Post B0efu237dDcwVRmTui by marick@mstdn.social
(DIR) More posts by marick@mstdn.social
(DIR) Post #B0eftkWwlamyAjb2u0 by marick@mstdn.social
2025-11-25T17:24:12Z
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An interesting analysis of hidden increase in economic precarity in the US. Results are extreme enough that I’d like to see the analysis repeated for Scandinavian countries or Germany. https://www.yesigiveafig.com/p/part-1-my-life-is-a-lieKey points: (1/7)
(DIR) Post #B0eftlf8YcvzgQR6J6 by marick@mstdn.social
2025-11-25T17:24:12Z
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* Economic precarity is when your expenses are close enough to your income + savings that a major event will lead to bankruptcy/default. That in turn cuts you off from the credit market, anything that involves a credit check (like most rental housing), etc. High chance of permanent “economic inertness.” (2/7)
(DIR) Post #B0eftmeorIH4ljIMS0 by marick@mstdn.social
2025-11-25T17:24:12Z
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* When thinking about precarity, you don’t get to say that cars are way better than they were in 1963. The question is: how much does it cost to get to work? Or: what does the minimal car cost? It’s more expensive than in 1963.* Minimal housing is way more expensive. Healthcare ditto. * At one time, the poverty line was the precarity line. Unfortunately, it was set to 3X the cost of food (because that was the easiest to measure). (3/7)
(DIR) Post #B0eftu758c2btPZWyW by marick@mstdn.social
2025-11-25T17:24:13Z
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* Of the necessities, food is the one that’s gone up least. As a result, the precarity line (not part of govt. statistics) is deviating more and more from the poverty line (which is). That’s hiding a large increase in the number of precarious families. (4/7)
(DIR) Post #B0efu237dDcwVRmTui by marick@mstdn.social
2025-11-25T17:24:13Z
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* That accounts for why people described as comfortably middle class are (and have been) so grumpy about the economy: they have nice things (because not-nice-things are unavailable), but are increasingly aware their lives are… precarious. (For larger and larger segments of the population, volatility of life outcomes has increased. Bigger downside risk.) (5/7)
(DIR) Post #B0efu9P0IGI1JL4YUa by marick@mstdn.social
2025-11-25T17:24:13Z
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* Things are exacerbated because the social safety net is tied to the poverty line. The result is that benefits like Medicaid, income support, etc. taper off well before the line of precarity is reached. Medicaid goes away at $45,000, meaning a family earning that is slightly worse off than one earning $35,000. (6/7)
(DIR) Post #B0efuGhh9AOrxKs568 by marick@mstdn.social
2025-11-25T17:24:13Z
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‘At $40,000, you are drowning, but the state gives you a life vest. At $100,000, you are drowning, but the state says you are a “high earner” and ties an anchor to your ankle called “Market Price.”’Two things I wish I knew about Germany, etc. – what the precarity line is. (He has the US line at $136,000, which seems high.) And whether the social safety net is similarly mismatched to the precarity line. (via @creachadair, @gvwilson) (7/7)
(DIR) Post #B0efuNpOevii3FWpZg by marick@mstdn.social
2025-11-27T00:59:06Z
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@creachadair @gvwilson See also: https://zirk.us/@interfluidity/115618748366990424"someone does a lot of quite questionable envelope maths to reach a really important conclusion, that conclusions being that the way the modern economy is set up, it’s basically impossible to afford entirely normal aspirations like having a young family"
(DIR) Post #B0efuVJQpeu9GQdPrU by marick@mstdn.social
2025-11-27T01:04:30Z
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@creachadair @gvwilson I feel rather smug about having described the original post with “precarity line” rather than “poverty line”, since the point is that once poverty and precarity were the same thing, but now they’re not. I think the original article erred in using the same word for two different things, causing people to react (reasonably) to “$140K is poverty” with “bullshit”; whereas the better framing is “$140K does not make the average family safe.”
(DIR) Post #B0efudBDa55VfGqyAa by marick@mstdn.social
2025-11-27T01:08:54Z
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@creachadair @gvwilson It’s important to realize that people don’t react to words like “poverty” by considering definitions, much less numerical thresholds. Such emotionally-freighted words have connotations and implications, and people will work from those first and most strongly. Your “well, actually, here are some facts” *does* *not* *cut* *it* when it comes up against gut reactions.