https://www.newscientist.com/article/2319222-we-have-48-chance-of-breaching-1-5c-target-by-2026-says-met-office/ x NEWSLETTERS Sign up to read our regular email newsletters image/svg+xml Subscribe and save Menu * news * podcasts * video * technology * space * physics * health * more + mind + environment + crosswords * shop * courses * events * tours * jobs * SIGN UP TO THE DAILY NEWSLETTER Sign In Search [ ] We have 48% chance of breaching 1.5degC target by 2026, says Met Office The world could soon temporarily overshoot the 1.5degC warming threshold - showing how close we are coming to missing the Paris Agreement's target Environment 10 May 2022 By Adam Vaughan Greenhouse gas emissions have pushed us close to exceeding 1.5degC of global warming Shutterstock / grynold The UK Met Office has warned there is an almost 50-50 chance that the world will briefly overshoot its crucial 1.5degC climate change target within the next five years. The Paris Agreement set an aim to limit global warming to 1.5degC above pre-industrial levels, a threshold seen as vital for limiting the worst impacts of global warming on people and ecosystems. That aim would only be missed if a temperature rise is sustained over a couple of decades. The Met Office's climate models estimate there is a 48 per cent chance that the average global temperature of any year between 2022 and 2026 will be more than 1.5degC above pre-industrial levels. For the previous five-year period, 2017 to 2021, the chance was less than 10 per cent. Advertisement The prediction shows how close the world is to failing on its climate goals. "It's not a magic threshold, and things are not going to suddenly change," says Leon Hermanson at the Met Office, part of the team behind the analysis produced for the UN's World Meteorological Organization. "One year's exceedance doesn't mean anything; it just means that we're getting closer and it's a warning that we need to really double up on the efforts to cut carbon dioxide and reduce our use of fossil fuels." The reason the chance of temporarily hitting 1.5degC has increased is a combination of continued carbon emissions pushing Earth closer to the threshold, and new temperature data causing researchers to revise upwards their estimates of past warming since pre-industrial times. Read more: We can still avert climate catastrophe - but there is barely time As human-induced climate change has driven average temperatures up, the chance of natural cycles such as El Nino pushing us over 1.5degC have increased. El Nino can raise temperatures by 0.2 to 0.3degC, says Hermanson. Last month, a major report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said there are still pathways where emissions fall enough to stay under 1.5degC of warming. Whether that conclusion can be squared with the new study depends on the uncertainties in the models, including how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gases, says Graham Madge, a spokesperson for the Met Office. However, the IPCC report did acknowledge that those pathways only give a 50 per cent chance of staying under 1.5degC. Hermanson's report, Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, also finds there is a 93 per cent chance that one of the next five years will eclipse 2016 as the warmest on record. The analysis offers bad news for California, which is expected to continue the run of dry weather that has set the stage for forest fires in recent years. Hermanson says there is some good news for the Sahel region in North Africa, where rain-dependent subsistence farmers are expected to see wetter conditions than in the past 30 years. Sign up to our free Fix the Planet newsletter to get a dose of climate optimism delivered straight to your inbox, every Thursday More on these topics: * climate change * carbon emissions Advertisement Trending Latest Video Free 1. We have 48% chance of breaching 1.5degC target by 2026, says Met Office 2. Bats buzz like bees and hornets to scare off hungry owls 3. Feedback 4. How quickly can you catch covid-19 again if you have already had it? 5. Covid-19 news: Fourth vaccine may offer 'substantial' antibody boost 1. A tiny graphene device could detect neutrinos from the big bang 2. Rat testicle cells make sperm after being frozen for 23 years 3. Maxwell's demon experiment could be made real without breaking physics 4. Deadly 1918 flu pandemic may be source of modern milder seasonal virus 5. Covid-19 news: Fourth vaccine may offer 'substantial' antibody boost 1. VR racket uses compressed air to simulate hitting a ball 2. Chemical computer could be precursor for brain-computer interfaces 3. Our Time on Earth: Can creativity tackle the climate emergency? 4. Drone swarm avoids crashing in dense forest using new algorithm 5. Watch Rocket Lab catch a falling rocket with a helicopter 1. Rat testicle cells make sperm after being frozen for 23 years 2. Deadly 1918 flu pandemic may be source of modern milder seasonal virus 3. Covid-19 news: Fourth vaccine may offer 'substantial' antibody boost 4. Amazon deforestation in April was the worst in modern records 5. VR racket uses compressed air to simulate hitting a ball * Subscribe * View in the app * Buy In Print Advertisement MORE FROM NEW SCIENTIST India's extreme heatwaves show the need to adapt to a warming world Environment Amazon deforestation in April was the worst in modern records Environment Inside big tech's $925 million plan to speed up carbon removal Environment Children's lack of time in nature is 'appalling', says Jane Goodall Environment Sign up to our newsletters Enter your email address to get started [ ][Sign up] * Contact us * Help * About us * Privacy policy * Cookie policy * Terms & conditions * Advertise * Write for us * Events * Science jobs * Syndication * RSS feeds * Gift subscriptions * Student subscriptions * Group subscriptions Cookie Settings Get the app FOLLOW US (c) Copyright New Scientist Ltd. Back to top