[HN Gopher] Why do we assume extraterrestrials might want to vis...
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       Why do we assume extraterrestrials might want to visit us?
        
       Author : laybak
       Score  : 109 points
       Date   : 2021-01-21 13:33 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.scientificamerican.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.scientificamerican.com)
        
       | karaterobot wrote:
       | I disagree with the author's statement that the Fermi paradox is
       | "pretentious" because it assumes we have cosmic significance. I
       | think a better word for that is "presumptuous", but pedantry
       | aside, I don't believe the Fermi paradox ever says anything about
       | what aliens think of humans.
       | 
       | It asks why there isn't more evidence of aliens anywhere we've
       | ever looked, not about why aliens haven't come to ask us for our
       | wisdom on philosophical matters. It's not asking why they haven't
       | contacted us, it's asking why we can't see them, or any evidence
       | of them. In other words, it's about the statistical likelihood of
       | seeing evidence that should be commonplace, given the age of the
       | universe.
       | 
       | He brings up the point that we might be too primitive to even
       | notice them. Fair enough, but you could just as easily say that
       | it's "pretentious" to say elves don't exist, because we might
       | just be too primitive and narrow-minded to see that there is
       | evidence of them everywhere. We have to start somewhere, and
       | we're doing our best.
       | 
       | The Fermi paradox may have a built in assumption that aliens
       | affect their world through technology, and even that they are
       | scientifically advanced and curious enough to send probes or
       | ships out to explore. An attack on that point would be fair. It's
       | possible that the answer to the paradox is that humans are
       | extremely rare in having developed any level of technology,
       | science, or curiosity. But, that seems more pretentious to me
       | than the alternative.
        
         | jjk166 wrote:
         | > It's not asking why they haven't contacted us, it's asking
         | why we can't see them
         | 
         | Space is vast. The strength of communication signals drops off
         | quickly with distance. All life is subject to the laws of
         | thermodynamics.
         | 
         | The Fermi paradox was proposed in 1950 during a time of rapid
         | growth and empire. At that time, radio communications were
         | powerful, and it seemed like they would only get more powerful
         | as our civilization advanced. But that's not what happened. The
         | key to better communication is not more power, but better noise
         | reduction. Since WW2, our radio signals have become weaker and
         | weaker and our receivers smaller as we transmit information
         | more efficiently. Ideally we would transmit signals with the
         | bare minimum amount of energy needed for them to be reliably
         | received by the intended receiver. Any civilization that wants
         | to not waste energy (read all of them) would do the same.
         | 
         | Because power drops off with distance, a more sensitive
         | receiver is required to receive a message at a greater distance
         | than the one intended, and this required improvement to
         | sensitivity increases rapidly with greater distance.
         | 
         | Your cellphone communicates with an antenna approximately 2
         | meters in length with a maximum range of about 70 kilometers.
         | An antenna of the same technological capability able to pick up
         | your cellphone signal at 1 lightyear would need to be 2900 km
         | in length. At 100 lightyears, you would need an antenna over
         | 37,000 km long.
         | 
         | If you can bounce a signal off satellites, you can communicate
         | with any point on earth - thus the most powerful radio
         | transmissions we need to send for our own utility need to be
         | detectable by a 4 meter dish 30000 km away in geostationary
         | orbit. To detect such a transmission at 1 lightyear requires a
         | receiver 203 km in diameter, at 100 lightyears a dish 2600 km
         | in diameter. Beyond 2000 light years, you need a dish larger
         | than Earth. If you need to communicate any further away than
         | that, you're using highly directional beamed communication
         | between planets which won't be detectable unless the receiver
         | just happens to also be along that beam line.
         | 
         | Thus to detect a radio signal from another civilization using a
         | telescope we could conceivably fit on our planet, one of the
         | following must be true: the transmission must be from a
         | relatively nearby world (0.16% of the milky way in range if
         | they are our technological peers, less if they are more
         | advanced than us), the transmission must use orders of
         | magnitude more power than is necessary for communication
         | (either they are using dramatically less advanced technology or
         | intentional broadcast), or we need to detect highly focused
         | beamed communication (either we get incredibly lucky or its an
         | intentional message directed at us). It would be presumptuous
         | to assume that aliens would set up a colony conveniently close
         | to us, that in our mere 100 years of radio use have already
         | greatly surpassed them, that they have maintained an active
         | beacon for long enough that we would happen to see it, or that
         | they would be trying to communicate with us specifically
         | (especially given that any civilization more than a few dozen
         | light years away would have no way of knowing that there is
         | intelligent life on Earth.
         | 
         | There are of course other means of detecting life besides radio
         | communication. Perhaps we may see pollutants in another world's
         | atmosphere - but we have only directly detected a few thousand
         | exoplanets thus far and observed the atmospheres of only a tiny
         | fraction of those. Perhaps we could detect megastructures like
         | dyson spheres - but to know what we are looking for requires a
         | lot of assumptions about how they are built and we don't even
         | know if they can be built. Really any sign of intelligence
         | detectable over interstellar distances other than radio waves
         | is purely speculative.
         | 
         | The assumption that evidence should be commonplace is poorly
         | founded. Unless the universe were teeming with civilizations at
         | a similar technology level to our own, we shouldn't expect to
         | see anything at all.
        
           | karaterobot wrote:
           | Upvoted for a thoughtful response, but I want to be clear
           | that I'm not saying the Fermi paradox is valid or even
           | useful. What I'm saying is that the author of the original
           | article argued that the paradox assumes humans are
           | fascinating to other species, when it makes no such
           | assumption. There may be many reasons to dismiss the Fermi
           | paraxox, but the one he leans on the most heavily is a non
           | sequitor.
        
             | jjk166 wrote:
             | But the whole point is that it does implicitly make that
             | assumption. The fermi paradox is a paradox if and only if
             | we would actually expect to see evidence of aliens. We
             | would only expect to see evidence of aliens if they are
             | actively trying to communicate with us. All other scenarios
             | would require us to be extremely lucky (in which case there
             | is no conflict with our lack of observation and thus no
             | paradox).
             | 
             | If we assume that humans are fascinating, the fermi paradox
             | is valid, if there is no interest in interacting with
             | humans than the fermi paradox is invalid. The discussion is
             | not a non-sequitur, it is the crux of the issue.
        
         | mxcrossb wrote:
         | I would also like to add that Fermi's paradox doesn't assume
         | humans are interesting, it just assumed probes are cheap. If
         | probes can easily and cheaply be made to cover the galaxy (and
         | we know that this is possible even without major
         | breakthroughs), aliens don't need to be excited about us to
         | visit the neighborhood.
        
           | jjk166 wrote:
           | If aliens sent a probe to earth 1 million years ago, we'd
           | have no way of knowing. Even if such a probe weren't
           | destroyed or buried over that immense time span, it could be
           | anywhere and we would have no way of knowing what to look
           | for. Even if we were probed just a few centuries ago we'd
           | likely be unaware - it would be quite serendipitous for an
           | alien civilization to just happen to launch a probe such that
           | it arrives within decades of us becoming capable of global
           | monitoring.
           | 
           | It's not enough to probe every planet in the galaxy, they
           | would have to repeatedly probe every planet in the galaxy
           | every few centuries for us to expect to find such a probe.
           | For how many millenia would you keep sending probes to the
           | same backwater before you knew all you needed to know?
        
         | klmadfejno wrote:
         | Hmm... If there was an earth 2, with the exact same properties,
         | and a population of human lookalikes at the exact same level of
         | tech as us, how far away would they need to be for us to have
         | not detected them by now assuming we rolled a 10 for our
         | perception check?
        
           | jjk166 wrote:
           | The Very Large Array (VLA) could pick up a broadcast from a
           | geostationary communications satellite at a distance of 0.14
           | lightyears. The planned Square Kilometer Array (SKA) would be
           | able to pick up the same signal within 500 lightyears. A
           | radio telescope with detectors on opposite sides of the earth
           | could pick such signals up from 2000 light years away. The
           | nearest 2000 lightyears make up 0.16% of the milky way
           | galaxy.
        
             | klmadfejno wrote:
             | Hmm that's an interesting way to think of it. At 0.16%,
             | assuming uniform distribution of detectable aliens and none
             | detected in that range, that would estimate an upper bound
             | of 625 alien species in the milky way. That does feel kind
             | of lonely.
        
               | jjk166 wrote:
               | That would be 625 species with radio technology at
               | approximately the same level as ours. Presumably as
               | technology progresses, their transmitters and receivers
               | improve whereas the distance over which they communicate
               | stays relatively constant and thus their output power
               | should decrease. It's also possible a more advanced
               | civilization uses other communication methods, for
               | example optical fiber might render satellite
               | communications totally obsolete.
               | 
               | Further the 0.16% is the fraction of the galactic disk
               | area, not stars. Also note that the 0.16% is the region
               | we could sweep with a theoretical telescope that we might
               | be able to build in the near future, not the region we've
               | actually surveyed thus far.
        
       | NamTaf wrote:
       | I'm increasingly of the completely unresearched, lay- and
       | baseless opinion that the great filter explanation has a fair bit
       | of merit. Not so much from the idea that civilisations create
       | their own destruction before they get off their rocks because of
       | a technological race condition, but rather that intelligence as
       | we see it is a knife-edge balancing act, and humankind is near to
       | the maxima of ability as a result of intelligence.
       | 
       | If humans were a little less intelligent or a little less social,
       | I don't think we'd have seen nearly the same the scientific
       | advancement we have achieved. We'd either be unable to come up
       | with the advancements, or too tribal to come together to benefit
       | from collaboration. This would have a knock-on effect and I don't
       | think we would've ended up in a situation where we're capable of
       | rocketing out of our gravity well.
       | 
       | Conversely, it wouldn't surprise me at all if a hypothetical
       | creature with more intelligence than us found itself too burdened
       | by its intelligence - by way of wrestling with the philosophical
       | challenges of existence - and ended up wiping itself out.
       | Alternatively, I could easily believe that the biological
       | foundations of what produces intellect quickly end up producing
       | side-effects that inhibit achieving outcomes.
       | 
       | For example, we all-too-often see incredibly bright people
       | struggle with depression, etc. due to their intellect. It feels
       | like intellect itself might lead to additional struggles that are
       | self-defeating. Moreover, neurodevelopmental conditions such as
       | ASD seem to correlate to some degree with intelligence, with more
       | extreme cases quickly become limiting. It sort of seems like
       | intellect itself could become too overwhelming and quickly begin
       | to put a handbrake on a species' development.
       | 
       | Additionally, human brains are incredibly expensive. We use about
       | 20% of our total energy intake to power them. These days that's
       | easy to handle, but a super-brain with even a bit higher energy
       | requirement might quickly cause a species to struggle to find
       | enough energy in its early era, before it's had a chance to
       | really develop all of that scientific advancement that leads the
       | surplus of to modern food production.
       | 
       | I mean, I am pretty much entirely talking out of my arse here and
       | have no formal or informal education by which to really lend any
       | credence to this hypothesis. Additionally, I totally realise that
       | evolutionary pressures would tend towards these outcomes over
       | time. However, evolution isn't exactly a precision tool, and so
       | it would not surprise me that among many rolls of the
       | 'intelligent life' dice, many burn themselves out due to not
       | striking that balance well enough.
       | 
       | I'd love to hear from anyone who has a more informed take on
       | this.
        
       | duopixel wrote:
       | > When weighing the risks involved in interactions with less-
       | developed cultures such as ours, these advanced civilizations may
       | choose to refrain from contact.
       | 
       | I think establishing communication with a more advanced
       | civilization would be deeply disrupting to our culture. We would
       | ascribe their cultural practices to their advancement, and get a
       | bunch of people doing "alien cargo culting". Imagine they were
       | strict vegetarians, or peaceful and kind meat eaters for that
       | matter. It would completely disrupt our own evolution by
       | injecting foreign memes into our culture.
       | 
       | You can also reverse the situation and suppose we are able to
       | visit an alien planet where we find a rudimentary civilization
       | which has customs that appear exotic to us. What would the
       | experts recommend? The cynic would say we would go at war with
       | them to take over their planet, but being realistic it is much
       | more advantageous to study them without interfering. I think the
       | evolution of conscious life in different conditions than our own
       | planet must be of tremendous interest to other conscious life.
        
         | zionic wrote:
         | The aliens could also have morals we find repulsive, for
         | example how would society react to aliens that said hitler was
         | right etc etc?
        
           | drummer wrote:
           | Read the book "Hitler's Table Talk" by Trevor Roper.
        
           | whatshisface wrote:
           | We can feel pretty safe that they would not say that, because
           | if they liked Hitler, they would be invading, not chatting
           | about history.
        
         | ardy42 wrote:
         | > Imagine they were strict vegetarians, or peaceful and kind
         | meat eaters for that matter. It would completely disrupt our
         | own evolution by injecting foreign memes into our culture.
         | 
         | Or imagine they were psychopathic sadists, like the Affront in
         | that Ian Banks novel.
        
         | coding123 wrote:
         | > "alien cargo culting"
         | 
         | As it is right now we're doing human cargo culting, most of
         | which is indoctrinating people into believing things that are
         | not true - sooo YMMV?
        
         | MajorBee wrote:
         | I have full faith (some pun intended) that as soon as an alien
         | civilization shows up (however slightly more advanced they
         | might apparently be), there will be entire religions based
         | around them as the gods. Hell, I'm sure there will be a few
         | existing ones that will claim these are the gods that they were
         | talking about all this while, the Great Reckoning is here, etc.
        
       | irrational wrote:
       | Why do we assume extraterrestrials can visit us? As far as we
       | know there is no way to travel even close to the speed of light,
       | much less faster. It simply takes too long to get anywhere.
        
       | marcus_holmes wrote:
       | I've always loved the thing about solar eclipses and auroras: in
       | order to see an aurora during an eclipse, the moon has to be the
       | exact same size as the sun (when viewed from the planet). Earth
       | has this (for a while at least - the moon is slowly moving away
       | from us), and it makes us special.
       | 
       | So if you want to find aliens, look during a solar eclipse. It's
       | a rare phenomenon and if there are alien tourists, they'll want
       | to see it.
        
         | xioxox wrote:
         | This is in Iain Banks's book Transition. Did anyone else come
         | up with this before him?
        
           | marcus_holmes wrote:
           | I was struggling to remember where I'd read it :) Thanks :)
           | 
           | No idea if it was his idea or not.
        
         | dimitrios1 wrote:
         | What makes you think it is a rare phenomenon to them, or that
         | they have the same conceptualizations of "needs and wants" as
         | we do? What if they view these events the same way we view
         | watching paint dry or grass grow? Just as we have to be careful
         | not to anthropomorphize animals and other species, we must also
         | not fall into the trap of anthropomorphizing alien species
         | until there's an actual encounter and we get to 'know' them,
         | once again, assuming their concept of 'knowing' even remotely
         | resembles ours.
         | 
         | For as far as we know, they've observed us, and have long moved
         | on, finding us entirely uninteresting, which seems to be the
         | one explanation we love to overlook, but given we are humans
         | with big egos, love to make ourselves out to be more important
         | than we actually are.
        
           | marcus_holmes wrote:
           | Sure, but where do you stop with this line of thinking? What
           | if the aliens are giant gas clouds that have trouble with the
           | whole idea of planets? What if the aliens are fluctuations in
           | plasma flows inside a star and don't realise there's anything
           | outside their environment?
           | 
           | As far as we know, there's nothing out there. As far as we
           | know, we're the most advanced life form in the entire
           | universe (for a given definition of "advanced"). As far as we
           | know, every exoplanet is teeming with civilisations. We know
           | nothing. So if we are engaged in speculating about aliens,
           | then speculating that they're probably like us, while
           | allowing that they may not be, seems to me to be the only
           | sensible thing to do.
        
           | dstick wrote:
           | Yeah if you park your UFO at the right angle, or even better,
           | keep it flying at the right speed and place you can have a
           | perpetual solar eclipse. Pretty mundane stuff when you aren't
           | planet bound.
        
           | mindcrime wrote:
           | _or that they have the same conceptualizations of "needs and
           | wants" as we do?_
           | 
           | Availability heuristic. We are the only example of "human
           | level or greater" intelligent life we know of, so we assign
           | "human like" needs and wants to these hypothesized aliens
           | because it's all we have. I think the key thing is just to
           | remember that this _is_ just a heuristic and not to be overly
           | rigid about it. Your point, IMO, absolutely stands that there
           | is no particular reason to assume that  "aliens" _must_ be
           | similar to us in this regard.
        
             | mxcrossb wrote:
             | Everyone always argues "the universe is so big there must
             | be aliens". But as soon as you ask why aliens don't act
             | like us, it becomes "the universe is too small to have that
             | kind"! I think the heuristic is just fine.
        
         | kace91 wrote:
         | Pretty specist to assume they have eyes :)
        
           | marcus_holmes wrote:
           | True. Or that their eyes see the same spectrum as ours.
           | 
           | I wonder if it's even more spectacular in different
           | wavelengths?
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | adamisom wrote:
       | It only takes one.
       | 
       | If you assume that the real hurdle is there being any aliens,
       | such that many advanced alien species are almost as likely to
       | exist as one, then indeed the majority may not want to study us
       | 'ants'... but it only takes one.
       | 
       | A similar argument applies to many other things, like nuclear
       | weapons, or any other future superweapons.
       | 
       | It also applies to worries around AGI or artificial general
       | intelligence. The majority of research facilities may sign on to
       | and implement very good ethics around releasing the software, or
       | halting it if X happens. But it only takes one.
        
       | gwbas1c wrote:
       | > Why do we assume extraterrestrials might want to visit us?
       | 
       | Because it makes good sci-fi!
       | 
       | But in all seriousness, we have so little tangible evidence of
       | extraterrestrial life that there's no way to answer this
       | question. It always comes down to opinion and speculation.
        
       | karteum wrote:
       | There are also aspects that should be considered in my opinion
       | 
       | 1deg/ individual intelligence and technological innovation is not
       | necessary an ultimate achivement that enables competitive
       | advantage : human beings may be individually smart (compared to
       | some other species) yet the collective intelligence of humanity
       | is rather poor (which translates to the unability to solve
       | collective problems such as sustainable management of our finite
       | natural resources (e.g. oil) or of the consequences of our
       | activity (e.g. biodiversity fall and climate change)). I suspect
       | humanity will experience in a few decades a major regression (if
       | not extinction) which could be interpreted as natural selection
       | because of lack of collective intelligence. The same could also
       | happen to other civilizations and maybe technological innovation
       | the way we see it today is not necessary a ultimate achievement !
       | 
       | 2deg/ even if some other intelligent species would exist, maybe
       | they would not have the same need to communicate, the same need
       | or will to travel, the same need or will to innovate, etc.
       | 
       | 3deg/ even if some civilizations could be infinitely smart both
       | individually and collectively and have enough genius to implement
       | all engineering allowed by the laws of physics and have the will
       | to implement it, maybe the laws of physics together with the
       | nature/amount of natural resources on a typical planet do not
       | enable such intergalactic space travels ! Sure, we were able to
       | fly to the moon and we can make 5nm transistors while our
       | ancestors would never have believed it could be done and it might
       | make us dream that "everything is possible because genius and
       | engineering have no limits", yet I would still be careful and
       | such claims sounds more like religious faith than science. People
       | need to understand the enormous distances we are talking about
       | here and we need to remain humble that maybe it is and will
       | remain forever an obstacle :)
        
         | AnIdiotOnTheNet wrote:
         | > even if some other intelligent species would exist, maybe
         | they would not have the same need to communicate, the same need
         | or will to travel, the same need or will to innovate, etc.
         | 
         | I think this is unlikely. It seems to me that some amount of
         | curiosity would be a prerequisite for being able to make
         | discoveries that lead to technological progress. Although I
         | suppose it is possible such progress could be made through some
         | kind of evolutionary mechanism as opposed to individual
         | intellect.
        
           | whatshisface wrote:
           | But why would an intelligent species have to make any
           | discoveries, or progress in any way? Maybe they spend all of
           | their intelligence designing birdsongs, until some random
           | natural event drives them extinct. Far from an alien
           | psychology, humanity would be like that if you took away a
           | fraction of the people with the greatest curiosity.
        
             | tachyonbeam wrote:
             | The way I see it, our curiosity and desire to explore is a
             | reflection through our instincts of basic biological
             | imperatives. Even bacteria "want" to explore, find new
             | territories where there might be undiscovered resources,
             | etc. Exploration is what helps a species survive long-term.
             | We're smart, but the things we instinctively want are still
             | a reflection of the basic things that any life form wants
             | and needs.
             | 
             | I don't think you could have a super-advanced species that
             | didn't want to explore, reproduce, wasn't curious. You
             | couldn't have an advanced species that just went about
             | doing the same thing forever. They wouldn't be an advanced
             | species. They'd be some dead branch of the evolutionary
             | tree that got pruned long ago, in all likelihood.
             | Intelligence is fundamentally curious, just like lifeforms,
             | even bacteria, if you squint hard enough, are "curious".
        
               | whatshisface wrote:
               | Bacteria don't want to explore, they float around, and
               | occasionally do gradient climbing to navigate to good
               | chemicals. That's an example of a pro-survival technique
               | that works very well, but is not going to lead to
               | anything better. Every living thing on Earth except for
               | people is an example of a living thing with some degree
               | of intelligence, or at least beneficial control, but that
               | does not have scientific progress.
        
               | tachyonbeam wrote:
               | Amoebas can propel themselves, and if you drop them in
               | one corner of a lake, I can guarantee you that they will
               | explore it to find food and reproduce.
               | 
               | Bacteria don't have scientific progress, but because they
               | reproduce rapidly, they also evolve very fast compared to
               | us. Some of them can even exchange genetic material with
               | each other (!). This is a way for them to exchange
               | "knowledge" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilus).
               | 
               | I can guarantee you that if you observed amoebas under a
               | microscope for a while, you would realize that these are
               | more sophisticated little machines than you think.
               | 
               | > "largest genomes belongs to a very small creature,
               | Amoeba dubia. This protozoan genome has 670 billion units
               | of DNA, or base pairs. The genome of a cousin, Amoeba
               | proteus, has a mere 290 billion base pairs, making it 100
               | times larger than the human genome."
        
             | f6v wrote:
             | > But why would an intelligent species have to make any
             | discoveries
             | 
             | Intelligence seems to be rather expensive thing to evolve
             | and maintain. In biology, something that's expensive has to
             | translate to fitness advantage. Human mind gave humans an
             | ultimate advantage when it comes to survival. All doom and
             | gloom aside, we're the only species that could potentially
             | survive total annihilation of the planet. It's not
             | inconceivable that people could design the technology to
             | sustain a civilization in space.
             | 
             | That's why I think any intelligent species use their mind
             | to build things and expand their knowledge about the
             | universe. That's the "purpose" of having intelligence.
        
             | klmadfejno wrote:
             | Because discoveries are useful. If the collective reason
             | for your species' existence is writing birdsong, you're
             | going to want agriculture to ensure people can eat,
             | medicine to prevent them from dying, and electricity to
             | make rad synthetic birdsong dubstep remixes. Tech solves
             | problems, and everyone has problems. Doesn't mean you need
             | to leave the solar system though.
        
               | whatshisface wrote:
               | How is this hypothetical species going to discover any
               | medicine if they spend all their time writing birdsongs?
               | Any individual with a slightly lower proclivity to write
               | birdsongs will be evicted from the gene pool with great
               | prejudice, so there is no chance that anyone will ever be
               | born with the desire to spend a whole hour thinking about
               | something else. Again, if this seems unrealistic, just
               | imagine humanity with the mean "art vs. programming"
               | balance of desires shifted a little bit towards art.
               | There are many people who do not care at all about doing
               | the kinds of things that lead to solving problems, and it
               | is easy to imagine a species that is just them.
        
               | klmadfejno wrote:
               | Because at some point you run out of food, and if you
               | write birdsong in spite of that you just die out. It may
               | be possible but its not much an effective long term
               | strategy. Too stupid to survive doesn't earn a lot of
               | marks towards being an intelligent species.
               | 
               | Individuals with a desire to improve their survivability
               | being evicted from the gene pool is the opposite of how
               | natural selection works. Humans would still invent things
               | even if painting gave everyone erotic pleasure.
        
               | whatshisface wrote:
               | I am suggesting that intelligent populations may often
               | die out. Evolution doesn't look ahead to avoid dead ends.
        
               | klmadfejno wrote:
               | An I'm suggesting that a population that dies out before
               | accomplishing any intellectual achievements wasn't all
               | that intelligent or make sense as a species. How a
               | species would appear that decides to forego its basic
               | needs in favor of making art is beyond me.
               | 
               | A species that spends its time making birdsongs is
               | effectively just a dumber version of birds.
               | 
               | > Evolution doesn't look ahead to avoid dead ends.
               | 
               | It does though, by many metrics. Many steps of evolution
               | are not just the outright outcomes, but traits that make
               | it easier for competitive adaptations to develop later
               | on. That is, natural selection works on multiple levels
               | of derivatives of fitness scores. Humanity's intelligence
               | is built on top of everything else, and is often
               | overruled, by base survival instincts.
        
         | dcolkitt wrote:
         | > even if some other intelligent species would exist, maybe
         | they would not have the same need to communicate, the same need
         | or will to travel, the same need or will to innovate, etc.
         | 
         | This is true. But even if just a small fraction of
         | civilizations engaged in interstellar expansion, they'd quickly
         | subsume the galaxy on geological timescales. Darwin applies
         | just as much across the stars as it does in a tide pool. As
         | long as there's even a small amount of competition, it will
         | push every player to aggressively expand.
         | 
         | The only way out is either 1) technological civilization almost
         | never evolve anywhere. 2) Virtually every technological
         | civilization winds up eschewing interstellar expansion. Or 3) a
         | single player previously won the game, and used its dominant
         | position to benevolently stop the game.
        
           | SV_BubbleTime wrote:
           | > and used its dominant position to benevolently stop the
           | game.
           | 
           | Why benevolently? Why not maliciously?
        
         | fiftyfifty wrote:
         | I think the assumption by many that we are being visited by
         | aliens was based on the idea that the universe must be just
         | teeming with intelligent life. Over time we are gathering more
         | and more data that shows that may just not be the case. As
         | we've built better and better telescopes we've found no
         | evidence of Type III Civilizations. We've intercepted no
         | interstellar communications or even errant radio waves. As we
         | learn more about other stars we find that many of them probably
         | create hostile environments for life on nearby planets due to
         | solar activity. On top of that a number of studies have come
         | out recently like these two:
         | 
         | https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-00057-8
         | 
         | https://phys.org/news/2018-06-advanced-civilization-universe...
         | 
         | that, through the use of models and simulations, come to the
         | conclusion that we are dang lucky to have evolved on the Earth
         | at all.
         | 
         | While I don't know that I was ever a believer in the Earth
         | being visited by ETs, I always thought that we wound find
         | evidence of intelligent life elsewhere in the galaxy any day
         | now. For the reasons above, I'm less and less convinced of that
         | with every passing year.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | whatshisface wrote:
         | > _maybe the laws of physics together with the nature /amount
         | of natural resources on a typical planet do not enable such
         | intergalactic space travels_
         | 
         | This is already known not to be the case, the Breakthrough
         | Starshot project is expensive, but merely expensive.
        
         | fossuser wrote:
         | AGI seems like a likely option and under discussed for what
         | could be met first.
         | 
         | It'd be easier for it to travel great distances than organic
         | life, it'd be possible for a variety of organic life to arrive
         | at creating it, it may be hard for organic life to solve the
         | control problem to limit it, etc.
        
         | lisper wrote:
         | It is important to remember when analyzing such things that
         | evolution does not optimize the reproductive fitness of
         | organisms, it optimizes the reproductive fitness of genes.
         | Organisms are a side-effect, a result of the fact that
         | cooperation often provides a competitive advantage [1]. But
         | evolution neither knows nor cares about civilization. It just
         | so happens that, at the moment here on earth, genes that build
         | brains that build civilizations reproduce better than genes
         | that don't. But that has not always been the case, and there is
         | no guarantee that it will continue to be the case. It is
         | entirely possible that this whole civilization thing is just a
         | transient.
         | 
         | IMHO a prerequisite to the survival of civilization is the
         | recognition that the interests of civilizations can be, and
         | often are, _at odds_ with the interests of genes, and so we are
         | necessarily in active conflict with the genes that made us. The
         | best example of this is birth control, which is an obvious
         | existential threat to the reproductive fitness of our genes. So
         | genes that build brains that have an instinctive revulsion to
         | birth control will, all else being equal, reproduce better than
         | genes that build brains that don 't have this revulsion. In the
         | absence of active intervention, the result will be
         | overpopulation.
         | 
         | For a civilization to succeed long-term it has to recognize
         | that it is necessarily in conflict with the genes that produced
         | its individual members, because otherwise the genes will win.
         | 
         | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Evolution_of_Cooperation
        
           | blueblisters wrote:
           | Isn't all of modern healthcare an example of civilization
           | being in active conflict with evolution? If "weaker" genes
           | are not eliminated as often, we have effectively ruled out
           | natural selection of survivalist traits.
        
           | whatshisface wrote:
           | I'm not sure if birth control is the greatest example of our
           | genes being the enemy. Birth control is popular because
           | raising a child is horrifyingly net-negative in the 21st
           | century (unlike most prior centuries, where it made you
           | richer and secured your future), and also because birth is
           | incredibly painful for humans specifically. Both of those are
           | unpleasant facts, and many people would consider our
           | civilization better if they changed.
        
             | lisper wrote:
             | Birth control is not an example of genes being our enemy,
             | it is an example of us being our genes' enemy.
             | 
             | And "us" is not really the right way to characterize this
             | because our genes are part of "us". It is more like "the
             | part of us that sees value in technological civilization in
             | its own right" vs "the part of us that sees value in being
             | the biological creatures we call humans". The fact that
             | these concepts don't have names is one indication of just
             | how far off the radar this idea is.
        
         | bryananderson wrote:
         | > human beings may be individually smart (compared to some
         | other species) yet the collective intelligence of humanity is
         | rather poor (which translates to the unability to solve
         | collective problems such as sustainable management of our
         | finite natural resources (e.g. oil) or of the consequences of
         | our activity (e.g. biodiversity fall and climate change)).
         | 
         | This makes a big assumption: that our inability to solve these
         | problems is rooted in a lack of intelligence (collectively or
         | individually). I don't think that's the case at all. Solutions
         | to these problems are widely known, and most educated people
         | support them, at least in theory.
         | 
         | The problem isn't with our intelligence, it's with our
         | incentives. Climate change is a tragedy of the commons (as are
         | other environmental degradation issues, such as loss of
         | biodiversity). Each of us would benefit if _everyone_
         | cooperated (a nice environment for each of us), but each of us
         | also benefits when we _individually_ defect (cheaper energy for
         | our various needs). As a result, we predictably end up with the
         | suboptimal outcome of (almost-)everybody-defects.
         | 
         | What's the way out of the dilemma? It's clearly not a matter of
         | getting smarter. I don't think it's an issue we can solve with
         | moral pleading either: we've been trying that for decades. But
         | what if we could change the game and remove the incentives to
         | defect? * We could implement a carbon tax, incentivizing firms
         | and consumers to use carbon-neural energy sources. * We could
         | subsidize clean energy, incentivizing the same. * We could
         | invest as much money as possible in reducing the cost of clean
         | energy sources, eventually removing the need for ongoing
         | tax/subsidy policies.
         | 
         | If non-polluting energy sources are cheaper, more widely
         | available, and easier to use than polluting sources, no one
         | would ever choose the latter. No heightened intelligence
         | required.
        
       | 3395810 wrote:
       | I assume that any culture that is capable of developing
       | interstellar flight will have a high degree of curiosity. We
       | humans study even the most "mundane" life forms on our planet and
       | try to study the rest of the universe outside of our planet. That
       | is why I think extraterrestrials would want to make contact with
       | us.
       | 
       | > We may be a phenomenon as uninteresting to them as ants are to
       | us; after all, when we're walking down the sidewalk we rarely if
       | ever examine every ant along our path.
       | 
       | However, there are people who do study ants.
       | 
       | I think Roadside Picnic is a good novel but not indicative of how
       | extraterrestrials who are capable of visiting Earth would
       | actually behave.
        
         | ojosilva wrote:
         | Interstellar flight alone is not of interest. OTOH, it would
         | allow earthlings to become visitors.
         | 
         | Commerce. If we use our experience as a basis here, this is the
         | #1 interest that would lure alien explorers to this neck of the
         | woods. Commerce is what got us to cross the Atlantic: looking
         | for routes, buyers, suppliers, riches and land. All science-
         | first approach ("they should come to study us") is so 20th
         | century utopism.
         | 
         | But without really being sure what matters to aliens the most,
         | commerce, tourism or science, makes it hard to lure them. We
         | sent Voyager with curiosity in mind: songs, poems, language
         | samples, pictures... But we could have sent instead a
         | list/sample of our prime minerals, water supplies, preferred
         | payment methods and our "1-800 number" for contact. Scientists
         | can be so un-enterpreneurial sometimes!
         | 
         | Now, what then could get their attention and provoke a visit?
         | 
         | Become a menace.
         | 
         | Without really being sure what matters to aliens makes it tough
         | to envision a way to get them really interested on the 3rd rock
         | enough to launch a mission or send signals. So the most
         | effective (and reckless...) is to become a menace, or at least
         | a nuisance, to them. Fiction has played around with that idea,
         | nuclear capability being the trigger that got them to notice or
         | outraged enough to wipe us out...
         | 
         | Let's say we develop a gravitational wave cannon capable of
         | making Sirius shoot over as a billiard ball into Procyon. Oh,
         | now that would get their attention!
        
           | 3395810 wrote:
           | Earth isn't really unique in terms of resources. It wouldn't
           | really make sense to travel to another solar system just to
           | get resource that you could obtain in your own. Even if they
           | lack something in their own solar system, they could get it
           | from other uninhabited solar systems without needing to trade
           | locals. Ideas are what could be valuable in trade. If it is
           | them visiting us rather than the other way around odds are
           | they have more advanced technology than us so that isn't
           | something they would need to trade. Our culture, what we sent
           | on Voyaer, seems like it would be of the most interest to
           | them. They might have entirely different senses than us
           | (lacking sight, seeing different frequnecies, hearing
           | different frequencies) that would make our "culture"
           | something that wouldn't be enjoyed directly by them. Really
           | as I see it, scientific interest is the one thing that would
           | make them want to contact us.
        
       | jamesmishra wrote:
       | I think multicellular life on Earth has likely created complex
       | molecules and other interesting matter that doesn't exist
       | anywhere else in the galaxy. I imagine an alien race would be
       | interested in discovering what is out there--but they may not
       | recognize human life as being any more intelligent than a grove
       | of trees.
        
         | cwkoss wrote:
         | I would expect highly advanced civilizations would have
         | nanotechnology that makes complex chemical synthesis fairly
         | trivial.
        
           | jamesmishra wrote:
           | Sure, but they still wouldn't even be able to imagine some of
           | the things that they could find in a glass of milk.
           | 
           | Presumably a spacefaring civilization would be limited by
           | discovery, not production.
        
       | jonnypotty wrote:
       | We went to visit the whales. We did not try and find out who
       | their leader was, learn their language or attempt to introduce
       | ourselves before habitually invading their environment and
       | studying them. our problem with thinking about et is that we
       | don't actually think seriously, we just start imagining star
       | trek.
        
       | johannes1234321 wrote:
       | The question is, I guess, whether we are the first species they
       | find inhabiting a planet in some form of intelligent life, or
       | whether we are Species 5618. Species 5618 is interesting to few
       | experts only.
        
       | pre wrote:
       | Fermi's paradox says nothing about how likely aliens are to visit
       | earth. It notes that we can't see any sign of them when we look
       | into the sky.
       | 
       | Perhaps the humans don't care about the ants, but the ants damn
       | well can see signs of human activity.
        
         | notahacker wrote:
         | Would an intelligent ant species living on an uninhabited
         | island identify global warming and driftwood as conclusive
         | evidence of the existence of a higher intelligence causing it?
        
       | Blikkentrekker wrote:
       | > _Fermi's paradox is pretentious in that it assumes we humans
       | have some sort of cosmic significance._
       | 
       | No, it assumes that of all the incalculable advanced
       | civilizations it hypothesizes to exist, at least some would be
       | interested, not all, not the majority, not a significant number,
       | but at least one in a million.
        
         | tlb wrote:
         | But if alien life is common, a reasonably likely outcome is
         | that one species gains dominance and eliminates all other
         | potential threats in the galaxy. In that case, we wouldn't see
         | visitors if just that one species was incurious.
        
         | vidarh wrote:
         | It doesn't even assume that. There are a whole lot of scenarios
         | where we'd still assume we'd spot signs of aliens even if
         | they're all totally disinterested in us.
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | The universe is too big for that. Civilizations just 150
           | light years away could not spot us by any means we can even
           | imagine.
        
       | rindalir wrote:
       | Maybe it's not a technological problem or a sheer-numbers problem
       | of why we haven't been "visited". Maybe, after billions of years,
       | aliens have gotten so weary and emotionally drained from watching
       | primitive species (some with potential) torture and kill one
       | another into extinction, and now they just are not even looking.
       | "Call us if you grow up".
        
       | grenoire wrote:
       | Obligatory "They're Made out of Meat":
       | https://www.mit.edu/people/dpolicar/writing/prose/text/think...
       | 
       | A brilliant sci-fi short story about not necessarily how we're
       | uninteresting, but instead a bit _too_ interesting.
        
         | itronitron wrote:
         | Or maybe alien civilizations stopped visiting Earth after the
         | dinosaurs got wiped out because their convenient big body small
         | brain meat supply got wiped out. Would be interesting to find
         | out if the same aliens seeded multiple systems with dinosaurs.
        
       | kwdc wrote:
       | When a species finally figures out how to create a suitable
       | container to put on the top of a pile of explosives in order to
       | travel I think they are worth further investigation.
       | 
       | That and our current ability to create nuclear weapons and then
       | (mostly) not use them. For now at least. This skill hasn't been
       | mastered yet. But we're still young.
       | 
       | Worth taking a look at.
        
       | jdlyga wrote:
       | Well, if we saw extraterrestrials we'd probably want to visit
       | too. Or at least observe them. Prime directive.
        
       | imglorp wrote:
       | The hard fact is there are no shortcuts to interstellar travel,
       | barring new physics. Any trip will consume vast amounts of energy
       | and it will take decades if not centuries or longer. Advanced
       | tech may reduce the expense to your civilization but the fact
       | won't change.
       | 
       | While all life, ants or not, may be universally worthy of study,
       | is it worth that much sacrifice? Also, if the ants talk,
       | exchanging messages would make more sense for study.
        
         | cnity wrote:
         | > barring new physics
         | 
         | Our understanding of physics changes constantly!
        
           | bbarnett wrote:
           | Indeed.
           | 
           | So many seem to exude the concept that "today we know
           | precisely how the universe works".
           | 
           | Would one insist that Newtonian physics was the Only Way to
           | Think of Things, prior to Einsteinian? While the speed of
           | light may remain a barrier, it may not. Presuming the ability
           | to be reached by a society which likely possesses scientific
           | knowledge beyond ours, is to be a Roman, and presume the sun
           | travels around the Earth, that the 4 aethers exist, and
           | become angered otherwise.
        
             | simiones wrote:
             | The problem with this train of thought is that it fails to
             | account for the observations so far. We _know_ that the
             | amount of energy required to accelerate an object increases
             | as its speed approaches the speed of light. We have
             | observed this effect. New physics will never contradict
             | this - they may just put it in a new light, or perhaps
             | discover a new dimension. But they will not invalidate the
             | measurements we have so far.
             | 
             | Note that the observations done in Newton's time were never
             | proved wrong - we just discovered that with better
             | measurement precision and in different regimes of speed,
             | they turn out to have additional small terms.
             | 
             | It is perfectly possible that we'll discover additional
             | extremely weak forces and effects, and they may completely
             | contradict our interpretations of the physical theories
             | we've discovered, but they are unlikely to prove that the
             | facts (measurements themselves) we know now are wrong, at
             | least in the regimes we've noticed them.
        
         | Dirlewanger wrote:
         | Interstellar travel simply isn't happening without something
         | like the Alcubierre drive.
        
           | simiones wrote:
           | Even the Alcubierre drive may not actually work:
           | 
           | https://backreaction.blogspot.com/2020/11/warp-drive-news-
           | se...
           | 
           | > As I explained earlier, the relevant question is then, what
           | does the wall of the passenger area have to be made of? Is
           | this a physically possible distribution of mass and energy?
           | Bobrick and Martire explain that if you want superluminal
           | motion, you need negative energy densities. If you want
           | acceleration, you need to feed energy and momentum into the
           | system. And the only reason the Alcubierre Drive moves faster
           | than the speed of light is that one simply assumed it does.
           | Suddenly it all makes sense!
        
         | PartiallyTyped wrote:
         | There is a paper that suggests we could, in theory, direct the
         | sun itself towards something while we continued to live as we
         | normally do with little to no change in our lives until we
         | arrived at our destination. This does not effectively cost as
         | much, but it will take a lot of time.
         | 
         | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00945...
        
           | Cthulhu_ wrote:
           | At those time scales though, the whole world's population
           | would not only have forgotten, but probably gone extinct and
           | re-evolved multiple times over. Humans have only been a thing
           | for a few million years, if that.
        
           | bbarnett wrote:
           | Interesting. Wan-to did such things, a plasmatic being which
           | lives ib a star, via author Fredrick Pohl. The World at the
           | End of Time.
           | 
           | I wonder, did the author of the study read, then postulate?
        
         | chrisseaton wrote:
         | > The hard fact is there are no shortcuts to interstellar
         | travel, barring new physics.
         | 
         | Do you know that early in the development of trains people were
         | sure it would be physically impossible for humans to travel
         | over 30 mph or so? They thought something would happen with the
         | air pressure or something.
         | 
         | Our understanding of physics changes.
        
           | jkingsbery wrote:
           | Given that horses run faster than 30 mph [1], and people have
           | been riding on horses for a while before trains were
           | developed [2], this seems unlikely.
           | 
           | [1] https://horseandrider.com/western-horse-life/fastest-a-
           | quart...
           | 
           | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Domestication_of_the_horse
        
             | chrisseaton wrote:
             | > this seems unlikely
             | 
             | Well duh nobody thinks it's likely now! Obviously I don't
             | believe it so don't explain it to me, explain it to people
             | at the time!
             | 
             | https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/67806/early-trains-
             | were-...
             | 
             | (This article says 50, which is still slower than a horse
             | in your link, but I've read 30 in books.)
        
           | sandworm101 wrote:
           | Only the crackpots thought train travel impossible. Anyone
           | with experience of air moving at such speeds, ie the everyone
           | in the navy, knew there wouldn't be a problem.
        
             | chrisseaton wrote:
             | It's easy to sort the crackpots from the people who know
             | what they're talking about post hoc! Not so easy before!
        
       | cwhiz wrote:
       | Of all the potential Fermi outcomes, I find the "uninterested
       | aliens" to be the silliest.
       | 
       | More likely is the universe is massive, and the aliens have
       | already visited. Millions or billions of years ago.
        
         | raverbashing wrote:
         | Yes. Or don't need to visit "in person" to see what's going on
         | (or visited in the past thousands of years and has seen
         | "enough" for now).
        
       | sleepysysadmin wrote:
       | In my scifi book(s), the only reason aliens have to come to earth
       | than say any other planet is to party. There's no reason to
       | dominate or steal our resources. Go to any other system and you
       | have infinite amounts of resources. In fact most star systems
       | will have planets with life but not necessarily intelligent life.
       | 
       | So fundamentally it's just tourism. They come to Earth to drink
       | beer and have fun. Though tourism is very rare because we have
       | been so violent to previous tourists at roswell.
       | 
       | Obviously there are antagonists who do want to destroy humanity
       | but generally speaking its about tourism.
        
       | waheoo wrote:
       | Because we assume our instinctual tendency to explore is what
       | makes us so dominant.
       | 
       | More of the same old anthropomorphizing I guess.
        
       | sys_64738 wrote:
       | In the movies it usually doesn't end well for us. Maybe we stay
       | below the radar for now.
        
       | thelazydogsback wrote:
       | Our species is at _the_ most interesting point (now + coming few
       | generations) in its evolution I 'd think (creation of WMDs,
       | genetic engineering, effecting plant-scale changes, artificial
       | intelligence/life, spacefaring, etc.) - a tipping point that
       | makes us most "interesting" at the moment -- so if there's a
       | civilization that's been around for millions (if not billions) of
       | years, I'd expect that they are here now, and that they are in a
       | form (tiny, distributed, etc.) that isn't recognizable to us
       | unless they decided to manifest in a specific form. I'd wager
       | that if we are not the lone civ in the galaxy, that this is
       | probably the case.
        
       | scj wrote:
       | Scientists thinking like scientists!
       | 
       | I'd presume an advanced culture that can traverse the galaxy has
       | many resources. Like humanity, I'd assume that with abundance,
       | entertainment would be prioritized.
       | 
       | We might be nothing more than a new source of fashion and novelty
       | to them! They may like Rock & Roll, our food, our clothing, or
       | even pogs.
       | 
       | We might even be boring to them for the moment, but they're
       | hoping for a future payoff.
       | 
       | Or they could just look at us as a future source of diversity in
       | their society. The different methods of creating sentient beings
       | might be of great importance to a post-biological society (maybe
       | there's charm in our resource inefficiency).
       | 
       | Determining the motivations of a post-singularity society is a
       | difficult task. It's fun because it forces you to think beyond
       | your current means. But I wouldn't consider it a productive
       | endeavor.
        
         | newsbinator wrote:
         | It's possible they can simulate many trillions of species
         | realistically, so they wouldn't need to examine us
         | individually. Many of the other trillion would have interesting
         | music or interesting pog slammers. Their machine learning might
         | pick up on it and surface it for them to review.
         | 
         | It's possible we are one of those trillion species being
         | simulated, and our pogs are currently being scrutinized.
        
         | RodgerTheGreat wrote:
         | Rather presupposes that alien life is similar enough to
         | humanity for culture and art to be more-or-less mutually
         | intelligible.
         | 
         | Would extraterrestrials who communicate with pheremones, or
         | touch, or don't communicate at all (ala "Blindsight") have any
         | concept of music? If they can "hear", does their sensory range
         | overlap ours? Is it compatible with our notion of musical
         | scales? Does whatever passes for a nervous system operate at a
         | similar timescale to ours?
         | 
         | Food and clothing seem like more of a stretch- even within
         | earth's biosphere many substances humans can eat are poisonous
         | to other animals, and vice versa. Vast differences in bodyplan
         | would almost certainly make our clothing useless to an alien
         | race, and the materials we use could easily be incompatible
         | with their biology.
         | 
         | Even if aliens were substantially similar psychologically,
         | minor changes in biology could result in completely different
         | societies. What would our world look like with humans who
         | reproduced asexually, or in triads? Where we produce our own
         | food via photosynthesis or symbiosis? Where we didn't sleep, or
         | different populations hibernated in their own cycles?
         | 
         | Overall I'm inclined to believe that cultural exchange with an
         | intelligent extraterrestrial species would be harder and less
         | productive than cultural exchange with parrots.
        
           | whatshisface wrote:
           | We are beginning to approach a point in our technological
           | development where we can beam information into our brains to
           | be perceived as sensory input. Maybe someday we will be able
           | to subjectively experience things not provided by our natural
           | senses. At that point, alien art may become a lot more
           | interesting.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | hhjj wrote:
         | It also could be as entertaining as watching paint dry for
         | them.
        
         | pasquinelli wrote:
         | i think the reason people assume aliens would want to visit us
         | is because they are vaguely aware of human history, which is
         | characterized by more advanced societies, driven by a need to
         | expand, subjugating or destroying less advanced societies. the
         | very idea that aliens might exist and that they might be more
         | advanced than us leads directly to the question, "would they do
         | us like, say, europe did the americas?"
        
       | DaniloDias wrote:
       | This is a great example of a doc built on weasel word arguments.
       | 
       | All qualitative until it can't avoid quantitative metrics like
       | "many"
        
       | jp57 wrote:
       | > Fermi's paradox is pretentious in that it assumes we humans
       | have some sort of cosmic significance.
       | 
       | Our significance as a species is actually irrelevant to the
       | question of why we might or might not be visited. Even if we turn
       | out to be somehow extraordinary, the aliens would have to visit
       | first before they could know that.
        
         | drichel wrote:
         | Imagine aliens of the future for whom the Fermi paradox does
         | not arise, because the galaxy is teeming with what used to be
         | human.
        
       | nend wrote:
       | >We may be a phenomenon as uninteresting to them as ants are to
       | us; after all, when we're walking down the sidewalk we rarely if
       | ever examine every ant along our path.
       | 
       | Not really the most convincing argument. There are professions
       | that study ants. And I'm sure I'm not the only person on this
       | forum that has a casual interest in observing ants.
       | 
       | Pretty sure aliens would still be interested in us even if we
       | were as primitive as ants.
        
         | throwaway2245 wrote:
         | > I'm sure I'm not the only person on this forum that has a
         | casual interest in observing ants
         | 
         | From Wikipedia for "ant": "More than 12,500 of an estimated
         | total of 22,000 species have been classified."
         | 
         | From our human perspective, we are interested in ants.
         | Everybody has seen ants. Everybody is curious about ants.
         | 
         | From an ant perspective, humans scarcely exist. There are
         | 10,000 ant _species_ that don 't have a relationship with
         | humans sufficient to deserve classification, let alone a name.
         | 
         | (I also want to wonder aloud why extra-terrestrials would be
         | more interested in humans than in ants)
        
           | ruined wrote:
           | and not only this, even among classified species, most
           | colonies will never interact directly with a human. when ants
           | do come into contact with things we have made, they do not
           | comprehend it. and when they interact with us directly, even
           | in a mode where we are identifiable to them as an entity,
           | they can't identify much about us beyond the practical facts
           | that we are dangerous or perhaps edible.
        
             | patcon wrote:
             | And further, to the extent that we might say "a lot of ants
             | experience people now", it's perhaps more a function of us
             | being way overextended beyond the sustainable carrying
             | capacity of our system.
             | 
             | In a world where humans somehow kept themselves from
             | risking their own existence through limitless growth (which
             | I'm assuming wiser intelligences would navigate better),
             | the vast majority of ants colonies would never have any
             | human take notice of them through their whole existence.
        
               | mcbits wrote:
               | Even as we expand our presence and every random ant has a
               | better and better chance of encountering some kind of
               | evidence of human existence, it still has to know how to
               | evaluate what it's seeing.
               | 
               | An ant finds a peanut. Being a smart ant, it recognizes
               | that something is strange about this peanut. It appears
               | to be roasted. After thinking for a while, it develops a
               | theory to explain how lightning can ignite fires capable
               | of roasting peanuts. Simple and obvious explanation in
               | hand, no further inquiry or speculation about the
               | existence of "advanced peanut roasting technology" is
               | needed.
               | 
               | I mean, why would supposedly advanced creatures
               | intentionally reduce the nutritional quality of the
               | peanut by roasting it, anyway? Yes, definitely lightning.
        
             | smelter wrote:
             | To an ant, I am a mountain/ thunderstorm/earthquake/quasar.
        
               | behnamoh wrote:
               | Chances are ETs have transformed into a physical form
               | that is undistinguishable from, say, planets, energy,
               | even stars. After all, the ultimate level of technology
               | design and sophistication is when it is not
               | distinguishable from its surroundings.
        
               | smelter wrote:
               | Agreed - we do not even possess the instruments to define
               | the nature of dark matter, and it is only by inference
               | that we can suppose it exists.
               | 
               | It is amazing that Fermi, Einstein, et al were able to
               | predict what they did without readily available modern
               | computing hardware and search engines.
               | 
               | Some things are out of the realm of our perception.
        
           | nend wrote:
           | Yes but there's a difference between being unable to study
           | all ant species due to a lack of resources, and being
           | uninterested in doing so.
           | 
           | I expect we'll continue studying ant species with the goal of
           | studying all of them we can (assuming we don't wipe ourselves
           | out or ant species out before we have a chance to).
           | 
           | Similarly I also expect we (or an advanced alien species)
           | would attempt to study as many other alien species as they
           | can as well, and wouldn't stop simply because they don't want
           | to.
           | 
           | We've studied 12,500 out of an estimated 22,000 so far. It's
           | not like we've stopped and said "ok we're good, no need to
           | study other ant species."
        
             | throwaway2245 wrote:
             | > being unable to study all ant species due to a lack of
             | resources, and being uninterested in doing so.
             | 
             | Of course! That's my point.
             | 
             | Back to the alien analogy: if we believe that human-like
             | life is as common across the universe as ants are on earth,
             | then more-advanced aliens might well be philosophically
             | interested in studying us, but not have yet bothered to
             | reach us.
             | 
             | They might be busy "contacting" their local human-ish
             | specieses who they see everywhere, all the time, and not
             | think it is important to spend time contacting similar
             | planet #12358 on the list, that's a bit further out of the
             | way, and could take them a million years of dedicated
             | effort.
        
             | notahacker wrote:
             | The lack of resources devoted to the counting of ant
             | species is a reflection of it being very uninteresting to
             | most people. Relative to the entire universe, our world
             | really doesn't have many places to look for ants, and we
             | don't need to travel faster than the speed of light to find
             | them.
        
               | throwaway316943 wrote:
               | This is a good supporting point. If you actually
               | quantified the effort and resources it would take to
               | study every species of ant it would likely be quite small
               | although not trivially so. Yet it is still left up to the
               | personal interests of professional biologists to lobby
               | for research programs. It could play out similarly on a
               | galactic scale in which case our first point of contact
               | might be a grad student from the biology department of
               | the local Uni.
        
         | simonh wrote:
         | It's hard to be sure what a 10 or 100 million year old
         | civilisation might still find interesting. I certainly wouldn't
         | think a few hundred years of industrialisation, and a few
         | decades of the information technology age gives us any real
         | idea.
        
           | behnamoh wrote:
           | This. Plus, who says those ETs are of biological form anyway?
           | Even _we_ are thinking about AI doing most of the work,
           | transhumanism and uploading our minds to machines, and
           | finally, integrating with technology. Why think that a 10
           | million year old civilization still has flesh bodies, needs,
           | and curiosities?
           | 
           | Another comment also mentioned that ETs don't necessarily
           | share the same interests and thought process as we do, and I
           | agree. For an insanely sophisticated civilization, mental
           | representations and the abstract concepts they can think
           | about are just unimaginable for us.
        
         | px43 wrote:
         | Maybe there's a much more interesting colony of ants nearby and
         | we're just boring?
        
         | donatj wrote:
         | Let's say though it took several generations to travel to the
         | ants, would we bother?
        
           | Cthulhu_ wrote:
           | I think so. Not that long ago, humans spread across the
           | world, first organically, then intentionally. We're at the
           | infancy of spaceflight at the moment, the equivalent of
           | putting food and water in a raft to go to the next island
           | over.
           | 
           | We'll see humans on Mars in our lifetime, like the previous
           | generation saw humans on the moon. Assuming the development
           | and interest in spaceflight continues, we'll be seeing
           | generation ships departing for the next solar system within
           | the next 500 or so years (rough armchair prediction based on
           | nothing at all). Of course, we have some massive problems to
           | solve first, like biology, self-sustenance in deep space,
           | cultural, financial, etc.
           | 
           | Anyway, my theory that we haven't seen other species yet is
           | that space is vast and science fiction tech for light speed
           | and beyond does not exist. If you have technology that can
           | reach 1% of light speed, it'll take 10 million years to fly
           | across just our galaxy. Humans evolved somewhere within that
           | bracket. Even if the technology is there, you're seeing not
           | just generations but entire species develop in the timescales
           | of traveling the milky way.
        
         | bryanrasmussen wrote:
         | it is sort of funny that the argument for lack of intellectual
         | curiosity in aliens is being made in Scientific American.
        
         | rixrax wrote:
         | I also casually deploy diatomaceous earth and other methods to
         | exterminate ants when I come across them in or around the
         | house. I'm glad the wandering aliens have not yet decided to
         | use this strategy. Especially if they would find earth a
         | desirable location for some colonial purposes.
        
         | vuciv1 wrote:
         | I find this point weak because we literally study ants and sell
         | ant colonies for interested parties
        
         | Dumblydorr wrote:
         | Even more common than those who study ants? Exterminators, ant
         | eaters, and kids who stomp on ants for fun. I don't like our
         | chances...
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | harryf wrote:
         | We like to assume they are many orders of magnitude more
         | intelligent than us. But it might be that the human brain
         | represents the optimum size and capability possible for a
         | living organism to sustain, based on requirements for energy
         | consumption and evolutionary competitiveness.
         | 
         | We know that Neanderthals may have had bigger brains, and may
         | have been pushed to extinction by homo sapiens. A bigger brain
         | will require more food and take longer to develop, potentially
         | putting Neanderthals at an evolutionary disadvantage to humans.
         | 
         | Assuming the laws of Physics do not vary throughout the
         | universe and that evolution, if "run more than once" will
         | eventually lead to similar outcomes, that could mean aliens
         | capable of space travel are not significantly more intelligent
         | than us, they've just had longer to develop technology.
         | 
         | And given their apparent tendency to crash their spaceships
         | while visiting earth, you might have a reasonable case for
         | "alien idiots"...
        
           | alisonkisk wrote:
           | Evolution has been a mostly unimportant part of human
           | development since at least 2 centuries ago. An intelligent
           | species engineers itself, not evolves itself.
        
           | theli0nheart wrote:
           | > _We know that Neanderthals may have had bigger brains, and
           | may have been pushed to extinction by homo sapiens. A bigger
           | brain will require more food and take longer to develop,
           | potentially putting Neanderthals at an evolutionary
           | disadvantage to humans._
           | 
           | Where are you getting this data?
           | 
           | Per Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neanderthal),
           | Neanderthal brains were similar to those of modern humans:
           | 
           | > _The braincases of Neanderthal men and women averaged about
           | 1,600 cm3 (98 cu in) and 1,300 cm3 (79 cu in) respectively,
           | which is within the range of the values for modern humans._
        
         | BlueTie wrote:
         | A better version of that argument might be: "if ants evolved to
         | have higher than human intellect and technology - would they be
         | interested in studying us humans?"
         | 
         | I think the answer is far less clear in that scenario.
        
           | alisonkisk wrote:
           | Why wouldn't they?
        
             | BlueTie wrote:
             | It's possible they would, possible they wouldn't. The point
             | is that if you project things about human intelligence i.e.
             | "but humans like ants so why wouldn't the reverse be true?
             | "or "most humans don't pay attention to ants so why would
             | aliens care?"on to other types of intelligence, you're
             | making a big assumption.
             | 
             | A superintelligent ant colony with an "of ant" intellect is
             | going to be so alien to our kind of intellect that the
             | goals are just impossible to compare. Probably same for
             | aliens unless there are many humanoid ones for some reason.
        
         | lhorie wrote:
         | I also think the argument isn't put forward in the best logical
         | way, but for a different reason: another potential reason why
         | aliens might not choose to come to visit us is that they
         | physically can't: imagine a lifeform whose chemistry is based
         | on liquid methane instead of water. They'd literally vaporize
         | in Earth's atmosphere!
         | 
         | They could also operate on a completely different timescale.
         | For example, shrews' metabolism is way faster than ours.
         | Sequoias are way slower. There's no reason an alien should
         | perceive time on the same scale we do.
        
         | nkrisc wrote:
         | If there are aliens as advanced compared to us as we are to
         | ants, that would imply to me that life is actually fairly
         | abundant in the universe. However just as not every anthill
         | gets studied by entomologists, perhaps there are simply too
         | many planets with life for a galaxy-traversing civilization to
         | study.
        
         | me_me_me wrote:
         | There are also people that pour liquid metal into ant colony to
         | cast its internal structure.
         | 
         | It doesn't end well for ants.
        
         | kypro wrote:
         | It's also not true that the only time ants come into contact
         | with humans is when they're being observed. Even if aliens were
         | uninterested in us, it wouldn't necessarily mean we'd expect
         | not to see any signs of alien life.
         | 
         | In the same way an ant might stumble across a human building or
         | notice a human above the grass, you would think if life was so
         | prevalent in our galaxy that there would be some sign of their
         | technology.
        
           | rbanffy wrote:
           | I wouldn't expect any given alien culture to be easily
           | detectable and/or willing to make large scale objects we
           | could detect.
           | 
           | I would, however, expect at least one such civilization would
           | develop within our detection range. As our range increases,
           | both in distance and in breadth, chances should get
           | increasingly better.
        
           | ryanmercer wrote:
           | >you would think if life was so prevalent in our galaxy that
           | there would be some sign of their technology.
           | 
           | There's a big problem though, I've written about it here
           | https://www.ryanmercer.com/ryansthoughts/2014/11/30/this-
           | jus...
           | 
           | Basically time + the vastness of space = an insanely low
           | probability that any two intelligent civilizations would
           | overlap within a detectible sphere, especially with our
           | current level of technology.
           | 
           | If we assume 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 planets exist
           | in 100 billion galaxies and that 1 in 100 of those host
           | single cellular life, that 1 in 1000 of those host multi-
           | cellular life, that 1 in 1000 of those have animal life, that
           | 1 in 10 of those has sentient tool-building species you then
           | have 10 trillion planets with tool-building species.
           | 
           | If we assume an even distribution that's 100 tool-building
           | species per galaxy spread out over 12-13 billion years.
           | 
           | Oof.
           | 
           | Even if you make far more generous assumptions, and that 1 in
           | 2 planets has single cellular life and that 1 in 2 of those
           | have tool-building life. That gives you an average of 25,000
           | tool-building worlds per galaxy, something like a 1 in 20
           | million change any star in our galaxy has a tool-building
           | civilization.
           | 
           | If you remove the first billion years of the galaxy you get
           | 12.21-12.51 billion years.
           | 
           | Again if we assume an even distribution and assume 140,000
           | light-years in diameter for a galaxy, _that gives you
           | something like 1 tool building civilization per 600,000
           | square light-years spread out over 12 billion years_.
           | 
           | :( :( :(
        
         | thotsBgone wrote:
         | But what percentage of ants find themselves the subject of
         | human curiosity? We look at a few ants, but not most of them.
         | Maybe it's the same with aliens. We're just another mound of
         | monkeys; nothing they haven't seen before.
        
         | mrmonkeyman wrote:
         | We have studied (exactly) 0.00000000000001% of the total ant
         | population.
         | 
         | Also, no ant ever has understood he is being studied (which is
         | the more interesting point). We would experience superior
         | beings as "natural experience" and be totally oblivious to
         | them.
        
         | devilduck wrote:
         | It's more interesting to me that it seems like many egos can
         | not accept the idea that maybe they aren't that interesting
         | after all.
        
         | devoutsalsa wrote:
         | Look how excited scientists get when they discover organic
         | compounds in a comet or something that looks like
         | microorganisms in a Mars rock. I'm pretty sure aliens would be
         | interested in studying why I drink Diet Coke instead of water &
         | what consuming 4L a day does to me. Maybe I should also be
         | wondering what it does to me...
        
         | drbojingle wrote:
         | Do you think the ants notice it much?
        
         | bostonsre wrote:
         | I think the important part of that statement is "examine
         | _every_ ant". I don't think our ant professors have the
         | bandwidth to investigate every ant hill on earth. We could very
         | well be one of millions or billions of inhabited planets. Also
         | if there are millions or billions of inhabited planets, then
         | chances are a large proportion would have more advanced
         | inhabitants than us. I would guess that just like here on
         | earth, scientists would gravitate more towards investigating
         | the more advanced species with very few interested in ants like
         | us.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | jkingsbery wrote:
         | Agreed. Taking the "ant" argument to it's logical conclusion
         | and based on https://xkcd.com/1610/, there very well might be
         | some alien who is part of a very advanced society and
         | struggling in grad school, and that alien's advisor
         | (unhelpfully) is suggesting how cool it is that we earthlings
         | manage to do what we're able to do despite how primitive we
         | are.
        
         | hans1729 wrote:
         | Ants are interesting because of the complex behavioral systems
         | emerging from their comparatively simple biological systems,
         | reminiscent of the game of life.
         | 
         | Seeing the insane complexity of the human condition (look at
         | the amount of scientific disciplines we come up with) and
         | thinking "nay, this won't be interesting to a higher mind"
         | feels awfully dismissive.
         | 
         | sure, depending on the leap of sophistication we may appear
         | like... rocks, I guess? But I can't even begin to conceptualize
         | to what in comparison we'd appear like rocks. Anything of that
         | complexity probably is multiple magnitudes beyond our
         | comprehension anyway, and therefore not really part of the
         | discussion
        
           | op03 wrote:
           | Recently I had a bunch of snails appear out of nowhere all
           | over the garden. And I spent a whole lot of time, trying to
           | figure out what they were feeding on, cuz some were getting
           | really big. The whole thing was quite fascinating...like how
           | the hell were they producing these huge ass shells without
           | tearing all the plants apart? So I call a good buddy over
           | (PhD in bio something or the other) thinking he would be as
           | fascinated. And guess what...he shows up and all he wanted to
           | do was cook them. So much for higher minds. (we didn't btw)
        
             | 7thaccount wrote:
             | How did you know they were edible? I mean, I know people
             | eat snails in certain parts, but how did you know these
             | were safe?
        
               | evilsetg wrote:
               | That is what you have the bio something PhD for :-)
        
               | franknine wrote:
               | Snails might host Angiostrongylus cantonensis (https://en
               | .m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angiostrongylus_cantonensis) which
               | can kill people
        
               | Archelaos wrote:
               | In Germany I only ever eat helix pomatia[1]. Nowadays,
               | they are under nature protection. Only the consumption of
               | cultivated snails is allowed. They are related to mussels
               | and taste similar. I can especially recommend snail cream
               | soup.
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helix_pomatia
        
               | randycupertino wrote:
               | I used to think I loved escargot but it turns out I
               | actually just loved them as a delivery vessel for garlic,
               | butter and cheese.
        
             | whatshisface wrote:
             | Maybe he already knew about how the snails did their thing.
        
             | 6510 wrote:
             | Did you try talk with them? They are probably much more
             | like us than we are like 100 billion year old
             | civilizations. They might find us interesting to look at
             | but the proverbial bird watcher doesn't try to sit in the
             | nest.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | joshspankit wrote:
             | "Listen: I'm fascinated 23 hours a day. When I go over to a
             | buddy's house I just wanna eat things. Yaknow?"
        
           | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
           | I seriously doubt the human condition seems complex to a
           | species that went through this stage a billion years ago.
           | 
           | Or even a million years ago.
           | 
           | If we ever invent a time machine I doubt we'd learn much from
           | humans of 10,000 years ago. There would be some surprises for
           | historians and archaeologists, but we certainly wouldn't
           | treat them as cultural or technological equals.
           | 
           | So the horizon of interest where an encounter would be
           | fascinating _and worth the time and effort_ but not
           | devastatingly disruptive to either side is probably only a
           | few millennia.
           | 
           | But let's call it +/- 10k years, to be generous.
           | 
           | Compare with the age of the universe, or even of the galaxy.
           | It's really not a big proportion of the available time.
        
             | at-fates-hands wrote:
             | > There would be some surprises for historians and
             | archaeologists, but we certainly wouldn't treat them as
             | cultural or technological equals.
             | 
             | Generally speaking, about once a year, archeologists find
             | something that completely challenges their theories on
             | human evolution.
             | 
             | https://www.livescience.com/biggest-archaeology-
             | discoveries-...
             | 
             | Just the amount of engineering the Egyptians did is enough
             | to warrant our continued fascination with their culture,
             | some 5,000 years later.
        
             | soufron wrote:
             | "If we ever invent a time machine I doubt we'd learn much
             | from humans of 10,000 years ago. There would be some
             | surprises for historians and archaeologists, but we
             | certainly wouldn't treat them as cultural or technological
             | equals."
             | 
             | That's only your opinion, and it's most probably wrong.
             | These guys were capable of feats you can only dream of. And
             | you could be very surprised at their level of
             | sophistication, which might appear higher than us on many
             | levels - if not on all levels.
        
               | OnlyMortal wrote:
               | Quite. It's an insult to our ancestors to dismiss their
               | ability to use their technology.
               | 
               | The ruins we find around the world from previous
               | civilisations tell us they were very smart.
        
           | PartiallyTyped wrote:
           | To be fair to rocks, we also study them ...
        
             | guerrilla wrote:
             | Is astrogeology (as etymologically oxymoronic as that is)
             | already a subject?
        
               | Denvercoder9 wrote:
               | That's basically what asteroid science is. It's such a
               | big field that we're even sending probes to collect
               | rocks.
        
               | kridsdale1 wrote:
               | Maybe aliens will be interested in Earth for
               | Astrogastronomy.
        
               | liotier wrote:
               | Sorry, no - only the consumption of cultivated humans is
               | allowed.
        
               | madia_leva wrote:
               | How would you know that you are being cultivated?
        
               | jrd259 wrote:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/To_Serve_Man
        
         | philliphaydon wrote:
         | I subscribe to Ant Canada on YouTube. Fascinating stuff.
         | 
         | https://youtube.com/user/AntsCanada
        
         | throwaway0a5e wrote:
         | Do the ants in your example know they're being studied?
         | 
         | When the European powers explored the pacific they wrote off a
         | lot of islands as being devoid of anything useful. Now a few
         | hundred years later these islands, mostly untouched by humans,
         | are a gold mine for various niches of biology. Human presence
         | is still infrequent enough that the seagulls don't seem to
         | notice.
        
         | jjk166 wrote:
         | You look at ants, you don't look at every ant.
         | 
         | It would be absurd to conclude the absence of entomologists
         | just because most individual ants go unobserved.
        
         | carusooneliner wrote:
         | Avi Loeb's technical work is commendable but I'm left wondering
         | if some of the reasoning in this article counts for thoughtful
         | contemplation.
         | 
         | >"We may be a phenomenon as uninteresting to them as ants are
         | to us; after all, when we're walking down the sidewalk we
         | rarely if ever examine every ant along our path." Is it helpful
         | to ascribe human-like motives to an alien species? Projecting
         | our thought patterns on an alien species will not get us
         | anywhere. There could be numerous reasons or no reason in
         | particular why an alien lifeform might visit us: they are
         | cataloging lifeforms, they are interested in 'ants' like EO
         | Wilson, they might want to harvest resources on our planet,
         | etc.
         | 
         | > "But better yet, we could get in touch with Proxima b and
         | entice the locals to visit and share a water-based drink with
         | us." There's humor mixed in this statement, so I'm not sure if
         | Avi Loeb is being entirely serious. I take the opposite stand
         | of "don't broadcast our presence to aliens". It's common sense
         | that if you're out in the wild, you don't draw attention to
         | yourself.
        
         | teekert wrote:
         | Indeed, Ants do some pretty fascinating stuff, TIL we have
         | stuff like "Ant colony optimization algorithms" [0].
         | 
         | Even if we are as the aliens were 2 millions years ago, there
         | must be something of interest in what we do? I mean, we'd be
         | interested in life 2 billion years ago. I find it more likely
         | that they just don't want to interfere.
         | 
         | [0]
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ant_colony_optimization_algori...
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | Perhaps, but I think it is far more likely they can't
           | overcome the limits of the speed of light to do any useful
           | observing. They can't cross the distance to observe us, even
           | robots take so long to arrive that their star dies before it
           | gets here (not to mention our star was still forming when
           | they sent the probe out...)
           | 
           | They cannot observe us directly, light just doesn't have that
           | resolution at the distance. They can't observe our radio
           | waves because our radio waves are only 100 light years out,
           | not to mention the signal strength fades with distance.
        
         | DeusExMachina wrote:
         | And, after that, the article proceeds listing all the reasons
         | why our sun, planet, and species might be very different from
         | what you might find in other parts of the universe.
         | 
         | Which is actually what would make us more interesting, not
         | less.
        
         | ballenf wrote:
         | The point is that we're one of (large number) of ant colonies
         | and there's nothing particularly interesting about us vs. any
         | other ant colony.
         | 
         | Even if ETs study ants generally, there's nothing unique about
         | us to give us a greater than 1/(large number) chance of being
         | studied.
        
           | yoz-y wrote:
           | Last time a new mammal was discovered here it was
           | international news.
           | 
           | If an alien civilisation has trillions of trillions
           | individuals, there must be quite a bit of them interested in
           | any possible niche. This assumes that an interstellar species
           | would be naturally curious.
        
             | rbanffy wrote:
             | There are, literally, millions of planets that can sustain
             | life as we know it. Assuming a human-like mind, that alone
             | is enough to reduce the interest in alien life as something
             | mundane.
        
               | ryanmercer wrote:
               | >There are, literally, millions of planets that can
               | sustain life as we know it.
               | 
               | There are _probably_ x amount of planets that can sustain
               | life as we know it. We haven 't even verified the
               | existence of millions of planets.
               | 
               | https://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/docs/counts_det
               | ail... shows only 4331 confirmed exoplanets, of those
               | we've visited 0 and are still largely guessing as to
               | their atmospheres, weather, temperatures, seismic
               | activity, etc. Not to mention some we've found in the
               | "goldilocks" zone are likely regularly sterilized due to
               | the conditions of their orbit and their stars.
        
               | alisonkisk wrote:
               | There are literally millions of species on Earth, and
               | each one has a scientist interested in it.
        
           | Caprinicus wrote:
           | We have devoted large amounts of time and resources to
           | studying the differences between seemingly similar ant
           | colonies, and we have lived alongside ants for our entire
           | existence as a species.
           | 
           | Imagine now that we had never seen an ant, had a totally
           | different biological origin to the ants, and had no idea why
           | they did what they do because we had no cultural conception
           | of them as an entity.
           | 
           | We'd only be more interested in ants.
        
             | throwaway316943 wrote:
             | We might not be unique in those senses. If DNA and carbon
             | based life is the standard then we are likely more similar
             | to most life in the universe even if we have small
             | differences in physiology or culture. We don't share a
             | direct biological origin but we are still made of the same
             | stuff, probably originated under very similar conditions,
             | etc. Unique forms of life likely develop under equally rare
             | conditions in exotic environments. We're probably just run
             | of the mill meat bags.
        
               | baja_blast wrote:
               | I disagree that Aliens even if we share the exact same
               | building blocks would look similar to us. For example
               | even for planets that would be habitable for us would
               | have minor differences in atmospheric pressure, gravity,
               | the types of radiation their star produces would result
               | in drastically different evolutionary paths. Also even if
               | there was a clone of our solar system evolution would be
               | random and the life would look different from each other,
               | I mean look at Australia, or even look at Earth's history
               | the fauna during the Jurassic looks way different than
               | what we have today.
        
               | egsmi wrote:
               | Every snowflake is unique [1]. That doesn't mean you
               | study every snowflake that means you study the system
               | that makes snowflakes.
               | 
               | [1] https://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/climate-
               | weather/atm...
        
               | throwaway316943 wrote:
               | Small differences here means within the realm of what's
               | possible to build out of organic molecules. We're talking
               | about averaging life across the span of a galaxy. By
               | unique and exotic I meant unlikely life forms like
               | Boltzmann brains or sentient planets. We are probably one
               | out of a million sentient, organic, sexually reproducing
               | species. Once you've seen a few thousands of these you're
               | probably bored.
        
             | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
             | This is missing the point. We might be interested in ants,
             | but the ants would not be interested in us, because _ants
             | cannot understand us._
             | 
             | We can prod and research ant hills all we want. But all
             | ants will ever see are some unexpected occurrences - maybe
             | a very unusual scent which they can't place, or some food
             | which wasn't there earlier, or an unexpected plague of ant
             | death - which they will forget almost instantly.
             | 
             | It will never occur to ant-kind that they're even being
             | studied, because ants have no concept of what "being
             | studied" means.
             | 
             | There is nothing at all in the ant (hill) mind capable of
             | understanding that a creature like a human might exist,
             | never mind how to communicate with it.
             | 
             | So we can do what we like, and we will remain not just
             | invisible, but unthinkable - forever.
        
               | munk-a wrote:
               | I don't know about that - we don't have any real scale
               | equivalence in actual life forms so I'll use celestial
               | objects as an example. The movement of other planets has
               | almost no impact on our daily lives - the moon may impact
               | the tides and the sun leads to our day night cycle but we
               | can't effectively impact that and so, for the average
               | person, life goes on without more than a momentary
               | thought given to how things are going on up there.
               | Though, we are all vaguely aware that we could suddenly
               | and arbitrarily be killed by an asteroid impact (much
               | like a colony being arbitrarily chosen to become some
               | kid's ant-farm - or being run over by a truck) it isn't
               | in the front of our minds because we need to get back to
               | filling out that TPS report.
               | 
               | Still, as a society, we have a number of dedicated
               | individuals that do study celestial movements and would
               | try and prevent a sudden asteroid impact, and we all do
               | remain vaguely aware of what's going on up there. So I'm
               | not certain how much I agree with the fact that ants
               | cannot understand us. Sure we can't sit down and have tea
               | with an ant and talk about the weather, but if the moon
               | was a gigantic dragon that just moved really slowly in a
               | mostly predictable manner then how we interact with it
               | might not be particularly distinguishable from how we
               | interact with it when it's just a chunk of rock.
               | 
               | A good parallel to think of here is probably Discworld, I
               | might suggest reading The Light Fantastic if you never
               | had to get a bit of a sense of how we might interact with
               | celestially sized lifeforms and just how one-sided that
               | relationship could potentially be.
        
           | account42 wrote:
           | That would imply that there are also lots of alien worlds
           | that are similarly developed to us and those might be
           | interested.
        
             | Retric wrote:
             | We don't seem likely to leave the solar system any time
             | soon, so that could easily be the case. Especially if there
             | is any lag between detecting say radio waves or whatever
             | they find interesting and a ship showing up.
             | 
             | The other consideration is visiting other stars may be
             | possible and extremely expensive. Colonizing at say 0.001c
             | is possible, but very slow and likely requires generation
             | ships. Hardly worth it so your descendent can visit some
             | primitive culture who might not be around when they get
             | there.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | RandallBrown wrote:
           | But if there are so many ant colonies like us (and I would
           | say we're very interested in alien life) then I would assume
           | at least _some_ of them would be interested in us too.
        
           | bbarnett wrote:
           | This. And to add my own expansion to this, the number of ants
           | studied by humans is effectively zero.
           | 
           | First, out of all the ant biomass, humans have only seen a
           | very, very tiny amount. Ants are so numerous, and so
           | ubiquitous, Google claims 10 billion billion. Yet this number
           | seems incredibly low, for apparently (wikipedia) some ant
           | colonies have 100s of millions of workers.
           | 
           | Regardless, as a human, can you imagine trying to visit each
           | ant colony? How about if you lived just as long as an ant, or
           | thereabouts? Say, a few years?
           | 
           | How about ant colonies which appear, die off? And how about
           | the fact that ants have been around since the dinosaurs, and
           | our modern civilisation has been around for a few hundred?
           | 
           | And how about if you are a researcher? Let's say you stand
           | back, and watch the ants. Do the ants even notice? Especially
           | the main colony?
           | 
           | Or are you looking at a few out of endless numbers? What do
           | they report when they get back. Do you even need to be near
           | the ant colony to watching them?
           | 
           | And after you've looked at 100 ant colonies, do you need to
           | look at another 1000? Million? We keep discovering subtle
           | branches of insects, so why would a.. I dunno, being
           | comprised of energy, find different (after the first 1000) in
           | a species with a bunch of meaty limbs?
        
             | akiselev wrote:
             | You just made me feel a little sorry for all those millions
             | of ants who get back to their colonies and get ostracized
             | for wild stories of giant aliens stomping on their brothers
             | and lighting them on fire with concentrated beams of light.
             | 
             | On the bright side, their version of "Ancient Aliens" is
             | probably a lot more factual and based in reality.
        
           | taneq wrote:
           | > There's nothing particularly interesting about us vs. any
           | other ant colony.
           | 
           | I'd hope not. 'Interesting' ant colonies sometimes get molten
           | aluminium poured down them to make a cast of the nest.
        
         | xwdv wrote:
         | Even if we study ants, that doesn't mean aliens will be able to
         | secure enough funding to launch an expedition across the gulf
         | of space to study humans up close. Telescopes and radio waves
         | may be the most they could invest in.
        
         | s_dev wrote:
         | >There are professions that study ants.
         | 
         | Not only that we've incorporated armies of scientists in to the
         | public realm to advise on such envoirnmental/biodiversity
         | policy issues. It's possible an Interstate Freeway project may
         | not happen because an bunch of endangered ants live along its
         | planned route.
        
           | addicted wrote:
           | This makes me think that one possible reason we havent
           | observed any alien life is that similar to how we may avoid
           | any sort of development or encroachment in an area containing
           | an endangered species, we may have been marked off as too
           | fragile to interact.
           | 
           | And humans are an incredibly fragile species from the
           | perspective of a space faring civilization. If a meteor hits
           | our planet, we are basically done. And even if that doesn't
           | happen, we can only acquire raw materials and energy from our
           | own planet, so we may basically just tap out all our
           | resources before we learn to acquire it from somewhere else.
           | 
           | And then there is the fact that we love blowing each other
           | up, which may not be a common trait amongst intelligent
           | species.
        
           | throwaway2245 wrote:
           | > an bunch of endangered ants
           | 
           | As best as I can tell, there are no ant species on any
           | endangered list, so this is a hyperbolic point.
           | 
           | (In general, we don't even study ant species enough to know
           | whether they are endangered)
        
             | s_dev wrote:
             | Theres a few species classified as endangered ants on the
             | IUCN Red List.
             | 
             | However didn't aliens crush humanity to make space for a
             | Intergalactic Super Highway in Hithchikers Guide to the
             | Galaxy? We aren't even endangered according to those ruling
             | fictional aliens who epitomise the "not interested in
             | humanity" aspect.
        
         | grahamburger wrote:
         | I think the argument is that while ants are indeed interesting
         | to us as a subject, not every single anthill gets our
         | attention. There are probably lots of anytime anthills in out
         | of the way places that have never had human interaction.
        
           | psadri wrote:
           | Maybe not humans, but they probably do get visits from other
           | insects and animals.
        
             | volkk wrote:
             | an interesting point which begs the question of what is a
             | threshold of intelligence required to lose interest in a
             | species. and if intelligence isn't the only parameter, what
             | are the others? predation is an obvious one, curiosity
             | comes with a form of intelligence, what else is there?
        
       | albanread wrote:
       | I think we would want to visit them; and that's the reason we
       | hope they might like to visit us. And we hope there is some easy
       | shortcut through space; that we might figure out in the next few
       | centuries; so we can visit people while we are still human and
       | still have this motivation.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | cvaidya1986 wrote:
       | Why do we assume we can detect extra terrestrials
        
       | xpuente wrote:
       | "Chemical" based intelligence/life is only the bootstrap to
       | "electron" based intelligence/life. Most likely we might be
       | unable to understand that until ourselves cross that line. They
       | will wait for it.
        
         | spideymans wrote:
         | This seems so... _obvious_ , that I'm surprised this potential
         | isn't talked about more. Our own species probably isn't all
         | that far away from generating some variety of machine
         | consciousness. I'd say give it a few hundred years at most.
         | 
         | Heck, this begs the question of why the hell would an
         | intelligent alien species even send their meat bags into space,
         | when they can just upload their consciousness into a machine
         | and have it do their bidding, without any of the limitations of
         | biological systems.
        
           | xpuente wrote:
           | >it a few hundred years at most.
           | 
           | We will not wait for that long. When the fundamental "piece"
           | comes out, all our current knowledge in neuroscience will
           | fall into place very quickly.
        
       | gmuslera wrote:
       | Assuming how a different species, with different biology and a
       | far more advanced technology than us, should think is naive.
       | 
       | There is another approach for it. Or what we know about the
       | universe is basically true (and we can't travel faster than
       | ligth, nor do something that, I don't know, turns all our galaxy
       | into 2D or triggering the big rip) or if we keep advancing we
       | could do something that threatens something that is very far
       | away. In the latter case close enough civilizations may worry
       | about what we do, and be in a dark forest universe (ok, here I'm
       | assuming how they should think here too). But for that to have
       | any meaning we should be in an universe where the speed of light
       | is not the ultimate limit in any meaningful way, and so far we
       | know, we don't.
        
       | sandworm101 wrote:
       | Is there a single animal on planet earth that doesn't get the
       | occasional visit from an interested human? From deep sea squid to
       | albatross, someone eventually arrives for a chat. There must be
       | the extraterrestrial equivalent of Attenborough out there
       | somewhere.
        
         | Cthulhu_ wrote:
         | Oh there must be, but that's assuming they have means of
         | actually finding and reaching us.
         | 
         | At the moment, the only thing I can imagine that would be like
         | that would be a deep space probe that has been traveling for
         | thousands of years, moving so fast it can't actually slow down
         | and make contact. What if Oumuamua was one of those, or the
         | melted slag remains of that? We'll never know.
        
       | hartator wrote:
       | Yes, it's exactly why we should be septic regarding ufo sightings
       | and such. If aliens are so advanced, we are probably no different
       | than ants for them. Why they should care about us? Why they
       | should protect themselves to be seen?
        
         | whitepaint wrote:
         | > Why they should care about us? Why they should protect
         | themselves to be seen?
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples
        
           | hartator wrote:
           | > Right to self-isolation
           | 
           | Nothing wrong with that but no alien has asked us that
           | question as far as I know.
        
         | stabbles wrote:
         | We study ants too...
         | 
         | Go to the ant, thou sluggard;
         | 
         | Consider her ways, and be wise
        
           | hartator wrote:
           | 99.99% of ant colonies are not been studied. And for 0.01% we
           | do study, we don't care of them seeing us.
           | 
           | > Consider her ways, and be wise
           | 
           | There is no philosophy to extract from ant society. Pretty
           | dystopian, totalitarian, and despotic.
        
             | siltpotato wrote:
             | Ants work exclusively for the common good of the colony.
             | That's my kind of dystopia.
        
       | cortic wrote:
       | >The silence implied by Fermi's paradox ("Where is everybody?")
       | may mean that we are not the most attention-worthy cookies in the
       | jar.
       | 
       | I've always thought of Fermi's paradox as ultimately a math
       | problem, assuming a conservative amount of time between a
       | civilization in one star system colonizing a neighboring star
       | system, over billions of years _every star system_ in the galaxy
       | should be colonized by now.
       | 
       | The fact that we are not getting signals from the considerable
       | number of stars that are within a reasonable distance is
       | concerning. It does point to a great filter that we are not
       | seeing or understanding. Or at least an enormous misconception
       | about our universe.
        
         | bluGill wrote:
         | I just assume that space is filled with enough junk that you
         | cannot actually get between stars without getting hit by random
         | chance and destroyed.
        
         | drichel wrote:
         | We might as well be among the first ones. I find the idea quite
         | fascinating, it kind of puts the Earth back into the center and
         | makes us special in a way.
        
           | cortic wrote:
           | If we are the first, then its likely the 'great filter' is
           | behind us. And it means we will never find life that isn't
           | related to us.
        
             | drichel wrote:
             | I can't quite follow how the "early bloomers" theory would
             | imply either of those two conclusions. What I meant is the
             | concept that our galaxy is young and the conditions just
             | became right for ingelligent life to form, and here we are.
        
               | cortic wrote:
               | I've never heard of any theories that earth like
               | conditions are new or unique, in fact half of all stars
               | like ours are over 9 billion years old. And the universe
               | has almost stopped making new stars.
               | 
               | If you believe it takes, on average 9 billion years X 100
               | billion star systems to create 1 civilization, then you
               | believe in some kind of 'filter' that stops life almost
               | completely. A filter that we have passed to be the first.
               | 
               | And by the time any other life statistically emerges we
               | will have colonized the galaxy many times over.
        
               | drichel wrote:
               | There is indeed as far as I know some evidence that we
               | are early bloomers https://hubblesite.org/contents/news-
               | releases/2015/news-2015... Half of the stars might be 9
               | billion years old, but for heavy emelents fo form, you
               | need already certain conditions like neutron star mergers
               | need to have occured. Our galaxy might be just old enough
               | for that.
        
         | krapp wrote:
         | >I've always thought of Fermi's paradox as ultimately a math
         | problem, assuming a conservative amount of time between a
         | civilization in one star system colonizing a neighboring star
         | system, over billions of years every star system in the galaxy
         | should be colonized by now.
         | 
         | I've never found this argument particularly compelling, as it
         | seems too simplistic and ignores a vast number of possible
         | confounding variables such as stars not being equally amenable
         | to colonization, or even equidistant to each other, and the
         | likely stability of civilizations over such timescales.
         | 
         | It seems far more likely to me that any civilization that
         | colonizes another star sees diminishing returns given the risk
         | and reaches some limit rather than seeking infinite,
         | exponential expansion.
         | 
         | >The fact that we are not getting signals from the considerable
         | number of stars that are within a reasonable distance is
         | concerning. It does point to a great filter that we are not
         | seeing or understanding. Or at least an enormous misconception
         | about our universe.
         | 
         | For one thing, the observable universe contains _billions_ of
         | _galaxies,_ which means the _vast_ majority of stars are
         | unreasonably distant.
        
           | cortic wrote:
           | What you are proposing is a great filter of confounding
           | variable and diminishing returns. You really think these
           | limitations are so overwhelming that practically _no_
           | civilization could expand exponentially? Cause that 's what
           | you need to be saying, if even one in a trillion _could_ then
           | they should be everywhere by now.
        
             | krapp wrote:
             | >You really think these limitations are so overwhelming
             | that practically no civilization could expand
             | exponentially?
             | 
             | Yes, including the set of all civilizations that _chose_
             | not to continue to expand exponentially as well as those
             | that tried and eventually failed, due to any number of
             | factors.
             | 
             | I think interstellar expansion (to say nothing of infinite
             | exponential expansion) turns out to be just that hard and,
             | for the relatively few civilizations that may actually
             | advance to the point of even being capable of considering
             | the effort, not worth the effort.
        
       | GistNoesis wrote:
       | It's all about computation.
       | 
       | The computer running universe-simulations needs to be able to run
       | fast. Regularities can be integrated quickly. Life not so much.
       | 
       | Life can make computers which can ask computations which can't be
       | reduced.
       | 
       | Therefore as soon as a big enough computer is built somewhere in
       | the universe, the whole simulation-time starts crawling to an
       | halt because the inner computer use all the resources, and future
       | times in the universe where there are many of those computers
       | never get to be materialized.
       | 
       | Alternatively, solutions using time-travel allows to run
       | simulations of longer simulation-time, by introducing a time-
       | coherence force which prevent such computer (aka biological-
       | numerical instabilities) to ever emerge.
        
         | behnamoh wrote:
         | It's a very interesting point that I hadn't noticed before. Of
         | course, this relies on assuming (believing?) the universe is a
         | giant simulation run on a computer with limited resources.
         | 
         | I did not get your last sentence though. Could you elaborate?
        
           | GistNoesis wrote:
           | Rules of the universe appear to us relatively simple. But the
           | question of numerical stability is not solved specially for
           | later times.
           | 
           | In physics it is natural to start from an initial state and
           | integrate through time, starting from initial time and
           | evolving by time-stepping.
           | 
           | Physics helps but this doesn't prevent the emergence of
           | numerical instabilities like a big-computer being built.
           | 
           | So if you were running a universe simulation, when a life
           | form start to emerge and starts building a big computer you
           | can "erase" them from existence by approximating them away.
           | 
           | When your simulation starts crawling to an halt, you modify
           | locally the current phases at the time of the modification so
           | that the alien go extinct, and you propagate backwards in
           | time towards the origin of the universe, to find the initial
           | parameters of the simulation that when inputted make the
           | alien never be a problem in the first place while not
           | modifying too much the rest of the universe at current time.
           | 
           | From the perspective of a being inside the universe, the only
           | thing we could observe by such a parameter search on the
           | spaces of possible universe, are being amazed at how some
           | constants of the universe seem to be fine-tuned.
        
             | behnamoh wrote:
             | > From the perspective of a being inside the universe, the
             | only thing we could observe by such a parameter search on
             | the spaces of possible universe, are being amazed at how
             | some constants of the universe seem to be fine-tuned.
             | 
             | That's a good point, and I've also always wondered how
             | fine-tuned those constants are. One problem though, is that
             | changing the initial parameters would most likely have
             | chaotic effects as the system (the whole universe) seems
             | unstable and fragile. For example, it would be extremely
             | difficult to fine-tune the parameters such that billions of
             | years later at this moment, I don't write this comment.
        
             | htfu wrote:
             | And why exactly would someone go to all this trouble
             | instead of just throttling that region of space? Surely you
             | don't mean to say it would all run on a single chip?
             | 
             | And if this was a simulation there'd presumably be a
             | purpose to it and once heavy computation emerges the entity
             | running the sim would throw more resources at this
             | interesting phenomenon, not try to get rid of it.
             | 
             | It'd be like "each time the neural net achieved AGI, the
             | humans tore it down to refocus on the real goal, bombproof
             | traffic sign recognition".
        
               | GistNoesis wrote:
               | It's not so easy to contain life. Potentially it can send
               | information at light-speed and your whole universe become
               | infested with a boring paper-clip AGI. Throttling will
               | create problems at the boundaries for the conserved
               | quantities, and for reproducibility.
               | 
               | But the mechanism I suggest, is a rather elegant (chaos
               | resistant) way to allow to give control over a
               | deterministic universe simulation without having to
               | restart from the beginning, it is akin to re-rolling the
               | dices if you don't like the result.
               | 
               | It is a somewhat natural way to search for the initial
               | configuration of the universe. It present some nice
               | properties. For example you can archive a whole universe
               | by its seed. Which allows many more interesting search
               | strategies. Like in chess you can create variations to
               | guide the search towards region which are of interests
               | for you.
               | 
               | I'd like to entertain the idea, that Bottled Universe
               | Inc. , has to ship some Tera-Year old universes by Xmas.
               | They have created plenty of variations in the universes
               | and selected one just for you. You plug the seed, and you
               | are guaranteed to see the emergence of beautiful universe
               | when you run it inside your less powerful computer-brain.
        
               | behnamoh wrote:
               | > It'd be like "each time the neural net achieved AGI,
               | the humans tore it down to refocus on the real goal,
               | bombproof traffic sign recognition".
               | 
               | Except that if the entity who's running the simulation is
               | itself AGI, it really does not have interest in
               | discovering yet another AGI in its own simulation.
        
           | Cthulhu_ wrote:
           | I dig the universe-is-a-simulation theory, given how we live
           | in an era where our own computation power and simulation
           | accuracy has only continued to increase for the past 70-odd
           | years. Which is a tiny amount of time on a galactic scale.
           | 
           | I wish suspended animation and the like was a thing, I'm
           | super curious about the future and development of humans. I
           | can imagine that within a thousand years, assuming we don't
           | hit a cataclysmic event that wipes everything out, I could no
           | longer understand anything that's going on anymore. (I mean
           | I'm starting to struggle with the younger generations' stuff
           | already... is this it? :o ).
        
         | klmadfejno wrote:
         | Why do people assume a universe simulating our own runs on
         | comparable physics?
        
         | avian wrote:
         | You give life and computers some special place in the universe
         | for being to able "ask computations which can't be reduced". I
         | don't think that's warranted. In the end, it's all fundamental
         | particles and forces and interactions. I don't see why life
         | would be special in that regard. A small part of material in
         | the core of a star "asks" many more questions each second than
         | a piece of brain tissue or a silicon chip.
        
           | htfu wrote:
           | But their very point was that the simulation wouldn't have to
           | compute every single individual particle, only the
           | "interesting" ones. The rest would be approximated to
           | whatever level required.
           | 
           | I basically agree with you but I can't see how your argument
           | applies here.
        
           | GistNoesis wrote:
           | I give computation and consistency a special place once you
           | assume you are in a simulation.
           | 
           | If a computer inside the universe runs some proof of work
           | computation like in BlockChain, (aka finding a mathematical
           | one-way function that when iterated is terminated by a big
           | enough trail of zeros), this computation has to be done in
           | the higher plane universe, or a witness from inside the
           | universe could deem the universe not consistent.
           | 
           | The alternative are time-travel explanations where you
           | substitute questions, by replacing questions for which you
           | can have already an answer.
           | 
           | You can approximate a star or any collection of particle by
           | while preserving its observable statistics aka effective-
           | super-particle and get huge computational speed-up. Life are
           | run-away processes for which you can't define statistics.
        
       | mdip wrote:
       | > Why Do We Assume Extraterrestrials Might Want to Visit Us?
       | 
       | I'm not trying to be sarcastic, though it'll be hard to write
       | this without the tone seeming that way, but the question alone
       | has a pretty simple set of answers and their own problems:
       | (1) Our only way to study how an *intelligent* extraterrestrial
       | would behave would be to study the behavior of other
       | intelligent[0] beings.  Our data set consists of one species.
       | Enough of this species wants to visit an extraterrestrial
       | civilization, and given no other examples, we assume it's
       | probably the same.       (2) Related to (1), we have exactly zero
       | evidence of the existence of *any* extraterrestrial life, let
       | alone life that understands that they live on "something in
       | space", that there is other life on a planet orbiting a sun
       | amongst an infinite number of stars, etc.
       | 
       | Maybe I'm not the article's target audience, but this is so far
       | down the list of questions that need to be answered at this point
       | that I had a hard time being motivated to read the whole thing.
       | 
       | The first, and a more interesting question is: "Is there any
       | life, intelligent or otherwise, outside of this planet?[1]" If we
       | found, say, that samples from Mars or some other planet/asteroid
       | had a diversity of different bacteria/single-celled organisms,
       | etc, it would increase the probability that there is intelligent
       | life out there "somewhere". If everything comes back empty,
       | there's probably better things to focus research energy on.
       | 
       | [0] The title is missing that important piece. If they are
       | unaware that life could exist they won't be all that interested
       | in visiting. The mattresses (from the planet "where mattresses
       | are grown") likely haven't pondered any of the big questions of
       | life, the universe and... everything.
       | 
       | [1] Tricky problem: you sent something up from a planet teaming
       | with all kinds of bacteria/life; I've read about how they
       | sanitize/handle things but it still amazes me that they can say
       | with any confidence that there was no cross-contamination, but
       | IANARS.
        
       | tsdlts wrote:
       | Perhaps a super intelligent civilization would not put up with
       | the limitations of our physical reality and instead upload their
       | collective consciousness into an artificial one. This has the
       | added benefit in that they are no longer dependent on natural
       | resource extraction to expand their population at least beyond
       | the energy requirements to sustain their giant consciousness
       | server. I'm sure I can't be the only one to have thought of this
       | but I'm not well read on the subject. Why go through pain and
       | suffering and various zero sum games when you could open up the
       | possibilities to the infinite?
        
       | kgin wrote:
       | If you assume that there is a civilization that has gone to the
       | trouble of developing interstellar transportation, I think you
       | can assume they value the differences between different parts of
       | the universe. Considering that inhabited planets or even solar
       | systems seem to be much more rare than uninhabited ones, I don't
       | think it's unreasonable to think these difference-interested
       | beings would want to stop by to at least map out an inhabited
       | planet.
        
       | lifeisstillgood wrote:
       | I'm writing a kids story (with my son, its quite fun to discuss
       | the story and plan the laser fights) about an alien that is
       | visiting earth to complete his Alien PhD - I am going to get some
       | sarcastic jibe about backwaters and wasting years away from any
       | decent fun etc.
       | 
       | I think we might consider that level of interest lucky. :-)
        
         | bluGill wrote:
         | With the speed of light being as slow as it is, that Alien must
         | be very long lived to consider such a trip. The PhD should
         | start observing the dinosaurs and for lack of enough data
         | continue on to humans.
        
           | bbarnett wrote:
           | The presumption that "today we know precisely how the
           | universe works, and therefore, all stories must follow this
           | mindset", is odd here.
           | 
           | Would you insist that Newtonian physics was the Only Way to
           | Think of Things, prior to Einsteinian? Why, then, do you
           | presume this will remain static forever? And therefore,
           | suggest that a story should follow this logic?
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | While it is possible relativity is wrong, anything that
             | replaces it must fit all the observations we have about the
             | universe that we currently use to prove relativity. That
             | leaves very little room for the replacement for relativity
             | to be different.
             | 
             | Newtonian physics is a special case of relativity when you
             | keep relative speeds slow.
             | 
             | We don't know how quantum mechanics fits in. There is a
             | known hole in current physics. However the size of the hole
             | is small.
        
               | bbarnett wrote:
               | I find it difficult to respond without emotion, to such a
               | comment. We likely know _very very little_ about physics
               | right now.
               | 
               | My point with Newtonian physics is that at the time, it
               | was The Physics. According to observation capable at the
               | time, it seemed to make sense, with a few little
               | oddities.
               | 
               | To them, they thought they had a small hole in current
               | physics. Does that sound like your "small hole" in
               | current physics today?
               | 
               | You believe we are knowledgeable, for we posses knowledge
               | our ancestors do not. You believe we are right, for our
               | observations tell us so. Yet how will we observe the
               | universe 1000 years from now? 100? What tools will we
               | have?
               | 
               | Place yourself 1000 years hence. Our ancestors will look
               | back, and see our current physics as we view Romans
               | babbling on about The Elements and aethers. Yes, to our
               | descendants, our science is absurdly simple, filled with
               | holes, broken, the list goes on.
               | 
               | We are not even remotely sure if space/time is consistent
               | outside of our local region of space!
               | 
               | Back to your Newtonian statement, what if all of our
               | current physics was thus? A viewpoint which only worked
               | under certain circumstances. From where I sit, this is
               | the reality.
               | 
               | We work with what we have, but must keep the knowledge of
               | our massive ignorance in play too!
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | The reality is newtonian physics is still taught in
               | college because for the vast majority of what people need
               | physics for it is close enough to correct as to not
               | matter.
               | 
               | I come back to this: even if we are wrong, whatever is
               | correct still needs to fit all the observations that we
               | have done to date. I don't know what we will know in 1000
               | years. Euclidean geometry is over 2000 years old and
               | still considered correct (though we have expanded on it a
               | lot - see in particular non-euclidean geometry)
        
               | anotherman554 wrote:
               | That fact that we are ignorant doesn't imply FTL is
               | possible- that's optimism on your part. The universe
               | doesn't care about your optimism and has no obligation to
               | contain the physics that can make Star Trek a real thing.
        
               | htfu wrote:
               | > According to observation capable at the time, it seemed
               | to make sense, with a few little oddities.
               | 
               | As bluGill says, according to observation right now it
               | _still_ makes sense. With a few little oddities.
               | 
               | Your view appears to be one of relativity refuting,
               | rather than further confirming (as far as the scales
               | studied at that time) classical physics.
               | 
               | You cannot compare it to something allowing FTL. There's
               | a major difference between "we don't know everything" and
               | "everything we know is wrong".
        
         | teekert wrote:
         | This sounds like a very fun idea to do! May try it as well :)
        
           | lifeisstillgood wrote:
           | If you do drop me a DM - having "fun" fighting conversion to
           | pdf etc - the plan is eventually to self publish and then
           | actually have a book in our hands written by "us"
           | 
           | :-)
        
       | breck wrote:
       | One thing that worries me if you look at history.
       | 
       | Given that someone is willing to leave their entire family and
       | life to embark on a long quest to an unknown land, while many do
       | it for love to get help or knowledge or resources to bring back
       | home to their people, others are doing it because they are
       | looking for a place where they can get away with hate.
       | 
       | Even if an alien civilization were 99% peaceful and good, what is
       | the probability that the members of that civilization who would
       | want to venture out, leave their families behind, and come meet
       | us are the good ones or the ones in the other 1%?
        
       | hehehaha wrote:
       | I am certain there are many more planets inhabited by carbon
       | based intelligence similar to ours. In fact, I believe they look
       | very similar to homo sapiens and that they too are in search of
       | extraterrestrials. Based on rough math we are nowhere near making
       | contacts but I get goosebumps just thinking about the very first
       | contact.
        
       | fidla wrote:
       | I've enjoyed Avi Loeb interviews on Lex Fridman and Joe Rogan. He
       | has a refreshing perspective
        
       | blackrock wrote:
       | Because. We fear they're going to probe us.
        
       | f430 wrote:
       | It's accepted in some scientific circles that ETs are
       | _transdimensional_ or have mastered the ability to project,
       | materialize to cover the vast distances. It 's impossible to
       | become an intergalatic type 2 civilization using physics in the
       | 3D.
       | 
       | Much like the fish in the koi pond can only move on a 2D plane,
       | they wouldn't find us any more or less interesting. To us it
       | looks like they are moving super fast (tic tac video via USN) or
       | teleporting (common UFO sighting characteristic) but all they are
       | doing is exploiting the dimensions beyond the 3D.
       | 
       | I follow the stoned ape theory in that fungi, one of the oldest
       | compound on earth, specifically the psilocybe variety that has a
       | unique chemical formulation that can't be found anywhere else on
       | earth except recently similar chemistry was discovered on the
       | Venus atmosphere (as proof of life) as a form of "self
       | replication" software that increases visual acuity, formation of
       | concepts and language in those that ingest it.
       | Psilocybin is the only 4-phosphorylated indole on this planet.
       | 
       | I'm thinking they might check on the apes that consumed their
       | biological software and see how far they progressed with the same
       | amusement (?) or banality that one would express towards fish
       | tank.
       | 
       | Perhaps they like to show off their technology like dangling a
       | carrot in front of us. "You are getting close yet still far, keep
       | going, and one day you can be just like us!"
        
       | theodric wrote:
       | Because we're the most interesting people we've ever met. End of
       | story.
        
       | 0xbadcafebee wrote:
       | The most depressing thought I had recently was that there aren't
       | any extraterrestrials with the capability of space flight. Pretty
       | sure they exist, but just imagine if _we 're_ the most advanced
       | ones? Kind of embarrassing/sad. Can you imagine traveling to
       | another planet? The aliens gaze at us expecting some
       | technological geniuses, and who walks out but Frank Dunce in his
       | MAGA hat and "I'm with stupid" t-shirt?
        
       | drclau wrote:
       | What bothers me quite a bit, both in more-or-less scientific
       | conversations and in Science Fiction, is that we virtually always
       | assume a human-like psychology for aliens, and we judge what they
       | may want or not based on our thinking. Even when we think about
       | potentially highly advanced aliens, we still assume they'll have
       | a psychology similar to ours, and they'll just be more advanced
       | technologically (ie. the aliens and ants analogy).
       | 
       | Eventually, I did find some cases in Science Fiction, and one in
       | particular stands out as far as I am concerned: the alien entity
       | named Rorschach and the smaller entities named Scramblers, in
       | Firefall, by Peter Watts. If you are a (Hard) SF fan, you must
       | read this one.
       | 
       | Another case I would mention off the top of my head would be the
       | Formics, in Scott Orson's Card "Ender's Game" and sequels, but I
       | think the whole idea was left mostly unexplored.
       | 
       | If you have other examples, please do mention them!
        
         | chii wrote:
         | The "Three Body Problem" trilogy
         | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Three-Body_Problem_(novel) )
         | makes an argument for why the behaviour of an intelligent
         | species is going to mimic humans (or more accurately, humans'
         | behaviour converge towards a universal set of behaviour - one
         | of survival of the fittest). I don't want to spoil the books so
         | i won't discuss any further, but worth a think about if you
         | have read the books.
        
           | drclau wrote:
           | Thanks, I had it on my list. I will pick it up sooner, then.
        
           | patcon wrote:
           | I've only read book 1, but I'm inclined to believe this as
           | well.
           | 
           | This video provides a neat complexity science view of
           | intelligence: https://www.ted.com/talks/alex_wissner_gross_a_
           | new_equation_...
           | 
           | I'm intrigued that it points toward a "curiosity" at the
           | heart of all intelligences, that we will recognize.
        
         | patcon wrote:
         | Not sure if it's non-human enough, but A Fire Upon the Deep had
         | central characters that had a very non-human way of thinking,
         | though perhaps it could be said that they still "thought" like
         | humans in the end. (I recall the specifics were a slow reveal,
         | so I'm reluctant to say much more.)
        
         | tjalfi wrote:
         | John Varley's Eight Worlds series has an alien species called
         | the Invaders. They invaded Earth to protect cetaceans from the
         | effects of human civilization.
         | 
         | The Invaders divide sentient life into three tiers - species
         | like themselves that evolve in gas giants, cetaceans, and
         | vermin; we're in the third category.
         | 
         | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Worlds
        
         | leokennis wrote:
         | I always think, why should any alien resemble us in any way?
         | Couldn't an alien be a sentient cloud of gas that feeds on
         | sulfur? A 20km sentient wide floating rock that doesn't feed at
         | all?
         | 
         | Sort of like the premise of "They're made of meat":
         | https://web.archive.org/web/20190501130711/http://www.terryb...
        
         | spaetzleesser wrote:
         | LWhat bothers me quite a bit, both in more-or-less scientific
         | conversations and in Science Fiction, is that we virtually
         | always assume a human-like psychology for aliens, and we judge
         | what they may want or not based on our thinking. Even when we
         | think about potentially highly advanced aliens, we still assume
         | they'll have a psychology similar to ours, and they'll just be
         | more advanced technologically (ie. the aliens and ants
         | analogy)."
         | 
         | Very true. A lot of our behaviors and instincts are based on
         | how we procreate and the environment we live in. For example if
         | you live forever or don't have the pressure to procreate you
         | will have a totally different perspective on the universe.
         | 
         | Lifeforms that have developed differently most likely would
         | have motivations we can't even fathom to understand.
        
         | burlesona wrote:
         | I agree with you, but I think it's worth remembering/noting
         | that this happens mostly because it's very difficult if not
         | impossible to imagine what a sentient being with a psychology
         | entirely unlike our own would be like.
         | 
         | I think that most people (who think about such things) realize
         | that extraterrestrials, if they exist, may well be more alien
         | than we can even imagine.
         | 
         | But it's fun to imagine things, so we try anyway :)
        
           | f6v wrote:
           | Might be closer to "Solaris", where we just won't get it
           | regardless how hard we try.
        
           | Balgair wrote:
           | For instance, try to imagine a new emotion that is not a
           | composite of the emotions you have.
           | 
           | We know animals have emotions, and they mostly map to our
           | emotions. With less related animals likely having less
           | related emotions to ours (like the emotions of a tuna fish
           | compared to a chimpanzee).
           | 
           | Now, try to map the emotions of life-form that from a
           | completely different tree of life from ours. Their version of
           | emotions may not even be mappable to anything like we can
           | ever experience or imagine.
           | 
           | Emotions are pretty core to our understanding of the universe
           | and ET may have emotions so radically different to ours that
           | their view of the universe is not understandable to us.
        
         | alistairSH wrote:
         | Children of Time & Children of Ruin by Adrian Tchaikovsky
         | 
         | The first chronicles the development of sentient, space-capable
         | spiders. The sequel follows the development of octopuses. I
         | found both to be quick, easy reads - perfect for vacation or a
         | rainy weekend. In both, the psychology of the species, and how
         | humans can relate, is a plot point.
        
       | crazydoggers wrote:
       | > Fermi's paradox is pretentious in that it assumes we humans
       | have some sort of cosmic significance.
       | 
       | I don't at all think this is the issue with Fermi's paradox. I
       | think sentience is an interesting enough phenomenon that others
       | with sentience will be interested. As soon as you understand the
       | mind of the other, there's a basic interest in meeting other
       | minds.
       | 
       | The real issue is simply the vastness of time and space, and
       | perhaps an underestimation of the difficulties involved in
       | bridging those. Especially economic costs of space travel.
       | 
       | And it's kind of like the point made in this clip about the
       | silliness of Fermi's paradox... it's like assuming if no lobster
       | shows up to your dinner party, lobsters don't exist.
       | 
       | https://youtu.be/TK0vmOCHiDs
        
       | Udo wrote:
       | In general we don't assume that of everyone. What we do assume is
       | that at least _some_ aliens would be interested, because we
       | assume intellect comes with innate curiosity. In an advanced
       | culture, even a small number of individuals exhibiting an
       | interest would be enough to form a field of study, just as it is
       | here on Earth.
       | 
       | Asserting that nobody us studying is because we're uninteresting
       | to every single alien creature is a baffling statement, given the
       | odds. The odds are far greater in my opinion that we're alone or
       | at least functionally alone, even though I must admit I hate the
       | notion.
       | 
       | We also don't assume everyone builds megastructures or emits huge
       | technosignatures, but it throws us off that apparently _nobody_
       | does.
        
         | bluetomcat wrote:
         | > We also don't assume everyone builds megastructures or emits
         | huge technosignatures
         | 
         | Popular culture skews our expectations towards two-legged
         | creatures flying on saucers, roughly our size, but forms of
         | intelligent life can manifest in radically different ways at
         | micro and macro levels.
         | 
         | Perhaps, what looks like a sand particle to us might be a
         | complex microorganism, in a complex interconnected self-
         | regulating network, with no physical artifacts of
         | "civilisation". Those microorganisms would also be able to form
         | "mega-structures" by mutating the environment around them, just
         | not at the pace and scale we are accustomed to.
        
           | Udo wrote:
           | Unless every single civilization out there is made up of
           | inert sand particles, that's not a solution for why we don't
           | see anyone. You're right of course that we tend to assume
           | somewhat similar properties to ourselves, because that's what
           | we know, and we tend to assume that we're at least in some
           | ways "normal" - or at least not unique.
           | 
           |  _> with no physical artifacts of  "civilisation"_
           | 
           | I would not be surprised if there are quite a few intelligent
           | organisms out there that are not tool users. Earth itself has
           | a few, as well. These would potentially make great candidates
           | for a visit, if we could detect their biome from afar.
           | 
           |  _> just not at the pace and scale we are accustomed to_
           | 
           | I don't disagree that these are probably out there. But
           | that's not the same as asserting that every single culture
           | besides our own is on a completely different and
           | imperceptible scale than us. We'd expect at least _some_
           | organisms to build tools that we can detect, that is unless
           | we 're one of the first civilizations in the universe.
           | Another solution would be that FTL travel is possible and/or
           | thermodynamics can be at least partially circumvented, but
           | even if such techology existed, it would have to be
           | _ubiquitous_ in order to explain why we don 't see anyone.
        
         | bluGill wrote:
         | I would assume curiosity is a requirement for an advanced
         | civilization. You can be a cow eating grass on the plains
         | avoiding the tiger trying to catch you by instinct alone, and
         | it might work. However one of the early steps to advanced
         | civilizations is figuring out if there is a better way - maybe
         | you avoid the tiger better, maybe you store up grass for
         | winter, but curiosity is at the root of advanced civilization.
        
       | dqpb wrote:
       | Well, let's unpack this:
       | 
       | Let x = Extraterrestrials
       | 
       | Let y = want to visit us
       | 
       | x might y = x might y or x might not y
       | 
       | True = True or False
       | 
       | Boolean logic suggests this statement is indeed True.
        
       | jkingsbery wrote:
       | I have no way to verify the author's claim, but it strikes me as
       | likely self-refuting to argue that life seems so rare because
       | actually it's super common.
        
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