Post B0LDHkr2h6C28Q79ay by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
(DIR) More posts by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
(DIR) Post #B0LDGVXY9BqgLfP01Q by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T14:44:31Z
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What is really going on in this society that elected Donald Trump president a second time? I wrote about three stubborn myths about Trump’s support – and why America has experienced a de-alignment rather than a rightward realignment. My new piece for Zeit Online – and some thoughts in English:🧵 https://www.zeit.de/kultur/2025-11/donald-trump-unterstuetzung-beliebtheit-maga-bewegung-usa?freebie=882372d9
(DIR) Post #B0LDGWzakPsEqvWuMy by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T14:48:10Z
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After the election, prominent commentators immediately reached for grand explanations that were intended to match the emotional impact of what many perceived to be a shocking victory. This was nothing short of an era-defining rightward realignment, were were told.
(DIR) Post #B0LDGXkjv7aVD9aYrI by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T14:49:02Z
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Ideas of a populist revolt against ignorant liberal elites, a backlash against “woke” radicalism are stubbornly persistent – as is the idea that Trump emerged from the election with a broad mandate to correct course and impose his radical agenda. But it’s just not true.
(DIR) Post #B0LDGYsvi9jWiqQcGO by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T14:49:56Z
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In this piece, I tackle three building blocks of the misleading “realignment” narrative: The idea that U.S. society moved right in accordance with the broader outlines of Trumpism’s vision; that Trump is the tribune of the working class; that he is building a stable multiracial coalition.
(DIR) Post #B0LDGa0lWVayDR6O7E by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T14:50:42Z
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Lots and lots specific empirical information, plenty of links to studies and surveys in my piece.We now have a really solid empirical base for most of these questions. Those who cling to disproven, implausible myths often do so because they find them politically useful.
(DIR) Post #B0LDGbJag0FQG6uw64 by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T14:51:25Z
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Trump does not represent the “will of the people” – a stable majority of Americans, including about two thirds of those who call themselves independents, reject core tenets of Trumpism. It is the Republican Party that is moving away from the center of American society.
(DIR) Post #B0LDGcazullYEO4Lrs by ricci@discuss.systems
2025-11-17T15:50:30Z
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@tzimmer_history Yes, exactly. I live in a heavily Republican state, and most of the party's efforts here are focused on decreasing the People's ability to participate in politics, as their policies become less and less popular
(DIR) Post #B0LDGgGaGboVcEY6bY by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T14:52:26Z
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The tribune of the poor, the downtrodden? Studies clearly indicate that Trump’s most ardent supporters, especially in poorer areas, are, by local standards, quite wealthy / financially stable. Economic anxieties are mostly downstream from anxieties over racial and cultural status.
(DIR) Post #B0LDGlJxTUU3I9AN3g by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T14:53:27Z
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Yes, Trump dominates among the *white* working class (if defined as people without a college degree). But even here, religion played a key role: In 2024, about 86 percent of non-college white evangelicals voted for Trump – vs. only a minority of the non-evangelical white working class.
(DIR) Post #B0LDGqIMypBSifSfmC by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T14:54:14Z
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What about education polarization though, often presented as the root of everything that is happening in U.S. politics – the closest thing we have to a widely accepted master narrative? Its impact is dramatically overstated; its implications are generally misinterpreted.
(DIR) Post #B0LDGvSplLWckZObHU by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T14:56:12Z
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The idea of a homogeneous college-educated liberal elite, when that also includes everyone who graduated from the many conservative and religious colleges, makes no sense; and there is little correlation between education and political alignment among people of color.
(DIR) Post #B0LDH0XGuH2uTmViOO by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T14:57:00Z
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Amon white people, the correlation between racial resentment and their vote is much, much stronger than between educational attainment and political alignment. In fact, if you control for racial resentment, education polarization basically disappears.
(DIR) Post #B0LDH5L339EtNJpWXA by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T14:58:26Z
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Almost everyone with a high level of racial resentment tended to vote for Trump in the 2024 election, regardless of educational attainment. Conversely, those with a low racial resentment score tended to support Harris, whether they had a college degree or not.
(DIR) Post #B0LDHAdfLM6PoVZxkO by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T15:00:42Z
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Put differently: If you look at a group of voters with the same education, their level of racial resentment strongly predicts their vote choice. But in a group with the same level of racial resentment, educational attainment does not allow for a strong prediction of their politics.
(DIR) Post #B0LDHFrJw0zo0J0RE0 by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T15:02:29Z
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No matter where we look: Religious identity, racial and cultural resentment, attitudes towards the religious/racial/cultural pluralization of American society are dividing the country - and shaping the political conflict- much more strongly than education polarization.
(DIR) Post #B0LDHKnFaZi9J88l4i by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T15:04:23Z
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What about the fact that Trump has indeed strengthened his support among people of color between 2016 and 2024? Well, first of all, whatever gains he made with Latinos, especially, seem to have evaporated a year later – not exactly indicating a lasting realignment.
(DIR) Post #B0LDHPYXsfv44yIaLg by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T15:06:06Z
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We do see a sorting of the non-white electorate according to identity and ideology – something that has shaped the white electorate for decades. But that doesn’t mean Trumpism as a political project isn’t defined by a reactionary ethno-national vision for America.
(DIR) Post #B0LDHTf4cLWAoNNr4y by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T15:07:43Z
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Among Latinos, for instance, support for Trump is concentrated heavily among protestants, and especially evangelicals – and among those who favor a strict anti-immigration policy and generally regard the prospect of a pluralistic, liberal society very skeptically.
(DIR) Post #B0LDHXzmVISWFl6Rua by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T15:09:22Z
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Trump does not have a stable conservative/right-leaning majority behind him, he does not represent the “will of the people.” America remains deeply divided, with a numerical majority rejecting the reactionary agenda and generally supporting the vision of liberal pluralism.
(DIR) Post #B0LDHcJ4TWGXck9uXA by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T15:11:40Z
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However, both major parties are vastly unpopular, and trust in established institutions has been declining massively.America is not experiencing a realignment as much as it is going through a de-alignment of the established order.
(DIR) Post #B0LDHgR17uzyQXuJTU by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T15:15:52Z
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If and when Trump leaves the scene, the country will still face a dauting task: Who can channel the disruptive political energies of a society in which the established institutions have lost the people’s trust into a (small-d) democratic direction?
(DIR) Post #B0LDHkr2h6C28Q79ay by tzimmer_history@mastodon.social
2025-11-17T15:31:41Z
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I am grateful to Zeit Online for giving me the space (about 2,500 words) for such a deep dive. I’m hoping to make an English version available via my own newsletter, Democracy Americana, soon.If you’re interested in such long-form explorations, please subscribe:https://democracyamericana.com/posts
(DIR) Post #B0LDQGkvy92FONJjNY by faraiwe@mstdn.social
2025-11-17T15:52:19Z
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@ricci @tzimmer_history this is typical circumstances, might I add. Count me in that group.Without outrageous gerrymandering and voter suppression, the GOP probably wouldn't have won a single election since the 1970s.But here we are.
(DIR) Post #B0LDRtWDKuGztyCtxQ by ricci@discuss.systems
2025-11-17T15:52:39Z
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@tzimmer_history I strongly agree. Trump's voters are getting essentially none of the things they supposedly voted for, except for racism and sexism. The ones that still say he's doing a good job are saying that based on these specific things.
(DIR) Post #B0LDuIDf5omwcO4S1o by ricci@discuss.systems
2025-11-17T15:57:44Z
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@faraiwe @tzimmer_history It starts even earlier than that here: we have two ways for candidates to get on the ballot. They can be selected at the party convention, or they can gather signatures to force a primary. The party convention is attended by hard right activists, so they always nominate someone with very regressive policies. In a primary between a signature gathering candidate and a convention candidate, the signature candidate basically always wins, and often ends up being broadly popular in the state (see: our current governor, or former senator Mitt Romney). So of course the party has been trying to end this for years.
(DIR) Post #B0LE6zwuKfbPicICJc by faraiwe@mstdn.social
2025-11-17T16:00:02Z
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@ricci @tzimmer_history 117% yup. They will use any- and everything to avoid a every-voter-counts, free election, because on a one-to-one vote, popular election they'd get shot down so ugly, it'd be existential (party ends).