[HN Gopher] Predicting the Timeline for Humanity to Reach Kardas...
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       Predicting the Timeline for Humanity to Reach Kardashev Type I
       Civilization
        
       Author : takiwatanga
       Score  : 3 points
       Date   : 2022-04-18 20:44 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (arxiv.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (arxiv.org)
        
       | takiwatanga wrote:
       | Abstract:
       | 
       | The level of technological development of any civilization can be
       | gaged in large part by the amount of energy they produce for
       | their use, but also encompasses that civilization's stewardship
       | of their home world.
       | 
       | Following the Kardashev definition, a Type I civilization is able
       | to store and use all the energy available on its planet.
       | 
       | In this study, we develop a model based on Carl Sagan's K formula
       | and use this model to analyze the consumption and energy supply
       | of the three most important energy sources: fossil fuels (e.g.,
       | coal, oil, natural gas, crude, NGL and feedstocks), nuclear
       | energy and renewable energy. We also consider environmental
       | limitations suggested by United Nations Framework Convention on
       | Climate Change, the International Energy Agency, and those
       | specific to our calculations to predict when humanity will reach
       | the level of a Kardashev scale Type I civilization.
       | 
       | Our findings suggest that the best estimate for this day will not
       | come until year 2371.
        
       | PaulHoule wrote:
       | The Kardashev classification is "not even wrong".
       | 
       | No civilization harvests 100% of the sunlight that falls on a
       | planet because you'd kill the planet. (Type I)
       | 
       | Nobody is going to build a Dyson sphere around the Sun (Type II)
       | because there is not enough mass even if you cut up the inner
       | planets.
       | 
       | (That's not to say you can't build something really big... Like a
       | habitat with more land area than the Earth.)
       | 
       | It is similarly unthinkable that you'd build a shell around a
       | galaxy. (Type III)
       | 
       | Because people are thinking about this they aren't thinking about
       | more interesting (if impractical) ideas like "Could a
       | civilization smooth out the energy output of a quasar and live
       | off it somehow?"
        
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       (page generated 2022-04-18 23:02 UTC)