[HN Gopher] Uninhabitable places in 2100 (interactive map)
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Uninhabitable places in 2100 (interactive map)
Author : superphil0
Score : 92 points
Date : 2022-04-04 20:28 UTC (2 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (interaktiv.morgenpost.de)
(TXT) w3m dump (interaktiv.morgenpost.de)
| deanCommie wrote:
| Northern India seems to be the area of the map most affected by
| the combined factors specifically heat and water shortage. It's
| also, by my unscientific estimation home to hundreds of millions
| of people.
|
| What...are we going to do about this? This seems like it could
| shape up to be a humanitarian crisis of completely incomparable
| proportions. Could a million people die from one heatwave at some
| point this century?
| julienb_sea wrote:
| Well, any changes in sea level and habitability will be a mix
| of very gradual shift in tidal patterns and acute high-impact
| flooding events. Areas will not suddenly go from habitable to
| inhabitable all at once.
|
| In the US, it is very expensive and sometimes impossible to
| procure insurance for areas at extreme risk of wildfire or
| flooding. This is essentially the private market's assessment
| of risk based on location. Most people will leave if they are
| unable to reasonably insure their homes and property. Cities at
| very high risk will build seawalls and flood defenses in order
| to protect their taxpaying base. These are acute solutions to
| acute impacts.
|
| To preempt some replies, I am not denying the extreme scale of
| the challenge ahead and the broad impact, especially in less
| developed and highly dense nations. I believe it is an
| inevitable adjustment that societies will need to make.
| csdvrx wrote:
| > What...are we going to do about this? This seems like it
| could shape up to be a humanitarian crisis of completely
| incomparable proportions
|
| There are a lot of empty places on earth. Without looking far,
| just look at the midwest, Canada, Russia... There's even a
| whole continent that's currently frozen - Antarctica.
|
| If temperatures rise to the point of say making Antarctica
| livable, it would just be fair compensation to open it for
| settlement to every ecological migrant.
| tomrod wrote:
| Only if these places have the capital and resources to build.
|
| Water sourcing, soil generation, mining and extraction,
| energy generation, food production, and favorable trade
| conditions are bog standard needs.
|
| You can't just dump a million people somewhere after
| collecting them from off the street and hope for the best.
| csdvrx wrote:
| > You can't just dump a million people somewhere after
| collecting them from off the street and hope for the best.
|
| Indeed. But look at the time it takes to create new
| infrastructure (large building, hospitals...) in China when
| it's needed right now.
|
| I believe we have the technology to make large metropolis
| in a matter of a few semesters. Even assuming a total lack
| of improvements, a few years is all it should take to
| tackle the emergency even if we are barely prepared and
| organized.
|
| And if there's only one thing to trust, when push come to
| shove, humanity always accomplish miracles. Crisis unites:
| people forget about old feuds to care about each other.
| more_corn wrote:
| If anything you're underestimating the risk.
|
| Kim Stanley Robinson explodes the possibility in "Ministry for
| the Future" the most terrifying and troubling opening of any
| book I've ever read.
| PradeetPatel wrote:
| >What...are we going to do about this?
|
| For starters we can raise awareness about the potential
| ecological calamity, education and awareness goes a long way.
| Influencing key policymakers and stakeholders is the only
| sustainable way to ensure change...
| gmuslera wrote:
| Last year (not 2100) a town in Canada reached 49.5oC, in an event
| when a lot of places in US got temperatures 35+oC for a week or
| something like that. Siberia reached past June the 38oC mark.
| Those are the heatwaves that we are getting right now, not in 80
| years. Couple that with wet bulb conditions and we might have a
| lot of problems, this decade.
|
| You don't need a full year with the average day past the
| uninhabitable mark to be in trouble, you just need one day with
| conditions that you can't survive.
| Flankk wrote:
| Lytton burned to the ground the next day. Let's see how long
| the American egocentric approach lasts as more cities burn down
| with each passing summer. Keep topping up your SUV, it's not
| your problem.
| adamrezich wrote:
| anyone else have pretty bad We're All Gonna Die Fatigue at this
| point
| disordinary wrote:
| According to this map I have nothing to worry about (except for
| global economic collapse, famine, and war)
| more_corn wrote:
| Always look on the bright side.
| swader999 wrote:
| WW3 seems more pressing atm.
| more_corn wrote:
| And the good news is that nuclear winter will totally cancel
| out climate change. We couldn't have planned it better if we
| tried.
| alar44 wrote:
| Nearly unusable on my phone, Pixel 4.
| rbosinger wrote:
| Strange. Works really well on my Pixel 4a.
| more_corn wrote:
| Neat map
| cammikebrown wrote:
| Runs fine on my iPhone 12
| mark_l_watson wrote:
| I live in Arizona. Looks like Arizona and much of California is
| in the bad red zone. But, we are talking 2100, and, my 71st
| birthday is this year.
|
| BTW, the animation was fine on an iPad Pro.
| kennywinker wrote:
| We've known about global warming since the 1970s, when you were
| in your 20s. This situation is due to you, and your
| generation's inaction over the past 50 years.
|
| I'm happy you can shrug it off as an "I'll be gone by the time
| this is an issue" problem, but I hope none of your descendants
| ever see this comment.
| umanwizard wrote:
| People in their 20s now are fucking this up just as badly as
| they were in the 1970s. It's everyone's fault.
| kennywinker wrote:
| It'll be a long time before people who are in their 20s now
| have the kind of power that the boomers had and continue to
| have. Both in terms of personal wealth and consumption
| choices, in terms of political power (the average age in
| the senate is currently 64), and corporate power (the
| average CEO is 58).
|
| You can only hold people accountable for the things that
| they could have done. For someone in their early 70s that's
| about 26 times voting for federal representatives. For
| someone in their early 20s that's about 2 times.
|
| To say those two groups bear any kind of equal
| responsibility is just wrong.
| Ancalagon wrote:
| Its mainly a water security issue, which I think with de-sal
| plants, rationing, and careful preservation of resources during
| surplus years would make the issue solvable in the long run for
| urban/suburban dwellers. Farming, however, will need to move.
|
| There was an article a while back talking about this, usually
| these water insecurity issues in the southwest are attributable
| to the unsustainable farming practices that go on here (because
| the year round sun and temperatures make farming convenient-
| despite lack of rainfall).
| notch656a wrote:
| Precisely. Agriculture uses something like 74% of the water
| supply in Arizona. 'Unable to grow desert cabbage in 2100'
| isn't as catchy a headline, however.
| czbond wrote:
| Piggybacking your comment - I have been looking into personal
| water recycling systems as I live in the U.S. West that
| already has water issues due to growth.
|
| Example (not endorsement): https://www.hydraloop.com
| wongarsu wrote:
| Much of California is in the red zone not only for the year
| 2100 but also for the present, mostly due to water stress.
|
| But with enough will industrial nations can largely spend their
| way out of all of these problems. Water can be brought from far
| away or desalinated from the ocean (both happen in California),
| heat can be fought off by being indoors with AC, sea level rise
| can be resisted with dikes, levees and pumps. But a lot of
| places in Africa and Asia won't have the money to do that.
| kaetemi wrote:
| Ouch. Not even 1fps on my phone.
| LAC-Tech wrote:
| Such inefficient use of our CPU cycles is only bringing this
| bleak reality closer!
| [deleted]
| mike-cardwell wrote:
| Worked nicely using Firefox on my 11 year old Thinkpad running
| Debian 10, with only onboard Intel graphics
| keithnz wrote:
| super smooth on a PC
| losteric wrote:
| Which phone? Silky smooth on pixel 4 using Firefox
| ishtanbul wrote:
| would be nice to see what cities are covered by the hexagons. or
| get info about a spot by clicking it...
| czbond wrote:
| Would love to see that too.
| ahnick wrote:
| heck, just giving approximate long/lat coordinates would be a
| huge improvement.
| thriftwy wrote:
| The nice thing that we no longer have to care due to now-imminent
| nuclear war, have we?
| wongarsu wrote:
| I don't think nuclear war is imminent at all, but having one
| would certainly help us reach our climate goals and give us a
| couple decades more time. On the other hand rebuilding from a
| war isn't conducive to using carbon-neutral energy sources or
| the kinds of infrastructure projects necessary to deal with the
| global warming effects we have already committed to.
| rank0 wrote:
| Lol get a load of the "environmentalist" espousing the bright
| side of nuclear war.
| thriftwy wrote:
| It will help somebody else reach their climate goals. You and
| me: being dead at the time.
| czbond wrote:
| I think that was media war-mongering coupled with "Putin" big
| talk a la Trump style.
| irrational wrote:
| I don't get it. Is there some way to rotate the globe? I'm using
| Firefox on a MacBook Pro, is it the browser I am using?
| Cerium wrote:
| You have to click a button on the top right of the info panel
| to enable interactive globe mode.
| n_o_u wrote:
| scroll down for a while then a button to "explore the globe"
| becomes available.
| csdvrx wrote:
| It seems a bit biased to only list the places that will become
| uninhabitable due to say high temperature (the losses), without
| also listing the places that will become inhabitable thanks to
| the exact same thing (the gains)
|
| It's not clear to me that say an expansion of the Sahara or the
| desertic part of Australia won't be more than mitigated by the
| large amount of land currently covered by permafrost in Eurasia.
|
| A proper accounting of the phenomenon would show both, if only to
| refute my naive take.
| tomrod wrote:
| > inhabitable thanks to the exact same thing (the gains)
|
| A big gap will be soil quality, I reckon, as native
| microorganisms, fungi, and plants don't traverse north/south
| axes well
|
| But yeah, there might be water and amenable temperature in
| areas.
| eropple wrote:
| Given that few people currently live in those places _and_
| national borders are unlikely to go away in the next hundred
| years (while there 's a pretty clear path to ecofascist
| isolationism if we screw this up), perhaps "it's not optimistic
| enough" is a little bit of a reach of a criticism.
| csdvrx wrote:
| > perhaps "it's not optimistic enough" is a little bit of a
| reach of a criticism.
|
| It's not about optimism, but being factual.
|
| > national borders are unlikely to go away in the next
| hundred years
|
| That's a strange take, because an argument often raised is
| that ecological migrants must be accommodated if entire
| countries become uninhabitable.
|
| As borders are just imaginary lines in the ground, if there
| is indeed a climate emergency, I do not see why say people
| from the Indian subcontinent (shown preeminently in the
| interactive map) would have no rights to settle in the empty
| eurasian steppes.
|
| Human lives matter more than imaginary lines caused by
| historical circumstances.
| eropple wrote:
| _> an argument often raised is that ecological migrants
| must be accommodated if entire countries become
| uninhabitable_
|
| Yes. That is the argument. It is a just and reasonable
| argument. It does not mean that they _will_ be accomodated.
|
| _> if there is indeed a climate emergency, I do not see
| why say people from the Indian subcontinent, I do not see
| why say people from the Indian subcontinent (shown
| preeminently in the interactive map) would have no rights
| to settle in the empty eurasian steppes_
|
| You don't see why? OK. Tell me: who is going to roll tanks
| into Russia on their behalf when Russia says no?
|
| An ecologically perilous future is one of harder borders
| and angrier international affairs and is _yet another_
| reason to avert it instead of leaping for the quick
| dopamine pings of "well, actually".
| cwmoreiras wrote:
| Your idea that climate change is going to disappear borders
| is _very_ optimistic. It would be nice, but let 's not
| forget all of human history...
| losteric wrote:
| So Africa and Middle East regions, and India, Mexico, Indonesia
| are most at risk. Economic/climate immigration politics will get
| ugly
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(page generated 2022-04-04 23:02 UTC)