Post B4iRdOwaI6E3MS6uAa by davep@infosec.exchange
(DIR) More posts by davep@infosec.exchange
(DIR) Post #B4iQPdmaDyLnNGJ5yS by futurebird@sauropods.win
2026-03-28T12:04:39Z
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If there were a democrat in the white house the stock market would be tanking right now at the news of supply chain chokepoints in oil. But, under Trump the market has reacted much less. It's easy to make the mistake of thinking of the market as a force of nature but it's really just the aggregated decisions of a few thousand wealthy people and institutions.
(DIR) Post #B4iQZEYerbka2NMsNM by futurebird@sauropods.win
2026-03-28T12:06:22Z
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The market is supposed to be objective and motivated only by profit but these decisions are informed by the biases of those people. Worse, it's deeply informed by what those few thousand wealthy people *think* their peers will do. So you have people saying "no one believes Trump when he says the war is over, but we expect the market to react to what he says so we will react in anticipation of that... thus creating the reaction."But, this doesn't go on forever.
(DIR) Post #B4iQluHpXlJivnXXGq by futurebird@sauropods.win
2026-03-28T12:08:40Z
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At some point what the president says will become irrelevant to the market. His words are already irrelevant to many people, and to many nations because he simply lies far too often. It's like making investment decisions based on the output of a fortune cookie. The previous observation that the market would be tanking with a democrat in office is based on similar circular logic. "we expect everyone else will pull out so we will move first"
(DIR) Post #B4iR0sRqf2jRZbMdiy by futurebird@sauropods.win
2026-03-28T12:11:22Z
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I think there is something deeper at work as well. The thousands of wealthy people who make up the market see Trump as someone who protects their interests. If there is economic pain they expect that he will shield them. This is how many of the ordinary people who support him see it as well. Both of them are being naive and duped. There is only one person Trump cares about. He might care a little more about rich people, but only because he's a member of that group.
(DIR) Post #B4iRGWgFMQbeh9Yppw by vestige@sleepyhe.ad
2026-03-28T12:14:07Z
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@futurebird Many of those large investors operate strategies that thrive on volatility and exploit access to insider knowledge (or, at least, things you and I don't know), and those strategies are often far more profitable than "buy-and-hold" Boglehead investing.
(DIR) Post #B4iRRe0cSBIIbrOKkS by thierna@mastodon.green
2026-03-28T12:16:09Z
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@futurebird the market is not that many people if you put it like this.
(DIR) Post #B4iRdOwaI6E3MS6uAa by davep@infosec.exchange
2026-03-28T12:18:18Z
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@futurebird And because they give him money.
(DIR) Post #B4iSwXN5HYA2xFC5oW by InkySchwartz@mastodon.social
2026-03-28T12:32:58Z
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@futurebird Two things from Kai Ryssdal of APMs Marketplace come to mind:1. As he said last Thursday about this lack of market response to these disruptions and the war: "The market is an idiot".2. More regularly, "The Stock Market is NOT the Economy." It is part of the Economy but doesn't represent most of our day to day economic interactions.Just a pre coffee thought.
(DIR) Post #B4iTuZALjrWPtZrThw by kralcttam@mastodon.social
2026-03-28T12:43:48Z
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@futurebird This is definitely happening already. On Thursday Trump came out and did his little “everything is awesome” routine and Friday oil stayed above $110, and the U.S. stock market dropped another 1.5%
(DIR) Post #B4iVtq0hpG91kx8CI4 by chessert@mastodon.online
2026-03-28T13:06:05Z
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@futurebird I’ve had quite a few excellent and accurate fortunes from cookies. I’ve never heard Trump say a single thing that’s useful or true. 🤷🏻♂️
(DIR) Post #B4idw9pdtr9pRbZcUC by mancavgeek@social.teamb.space
2026-03-28T14:35:53Z
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@futurebird This is precisely the problem I have with "The Stock Market" (and particularly the FTSE100) and "The Economy" being used interchangeably here in the UK.Stock prices are routinely manipulated, pretty much exclusively to the benefit of the already wealthy, I refer to this as the "imaginary" economy because many valuations are plucked out of thin air - look at the valuations for many tech firms who have never turned a profit, especially in the AI field.The REAL economy, on the other hand, just chugging along merrily, mostly powered by the less-than-wealthy - this economy is based on the movement of money, often in the form of goods or services, from one person to another - and here is the interesting bit.Those with the least contribute the most.The ultra wealthy will spend a bit of their income, and stash the rest in stocks, shares, and offshore accounts.This is money that is removed from the economy.Those at the bottom put ~100% (often more) of their income back into the economy, paying bills and buying essentials.Yet that is ignored in favour of inflated, imaginary valuations of companies that would often be failing if they weren't able to access financing because they are so over valued.
(DIR) Post #B4ieK12YEtHN7vzJRY by futurebird@sauropods.win
2026-03-28T14:40:30Z
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@mancavgeek The market is just like a place where rich people get to vote based on how right they are and the extent to which we allow it to drive policy and decisions is anti-democratic in the one person one vote view of the world.
(DIR) Post #B4ifmwWwBZzZUYYfuy by mancavgeek@social.teamb.space
2026-03-28T14:56:48Z
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@futurebird "No taxation without representation" was the cry that at least partially founded the US, yet today the wealthy pay comparatively little yet have sll the access.
(DIR) Post #B4j8sZxfuEpzu86WIK by nazokiyoubinbou@mastodon.social
2026-03-28T20:22:51Z
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@futurebird I think you're absolutely right.And you know, even now Trump has been intentionally making the markets freak out then try to un-freak after doing so to help his friends with money do some rather illegal investments/divestments. If they don't hurry up and catch on that he's manipulating them into losing a heck of a lot of money sooner or later he'll tank the markets just doing this even if nothing else he did affected it...
(DIR) Post #B4jAEx0125sXgCQkgi by futurebird@sauropods.win
2026-03-28T20:38:03Z
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@Linebyline @mancavgeek "Listen, Smaug, is it OK if I just call ya 'Smaug' ? ... "
(DIR) Post #B4jak17OMl9OEvM4Ho by kongakong@masto.ai
2026-03-29T01:34:59Z
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@futurebird The market is never objective. Otherwise Alan Greenspan wouldn't coin the term "Irrational Exuberance".
(DIR) Post #B4jkgqO0oGlZd0Fq9Q by anne_twain@theblower.au
2026-03-29T03:26:25Z
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@futurebird I used to say this about some small children when I was a teacher: never thought I'd say it about an adult, let alone the US President:His mind is like a lucky dip - you never what you're going to get.