Post B10pHZ5I9Eo8giD6Js by kaced@infosec.exchange
(DIR) More posts by kaced@infosec.exchange
(DIR) Post #B10DyiGA76VzL3RUGm by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-12-07T10:41:43Z
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Polymarket and Kalshi are NOT gambling companies. How could you say that?I'm literally crying right now. When will the misinformation stop?Please understand that it can't be gambling if there is a chart like it's the stock market and if there is an app where you can look at the chart before you bet- I mean invest in the prediction market. Charts and graphs mean that this is science and science can't be gambling.
(DIR) Post #B10E78Jl79YUTN8jLc by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-12-07T10:43:14Z
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Hey anyone want to start a "prediction market" for scientific discoveries? Paper publication and peer review results? We could get as rich as sin. By sinning. At some point I start feeling foolish for not just giving up and joining the circus. We would need a good lawyer though. Who knows the law around here?
(DIR) Post #B10EOigT9tNeBS9G4m by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-12-07T10:46:24Z
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"But a prediction market for scientific discoveries might have perverse impacts on journals, and scientists."No no no... gambling on things has no impact on the things. No one would ever use inside influence to make a quick buck by changing the outcome of an event with a lot of bets placed on it. This is all pure and above board and an excellent idea.
(DIR) Post #B10EVWR95jrsE8DymO by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-12-07T10:47:33Z
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@sarble Can I bet on when civilization will collapse? You got that inside lead? Help a girl out here.
(DIR) Post #B10Enxmy8VTWGoE2z2 by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-12-07T10:50:58Z
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*sings*"And the devil will drag you under, by the sharp lapels of your checker'd coat."
(DIR) Post #B10ExcKImtSYbMQ6xk by JoshJers@mastodon.gamedev.place
2025-12-07T10:51:35Z
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@futurebird I asked all the LLMs and they all agreed that this was true
(DIR) Post #B10Ez7DRQYEMh0vRgG by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-12-07T10:52:51Z
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@wakame yay...good lord
(DIR) Post #B10FMs3nQWkKdek2eO by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-12-07T10:57:11Z
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@sarble This "prediction market" rebranding of gambling is Thirty Years Old. They were talking about this when I was in college. "Since people have to bet money the predictions of these markets are more accurate than polls."This statement can be true... for a time. It's true as long as only a small number of people are paying attention to the markets. As the profile of the markets grows their predictive ability tanks and perverse feedback loops are created.
(DIR) Post #B10FcbuJFd51AroFMm by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-12-07T11:00:06Z
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@sarble Eventually there is enough money in the market that manipulating the results becomes too lucrative to avoid. This is why even though this "idea" was proposed 30 years ago very few people were biting. We have entered a regulation-free space suddenly where we may learn why these things are a terrible idea. But, people have known this for thousands of years. It's why gambling is "a sin" -- it produces nothing and only incentivizes lying and cheating.
(DIR) Post #B10Fwc1cWRiLKclauu by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-12-07T11:03:42Z
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@sarble It is important that gambling is limited to narrow spheres such as lotteries and maybe horse races. Even then you get cheating and corruption. It's not good for predicting the future because as soon as people think this is true you get manipulation. Then people try to ride the manipulation to make money. For the love of God go make a real product and sell it like normal capitalists. Stop trying to milk someone's uncle's gambling addiction to make a quick buck.
(DIR) Post #B10GWHFDGJKBJ38AZE by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-12-07T11:10:11Z
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@sarble There is a reason people associate gambling with some guy who comes and breaks your legs for not paying your debt. It's bottom feeder stuff, you sell a bet or you make loans when you have nothing of real value to offer the world. And people latch on to all of these desperate dreams and end up murderously angry at each other. We KNOW this is how it works. Putting it in an app with a cute little chart and calling it a "prediction market" won't change that one bit.
(DIR) Post #B10HIGqe2RxXyeWZRg by thierry_van_kerm@mastodon.social
2025-12-07T11:18:49Z
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@futurebird @sarble @futurebird Second market stock exchange should be banned. Full stop. It doesn't bring A CENT to the company concerned with the stock exchange/gambling
(DIR) Post #B10HJuJslmMKgZyqXY by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-12-07T11:19:11Z
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@sarble Though I have to admit that claiming that having people betting somehow creates value by creating predictions of future events is very creative. But if predictions were your product you'd be selling the predictions. The whole operation would be inverted. You'd select random people to place bets, give them play money and keep the results secret to sell. But no one cares. It's just gambling and people will get hurt because of it.
(DIR) Post #B10HRqUAuMvj6ya0tE by dnkboston@apobangpo.space
2025-12-07T11:19:24Z
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@futurebird Possibly because my maternal grandfather was a gambling addict, but I look at the stock market in the same way, and can't stop thinking about everyone in it as a sucker. Yeah, there are some whales, but, as they say, the house always wins, so it's just a matter of time. (Which is why the whales keep trying to control the SEC, but I digress.) @sarble
(DIR) Post #B10HjOu0CY3mm920CO by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-12-07T11:23:45Z
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@dnkboston @sarble Gambling can be a prison for some people and it hurts to think about all of the people who will be exploited in this way. I don't think your skepticism of even "legitimate" markets is misplaced. That dream of just making the right call and getting so rich is very seductive. The emotional rush of the whole process has deep impacts on the human brain. It exploits that good plucky part of us that always wants to "try again"
(DIR) Post #B10HrFiqDTV0cYYSum by stevewfolds@mastodon.world
2025-12-07T11:25:08Z
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@futurebird @sarble Met a debt collector who bragged that he’d hit more kneecaps than home runs with his bat in ‘72.
(DIR) Post #B10HsbLLJcc7y0Cswy by thierry_van_kerm@mastodon.social
2025-12-07T11:25:24Z
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@futurebird @sarble @futurebird And that's on this second market that billionaires make their insane wealth. All at the expenses of the company they gamble the stock of
(DIR) Post #B10IwrMnmYgOm8U3Ye by dnkboston@apobangpo.space
2025-12-07T11:36:41Z
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@futurebird Ooh, that's a chillingly accurate way to put it @sarble
(DIR) Post #B10Wl2VjvBp1DnvEky by Kierkegaanks@beige.party
2025-12-07T14:12:05Z
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@futurebird people calling it should be bombed by pete!!!!!!
(DIR) Post #B10YKtsXapxwpQFc6i by michael_w_busch@mastodon.online
2025-12-07T14:29:45Z
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@futurebird I regret to report knowing that people have tried to set up "prediction markets" for gambling on science. e.g. Robin Hanson set one up for people gambling on fusion research.(Hanson is also known for being a sexually harassing creep and for promoting an apocalyptic AI cult).
(DIR) Post #B10ZAeLAbp0JhCJm76 by kludgekml@sunbeam.city
2025-12-07T14:39:08Z
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@futurebird @sarble I mean, there are other reasons for that. It's changed in the last 30 years, but in the UK at least gambling debts used to be legally unenforceable (ie if you owe someone 10 grand, they can't sue you for it), so the only recourse for bookies was to either ban debtors or rough them up. I think in the US it's kind of patchwork, but it may be that a similar history of "the only way I can get my money is by force" exists. (Although that doesn't invalidate your point, since it means that only people relaxed about violence can go into the profession and make money)
(DIR) Post #B10bnGpw84A80CFhnk by trurl@mastodon.sdf.org
2025-12-07T15:08:28Z
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@futurebird I worked on https://www.iarpa.gov/research-programs/fuse back when it was still active. The basic idea was to predict trends in research to assist humans in understanding new research proposals. (One version of the pitch was that it should be possible to use the results of this program to review BAA future proposals.) I vaguely recall that prediction markets may have been in the running.
(DIR) Post #B10kJxr2WakkJrrvt2 by Jestbill@mastodon.world
2025-12-07T16:44:03Z
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@futurebird @sarble When did OTB happen in NY? Mark that date as the first definite sign that the economy was going south.If people are doing well, they don't throw money at lotteries etc.The NEW NEW NEW betting with apps is just more evidence that people are hurting.
(DIR) Post #B10opfQkxY2eGIwoam by kaced@infosec.exchange
2025-12-07T17:34:37Z
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@futurebird yeah and I mean obviously the stock market is not gambling on your expectations of other people’s expectations of your expectations
(DIR) Post #B10pHZ5I9Eo8giD6Js by kaced@infosec.exchange
2025-12-07T17:39:41Z
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@futurebird @sarble you probably can but it might be hard to collect when it happens
(DIR) Post #B12mHPi75YSe4LWbq4 by Tom_frog@mastodon.social
2025-12-08T16:15:27Z
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@futurebird I mean… short selling is kind of a prediction market…. But how about a prediction market on the death of public figures? No negative incentives there, right?