Post AxMFSKpspzQK4qeFPs by ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us
(DIR) More posts by ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us
(DIR) Post #AxM7g0gLlZMdzaCNqC by ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us
2025-08-19T20:13:02Z
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Hmmm.... there's been some discussion here about the possibility of an impending AI crash... and now there's been a dip prompted (in part?) by an MIT paper which suggested almost all AI firms will make zero return - the Q. is whether this is a blip or the beginning of an 'emperor has no clothes' moment?The next couple of days might be interesting?@h4890 #AI #StockMarket h/t FT
(DIR) Post #AxM7g20Er6rq5YVmTo by h4890@liberdon.com
2025-08-20T08:46:22Z
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@ChrisMayLA6 Interesting! Do you have a link to the paper? I think it is fairly obvious that the earnings potential for ChatGPT-like services is extremely limited. Add to that, that there are numerous open source models that anyone can run and use, which come fairly close to the paid versions, so facebook really play the "commoditizing your complement" card here. I think there will be many small events compounding to setup the fall. Maybe nvidia will miss more earnings forecasts? That
(DIR) Post #AxM7oRhVCC2k6blBkO by h4890@liberdon.com
2025-08-20T08:47:53Z
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@ChrisMayLA6 could be another snowball setting off the avalanche. I'm still trying to figure out who would benefit, but so far, the best thing I've come up with is to _not_ invest in the stock market 6-18 months before the crash, and then use the excess cash to pick up cheap traditional companies during the crash. Since I work in technology, I am very bad at investing in technology, since I am too far removed from public opinion when it comes to which companies are good or not. =/
(DIR) Post #AxM8GIRFE4BxUIR5fs by Quantillion@mstdn.io
2025-08-20T01:36:13Z
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@ChrisMayLA6 @h4890 The downhill slide of any eventual AI profitability has been on the cards for a while now. The reaction of the big "AI" corps has been to be "even bigger" by putting their foot on the gas, investing *even more* & thus accelerating downhill even faster! If it happens this term, I believe US money will bail out the most govt-friendly (expect excessive grovelling) which will swallow the others but IMO the clever money is in China.
(DIR) Post #AxM8GJwTdQlk9S3Xzk by h4890@liberdon.com
2025-08-20T08:52:55Z
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@Quantillion @ChrisMayLA6 Yes! And note how the giants force AI into each and every product they own, despite the fact that the customers aren't asking for it. Google, Microsoft and Facebook have other revenue streams, so although they will lose money, they will of course survive. But I think companies such as OpenAI and the others who _only_ have LLM:s, those are the ones who risk being wiped out. On the other hand, they don't provide any real value, so I do not think that
(DIR) Post #AxM8LruEmlNOw7ecGO by h4890@liberdon.com
2025-08-20T08:53:57Z
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@Quantillion @ChrisMayLA6 the spillover from them collapsing will spread that far. So Microsoft, Google and Facebook losing will drag down the rest of the market, but to me it feels like a regular crash of say 10%-25% for regular companies.
(DIR) Post #AxMFSKpspzQK4qeFPs by ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us
2025-08-20T10:13:31Z
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@h4890 sadly, no link to the MIT paper in the FT piece... yes, judging sentiment is difficult when you're too near - I can see that; but as stock markets are driven by sentiment, that's got to be the key skill
(DIR) Post #AxMFbJe6dBxizcQCtE by ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us
2025-08-20T10:15:09Z
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@h4890 @Quantillion Yes, that's evident - its a tech that is being forced on us due to supply not so much demand
(DIR) Post #AxMSP3qkpizNvopBwW by h4890@liberdon.com
2025-08-20T12:38:38Z
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@ChrisMayLA6 True. Well, there are a few other strategies as well, but that is definitely one of them (riding wave). Other options are to find the gold, and have enormous patience and hope that the company will survive (investing ahead of the wave). My personal favourite, being contrarian in nature, is to invest after the wave when no one is interested. =) And my other strategy is extreme long term focus, by just buying protected government oligopolies (banks), when they are distressed
(DIR) Post #AxMSQS6g8GpJS6w7hg by h4890@liberdon.com
2025-08-20T12:38:54Z
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@ChrisMayLA6 and cash in nicely on the dividends and reinvested dividends.
(DIR) Post #AxMSoq6yXDT4qshi5I by h4890@liberdon.com
2025-08-20T12:43:13Z
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@ChrisMayLA6 @Quantillion Amen! As I've written elsewhere, the only scenario when I've used AI successfully, is to generate government policy documents that are forced on me as well. So it has a beautiful kind of symmetry to it. AI is forced on me, and used successfully to generate documents no one will ever read, and this is forced on me by the government. ;)
(DIR) Post #AxMV3GHgDpIxzHiRFY by ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us
2025-08-20T13:08:17Z
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@h4890 Agreed, some form of buying the dips (or slump) is clearly the best way of maximising returns in a medium term volatile market
(DIR) Post #AxN9t2u3DKpDiAuWxM by h4890@liberdon.com
2025-08-20T20:45:51Z
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@ChrisMayLA6 Yes. Well, at least it seems to be the way that is best adapted to my psychology, and the fact that I do work so I don't follow the market day to day. In fact, I try to follow the market no more often than once a month or so. But dips are good, because newspapers start screaming when they happen, so it is impossible to miss it! =)
(DIR) Post #AxNCmprf4tGZOkWWK8 by ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us
2025-08-20T21:18:20Z
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@h4890 Ha ha, yes.... and of course while it make perfect sense to buy the dips, many non-professional investors cannot see that - they buy the narrative of disaster & don't see (as the canny do) in the decline, if timed right (and provided you can be patient), its a relatively sure way to see major returns down the road....
(DIR) Post #AxNEfFrYjTzfcdzMH2 by h4890@liberdon.com
2025-08-20T21:39:24Z
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@ChrisMayLA6 True. But it does require a certain level of mental pain tolerance. I have bought on dips, only for the stock to continue down 10%-20%, and then bought more. Most of the time this has worked out good. But there are a few examples when it didn't. ;)
(DIR) Post #AxNtN5JFKN2HndOSNk by ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us
2025-08-21T05:15:26Z
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@h4890 well of course no investment strategy can be 100% successful.... or at least not in the real world
(DIR) Post #AxOIr87NwmRs3IGk4G by h4890@liberdon.com
2025-08-21T10:01:04Z
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@ChrisMayLA6 Sigh... sadly true. Happy would be the day when my investments are 100% successful! ;)