https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml bg image(/nwscwi/background-white.gif) skip navigation links www.nws.noaa.gov NOAA NWS logo National logo - Weather - Click Service Click to go to go to to the Climate the NOAA Prediction NWS home Center home page page Site Search [navbarleft] Home Map News Organization [ ] # [Go] Search the CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion [CPC search] [Go] EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION About Us issued by Our Mission CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS Who We Are 11 May 2023 ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Watch Contact Us CPC Information CPC Web Team Synopsis: A transition from ENSO-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Nino persisting FirstGov.gov is into the Northern Hemisphere winter. the U.S. Government's During April, above-average sea surface official Web temperatures (SSTs) expanded slightly westward portal to all to the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean Federal, state and [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Nino-3.4 index value local government was +0.4degC, with the easternmost Nino-3 and Web resources and Nino1+2 regions at +0.8degC and +2.7degC, services. respectively [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies continued to increase [Fig. 3], reflecting widespread positive temperature anomalies below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly during mid-April before switching back to easterly by the end of the month. Upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across most of the Pacific Ocean. Suppressed convection was observed over parts of Indonesia and anomalies weakened near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. While the warming near coastal South America remains striking, the basin-wide coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained consistent with ENSO-neutral. The most recent IRI plume also indicates El Nino is likely to form during the May-July season and persist into the winter [Fig. 6]. The combination of a forecasted third westerly wind event in mid-late May, and high levels of above-average oceanic heat content, means that a potentially significant El Nino is on the horizon. While at least a weak El Nino is likely, the range of possibilities at the end of the year (November-January) include a 80% chance of at least a moderate El Nino (Nino-3.4 >= 1.0degC) to a ~55% chance of a strong El Nino (Nino-3.4 >= 1.5degC). It is still possible the tropical atmosphere does not couple with the ocean, and El Nino fails to materialize (5-10% chance). In summary, a transition from ENSO-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Nino persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter [Fig. 7]. This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 June 2023. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov. Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College Park, Maryland 20740 ----------------------------------------------- NOAA/ National Disclaimer Privacy Weather Service Information Policy National Centers for Quality Freedom of Environmental Credits Information Prediction Glossary Act (FOIA) Climate Prediction About Us Center Career 5830 University Opportunities Research Court College Park, Maryland 20740 Page Author: Climate Prediction Center Internet Team Page last modified: