Post AzDcmsRLCR2jrNnydM by shironeko@fedi.tesaguri.club
 (DIR) More posts by shironeko@fedi.tesaguri.club
 (DIR) Post #AzDRwcwkYkdnCxwWxM by mcc@mastodon.social
       2025-10-14T23:54:41Z
       
       1 likes, 1 repeats
       
       A thing I think about.Premises:- Many people in "AI" believe (or claim to) that if you simply upscale the existing neural network models by one more order of magnitude there will be a phase change and it will suddenly start acting like a human, or a God- A huge suite of "AI datacenters" that would upscale by such an order of magnitude are being built- There is a coming economic crash/correction which will likely come before those datacenters come online, and halt their growth.(1/2)
       
 (DIR) Post #AzDRwe5IKT4Ojkwrui by joncruz@mstdn.social
       2025-10-15T00:02:50Z
       
       1 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @mcc hmmm.... echos of the dark fiber left in our cities from the crash a few decades ago
       
 (DIR) Post #AzDRwjLmkaER4LhboO by mcc@mastodon.social
       2025-10-14T23:54:48Z
       
       1 likes, 1 repeats
       
       Conclusion:- There is a plausible future where the AI bubble pops, the size and commonness of large language models go down, and a group of dead-enders forever holds onto a near-millenarian belief we were on the cusp of creating "AGI", or creating God, if only the economic collapse (possibly presented, rather than a natural economic process as backstabbing by a group of luddites) had not stopped the "AI data center" buildout just as it was starting to work(2/2)
       
 (DIR) Post #AzDcmrY2W2o75rvoR6 by glasspusher@beige.party
       2025-10-15T01:55:28Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @mcc I like the “phase change” analogy. Agreed, not going to happen
       
 (DIR) Post #AzDcmsRLCR2jrNnydM by shironeko@fedi.tesaguri.club
       2025-10-15T02:06:46.788053Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @glasspusher @mcc phase change is a actual thing that happens in neural networks, it's just not gonna turn LLM into AGI
       
 (DIR) Post #AzDznvDie6dFiatuaW by glasspusher@beige.party
       2025-10-15T05:35:11Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @shironeko @mcc Ok. I come from the phase change terminology of the physical sciences
       
 (DIR) Post #AzDznwK8XjMN8muYEK by shironeko@fedi.tesaguri.club
       2025-10-15T06:24:39.877832Z
       
       0 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @glasspusher @mcc https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.5.043243 yeah it is pretty much used the same way
       
 (DIR) Post #AzElRBirv5YM2ThE4O by mcc@mastodon.social
       2025-10-15T14:22:34Z
       
       1 likes, 0 repeats
       
       @shironeko @glasspusher wait did I use the word correctly then