Post B2odIBaHx9R0vDuwF6 by ryan@bxe.io
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 (DIR) Post #B2odIBaHx9R0vDuwF6 by ryan@bxe.io
       2026-01-30T16:12:51.660605Z
       
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       Per Alastair Crooke, Trump has once again asked Iran for permission to bomb something inconsequential of theirs so that it looks good on TV and allow them to return the same, and Iran has said no.No mention here that the US and Israel stopped bombing last summer as soon as Russia announced they were prepared to enter the conflict. If this isn’t vacuous bluffing, it will end with another embarrassing defeat and the permanent removal of American military presence from many countriesIran has reached a definitive decision based on two considerations to respond immediately and comprehensively to any U.S. attack, regardless of its level and scope. Such an attack is assessed as an existential threat from Tehran’s perspective At the same time, Iran sent a message to all countries in the region, from Baku to Riyadh, stating that any attack launched from the territory or airspace of these countries will result in an attack on those countries themselves. For Iran, a next US–Israeli attack would be an “existential war”, eliminating any incentive for restraint and unleashing a conflict that would be impossible to control. If catastrophe is to be avoided, Trump must rethink a “surrender-driven strategy” and move toward a “broad, face-saving deal” with Iran - ending 47 years of confrontation before the region is pushed into irreversible war.https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/irans-strategic-decision-to-restore