[HN Gopher] Greater than 90% chance of El Nino persisting into N...
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Greater than 90% chance of El Nino persisting into Northern
Hemisphere winter
Author : geox
Score : 43 points
Date : 2023-05-12 21:39 UTC (1 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)
| duluca wrote:
| What does this mean?
| yamazakiwi wrote:
| >The most recent IRI plume also indicates El Nino is likely to
| form during the May-July season and persist into the winter.
|
| I was confused by the post's title but it appears El Nino is
| 90% likely to increase temperatures this year from May -
| Winter. I don't know how different this is from a normal El
| Nino, nor do I know if 90% is higher or lower than average.
| ren_engineer wrote:
| from GPT4 based on the article and headline:
|
| El Nino is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming
| of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El
| Nino is the "warm phase" of a larger phenomenon called the El
| Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). La Nina, the "cool phase" of
| ENSO, is a pattern that describes the cooling of the same
| waters.
|
| The impact of El Nino persisting into the Northern Hemisphere
| winter can be significant and can vary by location:
|
| United States: The impacts of El Nino in the U.S. can vary, but
| it often results in warmer-than-normal winter temperatures in
| the Upper Midwest, the Ohio Valley, the Pacific Northwest, and
| Alaska. It can also cause wetter-than-normal conditions in the
| southern U.S., including Southern California, Texas, and
| Florida. This can lead to increased rain and snowfall, and
| potential flooding in these areas.
|
| Central and South America: Some areas may experience increased
| rainfall, which can lead to flooding and mudslides, while other
| areas may experience drier conditions leading to drought. It
| can also lead to a reduction in the upwelling of nutrient-rich
| water off the coast of South America, which can negatively
| impact fish populations and the fishing industry.
|
| Australia and Southeast Asia: These areas can experience drier-
| than-normal conditions, which can lead to drought and increased
| risk of wildfires.
|
| Global Impacts: El Nino can affect global climate patterns and
| can lead to an increase in global temperatures. It can also
| influence cyclone activity in both the Atlantic and Pacific
| Oceans. The Atlantic hurricane season tends to be quieter
| during El Nino years, while the Pacific hurricane season can be
| more active.
| nluken wrote:
| If the poster wanted to ask GPT4, don't you think they
| would've just asked GPT4?
| drusepth wrote:
| Not everyone has access to GPT4. Those with access may also
| not want to waste one of their 25 quota messages on
| summarizing a random article.
| nluken wrote:
| Fair enough. Unverified LLM output as a comment feels
| spammy to me even if it's correct (hence my knee jerk
| reaction), but I guess that sort of makes sense.
| soperj wrote:
| Not everyone pays for GPT4.
| mbgerring wrote:
| Too bad I would have to manually verify all of its claims
| myself before I could trust any of them!
| samcheng wrote:
| What El Nino means depends wildly on where you live.
|
| In California, particularly Southern California, an El Nino
| winter is more likely wetter than usual. The 1997-1998 winter
| comes to mind.
|
| These are all statistical predictions based on previous years,
| and any individual year can vary wildly from average. In
| addition, climate change makes historical data increasingly
| irrelevant. So, take any forecast of the weather six months
| into the future with a grain of salt!
| crayboff wrote:
| > National forecasters said on Thursday that the climate
| pattern system, known for bringing record rainfall in South
| America, more winter storms in the U.S West and South, and
| droughts in southern Asia, Indonesia and Australia, is expected
| to make its official return within a few months and has a
| strong chance of lasting the rest of the year. > > El Nino is a
| climate pattern that naturally occurs every two to seven years
| when ocean surface temperatures warm in the eastern Pacific.
|
| From: https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/el-nino-returns-2023/
| rufus_foreman wrote:
| "El Nino usually brings a quieter Atlantic hurricane season and
| more hurricane activity in the Pacific, while La Nina does the
| opposite -- a dynamic that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
| Administration has compared to a seesaw.
|
| El Nino's warmer waters can also push the Pacific jet stream
| south. When that happens, the NOAA says, "areas in the northern
| U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the
| U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than
| usual and have increased flooding.""
|
| -- https://www.npr.org/2023/05/03/1173734262/el-
| nino-2023-weath...
| thomascgalvin wrote:
| From CBS News[1] :
|
| > El Nino is a climate pattern that naturally occurs every two
| to seven years when ocean surface temperatures warm in the
| eastern Pacific.
|
| From the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
| (NOAA)[2]:
|
| > El Nino can affect our weather significantly. The warmer
| waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its
| neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S.
| and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S.
| Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual
| and have increased flooding.
|
| > El Nino also has a strong effect on marine life off the
| Pacific coast. During normal conditions, upwelling brings water
| from the depths to the surface; this water is cold and nutrient
| rich. During El Nino, upwelling weakens or stops altogether.
| Without the nutrients from the deep, there are fewer
| phytoplankton off the coast. This affects fish that eat
| phytoplankton and, in turn, affects everything that eats fish.
| The warmer waters can also bring tropical species, like
| yellowtail and albacore tuna, into areas that are normally too
| cold.
|
| As far as the Continental United States is concerned, this
| means the Northern half of the country will be warmer than
| usual, the Southern half of the country will be wetter than
| usual, and the Northeast in particular will be drier than
| usual.
|
| [1] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/el-nino-returns-2023/
|
| [2]https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html
| whynotkeithberg wrote:
| Here in Northern California it means we've had a lot more rain,
| and it's been much cooler than usual as well as getting snow to
| a much lower level than usual (around 800 feet). Normally it
| would have already been 100 or so for a month already. however,
| today is first day to really hit 90 and we just had some rain
| last week. Honestly, I'm hoping it means we have a more mild &
| wet summer but that I'm not sure of. Anything other than the
| fires would be nice though.
| neals wrote:
| Such a thing back when. They could just blame everything on El
| nino. Round two!
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(page generated 2023-05-12 23:00 UTC)