Post AxyfBAbdbDDoF4wCY4 by clarkiestar@mas.to
(DIR) More posts by clarkiestar@mas.to
(DIR) Post #Aamez0dQqhd74EFyrI by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2023-10-15T05:03:42Z
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A quick vote number comparison between preliminary 2023 election results;https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2023/election-night-results-for-the-2023-general-election/... and the 2020 final results;https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2020/2020-general-election-official-results/Keep in mind there are still about half a million specials to be counted.National:Up 136,959Labour:Down 840,000Greens:Up 14,000ACT:Down 16,953NZ First:Up 70,064Te Pāti MāoriUp 24,761TOP:Up 3,022New Conservative:Down 39,050#Election2023
(DIR) Post #AamkkMEgr2XvRV54Jk by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2023-10-15T06:08:15Z
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Just focusing on the 6 parties that will get MPs based on the preliminary results, there was a swing to the right bloc of about 200,000 votes. You could count TOP, on the basis of their cup of tea proposal to Luxon for Ilam, but then you'd really have to count the collapse of NC (the next biggest vote after TOP in 2020), so the swing looks even smaller.The missing 600,000 from Labour's 2020 vote is about the number of special votes still to be counted, which I expect to skew left, as usual.
(DIR) Post #AamktVKeP9DQGBEKpM by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2023-10-15T06:09:56Z
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Again, the NatACTs didn't win this election by gaining significantly more votes. ACT actually lose votes. Labour lost it by offering nothing to motivate the left to vote. If they want to remain relevant, they need to take a careful look at their 2020 and 2023 policy platforms, and results, and correct accordingly.
(DIR) Post #AammJUJAvwIiZHUgN6 by RedRobyn@mastodon.nz
2023-10-15T06:25:35Z
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@strypey I think that's the gap between the newshub poll suggesting over half of us want some form of capital gains or wealth tax and the majority of the vote going right. Obviously neither poll is a complete sample, but the self selected electoral poll misses a particular bunch of people.I suspect Labour focus grouped some leftish Nat voters in 2020, and found a bunch of them prepared to say "we'll vote for you so you don't need the greens if you don't do CGT, we don't like their tax ideas"
(DIR) Post #Aammxl5LyZv0BVEOzw by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2023-10-15T06:33:07Z
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@RedRobyn > I suspect Labour focus grouped some leftish Nat voters in 2020, and found a bunch of them prepared to say "we'll vote for you so you don't need the greens if you don't do CGT, we don't like their tax ideas"Probably, but why didn't it work for them in 2023? I suspect it's because the refusal to do CGT was seen as an aberration in an others strong left platform. Not in this campaign. It was weak tea policy (GST off produce? Please) and pandering to the conservative right throughout.
(DIR) Post #AamnzPRnUqW1bo52p6 by RedRobyn@mastodon.nz
2023-10-15T06:44:34Z
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@strypey It couldn't work because they are asking the wrong group of people for support. If you convinced the swinging centre to vote for you by being Nat lite with a charismatic leader who's lead you through a pandemic, then you need to give them even more to stop them swinging back. And there's no way they could convincingly argue for fixing child poverty, or the health system, or the housing crisis when they refuse to talk fair tax. The left didn't lose so much s Labour lost the left.
(DIR) Post #AamocAdwTJ3CzLFAsC by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2023-10-15T06:51:38Z
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@RedRobyn > The left didn't lose so much s Labour lost the leftBang on.Some Labour numpty accused me of supporting the right a couple of weeks ago, when I pointed out that Labour would have to do a wealth tax to remain in govt. Both Greens and TPM had said in public debates that a wealth tax was a bottom line, so...The left didn't walk away from Labour. Labour walked away from the left in 1984, and some on the left *still* haven't noticed.
(DIR) Post #AamqcHy37PbG7g6h9M by RedRobyn@mastodon.nz
2023-10-15T07:14:01Z
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@strypey Those bottom lines def a problem for them keeping swing voters, coupled with the fear tactics. I'm afraid I have a pearl clutching suspicion that a bunch of the left vote couldn't stomach voting green or TPM because of te Tiriti so just didn't vote.But the most important left Labour have lost is in themselves. Robertson and Hopkins used to attend demos demanding free education. Now they preside over tertiary funding cuts. Ardern was the president of a socialist youth union. And now?
(DIR) Post #Aan00EmZVm7MmXEV3g by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2023-10-15T08:59:14Z
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@RedRobyn> the most important left Labour have lost is in themselves. Robertson and Hopkins used to attend demos demanding free education. Now they preside over tertiary funding cuts.Robertson wanted to do the wealth tax, as did David Parker. Chippy overruled them like the bumbling clown he is. A lot of the centre-right carperbaggers (eg Nash) had exposed themselves as corrupt, self-selving cloacae. It was the perfect time for Labour to tack towards the Greens and TPM. But no.
(DIR) Post #Aan038eIluSId0kR9s by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2023-10-15T08:59:39Z
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@RedRobynGuess Chippy felt like it was exercise time and that Labour had a need to open their legs...
(DIR) Post #AxyZzIZ9g9jJgSIR5k by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2025-09-07T22:02:03Z
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It's shocking to me that Hipkins is still party leader, after leading Labour through an ejection where it lost about 800,000 votes.David Cunlife - who also had only a year in the job before his first election as leader - was ousted for a drop of about 10,000 votes (614,937604,535). On the other side of the House, the Nats vote under Bill English in 2017 actually went up by more than 20,000 on their 2014 result. He still got rolled as leader for losing the election.(1/2)
(DIR) Post #AxyaMh3mmDnQJLmN96 by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2025-09-07T22:06:49Z
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Why did Hipkins not get rolled within a few months of this unmitigated disaster? Is 2020s Labour really such a talent vacuum that he's the best they can offer?If only everyone who votes Red to keep the Blues out, even though they vastly prefer Green policy, would actually vote as if the election was a referendum on policy. Rather than a horse race, where a vote is a bet on who's going to "win" based on polls.(2/2)
(DIR) Post #AxydAC9OAitopm8EpE by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2025-09-07T22:38:10Z
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Coda: I still think election law should make it illegal to publish poll results in the 3 months before an election. For the same reason we ban campaigning on election day; it distorts the outcome.Without a regular supply of polls to obsess over, political reporters couldn't cover an election like a slow-motion horse race. So they'd be forced to gird their loins, and talk about .... (gulp, deep breath) ... policy differences between the parties (shock! Horror!).#PolicyNZ
(DIR) Post #AxyfBAbdbDDoF4wCY4 by clarkiestar@mas.to
2025-09-07T23:00:43Z
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@strypey I really like this idea
(DIR) Post #AxyiBndUmozf9bnZOy by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2025-09-07T23:34:26Z
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@airshipper> meanwhile labour says what they’re not going to doLabour's standard policy statement for the last 2 years has been;'We're not announcing our election policy today'Meanwhile the Greens are releasing independently-costed alternative budgets every year. Labour is an empty box with strong brand loyalty.At this point the only thing keeping the NatLabs in power is Boomers living long and mostly voting, and Millennials and Zooners mostly voting No Idea Party.
(DIR) Post #AxyrVdrjilZEENzoUi by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2025-09-08T01:18:54Z
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As promised earlier, updated vote number comparison using the 2023 final election results;https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2023/official-results-for-the-2023-general-election/... and the 2020 final results;https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2020/2020-general-election-official-results/National:Up +346,741Labour:Down -676,310Greens:Up +104,129ACT:Up +27,379NZ First:Up +98,404Te Pāti MāoriUp +54,341TOP:Up +19,881New Conservative:Down -38,071My apologies for taking so long to get to this.#Election2023
(DIR) Post #AxysPldY0zyMY87cWW by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2025-09-08T01:29:04Z
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After all votes were counted, the swing to the right was more than twice what it appeared to be on the night; 472,524. This is about 2/3 of the votes that left Labour. So embarrassingly for me and my election night reckons, it does suggest a huge swing to the right. Even when you include the collapse of the NC vote.The ACT vote went up in the end, not down. But only by about a quarter of the Greens', whose vote grew by 50% on 2020, and Winston First's whose voted more than doubled. Ouch.
(DIR) Post #AxytymV0tu9bJVOEoS by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2025-09-08T01:46:36Z
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Another really intriguing result; this was a good election for most parties outside the NatLab duopoly. With the exception of the New Conservatives (and Cannabis Party whose vote was static), fringe parties all grew their vote. Plus a bunch of new ones clocked up a few thousand votes.(1/?)
(DIR) Post #Axyulnkh1zPtOB6Afg by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2025-09-08T01:55:27Z
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Vote number comparison for fringe parties using the 2023 final election results;https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2023/official-results-for-the-2023-general-election/... and the 2020 final results;https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2020/2020-general-election-official-results/NZ Loyal (new):Up +34,456 NewZeal (ran in 2020 as ONE):Up +7988Freedoms NZ (combining Vision NZ and Outdoors parties from 2020):Up +2081Democracy NZ (new):Up +6,781Animal Justice Party (new):Up +5,016Leighton Baker (new):Up +2,629Women's Rights Party (new):Up +2,511(2/?)
(DIR) Post #AxyvJctjtPeZZUSVPM by strypey@mastodon.nzoss.nz
2025-09-08T02:01:34Z
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Social Credit, TEA, Sustainable NZ and HeartlandNZ all collapsed after the 2020 election. It's anyone's guess where their combined 6000 or so votes might have gone in 2023.But if I had to guess, I'd say SC and SNZ's votes would have mainly gone back to the Greens or to TOP, and TEA and HNZ votes mainly to ACT, Winston First, or one of the cooker parties.(3/3)