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Physics > Physics and Society

arXiv:2204.07070 (physics)
[Submitted on 24 Mar 2022]

Title:Avoiding the Great Filter: Predicting the Timeline for Humanity
to Reach Kardashev Type I Civilization

Authors:Jonathan H. Jiang, Fuyang Feng, Philip E. Rosen, Kristen A.
Fahy, Antong Zhang, Piotr Obacz, Prithwis Das, Zong-Hong Zhu
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    Abstract: The level of technological development of any
    civilization can be gaged in large part by the amount of energy
    they produce for their use, but also encompasses that
    civilization's stewardship of their home world. Following the
    Kardashev definition, a Type I civilization is able to store and
    use all the energy available on its planet. In this study, we
    develop a model based on Carl Sagan's K formula and use this
    model to analyze the consumption and energy supply of the three
    most important energy sources: fossil fuels (e.g., coal, oil,
    natural gas, crude, NGL and feedstocks), nuclear energy and
    renewable energy. We also consider environmental limitations
    suggested by United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
    Change, the International Energy Agency, and those specific to
    our calculations to predict when humanity will reach the level of
    a Kardashev scale Type I civilization. Our findings suggest that
    the best estimate for this day will not come until year 2371.

Comments: 15 pages, 7 figures, submitted to journal galaxies,
          currently under peer-review
          Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph); Earth and Planetary
Subjects: Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP); Popular Physics
          (physics.pop-ph)
Cite as:  arXiv:2204.07070 [physics.soc-ph]
          (or arXiv:2204.07070v1 [physics.soc-ph] for this version)
          https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2204.07070
          Focus to learn more
          arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite
Related   https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202203.0310.v1
DOI:      Focus to learn more
          DOI(s) linking to related resources

Submission history

From: Jonathan Jiang [view email]
[v1] Thu, 24 Mar 2022 17:45:08 UTC (1,000 KB)
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