Post AzprmGKfrR1S7ZU0PI by radiojammor@mastodon.scot
 (DIR) More posts by radiojammor@mastodon.scot
 (DIR) Post #Azprm3pkKb9XMAv8XA by radiojammor@mastodon.scot
       2025-11-02T10:22:50Z
       
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       Have been looking at the Highlands & Islands region for #SE2026 #HR26 as polling suggests that the SNP may lose a constituency to the Lib Dems (Caithness, Sutherland and Ross) & how this might affect the regional outcome & whether #SNP1SGP2 would still be the best strategy.It is: a #PIVA 🧵1/5
       
 (DIR) Post #Azprm9whbeHYJUDmD2 by radiojammor@mastodon.scot
       2025-11-02T10:22:56Z
       
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       Having 5 instead of 6 FPTP wins makes little difference to the math for the SNP. The  divider becomes 6 instead of 7 which means a high list vote is still only going to gain 1 list MSP as it did in 2021.If however 1/3 more SNP1 voted SGP2, the SGP could gain 3 list seats instead of 1 SNP.2/5
       
 (DIR) Post #AzprmGKfrR1S7ZU0PI by radiojammor@mastodon.scot
       2025-11-02T10:23:01Z
       
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       The pro-indy list split could go 1SNP 2SGP MSPs if fewer switched to the SGP, but it remains imperative to increase the SGP list vote to keep out unionists & maximise pro-indy MSPs.This region is the 'weakest' in terms of SNP FPTP wins but even 5 wins still means #SNP1SGP2 wins more.#PIVA3/5
       
 (DIR) Post #AzprmMMfQwBKpUSgLY by radiojammor@mastodon.scot
       2025-11-02T10:23:06Z
       
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       Whilst the SNP may lose a constituency seat in the H&I, they are looking good for one or two in South Scotland.The SNP are expected to take Galloway & West Dumfries & the projection is so close for Dumfriesshire that they could win there as well.This would mean either 7/8 out of 9 FPTP.4/5
       
 (DIR) Post #AzprmRt6tk6VxYgA6q by radiojammor@mastodon.scot
       2025-11-02T10:23:12Z
       
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       With the SNP projected to win more FPTP seats in the region than in 2021, they are not likely to get any list seats due to the gain(s).This makes it all the more important for the pro-indy vote to vote #SNP1SGP2 in South Scotland, to get list SGP MSPs at the expense of unionists.#PIVA5/5