[HN Gopher] The damage to lunar orbiting spacecraft caused by th...
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       The damage to lunar orbiting spacecraft caused by the ejecta of
       lunar landers
        
       Author : belter
       Score  : 75 points
       Date   : 2023-05-23 16:39 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (arxiv.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (arxiv.org)
        
       | moralestapia wrote:
       | Funny, didn't seem to be an issue when the landers came from a
       | different country ...
        
         | gs17 wrote:
         | The paper models a 40 t lander. That's roughly Blue Moon. The
         | sum of all Chinese probes landed on the moon is far less than
         | that, and I wouldn't be surprised if the sum of all Soviet Luna
         | landers was also less than that.
        
           | shagie wrote:
           | As noted, the paper is referring to a 40 t lander with a
           | single 67 kN thrust engine.
           | 
           | As some other data points, the Apollo landers were 16t (later
           | ones a bit more for an extended mission). The ascent module
           | had a dry mass of 2445 kg and had an additional 2376 kg of
           | propellant (5t).
           | 
           | The lander's descent propulsion system was capable of 10,500
           | lbf (47 kN) that could be throttled between 10% - 60% and
           | 100%. (1,050 lbf (4.7 kN) and 6,825 lbf (30.36 kN))
           | 
           | The ascent propulsion system was 3,500 lbf (16 kN).
        
             | gs17 wrote:
             | And Starship is already 100 t empty, although we don't have
             | exact numbers for anything Starship HLS really AFAIK.
        
         | flangola7 wrote:
         | Where did they say that the country was a factor?
        
       | ikekkdcjkfke wrote:
       | [flagged]
        
       | pmontra wrote:
       | So, land as few times as possible to carry what's needed to build
       | a landing platform?
       | 
       | Conversely, blowing an engine nearly horizontal to the surface is
       | going to shut off the Moon for a while. That's a weapon.
        
         | Etrnl_President wrote:
         | [dead]
        
         | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
         | > Conversely, blowing an engine nearly horizontal to the
         | surface is going to shut off the Moon for a while. That's a
         | weapon.
         | 
         | Is it in any way more practical weapon than just lobbing stuff?
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | Yes. You don't have to aim as you inundate an orbital plane
           | with debris.
        
             | masklinn wrote:
             | Good ol' kessler syndrome.
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _Good ol' kessler syndrome_
               | 
               | Kessler is a chain reaction. Destruction is caused by
               | secondary effects, _i.e._ bits of satellites the primary
               | projectile broke hitting targets. This is closer to an
               | area denial weapon: the destruction is caused directly by
               | the debris blown off the surface.
        
               | jerf wrote:
               | It is also not permanent. The orbits of the debris would
               | intersect the point where they depart, which is pretty
               | close to the engine. Basically the engine would be
               | hitting itself with everything it fired.
               | 
               | Therefore, the logical thing to do is to put it on the
               | correct side of a mountain, to shield the engine. But
               | that would also collect all the debris. So it would
               | generally only be in orbit for one orbit.
               | 
               | That makes it more targeted than some of the other
               | unfriendly things you can do in an airless planetary
               | environment:
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35862424
               | 
               | (To be honest, I think on any planetary body without an
               | atmosphere, long term everyone is going to _have_ to dig
               | in to the planet, and to a non-trivial degree, too, not
               | least of which is the complete indefensibility of surface
               | installations.)
        
               | snovv_crash wrote:
               | The expansion of the gas after it leaves the nozzle in
               | vacuum would give the particles an additional kick. I'm
               | not sure if their orbit would still intersect the engine
               | or effectively boost higher.
        
         | Delfwood wrote:
         | > blowing an engine nearly horizontal to the surface
         | 
         | I doubt that objects put in "orbit" with a periapsis of almost
         | zero (launched from the ground) would stay in flight for too
         | long.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | moffkalast wrote:
           | Well lunar gravity varies a huge amount by location, it may
           | be possible for some of it to somehow end up in actual
           | orbits, especially when it's intentionally done so.
        
             | Robotbeat wrote:
             | But by the same token, those orbits will be unstable and
             | the particles will quickly lithobrake.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | adastra22 wrote:
         | Or add an atmosphere to the moon. Even a tenuous one would
         | prevent this.
        
           | nomel wrote:
           | A discussion about that:
           | https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/12576/could-the-
           | mo...
        
           | belter wrote:
           | As mentioned in the link below, the Moon has a tiny
           | atmosphere.
        
       | tabtab wrote:
       | Small and medium meteorites smack into the moon's surface all the
       | time, being it has no atmosphere. I find it hard to believe that
       | human-built landers have nearly as much impact on low-orbit grit
       | than these meteor impacts.
        
         | dr_orpheus wrote:
         | Some of the data from LADEE and Lunar Dust Experiment (LDEX)
         | instrument might point to this being the case, but it was more
         | along the lines of human-built landers do not have nearly as
         | much of an impact as meteor showers themselves (not necessarily
         | the impact and resulting dust).
         | 
         | "if LADEE did encounter any lunar soil particles thrown up by
         | the final descent of Chang'e 3, they would have been lost in
         | the background of Geminid-produced events." [0]
         | 
         | That said, the Chang'e 3 is an order of magnitude (or close to
         | two) smaller than the lunar landers they are talking about in
         | the study. Also my own speculation is that the more continuous
         | thrust of a lander may get particles to higher velocities due
         | to the additional time for acceleration in the wake of the
         | thrust as compared to the single impact of the meteor.
         | 
         | I struggle to compare exactly how bad the lunar dust ejection
         | is though. Most Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) curves
         | are specified as a Flux by particle size (velocity is sort of
         | irrelevant, as you assume most of the velocity is from the
         | spcecraft itself and most hits are in the direction of travel
         | of spacecraft, the ram direction). My suspicion is that MMOD
         | flux in a LEO orbit is still going to be far far worse.
         | 
         | [0] https://www.nasa.gov/ames/ladee-project-scientist-update-
         | mil...
         | 
         | Edit: The paper talks about flux of particles 10 um and smaller
         | of about 10,000 impacts/m^2 during the passes. If we assume
         | that this is a sphere of iron (new MMOD fluxes are specified in
         | mass, not size) its ~5e-9g. In LEO at 400 km altitude (a little
         | above the ISS) the flux of particle this size is ~1000
         | impacts/m^2/year. But the paper says smaller than <10 um. And
         | at smaller masses the flux increases exponentially to 10^7
         | particles/m^2/year at a particle mass of 10^-18 g. So I believe
         | my suspicion is correct that most LEO orbits are still worse,
         | but its hard to compare apples to apples.
        
         | azernik wrote:
         | Landers don't impact hard - they fire rocket engines down,
         | which may be much more efficient at kicking up dust than an
         | impact.
         | 
         | (I still think this is overblowing the problem, because any
         | lander that causes this big of an ejecta problem would also
         | badly damage itself. All the designs will put a LOT of
         | engineering work into minimizing debris, eg Starship putting
         | separate landing engines high up on the vehicle.)
        
           | Sharlin wrote:
           | > because any lander that causes this big of an ejecta
           | problem would also badly damage itself
           | 
           | Not necessarily because the relative speeds will be very
           | slow. Not so in low lunar orbit, where an orbiting spacecraft
           | will _slam_ into the ejecta curtain at  >1 km/s.
        
             | azernik wrote:
             | The paper estimates that if there's LLO debris, it'll be
             | starting out with about 1.6km/s of surface-relative
             | velocity. Not something you want to get even a small
             | percentage of on your landing gear.
        
               | sneak wrote:
               | My first time encountering this acronym. I can't wait
               | until it's in common use and we have cities and
               | communication satellites in and around the moon.
        
               | cubefox wrote:
               | I guess you really like 1950s sci-fi.
        
               | Sharlin wrote:
               | Oh, that's a good point.
        
           | LorenPechtel wrote:
           | The ejecta would go out to the side and not harm the lander.
           | I'm just amazed that the ejecta is being thrown hard enough
           | to be a threat at orbital altitude.
        
             | adastra22 wrote:
             | It's a combination of the moon's orbital velocity being low
             | and the exhaust velocity being high.
        
             | azernik wrote:
             | That's a simplifying assumption (per the paper). In reality
             | it would be a distribution, with a lot _less_ going up than
             | to the sides.
             | 
             | Plus then you're dealing with damage to your hopefully-
             | smooth landing site.
        
           | icodestuff wrote:
           | That doesn't bode super well for Blue Origin's lander then,
           | since its engines are on the bottom.
        
             | azernik wrote:
             | They're not going to get far without some other method of
             | reducing ejecta, doing so is in the NASA requirements.
        
               | _joel wrote:
               | yet they've just been awarded a tender for HLS
        
         | sandworm101 wrote:
         | Impacts are impacts. Rockets are more like leaf blowers. Drop a
         | massive rock into a pile of leaves and few leaves even move.
         | Point a leaf blower at the pile and leaves will scatter
         | everywhere.
        
           | moffkalast wrote:
           | Yeah but throw a car sized boulder into a pile of leaves at a
           | few km/s and they'll scatter all the same.
        
         | fnordpiglet wrote:
         | I would expect it's the sustained thrust prior to landing and
         | at take off that is the difference.
        
       | uguuo_o wrote:
       | This problem has been known for a long while. The models used
       | here by Metzger have such a large uncertainty and only take into
       | account erosion due to shear. As soon as the erosion transitions
       | from shear-based (smooth sheets) to bulk (fluidized), none of the
       | data extends to that regime. A massive vehicle landing on the
       | moon will definitely cause fluidization. To estimate erosion and
       | ejecta needs far more detailed numerical methods [0].
       | 
       | [0]https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2021.29
        
       | jcims wrote:
       | Didn't we largely solve this with the sky crane for recent Mars
       | missions?
        
         | ericbarrett wrote:
         | Velocity required to reach a 50 km orbit* above the moon's
         | surface is only ~1.6 km/sec, and there's no air resistance to
         | slow dust particles kicked up by the craft.
         | 
         | For Mars, the orbital velocity is ~3.5 km/sec, thus requiring
         | almost 5x the energy for a given mass of detritus (E =
         | 1/2mv^2); and while its atmosphere isn't as thick as Earth's,
         | it'll definitely cause drag for particles going that fast.
         | 
         | * You don't quite need orbital velocity for a plume to get high
         | enough to disrupt an orbiting craft, but it's a handy reference
         | point.
        
         | masklinn wrote:
         | The lander size under consideration is about 40x that of the
         | Martian rover, I don't know that a sky crane would work as well
         | without a parachuting stage and atmosphere, and finally it
         | seems rather unhelpful for taking off.
        
           | inamberclad wrote:
           | I presume this is part of why SpaceX is planning to use
           | landing thrusters that are higher up the rocket.
        
             | moffkalast wrote:
             | Afaik that's mainly so the plume of razor sharp dust
             | doesn't tear their engines to billion tiny pieces. Unlike
             | the LEM, they won't be bringing a spare for liftoff.
        
       | _joel wrote:
       | I wonder how much Starship mitigates that by having the descent
       | propulsion controlled by the top thrusters. I'd assume they use
       | the same thrusters from take off too as we've seen the damage
       | Raptor 2's can do, let alone 3 and whatever comes after the
       | 350bar line.
       | 
       | Also, could regolith be bound or, well, packed down to build
       | pads?
        
       | WalterBright wrote:
       | Why wouldn't the orbit of the ejecta intersect with the surface,
       | since it is in free fall ever since leaving the surface?
        
         | CydeWeys wrote:
         | I think this is only in the immediate aftermath of a landing,
         | not permanent orbiting debris.
        
           | WalterBright wrote:
           | How is it going to get into an orbit that doesn't intersect
           | the moon? Any impulse from the surface will hit the surface
           | in one orbit.
        
             | zardo wrote:
             | The moon has large enough density variations that you can't
             | analyze low orbits as though it's just a point mass.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | Yes, I know about the masscons, but it seems highly
               | unlikely they'll be just at the right point. It's hard to
               | believe that any object given a single impulse at ground
               | level, in a vacuum, is not going to hit the moon again in
               | one orbit (unless it is given escape velocity).
               | 
               | Masscons did perturb the Apollo missions enough that they
               | had to switch to a doppler radio to navigate accurately.
        
             | PeterisP wrote:
             | The paper models an 'ejecta sheet' of particles that exceed
             | the escape velocity of the moon and thus aren't in orbit.
        
       | fnord77 wrote:
       | so, low lunar orbit/landings could be DOSed by a couple of well-
       | placed impacts of sufficient force?
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | areoform wrote:
       | The paper's author Dr. Phil Metzger is such a rockstar. He is The
       | Expert on the mechanics of soil erosion by rocket exhausts, and
       | writes a lot about the problem in an approachable way,
       | https://twitter.com/DrPhiltill/status/1658507854859337737
       | 
       | It turns out that the rate & mechanics of erosion by rocket
       | plumes is an unsolved problem that requires a new kind of model.
       | To quote from his thread,                   In the Apollo era the
       | thinking was that the rate of soil erosion is controlled by
       | conservation of momentum. It turns out this is wrong.
       | NASA researcher Leonard Roberts, the first person to research
       | this topic, hypothesized that the soil grains steal momentum from
       | the gas, which slows down the gas and thus reduces the erosion
       | rate. It was this feedback that determined the rate.
       | I argued some years ago this has to be wrong because the
       | particles achieve their high velocities far downstream of where
       | they are lifted off the surface, so momentum transfer does not
       | provide feedback to control the rate that grains are lifted.
       | 
       | He's going to be publishing his alternate model soon-ish. Can't
       | wait to see what he has come up with.
        
       | belter wrote:
       | "...This manuscript analyzes lunar lander soil erosion models and
       | trajectory models to calculate how much damage will occur to
       | spacecraft orbiting in the vicinity of the Moon. The soil erosion
       | models have considerable uncertainty due to gaps in our
       | understanding of the basic physics. The results for ~40 t landers
       | show that the Lunar Orbital Gateway will be impacted by 1000s to
       | 10,000s of particles per square meter but the particle sizes are
       | very small and the impact velocity is low so the damage will be
       | slight. However, a spacecraft in Low Lunar Orbit that happens to
       | pass through the ejecta sheet will sustain extensive damage with
       | hundreds of millions of impacts per square meter..."
        
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       (page generated 2023-05-23 23:00 UTC)