Post B0BL0ylmmADQjfGmJs by screwturn@mastodon.social
(DIR) More posts by screwturn@mastodon.social
(DIR) Post #B0BKhBBssxR5T02HVg by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-11-12T21:26:42Z
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My dad wants me to get him a “mega millions” ticket. I keep telling him I teach statistics but he won’t listen. Whelp best stop at the bodega on the way home I suppose.
(DIR) Post #B0BKpmWtwZwlaWy5lg by Extra_Special_Carbon@mastodon.world
2025-11-12T21:28:08Z
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@futurebird May as well get one for yourself while your giving up on math.
(DIR) Post #B0BL0ylmmADQjfGmJs by screwturn@mastodon.social
2025-11-12T21:30:12Z
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@futurebird When the whatever lottery reach a billion-dollar payout, a bunch of people with stats backgrounds bought a ticket just because it was something interesting to own. I bet at least one had some secret daydreams though
(DIR) Post #B0BL3N1VZYjOXHlQNE by SecularJeffrey@ohai.social
2025-11-12T21:30:38Z
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@futurebird As long as you can afford it, cheap price for a dream…Just one though!
(DIR) Post #B0BLEErCH6xiOU7hsO by timo21@mastodon.sdf.org
2025-11-12T21:32:34Z
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@futurebird The worst thing that could happen is not to buy the ticket and then a nearby establishment sells the winning ticket. The domestic trouble is not worth it.
(DIR) Post #B0BLNmsl8hy4WlPJVA by NicksWorld@mastodon.stickbear.me
2025-11-12T21:34:19Z
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@lisamelton @futurebird Yeah, you're better off going to a casino.
(DIR) Post #B0BLY209mUBuJakggy by weldon@mstdn.io
2025-11-12T21:36:07Z
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@futurebird I find stupidity taxing, but I still play.
(DIR) Post #B0BMAtesjb9XjVKj7g by Brett@aus.social
2025-11-12T21:43:13Z
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@futurebird I got a lot more comfortable with lotteries when I realised people aren't buying a chance for a big payout, they're buying the fantasy of getting one.
(DIR) Post #B0BMI1myu4GCycWR72 by mtechman@mastodon.ie
2025-11-12T21:44:31Z
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@futurebird One of my grad school colleagues won $16 million and his wife quit her daycare job and he bought "some new shirts".
(DIR) Post #B0BMi7JqxsLdepL1LU by mira@shark.community
2025-11-12T21:49:08Z
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@futurebird I know the statistics also, and when MegaMillions or PowerBall gets to be be big prize money, I’ll occasionally throw some money away for a strip of tickets. I know the probability of winning is less than me living to 150 yrs old, but someone always wins the pot eventually, and it might be me this time (assuming I actually go to the c-store to buy one). So much I’d love to do for my community
(DIR) Post #B0BO7jMqjsLOr8W7AO by PizzaDemon@mastodon.online
2025-11-12T22:05:03Z
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@futurebird it's $5 a play now! Way back I calcd the expected value of a powerball ticket taking into account all the minor prizes and getting a pre-tax payout from the purchase of a post-tax change. Then they changed everything and I never bothered.I'm at gut feel of $750M stated annuity value for PB and $1.1B for Mega.
(DIR) Post #B0BOaGXJ0oohpq0wYy by bit@ohai.social
2025-11-12T22:10:13Z
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@futurebird My mom liked to buy lottery tickets. I once suggested that I could make a personal lottery just for her, I would issue those tickets and give her the same chances, and payouts as the original. To prove to her she would lose money in the long run, and to actually save that money and buy her something useful with it. She didn't take me up on that offer though.
(DIR) Post #B0BPTwfU4ITcQqODZI by sabik@rants.au
2025-11-12T22:20:13Z
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@futurebird Non-linear utility of money?
(DIR) Post #B0BPbnoWs64xHvMomO by dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org
2025-11-12T22:21:43Z
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@futurebirdAll you gotta do is buy a Util-o-meter and scan him and see if his expected utility is positive.
(DIR) Post #B0BRP2QvPEH4lyMr20 by paulc@mstdn.social
2025-11-12T22:41:48Z
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@futurebird Yes, you are lighting the money on fire but it is entertainment for him. Whether thinking about what he would do with the money or the thrill of checking the results. I assume less expensive than going to a movie
(DIR) Post #B0BSoJ18z1m1OwvAa8 by ChuckMcManis@chaos.social
2025-11-12T22:57:32Z
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@futurebird Think of it this way, he might teach you the difference between "zero chance of winning" and "very close to, but not zero, chance of winning." 😉 I will confess that when it's over $750M dollars I do give up one soda a week to get a single, random, number pick. Until it goes back down again.
(DIR) Post #B0BTdKTXK2ssgxX0TI by SpaceLifeForm@infosec.exchange
2025-11-12T23:06:47Z
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@futurebird My mum pulled the same stunt. She just wanted me to show up because she was lonely. Winning anything was just a bonus, which almost never happened.
(DIR) Post #B0BWNoVoB9D74tt4Uq by jrdepriest@infosec.exchange
2025-11-12T23:37:33Z
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@futurebird you still get a dopamine hit even if you lose because before you know for sure your brain is thinking about it pretty hard. If you know the math, is your brain immune to it?
(DIR) Post #B0Bbzyg7KRTpNoj6S8 by HamonWry@mastodon.world
2025-11-13T00:40:31Z
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@futurebird You’re not buying a winning ticket. You’re making a donation to the person who does.
(DIR) Post #B0BdwIxQBnvJ1mCG8G by falcennial@mastodon.social
2025-11-13T01:02:17Z
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@futurebird another interesting post.one thing I have learned is people dont buy the ticket to gain money, they are paying to do an activity in which they feel the excitement of possibility. paying money to activate emotions seems looney, but it's very common. this is just a very straightforward form – so straightforward folks may not know that's what they're doing! when asked they say "gotta be in it to win it!" which is the affirmation of the excitement activity, not their financial strategy
(DIR) Post #B0BeOaDJclEsei7Cme by TheZorse@hear-me.social
2025-11-13T01:07:23Z
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@futurebird It could still be him!
(DIR) Post #B0BeXgv63nNY3ow8KO by elfin@mstdn.social
2025-11-13T01:08:59Z
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@futurebird Someone I know asked me something similar. Went to Corner Store for smokes nd beer and she wanted me to pick up a lottery ticket.1. I know nothing about all these lottery games and I'm not deciding and getting it wrong and getting my ass chewed.2. I took StatAnalysis for two years in College/Uni and it's part of my daily work to some degree or another.Me: No, you can go in and get one with your own money, I can't stop you, but I will not facilitate numerical madness.
(DIR) Post #B0BgfrpRaLBO7QJplg by shansterable@ohai.social
2025-11-13T01:32:56Z
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@futurebird The Washington state lottery used to have a slogan they used in TV ads in the 90s:"Some lucky dog is going to win it!"It stuck with me and I do buy a lottery ticket now and again. I mean, the slogan IS true, even though the odds are against ME being that lucky dog.
(DIR) Post #B0BwZPBokaPepDizMe by argonaut@mastodon.social
2025-11-13T04:31:02Z
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@futurebird @lisamelton once i had a friend tell me “statistics are only for the losers” and there i knew i probably would be fine and he probably would not
(DIR) Post #B0CPvSnktp5z4KL9X6 by llewelly@sauropods.win
2025-11-13T09:59:59Z
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@futurebird would buysomeone elsea fractionof a dreamwith a little piece of your soul?