[HN Gopher] We have 48% chance of breaching 1.5degC target by 20...
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We have 48% chance of breaching 1.5degC target by 2026, says Met
Office
Author : kitkat_new
Score : 28 points
Date : 2022-05-10 19:46 UTC (3 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.newscientist.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.newscientist.com)
| penneyd wrote:
| I think we all know it's really 100%
| nickff wrote:
| Are you offering a bet? I'll take infinity-to-one odds!
|
| We should applaud any individual or organization offering
| probabilistic predictions, as the future is contingent.
| sharken wrote:
| Absolutely, Don't Look Up and all will be well.
|
| What is required is COVID level energy savings times two or
| three.
|
| But as long as we can't see the damage being done, there won't
| be sufficient support to change things in a meaningful way.
|
| That is human nature unfortunately.
| throwaway6532 wrote:
| My take on "Don't Look Up" was that it's actually a
| documentary, but it had to be made ahead of time because we
| won't be around to make it or see it after the fact. Don't
| forget to like and subscribe.
| fallingfrog wrote:
| It is, partly, we do tend to engage in short term thinking-
| but it's also perverse incentives.
| fhaller wrote:
| > What is required is COVID level energy savings times two or
| three.
|
| I wonder if we already saw some effects in Europe in
| 2021/2022. 2021 was a normal rain year for the first time in
| many years. The spring in 2022 is the first normal spring in
| many years: Temperatures rise gradually, as opposed to going
| from 0 to 25 degrees in a couple of days.
|
| I know that the sample is too small, but the difference is
| striking.
| PaulHoule wrote:
| Nah, you see "free speech" today is the right to disable the
| fire alarm in a burning theater, block the exits, commandeer
| the sound system to tell people to stay in their seats, ...
| penneyd wrote:
| We must protect the theater owner's potential popcorn
| profits at all costs.
| gruez wrote:
| I'm not seeing the analogy here. What are the policies that
| "free speech" advocate want that are equivalent to "disable
| the fire alarm in a burning theater, block the exits,
| commandeer the sound system to tell people to stay in their
| seats"?
| PaulHoule wrote:
| Global warming denial.
| gruez wrote:
| That doesn't answer the question. I want the specific
| policies and justification for why they fit those
| examples.
| HL33tibCe7 wrote:
| Based on what? I think I'll stick to what the Met Office says
| rather than what someone on HN "knows". It's alarming enough
| without embellishing it further.
|
| I see this often when climate change is discussed. People seem
| to casually throw science under the bus when it suits them. For
| example, people boldly proclaiming that X recent weather event
| was caused by climate change, as if it was a 100% proven fact.
| Yes, it may well have been, because climate change causes
| extreme weather. But it's impossible to tell that any
| particular event was caused by climate change; extreme events
| happened in the past plenty too. It's unscientific and
| unhelpful, and is ultimately driven by bias.
| throwaway6532 wrote:
| >I see this often when climate change is discussed. People
| seem to casually throw science under the bus when it suits
| them.
|
| I think it's because people see humanity casually throwing
| the planet under the bus when it suits them despite what the
| science says. Eventually you just kind of see the writing on
| the wall (or _feel_ like you do).
| gruez wrote:
| >Eventually you just kind of see the writing on the wall
| (or _feel_ like you do).
|
| I don't get it. You "see the writing on the wall" and
| then... throw science under the bus yourself as well?
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(page generated 2022-05-10 23:02 UTC)