Post AyfW14dZLGK4goi3d2 by LanceJZ@mastodon.social
(DIR) More posts by LanceJZ@mastodon.social
(DIR) Post #AydrDwEtaOsV86Dyoy by nixCraft@mastodon.social
2025-09-27T18:27:21Z
1 likes, 4 repeats
The AI bubble is the only thing keeping the US economy together, Deutsche Bank warns: When the bubble bursts, reality will hit far harder than anyone expects https://www.techspot.com/news/109626-ai-bubble-only-thing-keeping-us-economy-together.html#ai
(DIR) Post #AydrQo0dUpd5MxgrNw by RevXenoFact@dobbs.town
2025-09-27T20:01:14Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@MissConstrue @JamesHMcLaren @nixCraft my take as well, maybe worse as so much is vapor. I dont think well see depression per se. But as the pain wont be evenly distibuted for many it wint ve any different.
(DIR) Post #Ayf5yowA972CbpfhT6 by codinghorror@infosec.exchange
2025-09-28T03:01:58Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@nixCraft I'm not sure it will burst that quickly because a lot of the LLM use is incredibly practical and effective, as long as you understand what it is good at. Compare to first tech bubble (pets.com), not enough people on the internet, wildly inadequate shipping locgistics. Compare to crypto bubble: it's all gambling and grifters and bullshit. Is it being over hyped? Yes. is it practical TODAY and getting more practical EVERY DAY? Also yes!
(DIR) Post #Ayf5yqGlC16Yk0JfDE by david_chisnall@infosec.exchange
2025-09-28T09:35:02Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@codinghorror @nixCraft Some of it is useful, but note the point in the article: it is not adding anything to the GDP in terms of productivity. I’ve seen people use LLMs as slightly better interfaces to documentation. Yes, it’s useful, but it isn’t a killer app. People use the, for summarisation but they’re really bad at it and they often miss the key point. Using that in decision making lets you move faster, but in the wrong direction. It takes a while for that to appear and then it’s a problem. People are ‘vibe coding’ business apps, but the ones that work are the kind that you could build in less time with MS PowerApps and no programming ability beyond Excel formulae. Producing moderately bad subtitles is better than having no subtitles. Low-stakes translation was already pretty good pre-LLM and is now better (but still makes ludicrous mistakes and so can’t be trusted in situations where being misunderstood costs money or lives).And all of these use cases are massively subsidised. How many people are willing to pay ten times OpenAI’s current price for LLMs? Inference costs dropping relies on the ML-tailored GPUs having large economies of scale, which relies on large numbers of consumers. Increase the price and that cycle ends. Training costs are increasing and must be amortised over more users, increase the costs and this stops, so you must increase the costs more.I’ve seen estimates that, without VC money being set on fire, a ChatGPT subscription would cost at least $1,000/month. For a thing that doubles employee productivity, that’s an easy sell. For a modest increase, it is an easy ‘no’.And LLMs become obsolete fast. A coding assistant that doesn’t know about new language features and which always uses deprecated or removed APIs is a productivity drain, not a help. A search assistant that has no knowledge of current events past 2025 will rapidly become useless. For translation, this is slower, but language evolves, both in terms of new words and new meanings for words, so these need retraining. For some use cases, RAG helps patch over the limitations of a stale model, but it also drives up the inference costs.And all of that is assuming that the large-scale plagiarism for training these models is legal. At the moment governments are believing the ‘this will add massive amounts to your GDP’ hype from big tech and so are willing to throw creative industries under a bus in aid of better AI models. When they realise that the hype is built on lies, this will change.
(DIR) Post #Ayf5yrfbz6Zt5Mx1aS by codinghorror@infosec.exchange
2025-09-28T09:35:44Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@david_chisnall @nixCraft "People use the, for summarisation but they’re really bad at it and they often miss the key point" not our experience at Discourse with extensive testing, so I question your whole statement on first principles. You have built a strawman argument with zero supporting data.
(DIR) Post #Ayf5ysh4BBKsGAdhUe by david_chisnall@infosec.exchange
2025-09-28T09:42:03Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@codinghorror @nixCraft There are benchmarks in research papers evaluating this, but let’s assume that you are correct and, in your use case, it works well. If OpenAI charged 10x their current amount, would it still be worthwhile? Are you seeing enough revenue from customers that paying that amount would be worth it? If other people decide it isn’t and you’re now paying a larger fraction and the cost is 15x, is the same true? If so, great, you have a use case for LLMs that is sustainable after the bubble bursts.
(DIR) Post #Ayf5ytWT64S6pagkc4 by codinghorror@infosec.exchange
2025-09-28T09:48:27Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@david_chisnall @nixCraft why not have competition, then? Why I am beholden to OpenAI, exactly?
(DIR) Post #Ayf5yuJ2BVIhGDPXJQ by david_chisnall@infosec.exchange
2025-09-28T10:03:03Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@codinghorror @nixCraft Substitute someone else for OpenAI if you want. The compute requirements for teaming an LLM are huge. So huge that the economies of scale mean that whoever has the most paying customers can charge the least (once they’ve finished burning investor money). That’s a textbook example of a natural monopoly.
(DIR) Post #Ayf5yv993kz5rpn9XM by codinghorror@infosec.exchange
2025-09-28T10:04:47Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@david_chisnall @nixCraft this isn't really true, there are tons of viable competitors to OpenAI. Gemini alone is a monster.
(DIR) Post #Ayf5yw5HZbUMm8za9g by mms@mastodon.bsd.cafe
2025-09-28T10:08:35Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@codinghorror @david_chisnall @nixCraft I know of them, google, antropic, Facebook, deep seek, and mistral. Who else is making good foundational models?
(DIR) Post #Ayf5yx3XxXh7n3Bi5Y by jae@darkdork.dev
2025-09-28T10:18:53.598145Z
0 likes, 0 repeats
@mms @codinghorror @david_chisnall @nixCraft deepseek would be one. they're even on aws bedrock. there's fear because china, but in my view poses no more of a risk than shoving data into any of the other endpoints. to the point of the article i don't think we'll bottom out near-term. but if they can't significantly optimize and reduce power requirements as demand continues to increase the house of cards likely will fall.
(DIR) Post #AyfVtHiUpSH2wEIfke by JamesHMcLaren@qoto.org
2025-09-27T18:38:45Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@nixCraft Wow, this is crazy. A thing that has essentially no practical value is inflating the US economy.
(DIR) Post #AyfVwwscF2FRTLmSXY by doragasu@mastodon.sdf.org
2025-09-27T18:53:26Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@nixCraft It's even better, AI is avoiding recession because of the money spent building data centers, not because it generates any value in itself.
(DIR) Post #AyfW14dZLGK4goi3d2 by LanceJZ@mastodon.social
2025-09-27T19:04:47Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@nixCraft so when that pops, the Great Depression 2.0 starts.
(DIR) Post #AyfW5IWBfu5stnGrUu by yacc143@mastodon.social
2025-09-27T19:37:41Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@nixCraft That assumes that by the time that happens, reporting about a crash will not be considered treason by the Glorious Leader.
(DIR) Post #AyfW98Uet8HoxyO09o by nazokiyoubinbou@mastodon.social
2025-09-27T19:52:07Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@nixCraft If true this is more scary than even intended because I'm about 90% sure that the bubble is very close to bursting now...
(DIR) Post #AyfWD6DpH8zV50P24e by galad@mastodon.social
2025-09-27T20:06:07Z
1 likes, 1 repeats
@nixCraft The AI bubble is the sunk cost fallacy in action.
(DIR) Post #AyfWLYsMcolkGTOo0e by xs4me2@mastodon.social
2025-09-27T20:08:10Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@nixCraft Let it happen please, so these bastards go broke…
(DIR) Post #AyfWXRlms4Q9hUzSa0 by ksaj@infosec.exchange
2025-09-27T20:26:21Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@nixCraft Isn't that another way of saying the US will do anything to keep propping it up, no matter the cost?This is a race that is China's for the taking. USA will let that happen?Huge sacrifices are about to be made to keep up the illusion as long as possible.Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain (or the one at the Whitehouse lectern.)
(DIR) Post #AyfWbWHk1biOrZsXNA by alandvalonline@mastodon.social
2025-09-27T20:44:18Z
2 likes, 0 repeats
@nixCraft Just proves my point. AI stands for Artificial Intelligence, but it ALSO stands for "Actual Ignorance".
(DIR) Post #AyfWkpQYDybapzRDiC by lexLohr@chaos.social
2025-09-27T22:09:33Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@nixCraft It is only AI in PowerPoint. In Python, it's large models. In truth, it is creative marketing around statistical models tuned to predict the answer.And the answer is: don't waste so many resources on predicting answers using models that human brains are far better at giving.The attempt to replace human brains was doomed to begin with for any task that required one in the first place.
(DIR) Post #AyfWocwEbGa9GJ4LDs by SpaceLifeForm@infosec.exchange
2025-09-27T22:10:00Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@nixCraft When Deutsche Bank speaks, people listen.They know it is a clusterfuck. Now, they are wondering what are going to get in return for their investments.Maybe they are thinking to pop the bubble before they lose more money.#AI #Insanity #Money
(DIR) Post #AyfWsfW0xbkSPfjRhY by wollman@mastodon.social
2025-09-28T03:19:30Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@nixCraft I have been trying to decrease my exposure to tech this whole year, and it's actually *hard* to do now, because a lot of tech companies are officially classified as something else. An "ex-tech" index fund still has Meta and Google in it because those are considered advertising companies, not "tech". A "social" fund has, I think, all seven of the profoundly antisocial "Magnificent 7".
(DIR) Post #AyfWx0unL4PBwQOXAm by fhekland@social.vivaldi.net
2025-09-28T09:51:33Z
3 likes, 4 repeats
@nixCraft here's a description of how the AI frenzy is currently funded.
(DIR) Post #AyfX53qoJ8iPMZMtk0 by mad@freiburg.social
2025-09-28T07:19:33Z
1 likes, 0 repeats
@nixCraft Reading more and more articles with good reasoning and arguments about the AI bubble bursting is a strong indicator in my eyes.