Post AyeDfkIllFAnCphXBw by michael_w_busch@mastodon.online
(DIR) More posts by michael_w_busch@mastodon.online
(DIR) Post #Aydz3RLOOkYw2zlhVw by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-27T21:26:38Z
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Trump's newest tariff targets are:*Big trucks*Furniture*Cabinets and Bathroom vanities*Name Brand DrugsAnd... I don't hate it? I'm very concerned about the drug tariffs, but the other items are actually good targets for protectionist trade policy in the US. We have domestic cabinet manufacturers in TN and VT and they are struggling. There *is* an issue with "too cheap to ignore" imports. And also these aren't things poor people buy very often. 1/
(DIR) Post #AydzGIzgkrMJulkdTU by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-27T21:28:58Z
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Could someone who understands how this kind of thing is supposed to work have gotten through to the guy?Seems unlikely. But, I'm a little disipointed that these are being panned like the other tariffs that made no sense. You can make a case for these. Is it a good case? The Free Trade fans will say no way. Personally I think shipping cabinets halfway across the world is kind of inefficient. And the drug thing could be bad. Hm.
(DIR) Post #AydzK02n9UuQIhxqbY by DarthAstrius@mastodon.social
2025-09-27T21:29:36Z
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@futurebird I especially agree about the big trucks, given that I live near a big truck manufacturer. Hard disagree about the Name Brand Drugs.
(DIR) Post #AydzZMNcOFEJuz1vEm by SCampbell@mstdn.social
2025-09-27T21:32:21Z
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@futurebird Tariffs can't be both a bargaining chip for negotiation & a spur to investment. Who builds a factory when a tariff may be gone next week? It is the worst of both worlds - higher prices & no increase in factories.
(DIR) Post #Aydza0AuQupbL9OKyu by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-27T21:32:31Z
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@DarthAstrius The perfect tariff target has a struggling domestic industry, employs a lot of people, isn't something like food, clothing, or medicine that people have no choice but to buy. So, more luxury and differ-able goods. Bonus if it's big and bulky and shipping is eating up a lot of the value with the imported goods. This could be... fine? Will it be around long enough to do anything?
(DIR) Post #AydziXXuFEY79fDflo by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-27T21:34:04Z
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@SCampbell His initial moves have set a BAD tone. I'm not running to invest in US furniture makers, and I doubt they will start hiring because of this. Unless it proves to be different from the other chaos.
(DIR) Post #Aydzm5nRMHhAFYBBWi by SCampbell@mstdn.social
2025-09-27T21:34:41Z
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@futurebird You should read Justin Wolfers - economist. He is very good at describing economic impact.
(DIR) Post #AydzuqP5xPrX7HxuT2 by DarthAstrius@mastodon.social
2025-09-27T21:36:16Z
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@futurebird Who knows, honestly.Everything is so uncertain nowadays.
(DIR) Post #Aye0YSIczo09wRpQMi by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-27T21:43:26Z
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@vivtek Some TN cabinet guys gave him big donations. This might be their ask. An ask that has been perhaps wrongly ignored for decades by free-trade-drunk liberal and right wing admins. The answer for all tariffs has been NO for everything and maybe it went too far IMHO.So he could have stumbled into this through corruption.
(DIR) Post #Aye0zEnBK6mhrutGSG by btuftin@social.coop
2025-09-27T21:48:14Z
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@futurebird A major problem is that they don't represent a cohesive economic plan with political support. I'm sure in part he's doing these as exec. orders due to ego, but is also because, even with a GOP double majority, he couldn't get support for this as US economic policy. So they tariffs are vulnerable to legal challenges and to the Ds succeeding in the midterms. They're also rushed. US production can't just materialize in a week, so it's all just a surprise sales tax.1/2
(DIR) Post #Aye1VUSQcEY5iiYvmC by btuftin@social.coop
2025-09-27T21:51:15Z
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@futurebird Giving him credit here assumes a rational decision process I just don't see evidence for. Like everything else is just an idea placed in his head by the latest person who got access to him and said something that fit in with his weird world view, or a program he watched on Fox. 2/2
(DIR) Post #Aye1VVKJNteOPplxlQ by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-27T21:54:05Z
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@btuftin True. I just wish we could talk about trade policy without all of the free trade absolutism. First of all because I don't think it works, but also when big news channels act like no tariff could ever be good they loose a lot of credibility with people who have seen how things have gone for the losers under these policies. Things have gone badly. One can point to a higher GDP, but there are towns that have never recovered from free trade. People hate it.
(DIR) Post #Aye1cSbDvGGrz603Si by graydon@canada.masto.host
2025-09-27T21:55:20Z
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@futurebird @vivtek Tariffs are generally destructive.For them to be NOT destructive, they have to be assisting import replacement (=making something you currently import), time-limited, and not result in retaliatory tariffs from trading partners. There isn't any framework for that, and it takes really stable trade policy to make it work. (You need a stable five to ten years minimum.)It may help to think of tariffs as taxes that could be collected in pre-modern times.
(DIR) Post #Aye20FZ62FzMVdLgQa by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-27T21:59:38Z
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@btuftin In fact, until recently there was cabinet manufacturing in the Bronx, tile floors too. But over the past two decades Home Depot has become the only place you can buy cabinets unless you want a luxury job done by the tiny firms in the village. (Think 20k remodel vs. 50k remodel)Home depot has very limited selection of mostly low quality imported cabinets. The Bronx manufactures hung on by doing high end custom luxury work but they are gone now.
(DIR) Post #Aye2MyqsLCPhKnVHG4 by jakemiller@federate.social
2025-09-27T22:03:41Z
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@futurebird @btuftin There are furniture chains entirely built on Chinese furniture imports, IIRC. And the furniture tariff probably hurts IKEA. Small manufacturers can’t realistically scale up to serve the big stores, or match IKEA pricing. But it is always worth asking why it’s happening. My best guess is that he’s angry at some owner of a private company that imports a lot of furniture.
(DIR) Post #Aye2xCj4EchYmz7kuW by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-27T22:10:20Z
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@jakemiller @btuftin They can't scale up fast, but furniture isn't the kind of thing that people can't just wait and buy later. It's not like food or something.
(DIR) Post #Aye38vhRMcN3SSxDo8 by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-27T22:12:27Z
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@graydon @vivtek "Tariffs are generally destructive."Yes. If you look at the GDP level, and if you are thinking long term. But also sometimes I think they can be fine. Shipping big bulky goods halfway around the world to save a few bucks on labor costs is kind of ... it's not efficient.
(DIR) Post #Aye3QVkIbAJgAyftaq by burnitdown@beige.party
2025-09-27T22:15:32Z
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@futurebird @graydon @vivtek no matter which way anyone "reforms" capitalism, it will always be war on the working class. "free trade" isn't good because labour and goods can move but workers cannot due to nation state borders. "pay to trade" isn't good either because it still puts more money in the pockets of the bosses and will not undermine wage exploitation.
(DIR) Post #Aye3bfSqnzX9VFpjTE by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-27T22:17:38Z
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@btuftin Home Depot monopoly on kitchens and bathrooms in the greater NY region is kind of disgusting.Not that I expect to see anyone care about monopolies any time soon. I will be over in the corner singing old US Steel Union songs sadly if anyone needs me.
(DIR) Post #Aye3rhfIOI6cxhIhs0 by SCampbell@mstdn.social
2025-09-27T22:20:23Z
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@futurebird It is unfortunate when the words of POTUS become of no value b/c they change from day to day & directives on trade appear on Truth Social or X instead of going through Congress.
(DIR) Post #Aye3ymFFlF7XC3Ubj6 by graydon@canada.masto.host
2025-09-27T22:21:48Z
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@futurebird @vivtek "Externality" is an accounting term for "a cost we can make a diffuse group pay" and ocean shipping is mostly externalities. The real cost of decarbonized shipping would drive efficiency; tariffs not so much, because they're also externalities.(Once the incumbents decided that labour was a cost, their goal became never paying for labour. Which creates incentives to move production as close to slavery conditions as possible. Much rationalization follows.)
(DIR) Post #Aye42PeBill0GXtCKW by btuftin@social.coop
2025-09-27T22:22:26Z
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@futurebird Sure, but people hate paying higher prices more. Personally I think the cost of transportation should reflect the carbon impact, and off-shoring to take advantage of workers in other countries having lower standards of living should be fought, but there's no political will for that in the US. Using tariffs to bring back manufacturing would take years, and just one "let's drop the tariffs" blip would set it back immediately. 1/2
(DIR) Post #Aye55i7vZQnSP0w6gi by futurebird@sauropods.win
2025-09-27T22:34:14Z
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@Wyatt_H_Knott @btuftin I used to go to anyplace else but now all the hardware shops are closed, all the locksmiths and keymakers too. It's just home depot who claims they have a locksmith but they guy they sent knew nothing and was trying to follow a wikihow to article.
(DIR) Post #AyeCSeEWubGgfNuPAW by Smoljaguar@spacey.space
2025-09-27T23:56:49Z
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@futurebird tariffing based on "national security" reasons makes no sense to me, his claimed tariffing authority seems clearly illegal
(DIR) Post #AyeDfkIllFAnCphXBw by michael_w_busch@mastodon.online
2025-09-28T00:10:17Z
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@futurebird I submit that if Donald Trump should accidentally order a tariff that is not outrageous; that is neither a defense nor an excuse for his doing so illegally and arbitrarily.