of work by
         | brilliant scientists and engineers, to build machines that
         | could show even the slightest evidence of something else going
         | on.
         | 
         | It's easy to overlook how stunning this situation is. It is
         | utterly unprecedented in the history of science.
         | 
         | This does not mean that there are no deeper truths to discover,
         | but Newtonian mechanics does correctly describe how the apple
         | falls, even if it is not the final word.
        
         | lcuff wrote:
         | "We don't know what we don't know", comes to mind as an answer.
         | Quantum Mechanics and General Relativity explain a Whole Lot,
         | but since they haven't yet been "meshed", there's more to come.
         | The James Webb Space Telescope is providing data that is
         | upending many things in cosmology. Dark Matter: As a phrase,
         | it's not even clear that it's "matter". There's some phenomenon
         | that causes stars to be attracted to one another independent of
         | our current notion of mass.
         | 
         | Richard Feynman said "Science is the belief in the ignorance of
         | experts", and Carl Sagan said the "Science is a way of thinking
         | more than it is a body of knowledge". Both of these point to
         | the reality that our current understanding of the universe is
         | riddled with errors and omissions. We do our best with the data
         | we have, and try to transcend our own prejudices and history.
         | 
         | How much or our current understanding is "just as wrong?":
         | Well, like most things, it's on a continuum, and to some extent
         | a matter of opinion. Was Newtonian mechanics "just as wrong" as
         | Ptolemy, when considering Relativity? I wouldn't say so, but
         | maybe you would. Ptolemy's conception explained almost nothing
         | and glossed over contradicting facts. Newton put mathematics
         | around observations available to him, but named the reality
         | that he had no understanding of how action-at-a-distance
         | happened. "I make no hypothesis".
        
         | stareatgoats wrote:
         | Depending on what the future might bring, maybe all of it - or
         | at least some aspect of everything. Since we base much, if not
         | all of of our understanding on what we think we know: when
         | those beliefs get thrown out then it will affect everything.
         | This is admittedly not very useful in everyday life since we
         | can't know beforehand exactly how earthshattering the new
         | knowledge will be. Except, useful perhaps as a certain antidote
         | to the potential suppressive damage done by those who are
         | absolutely certain of the things we know now to be true for
         | ever.
         | 
         | Example: what if it turned out that time itself had qualities
         | no-one had suspected before? Time is one of those fundamental
         | things in existence that may (or likely will) still reveal some
         | previously unknown aspect. Which in turn would likely affect
         | our perception of all things in existence.
         | 
         | Which means our "primitive" concept of time (and everything in
         | it) would perhaps not be wrong, but incomplete. Or plainly
         | wrong, for that matter.
        
           | throwup238 wrote:
           | _> Example: what if it turned out that time itself had
           | qualities no-one had suspected before? Time is one of those
           | fundamental things in existence that may (or likely will)
           | still reveal some previously unknown aspect. Which in turn
           | would likely affect our perception of all things in
           | existence._
           | 
           | "All models are wrong, but some are useful" [1]
           | 
           | The validity of Newtonian mechanics didn't change because we
           | discovered relativity just like the equations of motion don't
           | become invalid because there's friction. It's still useful,
           | we're just more familiar with the boundary conditions where
           | it breaks down. It's unlikely we'll ever throw it away
           | because it is the simplest model with a lot of predictive
           | value at low energies.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_models_are_wrong
        
           | mistermann wrote:
           | > Since we base much, if not all of of our understanding on
           | what we think we know: when those beliefs get thrown out then
           | it will affect everything.
           | 
           | I don't think getting to the point of throwing anything out
           | is necessary, if (some adequate subset of) humans could even
           | get to the point of _seriously_ wondering if our models and
           | beliefs (across all domains, including those outside of
           | science, _particularly those which science sits on top of_ )
           | contain zero fundamentally important flaws, I believe we
           | would be well on the path to sorting the mess we've made out.
           | Science and engineering are excellent examples of how capable
           | humans are when they really set their minds on trying to
           | understand something.
        
         | bazoom42 wrote:
         | Probably all of it, if we extrapolate from the history of
         | science. The theories we have now have replaced theories we now
         | consoider wrong or less correct. No reason to think this will
         | stop.
        
           | wolverine876 wrote:
           | That's not actually true. We refine the theories, making them
           | more accurate or extend them to cover a wider range of
           | situations, but the theories usually hold out pretty well.
           | Newton didn't address some things that Einstein did, but
           | within their scope - which is most of human perceptual
           | experience - they are accurate.
        
         | TheBlight wrote:
         | The existence of singularities and dark matter suggest our
         | current models could use some work.
        
         | sorokod wrote:
         | Depends on how you measure wrong, I don't think that Newtonian
         | vs. Special Relativity Physics is the same amount of wrong as
         | geocentric vs. heliocentric
        
           | pdonis wrote:
           | Relativity doesn't agree with you. Relativity says you _can_
           | use a frame centered on the Earth if you like. It makes your
           | description of the motions of the Sun, Moon, and planets more
           | complicated, which is why astronomers don 't do it--why
           | complicate things if you don't need to? But it's still a
           | perfectly valid viewpoint as far as relativity is concerned.
           | 
           | In fact, astronomers today don't even use a "heliocentric"
           | frame--they use a barycentric frame, i.e., the spatial origin
           | is the barycenter of the solar system. The Sun is of course
           | much closer to the barycenter than any other body, but it's
           | not exactly _at_ it.
        
         | pdonis wrote:
         | In physics? None of it. As Steven Weinberg remarked, if you
         | have one of those T-shirts with Maxwell's Equations on it, you
         | might have to worry about it going out of style, but not about
         | it becoming false. Of course the remark about going out of
         | style presupposes that it was ever _in_ style to begin with,
         | which is questionable, but doesn 't affect the main point. :-)
         | 
         | What we _do_ have in our current physics is a reasonably good
         | understanding of the _limitations_ of our theories: we know
         | that none of them are theories of everything, they all have
         | limited domains of validity, even if for some of them those
         | domains are very wide. That is the key thing that systems like
         | those of Aristotle and Newton did _not_ have.
        
       | Jun8 wrote:
       | The premise of this article is wrong: heliocentric was not
       | rejected because ancient scientists were foolish or they were
       | afraid to speak up to established theory. It was not accepted
       | because egocentrism produced better results!
       | 
       | They correctly understood that heliocentrism predicted a parallax
       | but failed to measure that with the primitive observational
       | equipment they had. I thought this was a commonly known fact,
       | together with the myth that the ancient believed Earth was flat,
       | but evidently not.
       | 
       | For further reading:
       | https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/26291/why-did-th...
        
         | canjobear wrote:
         | Furthermore Copernicus's system had lower accuracy and more
         | epicycles. There wasn't any real reason to prefer heliocentric
         | models until Kepler.
        
           | mistercheph wrote:
           | Kepler makes Copernicus look like a tool.
        
         | sorokod wrote:
         | A neat example of how the predictive power of a theory does not
         | guarantee its correctness. Even if the theory and its
         | predictions were incremental refined and improved over time.
        
           | mistercheph wrote:
           | What measure is there for assessing the correctness of a
           | theory aside from predictive power?
        
             | sorokod wrote:
             | Here we have a theory which turned out to be fundamentally
             | wrong while having predictive power.
             | 
             | Maybe every physical theory is just a model approximating
             | something that can at any time be replaced by by a better
             | model that is still just that, a model.
        
               | pdonis wrote:
               | _> Here we have a theory which turned out to be
               | fundamentally wrong_
               | 
               | What makes you think so? How is Ptolemaic theory
               | "fundamentally wrong" where our best current physical
               | theories are not?
               | 
               |  _> Maybe every physical theory is just a model
               | approximating something that can at any time be replaced
               | by by a better model that is still just that, a model._
               | 
               | This is indeed our current view of physical theories. But
               | you realize, don't you, that once you accept this, it
               | invalidates your criticism of Ptolemaic theory? Ptolemaic
               | theory was a model. For centuries it was the best model
               | known in terms of the accuracy of its predictions, which
               | were accurate enough to predict things like eclipses
               | years in advance. We now have better models, but none of
               | that invalidates Ptolemaic theory's achievements. It just
               | means we have now found better approximations.
               | 
               | In fact, our modern viewpoint, specifically relativity,
               | even helps us to understand _why_ the Ptolematic model
               | worked as well as it did: it is one way of describing
               | what you get if you use an inertial frame centered on the
               | Earth to analyze the motions of the Sun, Moon, and
               | planets! IIRC Steven Weinberg, years ago, wrote a paper
               | that expounded this in some detail.
        
         | KingOfCoders wrote:
         | +1 Myth of the flat Earth
         | 
         | For some years I gave talks about this (Germany), it is
         | astonishing how many people think that the idea of a spherical
         | earth is a new one.
         | 
         | "The myth of the flat Earth, or the flat-Earth error, is a
         | modern historical misconception that European scholars and
         | educated people during the Middle Ages believed the Earth to be
         | flat."
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myth_of_the_flat_Earth
        
           | lo_zamoyski wrote:
           | Many such ideas are the work of Enlightenment pamphleteers
           | engaged in self-flattery and anti-Church propaganda
           | (including the Protestant variety). By straw manning the
           | Middle Ages (especially the Middle Ages, as many of these
           | types had an ax to grind against the Church) or the ancients
           | as superstitious imbeciles, it makes them look better, these
           | true men of reason, in the eyes of the ignorant whom they
           | sought to impress.
           | 
           | And wacky ideas like fundmentalism are likewise very new
           | historically, but eagerly seized upon by our modern sophists
           | who, again, have an ax to grind.
        
             | mandmandam wrote:
             | > self-flattery
             | 
             | Lol.
             | 
             | > By straw manning the Middle Ages (especially the Middle
             | Ages, as many of these types had an ax to grind against the
             | Church) or the ancients as superstitious imbeciles, it
             | makes them look better, these true men of reason, in the
             | eyes of the ignorant whom they sought to impress.
             | 
             | This is a great point - and still relevant. Academia does
             | this to this day, attacking researchers like Jared Diamond,
             | pooh-poohing the work of (very) ancient mathematicians and
             | astronomers, or diminishing the insanely impressive
             | craftsmanship shown in, eg, 30-50 thousand year old flutes,
             | carved with perfect pentatonic scales.
             | 
             | Pentatonic scales! Well over 30,000 years ago! The
             | implications of that are astounding.
        
         | throw0101a wrote:
         | > _They correctly understood that heliocentrism predicted a
         | parallax but failed to measure that with the primitive
         | observational equipment they had._
         | 
         | Aristotle in _De Caelo_ (Book II, part 14):
         | 
         | > _The earth, then, also, whether it move about the centre or
         | as stationary at it, must necessarily move with two motions.
         | But if this were so, there would have to be passings and
         | turnings of the fixed stars. Yet no such thing is observed. The
         | same stars always rise and set in the same parts of the earth._
         | 
         | * http://classics.mit.edu/Aristotle/heavens.2.ii.html
         | 
         | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Heavens
         | 
         | See also:
         | 
         | > _In the_ mathematikoi _tradition of Pythagoreanism the Earth
         | was removed from the center of the universe. The_ mathematikoi
         | _believed that the Earth, along with other celestial bodies,
         | orbited around a central fire. This, they believed, constituted
         | a celestial harmony.[24]_
         | 
         | *
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagoreanism#The_mathematiko...
        
         | nyokodo wrote:
         | > heliocentrism predicted a parallax
         | 
         | Also, they didn't have a theory of gravity so the lack of a
         | sensation of moving with the earth and the fact that objects
         | fall straight down were not expected unless the earth was
         | stationary. There were also other more philosophical arguments
         | for geocentrism that were compelling given the cosmology and
         | science of the time.
         | 
         | > I thought this was a commonly known fact... evidently not.
         | 
         | Especially given how this is tied up with the common use of the
         | Galileo affair as an example of faith vs science despite faith
         | being common between Galileo and the Church Authorities to
         | which he ran afoul.
        
           | tzs wrote:
           | Galileo and the Church had the same fundamental belief: the
           | Universe was designed by an all-powerful God and that God
           | picked laws of physics that were mathematically elegant and
           | beautiful.
           | 
           | The Church was not nearly as closed-minded about heliocentric
           | theories in Galileo's time as is commonly thought. Their
           | position was that if empirical evidence clearly showed that
           | the universe did not work the way the Church thought that the
           | Bible said it worked then the Church must have misinterpreted
           | the Bible.
           | 
           | The problem with Galileo's heliocentric theory was that it
           | was empirically not correct. If some observation didn't fit
           | in with his theory and changing the theory to accommodate it
           | would make the theory ugly or inelegant Galileo would dismiss
           | that observation as observational error. God, he believed,
           | would not make an inelegant universe.
           | 
           | What got him in trouble with the Church wasn't that he
           | proposed a heliocentric theory. It was a combination of 5
           | things.
           | 
           | 1. His theory wasn't better than the best current geocentric
           | theories at actually predicting things.
           | 
           | 2. He had a very big ego.
           | 
           | 3. He was an asshole. If he saw you are a rival or as an
           | inferior he was intolerant and rude to you. Because of his
           | big ego, "inferior" included pretty much everybody.
           | 
           | 4. He was a celebrity. The rich and powerful would regularly
           | invite him to attend their gatherings.
           | 
           | 5. He had a terrible sense of politics. #4 regular brought
           | him in contact with people who could make his life miserable
           | if he annoyed them too much, and #2 and #3 ensured the he did
           | so.
        
             | geoduck14 wrote:
             | Oh, wow. This is pretty different from what I learned in
             | school. Where can I read more about this?
        
               | tzs wrote:
               | The article linked in this comment [1] is good.
               | 
               | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39582243
        
       | rurban wrote:
       | Arguably Aristotle made a worse error in his definition of
       | mechanics, particularly of motion. For him friction ruined
       | acceleration. "Continuation of motion depends on continued action
       | of a force".
        
         | canjobear wrote:
         | Aristotle's physics is correct for objects immersed in a fluid.
         | https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.4057
        
           | pdonis wrote:
           | More precisely, it is a good approximation for objects
           | immersed in a fluid that is sufficiently dense relative to
           | the density of the objects, on time scales long enough for
           | the effects of the fluid to be significant given the relative
           | densities. Rovelli fails to point out this critical factor,
           | although it is implicit in the equations he gives, and fails
           | to recognize that this factor invalidates his criticisms of
           | high school textbooks and teachers who, he claims, mislead
           | students by telling them that heavy and light objects fall
           | with the same acceleration.
           | 
           | In fact, what high school textbooks and teachers tell
           | students is that _if we neglect the effects of air_ , heavy
           | and light objects fall with the same acceleration. That's
           | what I was taught in high school, and it's perfectly correct.
           | (Note that this phrasing already eliminates cases like motion
           | in water, for which the Aristotelian model is a much better
           | approximation.) Some high school textbooks and teachers (like
           | the one I was fortunate enough to have) will even go on to
           | point out that, for a wide range of objects falling in air,
           | the effects of air are negligible for a significant enough
           | amount of time to make feasible, for example, the famous (but
           | probably apocryphal) experiment of Galileo dropping two
           | cannon balls of different weights from the top of the Leaning
           | Tower of Pisa and seeing them hit the ground at the same
           | time. And Rovelli's equations, when you plug in the relevant
           | numbers for such a case, say the same thing--but Rovelli
           | himself doesn't.
           | 
           | While this in itself does not invalidate the actual math in
           | the paper, which is fine, I found it very disappointing that
           | Rovelli went beyond what his math actually justifies in
           | making the criticisms of high school textbooks and teachers
           | in the paper. He should have known better.
        
         | lo_zamoyski wrote:
         | I will add as a footnote, and I know you likely did not mean
         | this, but it happens often enough, that one should distinguish
         | between Aristotle's scientific works and philosophic works.
         | That is, while his physics may be obsolete (though we should
         | show gratitude, as this was an early attempt from which our
         | later traditions drew), his metaphysics is not, for example.
        
           | pdonis wrote:
           | _> his metaphysics is not_
           | 
           | It isn't?
        
       | rs_rs_rs_rs_rs wrote:
       | And Kepler "took down" whatever Copernicus did.
        
       | herodotus wrote:
       | This article is wrong on many levels. A very good article to read
       | about this is '"Crisis" versus Aesthetic in the Copernican
       | Revolution' by Owen Gingerich
       | 
       | https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/4258973/Crisis%2...
        
         | wolverine876 wrote:
         | When they disagree, how do you know which article is accurate
         | about what? How do we know?
         | 
         | People say these things about almost every OP on HN; the claim
         | itself isn't a signal.
        
       | clausecker wrote:
       | Also worth reading on this subject: The great Ptolemaic smackdown
       | (https://tofspot.blogspot.com/2013/10/the-great-ptolemaic-
       | sma...).
        
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